IFPRI Datasets

Changes in height-for-age of Egyptian children from 1995 to 2014: Implications for improving child health outcomes

Background
Stunting is a serious health problem in Egypt. Stunting rates and height-for-age z-score (HAZ) distributions changed notably in Egypt over time, yet the factors that led to these changes remain unknown. This study examines the factors associated with these changes and provides important considerations for designing interventions to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of ending all forms of malnutrition by 2030.

Methods
Leveraging data from Egypt’s Demographic and Health Survey for the years 1995, 2003, and 2014, we employ a Recentered Influence Function (RIF) approach that goes beyond the conventional way of measuring stunting as a binary indicator to examine changes across the entire HAZ distribution. The RIF decomposes changes in the HAZ distribution over time into differences attributable to changes in the levels of the determinants of nutrition (covariate effects) and in the strength of the association between these determinants and HAZ (coefficient effects).

Results
The stylized facts show a puzzling increase in stunting rates despite improvements in the level of the determinants of nutrition. Our RIF results attribute the change in stunting rates and other parts of the HAZ distribution primarily to changes in the association between the determinants of nutrition and HAZ (coefficient effects) rather than in the level of the determinants (covariate effects). The results also show that the determinants of nutrition could have heterogeneous impacts at different quantiles of the HAZ distribution.

Conclusion
To reduce stunting rates and achieve the SDG of ending malnutrition, our findings highlight the need for targeted interventions. Interventions should be geographically targeted, promote gender and income equality, improve maternal nutrition, and expand access to better sanitation facilities. This is in addition to wealth redistribution and reforming Egypt’s subsidy program to focus on nutritious food.

Associations between exposure to nutrition, WASH interventions and children’s academic performance in Ethiopia: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Poor nutrition and inadequate WASH (water, sanitation, and hygiene) practices significantly impact children’s health, nutrition, and cognitive development, especially in low-income settings. These factors further aggravate the incidence of undernutrition, weaken the immune system, increase susceptibility to illnesses and reduce cognitive performance. Evidence on the effectiveness of existing WASH interventions is needed.

Objective

This review evaluated the effectiveness of nutritional and WASH interventions on the academic performance of children in Ethiopia.

Methods

A systematic search of Cochrane, DOAJ, Google Scholar, and PubMed (2010–2024) was conducted using MeSH terms and keywords related to WASH. Two independent reviewers screened studies and extracted data. Eligible studies included cross-sectional and cohort studies on Ethiopian schoolchildren with quantifiable academic outcomes. The JBI SUMARI was used to assess bias, and the GRADE approach was used to evaluate evidence quality. The meta-analysis used a random-effects model in Stata and reported pooled RRs with 95% CIs. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses examined moderators such as study design, intervention type, and sample size.

Results

A total of 19 studies, 16 cross-sectional (n= 16) and three prospective (n= 3) cohort studies with a total of 9034 participants, were included. The random effects model revealed a significant improvement in academic performance among students receiving both nutrition and WASH, with a pooled large positive effect size of 2.05 (95% CI: 1.26, 2.28; I2=). In the subgroup meta-analysis, the effect of the intervention was more positive among those who skipped breakfast (3.47, 95% CI: 0.47, 6.47), chronic iodine deficiency (4.49, 95% CI: 4.08, 4.90), food insecurity (2.810, 95% CI: 1.281, 4.339), and underweight (0.61, 95% CI: 0.46, 0.75).

Conclusion

Despite moderate variability and some risk of bias, the evidence supports the integration of comprehensive nutrition and WASH programs into school health initiatives. Future research should focus on long-term effects and cost-effectiveness.

Farmers’ preferences and willingness to accept incentives for adopting sustainable agricultural practices in India

Sustainable agricultural practices are increasingly promoted to mitigate the impacts of climate change on agriculture. However, adoption at the farm level remains limited, often due to trade-offs between tradable and non-tradable ecosystem services. This study examines farmers’ preferences for resource conservation practices and their willingness to accept incentive payments for their adoption in the Indian state of Punjab, where rice has become the most important crop despite its cultivation being unsupportive of its climatic conditions. Following the discrete choice experiment approach, the study included 500 farmers with the following attributes: ecosystem service benefits, income compensation, and carbon credit price. The findings reveal that farmers showed a strong preference for adopting improved farm practices. Saving water and avoiding residue burning are the two most preferred ecosystem benefits by the farmers. However, farmers’ preferences are strongly influenced by factors including carbon credit prices, income compensation, socioeconomic characteristics, and their risk aversion capacity. The estimation of extended random parameter logit (RPL) indicated that switching to direct rice seeding requires compensation of Rs. 29,223/ha and Rs. 29,178/ha for reallocating area from rice to legumes, ceteris paribus. These findings are crucial for policymakers in restructuring the existing incentive structure to accelerate the adoption of resource conservation practices in India.

