IFPRI Datasets

Changes in height-for-age of Egyptian children from 1995 to 2014: Implications for improving child health outcomes

Background
Stunting is a serious health problem in Egypt. Stunting rates and height-for-age z-score (HAZ) distributions changed notably in Egypt over time, yet the factors that led to these changes remain unknown. This study examines the factors associated with these changes and provides important considerations for designing interventions to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of ending all forms of malnutrition by 2030.

Methods
Leveraging data from Egypt’s Demographic and Health Survey for the years 1995, 2003, and 2014, we employ a Recentered Influence Function (RIF) approach that goes beyond the conventional way of measuring stunting as a binary indicator to examine changes across the entire HAZ distribution. The RIF decomposes changes in the HAZ distribution over time into differences attributable to changes in the levels of the determinants of nutrition (covariate effects) and in the strength of the association between these determinants and HAZ (coefficient effects).

Results
The stylized facts show a puzzling increase in stunting rates despite improvements in the level of the determinants of nutrition. Our RIF results attribute the change in stunting rates and other parts of the HAZ distribution primarily to changes in the association between the determinants of nutrition and HAZ (coefficient effects) rather than in the level of the determinants (covariate effects). The results also show that the determinants of nutrition could have heterogeneous impacts at different quantiles of the HAZ distribution.

Conclusion
To reduce stunting rates and achieve the SDG of ending malnutrition, our findings highlight the need for targeted interventions. Interventions should be geographically targeted, promote gender and income equality, improve maternal nutrition, and expand access to better sanitation facilities. This is in addition to wealth redistribution and reforming Egypt’s subsidy program to focus on nutritious food.

Associations between exposure to nutrition, WASH interventions and children’s academic performance in Ethiopia: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Poor nutrition and inadequate WASH (water, sanitation, and hygiene) practices significantly impact children’s health, nutrition, and cognitive development, especially in low-income settings. These factors further aggravate the incidence of undernutrition, weaken the immune system, increase susceptibility to illnesses and reduce cognitive performance. Evidence on the effectiveness of existing WASH interventions is needed.

Objective

This review evaluated the effectiveness of nutritional and WASH interventions on the academic performance of children in Ethiopia.

Methods

A systematic search of Cochrane, DOAJ, Google Scholar, and PubMed (2010–2024) was conducted using MeSH terms and keywords related to WASH. Two independent reviewers screened studies and extracted data. Eligible studies included cross-sectional and cohort studies on Ethiopian schoolchildren with quantifiable academic outcomes. The JBI SUMARI was used to assess bias, and the GRADE approach was used to evaluate evidence quality. The meta-analysis used a random-effects model in Stata and reported pooled RRs with 95% CIs. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses examined moderators such as study design, intervention type, and sample size.

Results

A total of 19 studies, 16 cross-sectional (n= 16) and three prospective (n= 3) cohort studies with a total of 9034 participants, were included. The random effects model revealed a significant improvement in academic performance among students receiving both nutrition and WASH, with a pooled large positive effect size of 2.05 (95% CI: 1.26, 2.28; I2=). In the subgroup meta-analysis, the effect of the intervention was more positive among those who skipped breakfast (3.47, 95% CI: 0.47, 6.47), chronic iodine deficiency (4.49, 95% CI: 4.08, 4.90), food insecurity (2.810, 95% CI: 1.281, 4.339), and underweight (0.61, 95% CI: 0.46, 0.75).

Conclusion

Despite moderate variability and some risk of bias, the evidence supports the integration of comprehensive nutrition and WASH programs into school health initiatives. Future research should focus on long-term effects and cost-effectiveness.

Farmers’ preferences and willingness to accept incentives for adopting sustainable agricultural practices in India

Sustainable agricultural practices are increasingly promoted to mitigate the impacts of climate change on agriculture. However, adoption at the farm level remains limited, often due to trade-offs between tradable and non-tradable ecosystem services. This study examines farmers’ preferences for resource conservation practices and their willingness to accept incentive payments for their adoption in the Indian state of Punjab, where rice has become the most important crop despite its cultivation being unsupportive of its climatic conditions. Following the discrete choice experiment approach, the study included 500 farmers with the following attributes: ecosystem service benefits, income compensation, and carbon credit price. The findings reveal that farmers showed a strong preference for adopting improved farm practices. Saving water and avoiding residue burning are the two most preferred ecosystem benefits by the farmers. However, farmers’ preferences are strongly influenced by factors including carbon credit prices, income compensation, socioeconomic characteristics, and their risk aversion capacity. The estimation of extended random parameter logit (RPL) indicated that switching to direct rice seeding requires compensation of Rs. 29,223/ha and Rs. 29,178/ha for reallocating area from rice to legumes, ceteris paribus. These findings are crucial for policymakers in restructuring the existing incentive structure to accelerate the adoption of resource conservation practices in India.

“If you want to have sex you can, if you don’t, you don’t have to”: A qualitative evaluation of the Unite for a Better Life couples program to prevent intimate partner violence in rural Ethiopia

Background
Gender-transformative programing targeting couples is an important strategy to reduce intimate partner violence (IPV), but questions around efficacy and safety remain. This qualitative study explores indications of change and unintended consequences of the gender-transformative Unite for a Better Life (UBL) intervention, using data from the couples’ and control arms of a cluster randomized controlled trial (cRCT) in Ethiopia. The cRCT found no impact on physical and psychological IPV and weak evidence of reductions in sexual IPV in the couples’ arm.

Methods
We analyzed 33 facilitator feedback questionnaires and 29 in-depth interviews (IDIs) among couples conducted approximately 30-months post intervention; 14 participated in UBL delivered to couples, and 15 were from the control arm. IDIs were conducted separately with each member of the couple and analyzed thematically in Dedoose to explore indications of change attributed to UBL.

Results
UBL couples attributed improved household task-sharing, communication, and joint decision-making to the program. Men and women developed more gender-equitable attitudes, leading to more fulfilling relationships. Additionally, most participants in violent relationships reported that UBL led to a reduction or cessation of physical and psychological IPV, and a complete cessation of sexual IPV. These effects were largely attributed to shifts at the individual level for men. Men developed better anger management skills, reduced their alcohol consumption, and increased their knowledge around the consequences of IPV. At the relational level, couples reported increased communication, particularly around sexual desire, and reduced conflict. Additionally, participants reported normative shifts, including decreased acceptance of IPV. There were no reports of changes in control participants nor of major unintended consequences.

Conclusions
When delivered to couples, UBL shows promise in shifting individual-level male factors and relational dynamics and reducing conflict and IPV. This suggests that engaging men in couples can be an effective and safe strategy for IPV prevention.

Tajikistan Rural Household Survey (TRHS) 2025

The Tajikistan Rural Household Survey (TRHS) is a survey data collection effort led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Tajik Academy of Agricultural Sciences (TAAS). It is an ambitious attempt to generate data critical to filling pertinent evidence gaps on the livelihoods and the resilience of rural households in Tajikistan. The TRHS interviewed 3,267 households in the country's three most populated regions (Sughd Region, Khatlon Region, and Districts of Republic Subordination).

The in-person household survey includes a household-level questionnaire that was administered to any knowledgeable adult household member. An accompanying individual-level questionnaire was administered in private to one randomly selected household member, aged 18 to 54 years old. In households were no adult was present in the specified age range, another household member 55 years or older was allowed to respond to the individual-level questionnaire. The dataset also consists of a brief enumerator survey.

Uncovering the climate vulnerability of China’s poverty alleviation frontiers

Food subsidies in India: Revisiting the estimates

There is a view that the fis­cal bur­den of food sub­si­dies in India is un­sus­tain­able. Yet pop­u­lar de­bate and dis­cus­sion around the costs of these food sub­si­dies, rel­a­tive to their ben­e­fits, are mis­lead­ing for two rea­sons. First, they typ­i­cally treat re­ported bud­getary sub­sidy es­ti­mates—i.e. the fis­cal cost to the gov­ern­ment of the dis­tri­b­u­tion of food via ra­tion shops—as equiv­a­lent to “trans­fers” to ben­e­fi­cia­ries. Sec­ondly, they tend to focus ex­clu­sively on con­sumers. In doing so, they ne­glect the two-part na­ture of the food dis­tri­b­u­tion sys­tem, which in­cludes pay­ments to farm­ers at the time of pro­cure­ment. This paper ex­am­ines ways of mea­sur­ing the costs and value of the food sub­sidy. We pre­sent es­ti­mates that com­bine the im­plicit value of ben­e­fits to con­sumers aris­ing from the re­duced price of grain sold to con­sumers via ra­tion shops, with im­plicit ben­e­fits to farm­ers, in terms of the price dif­fer­ence be­tween what farm­ers are paid by the gov­ern­ment and what they would have ob­tained in the open mar­ket. This ap­proach shows that each rupee of the “food sub­sidy” re­ported in gov­ern­ment ac­counts rep­re­sents a trans­fer worth Rs 1.29 to con­sumers and farm­ers, on av­er­age, over the pe­riod 2001–02 to 2022–23. That is, each rupee trans­ferred to these groups is as­so­ci­ated with a cost of Rs 0.79 to the gov­ern­ment.

C’est la vie!: Mixed impacts of an edutainment television series in West Africa

Edutainment is a promising tool for changing behavior at scale, yet little is known about how to maximize impacts. We undertake an experimental evaluation of a popular West African television series, C’est la vie!, delivered through film clubs targeted at adolescent girls and young women in rural Senegal. We examine impacts on violence against women and girls and sexual and reproductive health. Results show C’est la vie! improved knowledge on both domains three months after film clubs ended, as well as violence-related attitudes nine months later, however, had no impact on behaviors. We investigate design components intended to strengthen impacts, generally finding no additional impacts from post-screening discussions, engaging men, and podcasts. Our findings suggest that edutainment is an engaging way to reach viewers on sensitive themes, however more evidence is needed on how to effectively deliver edutainment content for sustained behavior change at scale.

Using method of moments quantile regression to examine the influences of fishery operations and their ramifications for marine water contamination

This study aims to investigate the dynamic impact of the fishing industry on marine water contamination in 27 European countries by taking into account the roles of fisheries output, the use of fossil fuels, economic development, and governance between 1990 and 2022. The results, which used a novel technique called the Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) in addition to factors that are fixed effect, demonstrated that, at most quantiles, there was a significant positive correlation between fishing production and marine water contamination. At the earliest and latest quantiles, fishery production significantly exacerbates marine water contamination, with a smaller impact at the lowest and a larger impact at the highest. Additionally, the data indicate that affluent EU14 countries produce more fish than developing EU13 countries, which has a significant and negative impact on the contamination of marine water. Marine water contamination from the usage of fossil fuels has increased significantly in the EU13 developing countries as compared to the EU14 wealthy countries. Policymakers can reduce marine water contamination in EU14 and EU13 countries by using eco-friendly fishing gear, more sustainable fishing methods, and energy technologies like wave and tidal power.

Political economy of planting for food and jobs input subsidy policy process in Ghana: An application of the Kaleidoscope Model

The Planting for Food and Jobs (PFJ) input subsidy policy was Ghana’s flagship agricultural programme from 2017 to 2025, designed to increase agricultural productivity, enhance food security, create jobs, and improve rural livelihoods through targeted support to smallholder farmers. Despite its prominence, there has been little systematic analysis of the political economy of the policy process that shaped it. This study applies the Kaleidoscope Model of Policy Change (KM), a framework developed for analysing development policy processes, to examine how the PFJ input subsidy policy was placed on the agenda, designed, adopted, and implemented. A qualitative research design was employed, involving 50 key informant interviews with policymakers, programme implementers, farmer-based organisations, and development partners, alongside two focus group discussions with farmers. Data were coded and analysed thematically using the KM framework to identify drivers, enablers, and constraints across the different stages of the policy process. The findings indicate that focusing events and policy coalitions were crucial in placing PFJ on the agenda. Policy design was influenced by the urgency of addressing declining productivity, ideological factors, and cost–benefit assessments. Adoption was shaped by the authority of advocates, the limited resistance of veto players, and favourable political timing, reflecting the perception that presidential initiatives often become policy priorities. Implementation, although constrained by budget shortfalls and logistical challenges, benefited from institutional capacity, budgetary allocations, and sustained advocacy. Overall, PFJ reached its target number of beneficiaries, raised productivity, enhanced food security, created jobs, and reduced dependence on food imports, despite only 69% of planned resources being released. However, limited tailored support for youth and women remains a key gap. The study demonstrates the value of political economy analysis for agricultural policy and recommends structured engagement with the private sector in subsidized input delivery from agenda setting through to implementation.

The impact of a continuum of care intervention from prevention to treatment on child wasting compared to usual community group activities: A cluster randomized controlled trial in Mali

Background
Child wasting is associated with a high mortality risk and remains a persistent public health challenge.

Objective
This study aimed to evaluate the impact of an intervention strengthening the continuum of care of child wasting from prevention, screening, and referral to treatment in Mali.

Methods
A two-arm cluster-randomized controlled trial was conducted using two study designs to evaluate impact and pathways: i) a longitudinal study of children enrolled at 6 months (n=2,324) with monthly follow-up for 3–6 months to assess wasting prevalence (primary outcome); ii) a longitudinal study of all children 6–23 months admitted to outpatient therapeutic programs (OTP; n=7,104) assessing recovery and adherence. Additional OTP coverage surveys were conducted at the end of the study. In both study arms, nutrition activity support groups (NASG) screened children for wasting and provided caregiver behavior change communication (BCC). The intervention arm additionally received small-quantity lipid-based nutrient supplements (SQ-LNS), child-centered BCC, family-led screening, and follow-up on referred wasting cases to support OTP admission and adherence.

Results
The intervention did not impact wasting prevalence but reduced the incidence of wasting (relative risk (RR): 0.80, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.64, 0.99) and severe acute malnutrition (SAM) (RR: 0.71, 95%CI: 0.57, 0.89). The intervention significantly increased wasting screening coverage by 37 pp (95%CI: 31, 44) and SAM treatment coverage by 15 pp (95%CI: 0.35, 30). No impacts of the intervention on OTP recovery or adherence were found. NASGs often replaced the monthly home visits with community gatherings to deliver the intervention. NASGs also often distributed SQ-LNS to children they identified with wasting instead of referring them to the OTP.

Conclusions
Strengthening the continuum of care of wasting through community groups reduced the incidence of wasting and SAM and improved screening coverage, which translated into a modest gain in SAM treatment coverage.

Adding small quantity lipid-based nutrient supplements to an enhanced homestead food production program improves child hemoglobin, iron and vitamin A status in rural Burkina Faso: A cluster randomized controlled trial

Background
Enhanced homestead food production programs (EHFP) including nutrition behavior change communication and women’s empowerment activities have limited impacts on child nutrition. This may be due to short program duration or the absence of interventions to improve water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) and access to nutritious foods.

Objective
We assessed impacts on child anemia, micronutrient status and anthropometry of prior village exposure to an EHFP, and of adding WASH alone or WASH with daily small quantity-lipid based nutrient supplements (SQ-LNS).

Design
This 2y longitudinal cluster-randomized controlled trial (2014-2016) included 60 villages in Burkina Faso randomized to four groups (15 per group): (1) EHFP-2014, (2) EHFP-2014+WASH, (3) EHFP-2010+WASH, and (4) EHFP-2010+WASH+SQ-LNS. Groups 3 and 4 had previously received EHFP (2010-2012). We assessed impacts on child anemia and micronutrient status (n=1,704; 3-12.9 mo at baseline) and anthropometry (n=2,308; 0-12.9 mo at baseline) using difference-in-difference (DID) specifications. We controlled for covariates, adjusted for clustering, and assessed interactive effects by child age at baseline. The trial was registered with clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02236468).

Results
We found no impact of prior exposure to EHFP (groups 2 vs 3) on the outcomes examined. Adding WASH (groups 1 vs 2) reduced anemia (hemoglobin (Hb)<11 g/dL) (DID=9.43 pp, p<0.01) and led to a decline in weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ) (DID -0.11±0.04, p=0.01). Adding SQ-LNS (groups 3 vs 4) increased Hb (DID=0.26±0.13 g/dL, p<0.05), plasma ferritin (DID=7.61±2.69 μg/L, p<0.01), and retinol binding protein (DID=0.07±0.02 umol/L, p<0.01) concentrations. Effects were larger in children <6 mo at baseline, where providing SQ-LNS (>6 mo) positively impacted Hb, plasma ferritin, height-for-age Z-score, WAZ, and underweight.

Conclusions
Using EHFP to deliver WASH and SQ-LNS reduced child anemia and improved micronutrient status. Anthropometric improvements were found in children who joined the program before 6 mo of age and were exposed for the whole complementary feeding period.

Uncovering bottlenecks and innovative solutions for scaling small-scale irrigation through a system approach and design thinking: Evidence from Nigeria

CONTEXT
Small-scale irrigation (SSI) is central to food system transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa, yet its scaling remains low in Nigeria despite the apparent demand and policy narratives.

OBJECTIVE
Examine intermediary ‘missing middle’ barriers to SSI scaling and co-create solutions for socially inclusive, environmentally sustainable, and institutionally coherent scaling of SSI.

METHODS
We integrated Agricultural Innovation Systems (AIS) theory with a Human-Centered Design (HCD) approach to examine SSI diffusion in a Responsible Scaling lens. For qualitative study, a series of HCD workshops were conducted in three geographies (Kano, Oyo, and FCT) with a total of 85 stakeholders drawn from government institutions, financial organizations, and private irrigation technology suppliers. To complement qualitative insights, we analyzed the 2023 National Agricultural Sample Survey microdata to generate a national snapshot of irrigation prevalence, methods, and water sources. This is a nationally representative data from sample of 152,485 households and over 76 million agricultural plots included in the Nigeria National Agricultural Sample Survey (NASS) 2022/2023.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
The study demonstrates that Nigeria's SSI bottlenecks stem not simply from farmer reluctance or technological ignorance but primarily from systemic intermediation failures across policy coordination, finance, and market supply chains—producing a “missing-middle” ecosystem. These failures include fragmented government mandates, high lender risk perceptions, weak supplier networks, gendered exclusion, and pervasive information gaps. Applying responsible scaling (RS) we show how scaling of SSI is being hindered by institutional fragmentation, liquidity constraints, gender exclusion, and data/information deficiency.

SIGNIFICANCE
The study presents co-created innovation pathways, including a national SSI coordination platform, blended-finance mechanisms, supplier hub models, and gender-responsive financing, mapped to AIS functions to guide responsible, inclusive, and climate-resilient scaling. The integrated AIS–HCD–RS approach advances system learning and participatory co-design and offers a practical methodology for responsible scaling of agricultural innovation.

Beyond the 24-hour recall: Aligning dietary diversity metrics with nutrient physiology

Cash transfers relax climate-induced mobility constraints in Kenya

The use of migration as an adaptation strategy is now recognized by scholars and policymakers as a key response to climate change. Cash transfer programs, now being implemented worldwide, also have the potential to facilitate adaptation and promote resilience in low- and middle-income countries. We investigate the extent to which a cash transfer program in Kenya promoted the mobility of household members due to climate shocks, leveraging exogenous variation in local deviations from the historical climate and the administration of the program through a randomized controlled trial. Our findings indicate that beneficiary households were less likely to reduce migration amid cold spells, likely via shifts in education-related migration. We also find that heat spells ubiquitously encourage new members to join the household, while cold spells have the opposite effect, and that cash transfers do not appear to alter these relationships. Together the results suggest that cold spells can trap migrants in temperate, low-resource settings and that cash transfers can partially alleviate these constraints. Modeling migration and complementary strategies in the presence of climate tipping points will become necessary to predict when more permanent migration will be triggered and modifying social assistance will become necessary.

Modeling the association between repeated measures of hemoglobin during pregnancy and adverse birth outcomes

Youth in relation to agroecology: practices, promises, and perceptions in five countries

In the context of rising youth populations in many low- and middle-income countries, coupled with high youth unemployment and aging farmer populations, this paper asks in what ways agroecology, as a sustainable alternative to the conventional agricultural practices and paradigm, attracts youth to farming and rural-based livelihoods. We draw on empirical data from semi-structured interviews and photovoice conducted with young women and men in five countries: Kenya, India, Peru, Tunisia, and Zimbabwe. In our discussion, we highlight which dimensions and aspects of agroecology resonate with youth and why.

Antimicrobial and other aquamedicine use for disease treatment in pond-based commercial tilapia farms in Bangladesh

This study addresses the limited information on use of antimicrobials and other chemical use in commercial tilapia farms in Bangladesh. A retrospective cross-sectional survey was conducted in November 2022 in the Mymensingh district, a major tilapia production hub. Nearly half of the farms (46.6%) experienced fish mortality during the last production cycle, and 75.0% of farmers did not seek professional assistance during disease outbreaks. Among those who did, 68.0% relied on chemical or drug suppliers for guidance rather than veterinary experts. Biosecurity practices were inadequate, with 98.3% not implementing four basic monitored measures: disinfection of vehicles, footwear, hands, and equipment. Awareness of antimicrobial use (AMU) risks among respondents was low, with 56.0% unaware of its negative impacts and 88.8% unfamiliar with antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Antibiotic use was low, with only 15.5% of farms reporting antibiotic treatments, primarily oxytetracycline hydrochloride (23.8%), enrofloxacin (19.0%), and erythromycin–sulphadiazine–trimethoprim (19.0%). However, other chemicals with antimicrobial properties, such as disinfectants, were more commonly applied, reported by 39.7% of farms for disease management. The use of both antimicrobial and non-antimicrobial medicine varied significantly by location, being significantly less likely observed in Tarakanda (p < 0.05) and Fulbaria (p < 0.01), suggesting location-specific differences in disease management. The presence of clinical signs was significantly associated with increased use of both antimicrobials, non-antimicrobial medicine and use of overall aquamedicine (p < 0.001), while longer cultivation durations showed a weak association with reduced AMU. Imprudent use of antimicrobials and other chemicals may pose One Health risks, including disruption of pond microbial ecosystems, AMR development, chemical residues, and occupational hazards. In-depth qualitative studies are needed to further understand and optimize antimicrobial and other chemical use practices and determine how tilapia farmers may benefit from improved biosecurity, training, and veterinary access.

Measuring artisanal fisheries using remote sensing: A deep-learning model piloted in Hadramawt

An innovative remote sensing study piloted in two sites (Mukalla and Qusayir) in Hadramawt Governorate, Yemen, reveals the following key findings:

Deep learning using very high resolution satellite imagery can accurately detect small artisanal fishing boats.
The YOLO11 Oriented Bounding Boxes model performs best, with an overall accuracy of 96.9 percent, and enables measuring boat size and identifying boat types.
Mukalla’s fleet numbered around 800 operational boats in 2021–2024, most of which were houris, while sanbuqs accounted for 6.9 percent. Qusayir’s fleet numbered 450 boats, all of which were houris.
The composition of the combined Mukalla and Qusayir fleets by boat type and length class is similar to the composition of Hadramawt’s entire fleet, as shown by a recent landing site survey.
Approximated fish-catch capacities of the Mukalla and Qusayir fleets indicate that current boat sizes are not a notable constraint to increasing the productivity of these artisanal fisheries.
The proposed remote sensing approach is an important first step toward development of a cost-effective tool for monitoring and analyzing artisanal fishing activities in Southern Yemen and beyond.

IFPRI’s research on true cost accounting: Unlocking the true value of food for sustainable agrifood systems

Sustainable agrifood systems must ensure food security and nutrition while balancing economic, social, and environmental objectives. Yet food costs more than the consumer price, due to hidden costs to human health, the environment, and social and economic equality. Estimates suggest that these unaccounted‑for costs exceed US$11 trillion annually, representing nearly 10% of global GDP. Redesigning agrifood systems requires a clear understanding of external costs to inform policies that balance health, economic, social, and environmental goals.