“If you want to have sex you can, if you don’t, you don’t have to”: A qualitative evaluation of the Unite for a Better Life couples program to prevent intimate partner violence in rural Ethiopia

Background
Gender-transformative programing targeting couples is an important strategy to reduce intimate partner violence (IPV), but questions around efficacy and safety remain. This qualitative study explores indications of change and unintended consequences of the gender-transformative Unite for a Better Life (UBL) intervention, using data from the couples’ and control arms of a cluster randomized controlled trial (cRCT) in Ethiopia. The cRCT found no impact on physical and psychological IPV and weak evidence of reductions in sexual IPV in the couples’ arm.

Methods
We analyzed 33 facilitator feedback questionnaires and 29 in-depth interviews (IDIs) among couples conducted approximately 30-months post intervention; 14 participated in UBL delivered to couples, and 15 were from the control arm. IDIs were conducted separately with each member of the couple and analyzed thematically in Dedoose to explore indications of change attributed to UBL.

Results
UBL couples attributed improved household task-sharing, communication, and joint decision-making to the program. Men and women developed more gender-equitable attitudes, leading to more fulfilling relationships. Additionally, most participants in violent relationships reported that UBL led to a reduction or cessation of physical and psychological IPV, and a complete cessation of sexual IPV. These effects were largely attributed to shifts at the individual level for men. Men developed better anger management skills, reduced their alcohol consumption, and increased their knowledge around the consequences of IPV. At the relational level, couples reported increased communication, particularly around sexual desire, and reduced conflict. Additionally, participants reported normative shifts, including decreased acceptance of IPV. There were no reports of changes in control participants nor of major unintended consequences.

Conclusions
When delivered to couples, UBL shows promise in shifting individual-level male factors and relational dynamics and reducing conflict and IPV. This suggests that engaging men in couples can be an effective and safe strategy for IPV prevention.

Assessing the role of food MSMEs in providing employment for women and youth in Ethiopia

Micro-, Small-, and Medium-Sized Enterprises (MSMEs) are often important sources of employment in the food retail environment of Low- and Middle-Income Countries. As a result, policy makers might consider promoting job creation through MSMEs operating in the food environment. In this paper, we study a unique data set collected in two sites in Ethiopia to draw potential policy lessons for job creation based on the characteristics of MSMEs operating in the food environment. The data were collected from among 1,686 food vendors in a neighborhood of Addis Ababa and Butajira, Ethiopia, as part of an effort to better understand the relationship between consumers and the food environment in Ethiopia. Our descriptive analysis suggests that a large share of the enterprises in our sample do not employ anyone beyond the owner, and female-owned enterprises are less likely to hire workers than male-owned enterprises. Moreover, the profits per worker are lower than the cost of a healthy diet, suggesting that without an improvement in profitability it is unlikely that hiring labor would help improve nutritional status. So while the sampled MSMEs may have the potential to deliver food at lower cost, they have limited ability to generate additional employment.

The two sides of migration in Central America: Aggregate and distributional impacts in Guatemala

International migration affects labor supply, production patterns, and external income flows in origin countries, yet our understanding of its economy-wide and distributional consequences remains limited, particularly with regard to the role of return migration. This study integrates detailed microdata on migrant profiles into a general equilibrium model applied to Guatemala to examine how emigration and return migration affect macroeconomic performance, sectoral dynamics, and household welfare. We simulate three scenarios: a reference scenario reflecting recent-historical emigration patterns (MIG-0), a reduced-emigration scenario (MIG-1), and a net-return migration scenario (MIG-2), capturing recent shifts in emigration and return flows by skill level. Results reveal trade-offs between aggregate economic performance and distributional impacts across households. Compared to a baseline economy with no mobility, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rises modestly under the reference scenario (+0.2 percent) and by additional 0.3–0.5 percentage points under the reduced-emigration and net-return scenarios, driven by expanded labor supply from returnees and currency depreciation. Non-agro-processing manufacturing shows the largest expansion (up to 1.8 percent), reflecting its strong labor-absorption potential. Household welfare, especially among remittance-dependent households, is highly sensitive to these flows, with income and consumption declining under the two counterfactual migration scenarios. These findings underscore the need for policies that facilitate returnee reintegration and strengthen social protection for remittance-dependent households, ensuring that the macroeconomic gains from migration adjustments translate into equitable welfare improvements.