True Cost Accounting (TCA) methods measure and economically value the environmental, health, and social impacts of agrifood systems. By making these externalities visible, TCA supports more informed decision-making for governments, businesses, farmers, financial institutions, donors, and consumers. Without levers like TCA to align agrifood systems with climate, health, and equity agendas, policymakers enact policies drawn from incomplete or overly generalized analyses.

Scaling biofortified wheat production for agrifood and nutritional security in eastern India: Evidence from five years of multi-location field evaluations in Bihar

Climate stressors and rural incomes: Multi-country evidence on wealth, gender, and age disparities

Multi-stakeholder platforms for enabling agroecological transitions: Configurations and lessons from seven agroecological living landscapes

Agroecological transition (AET) of agrifood systems is a multidimensional process involving diverse stakeholders. Participatory innovation and co-creation of knowledge are also at the heart of agroecology. Deliberately designed Multi-stakeholder platforms (MSPs) are collaborative spaces conducive to driving this type of collaboration and change. However, how these processes are operationalized is poorly documented. This study contributes to filling this gap by highlighting how MSPs can be important vehicles for enabling AETs. As part of the CGIAR Initiative on Agroecology, Agroecological Living Landscapes (ALLs) were set up as MSPs specifically focusing on co-creation of agroecological innovations. By examining different ALL configurations in seven countries, we analyze MSP attributes that can enable and shape AETs at different stages or “levels” of the transition pathway. We find that MSPs can advance different levels of the transition pathway simultaneously by working on multiple innovations involving various stakeholder coalitions. MSPs navigate complex environments, with diverse stakeholders playing multiple policy and non-policy roles to support AETs. The results also illustrate the intersection between MSP configuration and AET objectives, such as policy change, agroecology market support, and scaling adoption. Finally, we discuss the non-linear nature of AET pathways and political economy considerations for stakeholder engagement in MSPs.

Leveraging social protection to strengthen women’s and girls’ climate-resilience in agrifood systems

Women and girls (WGs) have important roles in making agrifood systems more climate resilient. However, systemic inequalities in access to resources, technologies, information, services, and networks, alongside limited agency and restrictive gender norms, reduce their capacity to adapt to and mitigate climate change. WGs’ constraints on adaptation bear implications on the wellbeing of WGs, their households, and the sustainability of agrifood systems. With growing recognition that social protection helps promote WGs’ resilience in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) at large scale, stakeholders are interested in developing social protection programs that are responsive to both climate change and gender inequality. However, little is known about effective approaches. We develop a conceptual framework on how social assistance – the most prevalent type of social protection programming in many LMICs – affects WGs’ coping, adaptive, and mitigative responses to climate hazards. We reflect on the emerging evidence and propose recommendations on program design features that may more effectively promote WGs’ climate resilience in agrifood systems. We additionally highlight important directions for future research to guide practice.

Repairing the mosaic: The political economy of landscape-level agroecological transitions in India

Hidden one-stop shops in transforming agrifood value chains: Agro-input retailers in Myanmar

Artificial intelligence-assisted dietary assessment in adolescent girls in Sri Lanka: Validity against weighed food records and comparison with 24-hour recalls

Background
Reliable dietary data for adolescents in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are limited due to high costs and estimation errors in traditional dietary assessment methods. Although technology-assisted dietary assessment tools are becoming popular, few have been validated in LMICs.

Objectives
This study validated the PlantVillage Food Recognition Assistance and Nudging Insights (FRANI), an artificial intelligence-assisted mobile application for dietary assessment, against weighed food records (WFR) and multipass 24-h recalls (24HR) among adolescent girls aged 14‒18 y (n = 60) in urban/semi-urban communities in Sri Lanka.

Methods
Dietary intake was assessed over 2 non-consecutive days using 3 methods: FRANI, WFR, and 24HR. The equivalence of nutrient intake was evaluated using mixed-effect models accounting for repeated measures by comparing intake ratios (FRANI/WFR and 24HR/WFR) with 10%, 15%, and 20% equivalence bounds. The concordance correlation coefficient was utilized to assess the agreement between methods.

Results
FRANI demonstrated equivalence with WFR at the 10% bound for energy and vitamin A; 15% for protein, fiber, iron, and zinc; and 20% for fat, niacin, and folate intakes. Comparisons between 24HR and WFR found that no nutrients fell within the 10% bound. Energy, protein, fat, iron, niacin, and vitamin A intakes were equivalent at 15% bound, whereas fiber, calcium, folate, and vitamin C intakes were equivalent at 20% bound. Concordance correlation coefficient ranged from 0.49 to 0.89 for FRANI compared to WFR, and 0.44 to 0.84 for 24HR compared with WFR. Omission errors were 2% for FRANI and 12% for 24HR, and intrusion errors were 7% and 9%, respectively.

Conclusions
PlantVillage FRANI application accurately estimated nutrient intakes of adolescent girls in Sri Lanka compared to the WFR. Its performance was at least comparable to the traditional 24HR method, supporting its potential as a scalable alternative for dietary assessment in similar LMIC populations.

Relevance of more stringent discharge standards for acute malnutrition treatment: A pooled analysis of post-treatment relapse in 21 studies

Child hemoglobin trajectories across the first 10 years of life and association with child cognition and academic achievement at 10-11 years

Background
Anemia is a global health concern, though the importance of changes in hemoglobin (Hb) and cognitive outcomes in childhood remains unclear.
Objective
We examined the association between child Hb trajectories and anemia with cognitive development and academic achievement at 10-11y.
Methods
We used prospective data from Vietnamese children (n=831) born to women who participated in a micronutrient supplementation trial (PRECONCEPT). Hb was measured at 3mo, 6mo, 1y, 2y and 10-11y. Multivariable linear regression models assessed the association between Hb trajectories and anemia with cognitive development (full-scale intelligence quotient- FSIQ), and academic achievement (mathematics and reading) at 10-11y, adjusting for maternal (intervention, education, age, mental health), child (age, sex), and household (home environment, socioeconomic status) characteristics.
Results
Three child Hb trajectories were identified (low-6.4%, middle-52.2% and high-41.4%). Compared to the middle and high trajectory groups, children in the low trajectory had the lowest Hb levels at 3 months (Hb: 9.7g/dL) and through age 10-11y (11.2g/dl). Children in the low-Hb trajectory had lower FSIQ (89.8 vs 93.2), math (12.1 vs 13.5) and reading (17.8 vs 19.0) scores compared to the high-Hb trajectory. These differences were attenuated in adjusted models. Children in the low and middle Hb trajectories had non-significantly lower FSIQ (-0.93; 95% CI: [-4.57, 2.71] and (-1.13 [-2.92, 0.66]), reading scores (-0.01 [-1.36,1.34]) and -0.46 [-1.13,0.21]) and math scores (-0.57 [-1.15,0.01] and -0.65 [-1.82, 0.51]). Anemia status at 10-11y was negatively associated with FSIQ (-3.82 [-6.68, -0.76]) and math scores (-1.04 [-2.03, -0.05]) in adjusted models.
Conclusion
Child Hb trajectories across the first 10 years of life were largely established early in life and had weak associations with cognition and academic achievement at 10-11y. Anemia among 10-year-old children was associated with lower IQ and math scores, which underscores the importance of continued investment in nutrition programs among school-age children.

Evaluating large-scale government investments in fertilizer adoption: The Ethiopian experience

We evaluate the impact of a large Government of Ethiopia intervention to raise fertilizer supply by establishing five fertilizer blending facilities supplying fertilizers tailored to local soil nutrient profiles. We rely on the phased geographic rollout of blending facility establishment to identify the causal effect on fertilizer use, application rates, crop yields, gross crop revenue, and household consumption. Combining effects of multiple treatment periods, each estimated using a doubly robust difference-in-difference model, we find that the blending facilities increased the probability that farmers adopt the new blended fertilizers by 22 percentage points and increased application rates by 17 kg/ha (baseline adoption was zero). The facilities mostly induced farmers who previously used DAP to switch to NPS, and we find large decreases in DAP adoption (by 22 percentage points, 47% of the control group base mean) and application rates (16 kg/ha, 52% of the control group base mean) yet no impact on overall fertilizer adoption or application rates. Though the new blended fertilizers were expected to perform better, there is no evidence they improved crop yields, crop gross revenue, or household consumption. The effect of the intervention was more pronounced (with larger increases in NPS use and larger decreases in DAP use) for farms located near demonstration plots, which the Government used to train farmers about the agronomic response to the new fertilizers. We confirm results using three large-scale longitudinal datasets and show that they are robust to choices of specification, treatment definition, and inference assumptions.

JEL classification: O12, O13, Q16, Q18

Preconception micronutrient supplementation positively affects offspring perceptual reasoning at 10-11 years of age: Follow-up of a randomized controlled trial in Vietnam

The future in mind: Aspirations and long-term outcomes in rural Ethiopia

Phenology-aligned multi-task temporal fusion framework for satellite-based triple-seasonal rice yield estimation in Southeast Asia

Accurate seasonal rice yield estimation across Southeast Asia’s intensive cropping systems remains challenging due to complex phenological patterns and heterogeneous environmental conditions. This study develops a phenology-aligned multi-task temporal fusion (MTTF) framework for satellite-based seasonal rice yield estimation in Vietnam’s triple-cropping systems from 2001 to 2020. The multi-task learning treats each cropping season (winter–spring, summer–autumn, monsoon) as related but distinct tasks, enabling knowledge sharing while preserving season-specific characteristics. The framework integrates multi-source time-series data, including climate variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation), satellite-based vegetation indices (e.g., NDVI, EVI, NIRv, GCVI, LSWI), productivity indicators (e.g., SIF, GPP), and static soil properties (e.g., clay content, organic carbon, bulk density) through parallel Transformer encoders and late fusion strategies. To address temporal misalignment across heterogeneous cropping calendars, we developed an automated phenology-based crop season detection method that synchronizes time-series inputs to key growth stages rather than calendar dates. MTTF achieved high performance (R2 = 0.75, RMSE = 0.63 Mg·ha−1, and rRMSE = 12.0%), outperforming baseline models including Transformer, AtBiLSTM, ANN, XGBoost, and Random Forest. The multi-task learning approach outperformed both global models (single predictor for all seasons) and local models (separate predictors for each season), demonstrating particular benefits for data-scarce seasons like monsoon rice. Phenology alignment enhanced temporal consistency across all models. Multi-modal data fusion significantly improved performance, with satellite-based vegetation measurements contributing more significantly than climate variables according to SHAP analysis. The proposed framework provides a robust approach for operational rice yield monitoring across intensive cropping systems, with implications for assessing food security and agricultural policy in monsoon regions.

The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model documentation for version 4

The International Food Policy Research Institute’s IMPACT model is a robust tool for analyzing global and regional challenges in food, agriculture, and natural resources. Continuously updated and refined since its initial development in the early 1990s, IMPACT version 4 represents the latest iteration of the model, offering an enhanced treatment of complex issues such as climate change, food security, and economic development. IMPACT 4 modeling system integrates climate, crop simulation, and water models into a comprehensive system, providing decision-makers with a flexible platform to assess the potential impacts of various scenarios on biophysical systems, socioeconomic trends, technologies, and policies.

Strengthening women’s resilience and participation in climate governance in the agrifood sector through public policies: A strategic review of literature

Women are uniquely vulnerable to climate change but play a critical role in enhancing the climate resilience of the agrifood sector. Based on a rapid review of academic and grey literature, this paper synthesizes the state of knowledge on the level of integration of gender aspects in climate change policies and women’s involvement in policy processes in the Global South. It examines women’s participation in climate change governance, strategies for enhancing this participation, and policy approaches to strengthen women’s resilience while addressing gender inequalities. Findings show that public policies often employ quotas, incentives, and capacity building initiatives to boost women’s participation in governance. However, meaningful engagement in higher-level decision-making remains limited, with quotas sometimes resulting in superficial involvement. Facilitating women’s access to agrifood resources, human capital, and economic opportunities, as well as addressing harmful gender norms, are identified as effective strategies to build resilience. Despite these promising approaches, gaps remain in the implementation and evaluation of policies aimed at enhancing women’s resilience and participation. The paper concludes by recommending outcome-oriented research and robust evaluations of public policy effectiveness in improving women’s climate resilience and governance roles.

An evolving landscape for nexus governance in transboundary basins: Recognizing and harnessing the growing role of multistakeholder platforms

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: March 2026

Cereals and Flour
Lentils, Rice, and Pigeon Peas
Vegetables
Meat and Animal Products
Oilseeds, Cooking Oil, Sugar, and Fava Beans
Seeds
Fertilizers
Diesel and Petrol
Exchange Rates
Labor wages
Market Actors’ Perceptions

Papua New Guinea food price bulletin: April 2026

This bulletin reports on food price trends from major markets in Papua New Guinea (PNG), for the first quarter (Q1) of 2026 using the data collected by Fresh Produce Development Authority (FPDA). During the first quarter, at least one round of data per month was collected from all markets, except for Port Moresby in February (no data). In March, Banz and Port Moresby had two rounds each, while all other markets had one round.

This report analyzes month-over-month changes in Q1 2026 (January to March) and compares prices with the previous quarter (Q4 2025: October to December) and the same period in 2025 (Q1 2025). Prices are reported in real PGK per kilogram (i.e., adjusted for inflation using the FAO Consumer Food Price Index (PCI) and price gaps from July 2025 to March 2026 filled using a growth rate calculated from quarterly PCI data provided by the PNG National Statistical Office (June and September 2025)). This bulletin focuses on selected staples (sweet potato, taro, cassava, cooking banana and rice), vegetables (aibika, English cabbage, capsicum, carrot, and choko-tips) and fruits (lemon, orange, pawpaw and pineapple).

Horticulture sector in India: Trends, performance, and impact

Exploring good gaps for right-sizing food assistance: Methods, data challenges, and lessons learned

Accurate measurement of the depth of acute food insecurity remains a major gap in current global monitoring systems. While the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) identifies the scale and geographic distribution of populations in crisis, it does not quantify the magnitude of food intake shortfalls faced by affected populations. This paper outlines an exploratory data exercise that tests three proxy approaches to estimating food gaps using available IPC and DIEM data. First, we derive back-of-envelope caloric deficit estimates by IPC phase using thresholds from the Household Economy Approach. Second, we assess whether widely used dietary diversity, experiential food insecurity, and coping capacity indicators can serve as proxies for calorie deficits by analyzing their cross-indicator correlations. Third, using microdata from FAO's DIEM surveys matched to IPC area phases, we estimate indicator-specific shortfalls using a Foster-Greer-Thorbecke gap framework and translate these into food assistance estimates. The results show that proxy indicators cannot be used interchangeably to estimate caloric shortfalls, reflecting weak cross-indicator correlations consistent with the existing literature. Within-phase heterogeneity is wide and data limitations are substantial. The paper documents these approaches and their limitations as an intermediate step. The paper provides several recommendations for improving data collection that would allow for more reliable food gap estimates using the framework presented in this paper, which in turn could then operationalized for humanitarian agencies to ‘right size’ and better target food assistance to populations facing acute food insecurity.

Livelihood alternatives to labor migration: A choice experiment in Tajikistan

Labor migration is often driven by a need for income, and can also be motivated by a desire for higher earnings. A naïve assumption is therefore that an increase in local livelihood alternatives might reduce outmigration, something which has been found to hold true in some settings, but not in others. This study employs a discrete choice experiment (DCE) with 408 rural respondents in Tajikistan—a country heavily reliant on remittances from abroad—to assess whether specific local income-generating opportunities, such as those offered through cash-for-work programs or through the provision of additional farmland, might affect stated preferences regarding migration. The study explores trade-offs between local income generating opportunities (wage employment, access to farmland, and irrigation infrastructure) and migration restrictions, i.e., hypothetical constraints on household members migrating abroad for a given duration. We rely on stated rather than revealed preferences to examine these trade-offs. Our findings lend some support to the idea that households are willing to accept outmigration restrictions in return for improved local income-generation opportunities, either through wage employment or own-farming. Yet, findings are heterogeneous and depend on the households’ current and anticipated reliance on labor migration.

Under the weight of provision: Gendered mental load among smallholder farmers in Kenya

Invisible mental strain affects women and men, especially in rural areas. The effects of this strain can influence collective and economic decisions, impacting resilience in low-resource agricultural communities. Using qualitative data collected from focus group discussions with smallholder farmers in Western Kenya, we explored gendered strains of women and men, their social and psychological consequences, and the gender empathy gap. We conducted focus group discussions with 56 farmers and found that expectations of the roles of women and men in the household were clear. The “invisible burden” was present in the pressure to be hardworking and to provide financial means for the family as a man; and to care for the family and farm as a woman. The strain led to stress, worry, and deterioration of mental health, contributing to despondency, isolation, household conflict, and even mental breakdowns. Household members coped with the psychological strain in different ways. Men tended to use avoidance mechanisms, isolate themselves, or turn to alcohol consumption. Women mentioned talking to others about the strain. Both women and men also reached out to other people, took some kind of action, made plans or relied on their faith in God. Both women and men showed empathy toward one another; that is, they recognized the strain and the effects on their spouse. However, women appeared to show more empathy than men. Thus, the breadwinner strain borne by men and the family load borne by women was an important factor in rural areas, affecting household relations and decisions, which can ultimately affect household resilience. Given the negative social and psychological consequences of this invisible burden, mental health literacy trainings, gender transformative approaches, community dialogues, and gender-responsive extension services can be employed to help households to better cope with strain.

Evaluation of solar-powered cold storage and evaporative cooling system as off-grid methods for postharvest vegetable storage: Evidence from a laboratory Experiment in Nigeria

This study examined the postharvest storage potentials of a solar-powered cool storage and an off-grid, metal-in-wall evaporative coolant. Temperature drop and relative humidity (RH) increase were used to analyze the performance of cooling systems. Tomato (United Trading Company (UTC) variety), orange (Dan Benue variety) and carrot (Orange Chantenay) were obtained from the international fruits market in Dutse, Jigawa State, Nigeria. The items were sorted and stored in three different storage conditions: room temperature (RT), solar-powered cold storage, and metal-in-wall evaporative cooling systems. Mass loss, color, hardness, total soluble solids and titratable acids, carotenoids, vitamin C, and rate of nutrient degradation were among the quality indicators tested. The study shows that the solar-powered cold storage outperformed all other storage methods across the evaluated parameters; it preserved fruit firmness, significantly reduced the rate of color change, and minimized mass and nutrient losses, outperforming the metal-in-wall evaporative cooling system. For instance, tomato mass losses observed in 24 days were 42.66, 63.79, and 85.45 percent in the solar-powered cold storage, evaporative coolant, and ambient storage, respectively. Economic advantages of the above technologies, however, require careful consideration of investment costs and longer-term durability and benefits.

Combine harvester service providers in Myanmar: Insights from the 2025 monsoon season

This note presents results from a January–February 2026 phone survey of 325 combine harvester service provider (CHSPs), offering insights into the 2025 monsoon season.

Key Findings
Acres harvested declined by 11 percent (7 percent in the Dry Zone, 11 percent in the Delta), with 61 percent of CHSPs reporting lower demand, associated with poor rice price incentives in the Delta and movement restrictions in the Dry Zone.
Nominal service charges fell by a median of 6 percent, concentrated in the Delta where fuel costs declined, while Dry Zone charges remained flat reflecting limited fuel savings and a restricted operating environment.
Most CHSPs (91 percent) extended credit to farmers without interest, and 74 percent provided more financial assistance than the previous year, highlighting their role as an important source of informal credit.
Cash flow problems affected 26 percent of CHSPs, driven by declining revenues and rising costs that may be understated in real terms given Myanmar's persistently high inflation, with many coping by borrowing, selling assets, or drawing on other income.
Emerging fuel supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict pose a significant risk to the 2026 monsoon season, potentially limiting CHSP operations at a time when farmers may also face fertilizer shortages, threatening agricultural production.

Recommended Actions
De-risk credit for mechanization services by expanding farmers' access to affordable formal credit or introducing partial guarantee schemes.
Improve mobility and security for CHSP operations through greater transparency and reductions of checkpoints, fewer required permissions, and safer roads.
Support training and retention of machine operators to address shortages driven by outmigration and insecurity.

Presentations for A Narrow Strait, Global Consequences: Hormuz Strait and Fertilizer Markets

Vertical integration and the modernization of staple food value chains: Evidence from Myanmar’s rice sector

Increased vertical integration and coordination are defining features of transforming and modernizing agricultural value chains in low- and middle-income countries, with important implications for market efficiency and farm-level transformation. However, research documenting these processes in modernizing domestic value chains is limited, and tends to focus on foreign direct investment and high-value food products. We study the rice value chain – the most important staple in Southeast Asia – in Myanmar and use unique data from domestic rice mills and farmers to analyze millers’ expansion into other businesses and services. We show that both modern and traditional mills serve as key nodes in local rice value chains, fulfilling diverse roles beyond processing at both the farm and post-farm levels and highlighting a co-development of modern processing and vertical integration. Yet, statistical tests that control for mill and farmer characteristics, respectively, show that modern mills are more engaged in vertical integration and coordination, particularly in post-farm value chain segments, highlighting the co-development of modern processing and business expansion. Consistent with this pattern in the miller data, farmers using a modern mill are more likely to receive complementary services – especially post-farm – and to adopt modern production practices more broadly. However, this expansion is uneven, reaching large farms more frequently than small and medium farms.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: February 2026

Cereals and Flour
Lentils, Rice, and Pigeon Peas
Vegetables
Meat and Animal Products
Oilseeds, Cooking Oil, Sugar, and Fava Beans
Seeds (Improved and Local)
Fertilizers
Diesel and Petrol
Exchange Rates
Labor wages
Market Actors’ Perceptions

Myanmar monthly food price report – March 2026

Rice prices in March 2026 remained lower year-on-year (down 9 percent), although they increased slightly month-on-month, indicating a recovery following earlier declines driven by lower international prices and strong domestic supply. While easing pressure on consumers, these trends continue to raise concerns for paddy producers, who face rising input costs and fuel constraints.

Export crop prices showed relatively limited movement this month, suggesting a pause in momentum after previous gains driven by the revised foreign exchange policy and stronger international market demand.

Vegetable prices declined month-on-month, reflecting increased market supply during the peak harvest season. Prices of garlic, onion, and chili fell as new season’s produce entered the market, outweighing ongoing supply disruptions. In contrast, potato prices continued to increase due to weather-related production constraints,

Animal-sourced food prices continued to rise sharply year-on-year, led by mutton, chicken, and fish, reflecting supply constraints, disease outbreaks, and strong export demand. However, month-on-month changes were relatively modest, indicating short-term price stability.

The conflict in Iran has led to a partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than a quarter of the world’s oil exports and 20–30 percent of global fertilizer exports pass. These developments are especially concerning for Myanmar’s agrifood system, which depends heavily on fuel for transport, irrigation, mechanization, and processing. In addition, disruptions in fertilizer supply could adversely affect the upcoming monsoon season.

Five misconceptions distorting food policy in Malawi: A joint NPC-IFPRI position paper

Among countries not affected by conflict, Malawi has the lowest GDP per capita, and its economy has been shrinking for much of the past five years. External shocks have undoubtedly strained an already fragile economy, but policy choices have further stifled growth and amplified vulnerabilities. Many of these choices are rooted in persistent misconceptions, that distort decision-making and undermine progress. This position paper identifies and challenges those misconceptions. We focus only on beliefs that are widespread, lead to seriously distorted policy choices, and are genuinely held by well-intentioned actors committed to inclusive development in Malawi. These actors are our primary audience, as those without this underlying objective are unlikely to be swayed. Our list is selective rather than exhaustive, concentrating on misconceptions that are particularly pervasive and influential in the food systems policy space, and for which robust, evidence-based arguments exist.

Linking Malawian smallholders to larger-scale agribusiness enterprises for inclusive development: A conceptual critique of the anchor enterprise model

While smallholder farming has been and remains at the center of agricultural transformation efforts in Malawi, the limited success of smallholder-centered agricultural development strategies has led policymakers to explore alternative approaches. One emerging approach involves larger farms or agribusiness firms partnering with smallholder farming households, in what we will refer to as an anchor enterprise model. Under this model, smallholder farming households contribute land and labor to produce crops or livestock products that serve as inputs for, or are marketed jointly with, the anchor enterprise. In return, the anchor enterprise provides support such as technical assistance, inputs, transport, or storage. This partnership is intended to be commercial and mutually beneficial. While support for such partnerships is growing and the anchor enterprise model is increasingly being used in development programming in Malawi, there is still little clarity on what they involve, what they aim to achieve, and the conditions they need for success. This study seeks to address these questions and assess whether such linkages between larger farms or agrifood processors and smallholder farming households can contribute to sustainable, resilient, and inclusive wealth creation in Malawi. The findings from this study are also summarized in a policy note (Benson, Cockx, and De Weerdt, 2025).

Anchor enterprise partnerships can be valuable development models in specific contexts. In particular, they can help both larger enterprises and smallholders overcome constraints imposed by weaknesses in Malawi’s factor, input, and output markets, enabling both land and labor to be used more productively. However, the viability of the model depends heavily on the nature of the product at its center. Anchor enterprise models are generally not suitable for grain or other generic staple crops. For such products, partnerships are costly and carry high risk since farmers can easily find and sell to other buyers than their anchor enterprise partner if market prices rise above the agreed price for the partnership (side-selling). Similarly, if market prices drop below the agreed price, enterprises may buy elsewhere (side-buying). Rather, these partnerships are most likely to be economically justified for higher value, less widely grown, more specialized, more complex to produce or process, or highly perishable agricultural products. For these products, the risk of default is lower as the reduction in transaction costs provides both parties with strong incentives for maintaining a longer-term commercial relationship.

These incentives are especially important as the legal framework governing commercial partnerships in Malawi's agrifood sector remains underdeveloped. Formal contracts were found to be important but not central to successful anchor enterprise operations. Partnerships that endure are built on a strong economic rationale, clear financial incentives for all parties, and a degree of bilateral dependency.

Anchor enterprise models cannot be profitably and sustainably employed for many types of commercial agricultural production in Malawi. Consequently, only a small portion of farming households can directly participate, and the poorest and most vulnerable are generally less likely to be included. Nonetheless, where such models work well, they can deliver indirect benefits to the broader rural community, including its poorer and more vulnerable members, by stimulating local demand for labor, goods, and services. Complementary interventions aimed at strengthening the capacity of the poorest households to capture these indirect benefits may, however, be necessary for the model to contribute meaningfully to inclusive development.

A model centered around commercial farms or agro-processors requires an enabling environment for such enterprises to operate effectively. This includes macroeconomic stability, an investment climate that facilitates private investment in agribusiness, and trade and exchange rate policies that support formal exports. To be sustainable, anchor enterprise models must be grounded in a strong economic rationale for partnering. Government and development partners can, however, support such partnerships without eroding their commercial foundations by, for example, investing in new institutions for conflict prevention and resolution, providing enterprises with assistance in managing relationships with smallholder partners, organizing financial and business training for farmers to reduce information asymmetries, or supporting organizations that can act as effective third-party intermediaries.

Can cash and therapy work in conflict settings?

A randomised evaluation of a cash and psychological intervention in Ethiopia shows that the joint intervention is needed to improve both mental health and economic outcomes, but the effectiveness of the combined intervention is attenuated by active conflict.

Evaluating the impact of tariffs on US agriculture a year after liberation day

In April 2025, the Trump administration levied 10 percent tariffs on virtually all countries and higher “reciprocal” tariffs on certain countries, ushering in a new and uncertain tariff architecture that saw significant changes, exemptions, and additional actions over the following year.

The tariffs modestly reduced overall US agricultural and food imports, but with significant heterogeneity by exporting country and product category.

The tariffs had mixed effects on US agricultural exports, with exports to China and Canada falling partly because of retaliatory tariffs and consumer reactions, respectively.

After imposing the tariffs, the United States negotiated several bilateral trade deals with other countries. However, given the lack of product-specific details, China’s continued retaliatory measures, and the Supreme Court’s decision striking down the bulk of US tariffs, it is unclear whether these deals with actually improve agricultural market access for US exporters.

War and resilience: The multifaceted impacts of Sudan's conflict and pathways to recovery

Sudan is facing one of the most severe humanitarian and economic crises in its modern history. The current civil war has displaced millions and severely damaged livelihoods, markets, and institutions, causing a rapid deterioration in the economy, agrifood systems, and population welfare.

War and Resilience: The Multifaceted Impacts of Sudan’s Conflict and Pathways to Recovery situates the current conflict within Sudan’s longer historical trajectory, explaining how structural factors contributed to the war’s progression and scale. Drawing on recent household and enterprise surveys, satellite indicators, market price data, and economywide modeling, the book documents the crisis’s impacts and identifies realistic entry points for stabilization and recovery.

Written by leading IFPRI researchers and colleagues, War and Resilience highlights how Sudan’s population has shown remarkable resilience through social networks, remittances, informal support systems, and adaptation across rural and urban settings. Its final chapters offer decision-makers a forward-looking assessment of pathways toward recovery.

Origins and causes of Sudan’s conflict: Domestic and international perspectives

The war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and its subsidiary paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) that began in April 2023 follows a succession of civil wars that devasted the economically marginalized, socially ostracized, and politically disenfranchised southern and western regions of Sudan, but it has now brought the conflict to the country’s geographic and economic power center. Unlike the decades-long North–South civil wars or the ongoing deadly conflict in Darfur, today’s conflict began in Khartoum and the agriculturally rich heartland of Central Sudan, bringing death and destruction to the central Aj Jazirah and Sennar states, before moving south and west to Darfur and Kordofan. The same historical, economic, political, and ethnic factors that fueled those previous conflicts are at play now, as the belligerent factions seek to control the country’s resources. This time, however, after working together to halt efforts to democratize Sudan, the SAF and RSF turned on each other, each seeking to dominate the kleptocratic state system.

Introduction [in War and resilience: The multifaceted impacts of Sudan's conflict and pathways to recovery]

Sudan is experiencing one of the most severe humanitarian and economic crises in its modern history due to the ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The war has devastated livelihoods, displaced millions, and significantly weakened the country’s agrifood system and broader economic structure. Since the conflict erupted in April 2023, it has escalated into the world’s largest displacement crisis, with nearly 12 million people—nearly one-third of Sudan’s population-forced to flee their homes, including 4.5 million refugees who have sought safety in neighboring countries, including Egypt, Chad, South Sudan, and Ethiopia.

Conflict-induced trade dynamics: A gravity framework analysis of Sudan’s agricultural exports

Long before the April 2023 eruption of armed conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Sudan’s economy was crippled by conflicts. The country’s agricultural production and productivity, internal trade, exports, and overall macroeconomic performance have all been adversely affected, and disruptions to the agrifood system, food insecurity, poverty, and malnutrition will likely remain if the conflict continues.

State failure and elite capture of Sudan’s agrifood system

Since the outbreak of Sudan’s civil war in April 2023, nearly 12 million people have been displaced, and an estimated 44,000 have been directly killed by the violence (UNHCR 2026; ACLED 2025). Many more are estimated to have suffered from war-related disease and malnutrition (Roberts 2025). The decimation of the capital city of Khartoum—the epicenter of the jubilant civilian uprisings in 2019—epitomizes the country’s short journey from a promising democratic opening to a failed state.

Worsening food security in Sudan amid conflict

The conflict in Sudan, primarily between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has escalated since April 2023 into a significant crisis, affecting the nation’s stability and security and worsening humanitarian conditions. The conflict has severely degraded the food security of many Sudanese households, with profound effects on their diets, coping strategies, and overall welfare.

Human capital at risk: The impact of conflict on health and education in Sudan

Human capital, including the knowledge, skills, and health of a population, is the foundation for economic growth and development (Lucas Jr. 1988; Mankiw et al. 1992; Pelinescu 2015). Healthcare and education stand out as critical pillars that directly enhance human capital, influencing individual well-being, workforce productivity, and development (Barro and Sala-i-Martin 1995; Schultz 2003; Hanushek and Woessman 2012). Access to quality healthcare ensures a healthy and productive population capable of contributing to economic activities, while education equips individuals with the skills and knowledge essential for innovation and global competitiveness. Together, these sectors constitute the backbone of a nation’s resilience and long-term prosperity (Kim and Ahn 2020; Wang and Gu 2024).

Cereal production, markets, and policy in Sudan

Cereal production has long been a cornerstone of Sudan’s food security and economy, especially wheat, sorghum, and millet. Given the importance of these staples, policy related to imports and prices of wheat (and sorghum, to a lesser extent) has major effects on food production and consumption. In particular, before 2023, government interventions in wheat markets involved huge implicit—and sometimes explicit—fiscal costs, including interventions on large food aid inflows, official sales prices, direct controls on commercial imports, and subsidies on wheat milling (D’Silva and Badawi 1988; Faki and Taha 2009; Abdelaziz et al. 2022). These policies have generally benefited urban consumers at the expense of rural producers and have not always been well-targeted to the poor (Resnick 2021; Resnick 2026, Chapter 3 in this volume).

Economywide impact of Sudan’s conflict and pathways to recovery

Massive human displacement and economic devastation have resulted from Sudan’s ongoing conflict, which erupted on April 15, 2023, between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, as of February 2, 2026, nearly 12 million people were internally displaced in Sudan, and 4.5 million had sought refuge in neighboring countries (UNHCR 2026). Public services, including health, education, and sanitation, have collapsed in many regions, compounding the humanitarian crisis and further destabilizing the socioeconomic fabric of the country.

Monitoring economic activities: Leveraging satellite and remote-sensing technologies

Understanding disruptions to economic activities in conflict-affected regions such as Sudan is essential for policymakers, humanitarian organizations, and researchers seeking to develop effective response strategies. However, traditional data collection methods, such as official government statistics and household surveys, become unreliable or impractical in these contexts due to security risks, displacement, and institutional breakdowns. In such environments, satellite and remote-sensing technologies provide a powerful alternative, offering near real-time, scalable, and objective insights into economic disturbances, infrastructure damage, population displacement, and environmental degradation. Advances in Earth observation technologies now allow researchers to monitor the economic consequences of conflicts with great accuracy and efficiency, even in regions where on-the-ground data collection is impossible (Hoogeveen et al. 2016; Hoogeveen and Pape 2020; Abay et al. 2023).

Food consumption patterns and dietary diversity amid conflict

Sudan is currently experiencing one of the most severe food security crises globally. According to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) more than 21.2 million people—45 percent of the population—are acutely food insecure (IPC Phase 3 or above), with more than 146,000 people facing catastrophic levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 5) as of February 2026 (IPC 2025). As of September 2025, El-Fasher (North Darfur) and the besieged town of Kadugli (South Kordofan) were classified as experiencing famine (IPC Phase 5) with reasonable evidence. These conditions were expected to persist through January 2026. The crisis has also led to the acute malnutrition of 4.7 million children under five and pregnant and breastfeeding women and girls (IPC 2024a).

A Sudanese strategy for postconflict, agriculture-led transformative growth

The intense factional war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Force (RSF) that erupted in April 2023 has devastated Sudan. This war is a tragic legacy of the kleptocratic regime of General Omar Al-Bashir, which ruled the country from 1989 until it was deposed by the leadership of the two armies in 2019, following a massive popular uprising in December 2018 (see Chapter 2 for details). The presence of a divided military institution in Sudan has been attributed to the coup-proofing strategy of “coup-fearing” autocrats, who were willing to undermine the state’s military effectiveness to extend their own tenure (Powell 2014).

Delivering aid amid active conflict and insecurity: Digital transfers for delivering social and humanitarian assistance in Sudan

The recent resurgence of armed conflict in Africa is increasing the need for shock-responsive humanitarian and social assistance programs. For example, the armed conflict in Sudan, which erupted in April 2023, has caused the world’s largest displacement crisis, creating a multifaceted humanitarian crisis that requires significant investments in assistance. Armed conflicts in Africa are aggravating poverty and hunger (Corral et al. 2020) and threatening important gains in poverty reduction made in the last few decades. This is causing major setbacks to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 (Corral et al. 2020; World Bank Group 2020), particularly SDG2 (Zero Hunger), SDG3 (Good Health and Well-Being), and SDG16 (Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions).

Drivers of vulnerability and low resilience in Sudan

Sudan is currently facing one of the most severe crises in its modern history, with conflict, economic collapse, and climate disasters driving unprecedented levels of instability. Since April 2023, when the conflict erupted between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the country has experienced a complete breakdown in governance and a near-total collapse of key economic and social structures, leading to one of the world’s largest internal displacement crises and an escalating humanitarian emergency.

Shocks, coping, and household livelihood strategies in wartime

Since the eruption of conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in April 2023, Sudan has experienced one of the most severe humanitarian and economic crises in recent history. Beyond the tragic toll in lost and displaced lives, the conflict has profoundly disrupted livelihoods, dismantled social safety nets, and eroded the foundations of food and income security across the country. The ongoing war has affected millions, displacing communities and decimating livelihood systems across both rural and urban areas.

Toward a prosperous and secure Sudan: A way forward

As Sudan’s ongoing conflict enters its third year, the scale of human suffering and economic devastation continues to escalate. The brutal war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has devastated livelihoods, shattered infrastructure, and crippled the country’s agrifood systems and broader economy. Nearly 12 million people—one-fourth of Sudan’s population—have been displaced, including more than 4 million refugees who have fled to neighboring countries such as Egypt, Chad, South Sudan, and Ethiopia (UNHCR 2026). The death toll is estimated to be more than 44,000 as of September 2025 (ACLED 2025), though some assessments suggest fatalities could exceed 150,000 when accounting for deaths from violence, starvation, and disease (Sampson 2025). Children have borne the brunt of this devastation: 16 million are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance, and more than 17 million school-age children are currently out of school. The widespread destruction of hospitals, schools, and essential services continues to deepen the crisis, threatening to reverse decades of development and push the country toward systemic collapse.

Simplifying crop models into statistical emulators of varying complexity

Process based crop simulation models can be used to anticipate how crop yields behave under different weather conditions which makes them useful for assessing the implications for yields of weather variability, uncertainty, and climate change. However, they can be cumbersome to use or embed in other models. Hence, developing statistical models that emulate the full models can provide a lighter-weight means of harnessing their power for rapid or high-volume assessments.

We develop emulators for several major crops. Climate and fertilizer rates are matched to the yields simulated by a full crop model to provide a dataset covering the entire land surface of the globe. We use neural network specifications to be able to easily try out different levels of complexity. The final selection of the emulator models is a balance between complexity and performance.

The large amount of data meant that the emulators could support complicated specifications. We ultimately settled on models with approximately 200 parameters. Neither rainfed nor irrigated conditions were consistently better performing. In general, the r-squared values of the estimated emulators ranged from 0.85 to 0.95. No crops appeared significantly easier or more difficult to model than the others.

The emulators we developed provide a simple substitute for more complicated crop models when a high level of detail is not needed. The approach can be easily updated with new data or be applied to more specific circumstances if necessary by creating custom datasets that emphasize the particular conditions anticipated to be most important.

Spatial disparity, information, and the economics of cool transportation: Insights from a randomized controlled trial in Nigeria

Food loss is a significant source of economic inefficiency in value chains. In many developing countries, including Nigeria, a majority of fruits, vegetables, and other perishable foods are lost after harvest, due in large part to inadequate postharvest handling or low adoption of post-harvest management technologies, particularly cooling technologies such as temperature-controlled transportation and cold storage. To examine the economic impacts of cool transportation connecting vegetable-producing states in northeast Nigeria to large demand centers in Nigeria’s southern regions, we introduced a randomized controlled trial. Cool transportation was found to have a large and statistically significant impact: sales price, revenues, and profits increased substantially for the origin-state marketers. A larger portion of sales price increase at the destination market is attributed to refrigeration, that is, quality preservation through cooling. About 66 percent of this increase comes from cooling, with an additional 34 percent from transportation. An information experiment further showed that improved quality information through labelling that identifies the origin of the produce creates price premiums at the destination market. This implies that significant economic gains can be generated not only from narrowing supply–demand gaps in different markets but also, potentially, through mitigating spatial asymmetric information.

Presentations for Three Years of Conflict in Sudan: What the Evidence Tells Us and What Recovery Requires

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, March 2026

Average retail prices of maize declined by 6 percent in March. Imports of newly harvested maize from Mozambique depressed retail prices in Southern and Central Malawi, while exports to Zambia and Tanzania propped up prices in Northern Malawi, reducing regional price differences in the country.

Creating a taro yield emulator and using it to study climate change impact on taro in Papua New Guinea

This paper develops a taro yield emulator to assess climate change impacts on taro production in Papua New Guinea (PNG). The emulator uses a fixed-effects polynomial regression trained on DSSAT simulations to capture non-linear, stage-specific responses of taro yields to rainfall and temperature. Historical MSWX weather and future climates from CMIP6/ISIMIP3b and a large MIT-IGSM/AgERA5 sample are used to drive the emulator and assess changes in average yields, yield variability, and the frequency of low-yield years across PNG. Our analysis shows that taro appears to be sensitive to both low- and high-rainfall levels during particular phases of growth and is sensitive to heat during particular phases, as well.

Our visit to farmers fields in the Markham Valley along with discussions with experts at GrowPNG in Lae, NARI, and PNG University of Technology in Lae alerted us to the fact that drought was a serious problem for taro, but the model revealed the additional issues with high rainfall and high temperature, along with the additional information about the months that were particularly important for determining the degree of damage that adverse weather might do to yields.

National-average yield changes by mid-century under high-emissions scenarios are projected to be small based on the median projections across climate models, however one of the climate models projects a much larger temperature increase relative to the other models, and for that climate model, the yield reduction is around 9% on average.

Ensuring inclusiveness, sustainability, and efficiency of food system transformation in the ASEAN and BIMSTEC countries “ATMI-II”

The project “Ensuring Inclusiveness, Sustainability, and Efficiency of Food System Transformation in the ASEAN and BIMSTEC Countries - (ATMI-II)” responds to the rapid transformation of agri-food systems across selected Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and ay of Bengal Initiative for MultiSectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) member states. These countries face significant development challenges, including persistent rural poverty, inequality across socio-economic groups, and high vulnerability to climate change and natural disasters. As agricultural markets become more integrated regionally and globally, concerns have intensified regarding inclusiveness, particularly the participation of smallholder farmers, women, and youth in value chains, markets, and policy processes.

Pre- and postharvest losses and their correlates in the millet value chain in Nigeria

Food losses continue to constrain food security, rural incomes, and agrifood system efficiency in sub-Saharan Africa, yet comprehensive micro-level evidence across entire value chains remains scarce. This study provides a detailed assessment of pre- and postharvest losses along the millet value chain in northwestern Nigeria, focusing on producers, aggregators, and processors in Sokoto and Zamfara states—two major millet-producing regions. Millet is a nutritionally rich and climate-resilient staple that plays a critical role in Nigeria, making loss reduction in this value chain particularly important for food system resilience.

The analysis draws on a purposefully designed baseline survey conducted in 2024, covering 595 millet producers and downstream value chain actors. The study applies a novel attribute-based loss measurement methodology that captures both quantitative losses (physical grain loss) and qualitative losses (quality degradation and associated price penalties), allowing estimation of losses in both volume and value terms across multiple nodes of the value chain. In addition to descriptive loss accounting, econometric models are employed to identify factors correlated with the incidence/likelihood and intensity of preharvest and postharvest losses at the producer level.

The results show that millet losses are widespread and concentrated at early stages of the value chain. Nearly all producers experience losses, with preharvest and on-farm postharvest stages accounting for the largest share. Total losses along the value chain average about 9 percent of total volume of production and 6 percent of total value of production. These estimates are comparable to the findings by the African Postharvest Losses Information System of approximately 9 percent millet losses in postharvest production activities in Nigeria. Producer-level losses dominate overall losses, although processors also incur substantial losses during storage, handling, and transportation. Spillage, pest infestation, moisture exposure, and inadequate handling practices are the most frequently reported causes of postharvest losses among downstream actors, although losses by aggregators are generally low.

Loss patterns vary systematically across space and demographic groups. Producers in Zamfara experience significantly higher losses than those in Sokoto, with preharvest losses playing a more prominent role. Youth and male producers incur higher total losses than mature producers, while gender differences are also observed in the composition and timing of losses across production stages. These patterns underscore the importance of spatially targeted and demographically sensitive loss-reduction strategies.

Econometric results highlight the central role of technology adoption, asset ownership, and management practices in loss reduction. Higher education levels, greater asset ownership, and larger farm size are associated with lower loss intensity, while preharvest shocks significantly exacerbate postharvest losses. The use of improved transportation, winnowing, and storage technologies substantially reduces postharvest loss intensity, whereas higher rainfall and temperature during postharvest periods increase losses.

Overall, the study demonstrates that food losses in Nigeria’s millet value chain are systemic but largely preventable. Effective loss reduction requires integrated, value chain–oriented interventions that combine improved production and postharvest technologies, climate adaptation measures, infrastructure investment, and targeted support for youth and smallholders. By providing rigorous micro-level evidence across multiple value chain nodes, the study strengthens the empirical foundation for food loss reduction policies and agrifood system transformation in Nigeria.

Fruit intake among women of reproductive age in northern Tanzania: Baseline findings from the FRESH end-to-end evaluation

To ensure overall health and reduce risk of non-communicable disease (NCDs), a healthy diet low in fat, sugars and salt and high in fruit and vegetables (F&V) is recommended. In most population groups, however, F&V intake is below the World Health Organization (WHO) recommendation of 400 g per person/day. In Tanzania, a recent scoping review found that F&V intake was below recommended levels in all population groups examined. Low F&V intake is due to a complex interplay of desirability, affordability, accessibility and availability.

The CGIAR Research Initiative on Fruit and Vegetables for Sustainable Healthy Diets (FRESH), now under the CGIAR Science Program on Better Diets and Nutrition (BDN), is designing an end-to-end approach to be evaluated in Northern Tanzania, as previously described in the Research Brief 1. A baseline survey was implemented, and dietary intake and nutrient adequacies among women of reproductive age (WRA, 15-49 years of age) participating in the baseline survey were summarized elsewhere. Here we provide a deep dive into fruit intake among these women.

Saving lives through technology: Mobile phones and infant mortality

Asking the right question: Toward a research agenda for responsible GAI in agricultural extension

This study explores how generative AI (GAI) tools for agricultural extension can be designed and evaluated more responsibly. While current GAI systems offer scalable, personalized advice, they often ignore the lived realities of smallholder farmers—especially women—by relying on generic datasets and rigid evaluation metrics. We investigate three complementary methods: adversarial testing to expose gendered and contextual blind spots in model outputs; deliberative stakeholder engagement using the C-H-A-T framework, which focused on Collective knowledge, Human insight, Augmentation, and Trust, to surface value tensions and design trade-offs; and field-level insights from extension officers to uncover trust-building, diagnostic reasoning, and social intelligence absent from static GAI interactions. Together, these approaches reveal that responsible GAI requires more than technical accuracy. It demands participatory design processes that foreground user realities, surface stakeholder assumptions, and account for social and institutional context. We recommend developing gender-responsive benchmarks, embedding reflexive, participatory design methods, and modeling advisory reasoning based on real-world extension practice. The findings contribute to a growing agenda for responsible AI development—highlighting the importance of aligning GAI tools not only with technical goals, but with the social, cultural, and political contexts in which they operate.

Trade-offs and synergies in agroecosystem services with organic and integrated nutrient management in South Asian agri-food systems: Evidence from a meta-analysis

Absorption of zinc from mixed diets containing conventional Bangladeshi rice, zinc-biofortified Bangladeshi rice, or conventional Bangladeshi rice with added zinc among young children from a peri-urban community in Bangladesh

Background
Previous studies showed total absorbed zinc (TAZ) was comparable in diets containing a higher zinc rice variety or conventional rice variety (Lo-Zn CR). This study compared TAZ in a polished zinc-biofortified rice (Hi-Zn BfR) compared with Lo-Zn CR.

Objective
To measure the amount of TAZ by young Bangladeshi children from Hi-Zn BfR, Lo-Zn CR, or CR plus sufficient exogenous zinc fortificant (Lo-Zn CR+Zn) matching the zinc content of Hi-Zn BfR.

Methods
A total of 47 children 36–59-mo-old were enrolled in a crossover study. On the day 1, children received a Lo-Zn CR diet. On days 2 and 4, group A (n = 23) received 150 g of Lo-Zn CR and group B (n = 24) received 150g of Lo-Zn CR+Zn as part of a mixed diet. On days 3 and 5, both groups received 150 g of Hi-Zn BfR. Fractional zinc absorption (FZA) was measured in all diet periods using a triple-isotope tracer (oral 67-Zn and 70-Zn; intravenous 68-Zn) ratio technique; TAZ was calculated as product of zinc intake [total dietary zinc (TDZ)] and FZA.

Results
TDZ was 4.88, 6.14, and 6.70 mg/d when fed Lo-Zn CR-, Lo-Zn CR+Zn-, and Hi-Zn BfR-containing diets, respectively. Mean FZA: 0.23 ± 0.041, 0.169 ± 0.035, and 0.212 ± 0.048 for respective diets (Lo-Zn CR compared with Hi-Zn BfR: P = 0.26; Lo-Zn CR+Zn compared with Hi-Zn BfR: P < 0.001; and Lo-Zn CR compared with Lo-Zn CR+Zn: P < 0.001). Mean TAZ from respective diets were 1.13 ± 0.23, 1.04 ± 0.20, and 1.40 ± 0.33mg/d. TAZ was not significantly different between Lo-Zn CR and Lo-Zn CR+Zn diets (P = 0.52) but was significantly more in Hi-Zn BfR when compared with other 2 diets (P < 0.001 for both). Conclusions A single-day ration (150 g total) in 3 equally divided servings of Hi-Zn BfR could satisfy 47% of the recommended daily requirement of zinc (3 mg/d) for children 1–3-y old and 28% for children 4–8-y old (5 mg/d) compared with 37% and 23% from Lo-Zn CR for the same age groups, respectively. Hi-Zn BfR is a meaningful component of preventive option for childhood zinc deficiency where rice is staple.

Systematic risk profiling: Assessing compounding economic risks in developing countries

This paper presents a systematic risk profiling (SRP) framework to identify the most critical economic risks facing developing countries. Integrating computable general equilibrium (CGE) models with historical shock data and machine-learning tools, we examine how compound shocks affect development outcomes. We apply this method to Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi, simulating thousands of plausible combinations of world price, capital flow, and productivity exogenous shocks and their impacts on countries' GDP, household consumption, poverty, and undernourishment. The results reveal distinct risk profiles driven by structural differences: Kenya’s primary vulnerability is the volatility in global beverage crop prices, whereas Rwanda and Malawi face the highest risks from domestic root crop and cereal yields, respectively. These findings underscore that vulnerability is not just a function of shock magnitude, but of the specific structure of each economy. Specifically, the high economic volatility in Malawi and Rwanda is driven by the larger role of subsistence agriculture and more volatile domestic yields, whereas Kenya’s agricultural sector is more export-oriented. Unlike standard ad hoc scenario analysis, SRP quantifies both the likelihood of compound events and the relative importance of their drivers. This transparent, scalable framework provides policymakers a new tool to move beyond reactive measures and design targeted, country-specific resilience strategies for an increasingly volatile world.

Nutrition, diet, and academic performance among school-age children in urban low-income settings: A case-control study in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Objective
To examine the effects of nutrition, dietary practices, and other related factors on academic performance and IQ among children in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Methods
A case-control study was conducted among 309 children aged 6–14 years attending public and private schools in low-income districts of Addis Ababa from March to August 2023. Binary and multinomial logistic regression models were used to estimate crude (COR) and adjusted odds ratios (AOR) with 95% confidence intervals.

Results
Hand washing (AOR = 3.7; 95% CI: 1.4, 9.8), access to toilets (AOR = 3.37; 95% CI: 1.25, 9.09), and effective teaching (AOR = 2.94; 95% CI: 1.04, 8.33) good academic performance. Stunting (AOR = 0.16; 95% CI: 0.04, 0.59), underweight (AOR = 0.25; 95% CI: 0.09, 0.70), and overweight (AOR = 0.04; 95% CI: 0.01, 0.14) were associated with poor academic performance. Low meal frequency (AOR = 2.65; 95% CI: 1.06, 6.67) and teachers with BA/BSc degrees (AOR = 6.97; 95% CI: 1.14, 42.68) predicted lower IQ.

Conclusion
Many factors, especially nutrition and diet, strongly influence academic and cognitive performance; targeted school interventions improve outcomes.

When the fire ends: Straw burning, regulation, and pollution substitution

Environmental regulations can trigger unintended pollution externalities if they lack well-designed economic incentives or fail to account for the responses of polluters. This paper examines the effectiveness and unintended consequences of the Universal Prohibition on Straw Burning (UPSB) policy in China. By exploiting a generalized difference-in-differences design, we find that the UPSB policy significantly reduces agricultural fires and air pollution through top-down campaign-style enforcement. However, as straw burning is commonly used to kill pests and fertilize the soil, the UPSB policy also increases the use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, leading to magnified water pollution. Cost-benefit analysis suggests that much of the health benefit from improved air quality is offset by the health cost from degraded water quality. Our findings highlight the importance of considering the potential responses of individuals subject to the regulation when conducting policy evaluation.

The effects of cash and group therapy in the context of conflict: Evidence from a randomized evaluation in Ethiopia

The prevalence of depression remains high in low-income contexts, particularly those affected by conflict. This paper reports on a randomized controlled trial conducted in rural Ethiopia assessing the effects of a psychological (group therapy) intervention delivered by non-specialist health staff, as well as a large one-time cash transfer delivered post-therapy. The trial includes three arms comparing group therapy, cash, and both jointly to a status quo control within a sample of individuals reporting some depressive symptoms or functional impairment at baseline. The study occurred between 2022 and 2024, during a period of active armed conflict. Findings show that sixteen months post-baseline, there are no persistent positive effects of group therapy alone; cash alone improves time use and economic outcomes. Group therapy and cash jointly improve psychosocial skills, time use, and economic outcomes, and in areas not affected by conflict, the joint intervention also improves mental health.

Synopsis: Evolution of and opportunities for the fresh produce value chain in PNG

Enhancing the fresh produce value chain in PNG will contribute to wider development goals including rural economic growth, food and nutrition security and rural employment diversification. An important component of strengthening agriculture value chains in PNG will be increasing crop productivity and quality. However, equally important is strengthening agricultural markets and rural – urban linkages. Recognizing the importance of supporting greater domestic fresh produce marketing, the PNG government (GoPNG) continues to promote investments that link farmers to markets, primarily through the Fresh Produce Development Agency (FPDA) (DAL 2023).

A principal mechanism for promoting rural economic growth and strengthening agriculture value chains involves enabling the more commercially oriented smallholder farming households to significantly increase their productivity through greater use of modern farming inputs over an increasing share of local arable land (Benny et al., 2022). As the income of more productive farm households grows, their demand for locally produced goods and services increases. These goods and services are generally labor-intensive, require limited capital in their production, and are typically not marketed outside of the local community. This includes construction and associated services; transport and infrastructure services; education, health, and other social services; food and beverage processing; and the like, which facilitate greater (and often higher value) labor diversification and specialization within the rural economy.

Fresh produce value chains remain understudied in many low- and middle-income countries, despite their demonstrated role in promoting rural economic growth, improved welfare, and dietary diversity. This lack of information and analysis is particularly acute in Papua New Guinea (PNG), whereby dated or limited evidence exists on agriculture production and expansion, fresh produce trade flows, price formation and price variation over time, throughout seasons, and across regions. Understanding these production and market dynamics is essential for supporting value chain actors in developing profitable and sustainable systems that provide farmers with the incentives they need to supply fresh produce to trustworthy and transparent markets.

This synopsis draws upon 2 detailed studies (Schmidt et al., 2025; and Minten et al., 2025) that aim to inform opportunities for investment in the fresh produce value chain by: 1) analyzing remote sensing data to estimate agricultural expansion in horticulture production areas of the PNG highlands; 2) evaluating unique market flow and fresh produce price data collected over a 15-year period by FPDA; and 3) estimating the price margins of each value chain actor in the fresh produce value chain through in-depth stakeholder interviews.

The structure of this synopsis report is as follows. Section 2 provides an analysis of agriculture expansion over time and fresh produce market flows from the Highlands fresh produce corridor. Section 3 examines price trends and marketing margins across 6 key markets in diverse locations of the country. Section 4 reports on in-depth stakeholder interviews to unpackage costs along the value chain from farmgate to retailer. Section 5 concludes with key findings and implications.

Consequences of increased farm resilience on food security in Tajikistan

Unprecedented climate change, socio-economic shocks, and political conflict exacerbate food insecurity. Worsened conditions and increased vulnerability now give prominence to improving farm resilience to withstand shocks. This article aims to analyse the effect of farm resilience on food security outcomes in Tajikistan. Using panel data collected in 12 districts in the Khatlon Province of Tajikistan from 2015 to 2023, the study has the following. (a) measure farm resilience determinants (pillars) through adaptive capacity, transformation capacity, and robustness; (b) estimate the relationship between resilience pillars and food security outcomes; (c) cluster farm households based on the level of resilience pillars; and (d) estimate the effect of farm resilience on food security outcomes. The study first measures farm resilience pillars using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Next, Latent Profile Analysis (LPA) is used to classify farm households into three resilience categories: “Low Resilience”, “Medium Resilience”, and “High Resilience”. The estimation strategy involves making causal claims using LPA and Propensity Score Matching (PSM) techniques. Our results suggest a positive relationship between farm resilience and food security outcomes. Our findings also confirm that “High Resilience” and “Medium Resilience” profiles experience better dietary diversity, higher fruit and vegetable consumption, or decreased household hunger, compared to the “Low Resilience” profile. Such a positive relationship underlines the importance of strengthening farm resilience. Further development agendas for Tajikistan should consider resilience thinking, especially in shock-prone zones. Objectives: (a) measure farm resilience determinants (pillars) through adaptive capacity, transformation capacity, and robustness; (b) estimate the relationship between resilience pillars and food security outcomes; (c) cluster farm households based on the level of resilience pillars; and (d) estimate the effect of farm resilience on food security outcomes. The study first measures farm resilience pillars using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Next, Latent Profile Analysis (LPA) is used to classify farm households into three resilience categories: “Low Resilience”, “Medium Resilience”, and “High Resilience”. The estimation strategy involves making causal claims using LPA and Propensity Score Matching (PSM) techniques. Our results suggest a positive relationship between farm resilience and food security outcomes. Our findings also confirm that “High Resilience” and “Medium Resilience” profiles experience better dietary diversity, higher fruit and vegetable consumption, or decreased household hunger, compared to the “Low Resilience” profile. Such a positive relationship underlines the importance of strengthening farm resilience. Further development agendas for Tajikistan should consider resilience thinking, especially in shock-prone zones.

Social protection and gender: Policy, practice, and research

Gender considerations in the design and delivery of programs are critical for social protection to achieve its primary objectives of reducing poverty and vulnerability. First, prevalence and risk factors for poverty differ by gender, as does the nature of vulnerability. Thus, to sustainably reduce poverty for all, strategies must take gender into account. Second, gender shapes the impact of social protection. Not only are the effects of programs mediated by gender norms and intra house hold dynamics, but gender differences in opportunities, constraints, and preferences determine the extent to which dif fer ent individuals can participate in and benefit from social protection. Third, entrenched societal inequities imply that women and girls are often disproportionately held back from achieving their potential. Addressing these inequities through social protection may be particularly promising to achieve longer- term poverty- reduction goals, increase productive efficiency, and promote a better, more sustainable future. Lastly, to the extent that social protection intrinsically aims to increase equity, there may be an implicit mandate to prioritize women and girls.

Market channel and other drivers of tomato farmer production and handling practices in Nigeria

Non-contract farming arrangements remain the dominant marketing option for poor, often food-insecure smallholder farmers in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs), yet such farming arrangements are less studied than contract farming. Using a case study of 1,673 Nigerian tomato farmers, this study examined whether selling to midstream actors such as wholesalers and aggregators (via informal market arrangements) supports farmers’ adoption of good agricultural practices. We first explored the drivers of farmer sales to different market channels using a multinomial logit model. Then, using multivariate probit analysis, we identified factors associated with the adoption of good agricultural practices (GAP) and good handling practices (GHP) with particular attention to a farmers’ market channel. We found that larger smallholder farmers using modern irrigation are more likely to sell to midstream actors. We also found that selling to wholesalers and aggregators is an important determinant of farmers’ adoption of GAP and GHP, and this holds even for the smallest smallholder farmers. These results confirm that even where informal trading arrangements dominate (as is common in most LMICs), value chain actors in the midstream of food supply chains can support farmer adoption of GAP and GHP. These relationships have important implications for food security via enhancing the livelihoods of smallholder producers and improving the availability and safety of fresh produce for consumers, and thus should be leveraged in the design and implementation of efforts to expand farmer adoption of GAP and GHP.

IFPRI’s research on agricultural insurance

For over 40 years, IFPRI has been a driver of innovation in agricultural insurance, providing partners with evidence, innovative tools, and policy solutions to improve the availability, affordability, and quality of agricultural insurance. Our research evaluates product performance, identifies barriers faced by farmers—especially women—and insurers, and tests innovations to strengthen existing insurance and develop new instruments.

Relative validity of interviewer-administered 24-hour recalls collected by telephone and in-person compared with weighed food records among rural Sri Lankan adults

Background
Quantitative dietary assessment is hindered by cost, time, and logistical burdens. Collecting 24-hour recall (24HR) dietary data by phone may be particularly advantageous in rural areas.

Objectives
To assess the criterion and relative validity and costs of phone compared with in-person 24HR compared with observed weighed food records (WFR), a reference measure for true intake.

Methods
We used a randomized crossover design to collect phone and in-person 24HRs from 103 rural Sri Lankan adults, each matched to a WFR collected on the reference day. Agreement was assessed using equivalence testing with 15% error bounds and concordance correlation coefficients. Memory and portion size estimation errors were examined using descriptive statistics. Activity-based costing was used to estimate 24HR costs using expenditures and micro-costing.

Results
Compared with WFR, respondents underreported energy intake by 263 kcal (12.6%) in phone 24HR and 229 kcal (10.9%) in in-person 24HR, primarily due to portion size misestimation. Mean intakes of protein and 6 micronutrients were equivalent between phone 24HR and WFR. Although no nutrients were equivalent for in-person recalls, the 2 recall methods had relative equivalence for energy, carbohydrates, fat, zinc, and niacin. The average concordance correlation coefficient was slightly higher for phone recalls, whereas memory error was lower for in-person recalls. Costs per respondent were $254 for in-person 24HR and $186 for phone 24HR in a most likely implementation scenario.

Conclusions
Among rural Sri Lankan adults, phone-based 24HR were comparable to in-person 24HR in estimating nutrient intakes, although both methods underestimated true intakes. Phone-based recalls were less expensive and performed at least as accurately as those collected in-person.

Hope, hard lessons and the path to better nutrition

Ozone pollution reduction partially offsets the negative impact of climate change mitigation efforts on global hunger

Studies warning of the potential negative effects of climate mitigation on food security through the competing use of land for bioenergy and afforestation have overlooked the impact of reduced ozone and its potential enhancement of crop yields. Here we use six global agro-economic models to compare the impacts of climate change with climate mitigation policy and ozone reduction on agriculture. We find that ozone reduction could reduce the negative impact of a 1.5 °C-consistent climate change mitigation policy on global hunger by 15% in 2050. Sub-Saharan Africa and India, where hunger is most severe, account for 56% of this global reduction. Our findings indicate that the negative effects of climate mitigation on global hunger could be partially offset by the ozone reduction impact.

Disruptions to agrifood value chains in fragile and conflict-affected states: Evidence from Myanmar

Agrifood value chains (AVCs) play crucial roles in food security in fragile and conflict-affected economies where there are widespread challenges and disruptions to business operations, food access, and incomes. Yet, given these challenges, safe data collection is challenging in conflict-affected settings and, as a result, the evidence on the disruptions AVC businesses face is thin. In this paper, we rely on novel panel data from AVC businesses in Myanmar, one of 7 countries in the world with extreme conflict. This short paper documents the disruptions experienced by businesses at several levels of the food supply chain, including farmers, input retailers, crop traders, rice millers, and food vendors. We also provide evidence on the implications for prices by analyzing price changes over this period: farm input and sales prices using farm survey data, food retail using data from food vendors, and dietary cost estimates combining consumption and price data. Our results highlight vulnerabilities in food supply chains in fragile and conflict-affected settings. Potential opportunities to strengthen food supply chains in such settings include ensuring access to banking and financial services; minimizing transportation disruptions to mitigate widening gaps between producer and consumer prices; and maintaining access to fuel and electricity as well as cellphone internet networks. Efforts to support these areas could stabilize food availability and reduce food prices, while also increasing farm-gate shares of food prices thereby supporting rural incomes.

JEL codes: Q13; Q11; 013

Haemoglobin concentration thresholds that discriminate functional outcomes among children aged 6–30 months in eight countries: A pooled analysis of individual participant data

Introduction The WHO cut-offs to define anaemia among children (haemoglobin, Hb <105 g/L in 6–23 months and <110 g/L in 24–59 months) are based on the distribution of Hb concentrations in a healthy population. Our objective was to identify Hb values that best discriminate functional outcomes among children aged 6–30 months. Methods We used previously compiled datasets from an individual participant data meta-analysis of effects of small quantity lipid-based nutrient supplements. Participants were eligible for this pooled analysis if they had Hb measured at 6–30 months and data on at least one functional outcome of interest, which included physical activity and sleep patterns, and language, socioemotional and motor development. We stratified the datasets by child age in 3-month intervals and analysed associations of Hb with both concurrent and subsequently measured (longitudinal) outcomes. If Hb significantly discriminated the 25th, 50th or 75th percentile of the outcome based on the pooled area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), we identified the Hb value with the highest concordance probability as the best discriminatory threshold. Results 11 datasets from 8 countries including 27 626 children were analysed. Hb significantly discriminated 21 of 47 concurrent and 11 of 32 longitudinal Hb-outcome associations. Best Hb discriminatory thresholds ranged from 102 to 111 g/L for concurrent physical activity outcomes, 103–116 g/L for concurrent developmental outcomes, and 109–117 g/L for longitudinal developmental outcomes. The I2 for the pooled AUC analysis indicated generally low to moderate heterogeneity across studies. Conclusions The current WHO cut-offs to define anaemia among children are in the middle to upper range of Hb values that best discriminate concurrent physical activity and development, and are in the lower range of values that best discriminate subsequent child development. Along with other types of evidence, this study provides additional evidence to inform Hb cut-offs to define anaemia among young children.

Agriculture after independence

Market flows and price patterns of fresh produce in Papua New Guinea

This study analyzes the fresh produce market in Papua New Guinea (PNG) using unique market flow and price data collected by the Fresh Produce Development Agency (FPDA) over the past 15 years across multiple markets. We document substantial flows of fresh produce from diverse production zones to major urban centers, with Port Moresby emerging as the primary terminal market. Hard fresh produce and sweet potato supplied there largely originate from the Highlands, while other staples and soft fresh produce are mostly sourced from other regions. Price analysis reveals four key patterns: (i) fresh produce prices have risen significantly relative to non-food products, particularly for items less supplied by the Highlands; (ii) prices exhibit strong seasonality—lowest at year-end and highest mid-year (June–August)—reflecting major cultivation periods and possibly seasonality in household labor availability; (iii) marketing margins have increased substantially, especially for soft fresh produce, creating new opportunities for Highland producers to compete in Port Moresby markets; and (iv) in 2023–2025, marketing and wastage costs accounted for the largest share of retail prices in Port Moresby—up to 85 percent for cabbage—while producer shares ranged from 15 percent for cabbage to 61 percent for Irish potatoes. These findings underscore evolving market dynamics and the critical role of supply chain efficiency in PNG’s fresh produce sector.

Scoping report: Understanding the fresh produce value chain in Papua New Guinea

The Government of Papua New Guinea (GoPNG) aims to promote agricultural transformation through strategic investments to support greater commercialization via increases in production output and quality. To accomplish this goal, the GoPNG recently released the National Agriculture Sector Plan (NASP) 2024-2033 which acknowledges the fresh produce sector’s potential to contribute to poverty alleviation and economic growth via increased income for rural farmers (Department of Agriculture and Livestock 2023). With growing urbanization and expanding mining operations, the demand for fresh produce is increasing within the country (Chang et al. 2015). While the challenges that PNG faces to promote a more competitive fresh produce agriculture sector are not simple hurdles to overcome, they are not impossible barriers to surpass either.

This report sets out to achieve three goals: 1) provide an assessment of PNG’s fresh produce farming and sales trends using remote sensing data and recent data collected by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Fresh Produce Development Agency (FPDA); 2) report on current programming (namely Market for Village Farmers) aimed at supporting fresh produce value chain development; and 3) inform future programming of fresh produce value chain support through a detailed account of a scoping study of the fresh produce sector conducted in June, 2025 and November, 2025.

The Urban Food Environments and Diets (UFED) Tool

How do urban food environments shape diets and nutritional status? The UFED tool offers guidance on suggested methods, indicators, and practical tips for assessing diets and food environments in urban and peri-urban settings, many of which may also be relevant for rural contexts.

Myanmar monthly food price report - February 2026

Rice prices in February 2026 remained significantly lower year-on-year (down 13 percent), although they increased slightly month-on-month, indicating an early recovery following several months of decline driven by lower international prices and increased domestic supply. While easing pressure on consumers, these trends continue to raise concerns for paddy producers facing rising input costs.

Export crop prices strengthened this month, with pulses and maize increasing month-on-month supported by the revised foreign exchange policy and stronger international market demand.

Vegetable prices showed mixed year-on-year trends but increased month-on-month, partly driven by seasonal demand during the Tabaung festival period. Supply disruptions, including weather-related production impacts, also influenced price movements for key crops such as potato and chili.

Animal-sourced food prices continued to rise sharply year-on-year, led by mutton, chicken, and fish, reflecting supply constraints, disease outbreaks, and strong export demand.

The war in Iran has led to a partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than a quarter of the world’s oil exports and 20–30 percent of global fertilizer exports pass. These developments are especially concerning for Myanmar’s agrifood system, which depends heavily on fuel for transport, irrigation, mechanization, and processing. In addition, disruptions in fertilizer supply could adversely affect the upcoming monsoon season.

Training video: Implementing WEAGov