Tajikistan Rural Household Survey (TRHS) 2025

The Tajikistan Rural Household Survey (TRHS) is a survey data collection effort led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Tajik Academy of Agricultural Sciences (TAAS). It is an ambitious attempt to generate data critical to filling pertinent evidence gaps on the livelihoods and the resilience of rural households in Tajikistan. The TRHS interviewed 3,267 households in the country's three most populated regions (Sughd Region, Khatlon Region, and Districts of Republic Subordination).

The in-person household survey includes a household-level questionnaire that was administered to any knowledgeable adult household member. An accompanying individual-level questionnaire was administered in private to one randomly selected household member, aged 18 to 54 years old. In households were no adult was present in the specified age range, another household member 55 years or older was allowed to respond to the individual-level questionnaire. The dataset also consists of a brief enumerator survey.

Uncovering the climate vulnerability of China’s poverty alleviation frontiers

Food subsidies in India: Revisiting the estimates

There is a view that the fis­cal bur­den of food sub­si­dies in India is un­sus­tain­able. Yet pop­u­lar de­bate and dis­cus­sion around the costs of these food sub­si­dies, rel­a­tive to their ben­e­fits, are mis­lead­ing for two rea­sons. First, they typ­i­cally treat re­ported bud­getary sub­sidy es­ti­mates—i.e. the fis­cal cost to the gov­ern­ment of the dis­tri­b­u­tion of food via ra­tion shops—as equiv­a­lent to “trans­fers” to ben­e­fi­cia­ries. Sec­ondly, they tend to focus ex­clu­sively on con­sumers. In doing so, they ne­glect the two-part na­ture of the food dis­tri­b­u­tion sys­tem, which in­cludes pay­ments to farm­ers at the time of pro­cure­ment. This paper ex­am­ines ways of mea­sur­ing the costs and value of the food sub­sidy. We pre­sent es­ti­mates that com­bine the im­plicit value of ben­e­fits to con­sumers aris­ing from the re­duced price of grain sold to con­sumers via ra­tion shops, with im­plicit ben­e­fits to farm­ers, in terms of the price dif­fer­ence be­tween what farm­ers are paid by the gov­ern­ment and what they would have ob­tained in the open mar­ket. This ap­proach shows that each rupee of the “food sub­sidy” re­ported in gov­ern­ment ac­counts rep­re­sents a trans­fer worth Rs 1.29 to con­sumers and farm­ers, on av­er­age, over the pe­riod 2001–02 to 2022–23. That is, each rupee trans­ferred to these groups is as­so­ci­ated with a cost of Rs 0.79 to the gov­ern­ment.

Using method of moments quantile regression to examine the influences of fishery operations and their ramifications for marine water contamination

This study aims to investigate the dynamic impact of the fishing industry on marine water contamination in 27 European countries by taking into account the roles of fisheries output, the use of fossil fuels, economic development, and governance between 1990 and 2022. The results, which used a novel technique called the Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) in addition to factors that are fixed effect, demonstrated that, at most quantiles, there was a significant positive correlation between fishing production and marine water contamination. At the earliest and latest quantiles, fishery production significantly exacerbates marine water contamination, with a smaller impact at the lowest and a larger impact at the highest. Additionally, the data indicate that affluent EU14 countries produce more fish than developing EU13 countries, which has a significant and negative impact on the contamination of marine water. Marine water contamination from the usage of fossil fuels has increased significantly in the EU13 developing countries as compared to the EU14 wealthy countries. Policymakers can reduce marine water contamination in EU14 and EU13 countries by using eco-friendly fishing gear, more sustainable fishing methods, and energy technologies like wave and tidal power.

Political economy of planting for food and jobs input subsidy policy process in Ghana: An application of the Kaleidoscope Model

The Planting for Food and Jobs (PFJ) input subsidy policy was Ghana’s flagship agricultural programme from 2017 to 2025, designed to increase agricultural productivity, enhance food security, create jobs, and improve rural livelihoods through targeted support to smallholder farmers. Despite its prominence, there has been little systematic analysis of the political economy of the policy process that shaped it. This study applies the Kaleidoscope Model of Policy Change (KM), a framework developed for analysing development policy processes, to examine how the PFJ input subsidy policy was placed on the agenda, designed, adopted, and implemented. A qualitative research design was employed, involving 50 key informant interviews with policymakers, programme implementers, farmer-based organisations, and development partners, alongside two focus group discussions with farmers. Data were coded and analysed thematically using the KM framework to identify drivers, enablers, and constraints across the different stages of the policy process. The findings indicate that focusing events and policy coalitions were crucial in placing PFJ on the agenda. Policy design was influenced by the urgency of addressing declining productivity, ideological factors, and cost–benefit assessments. Adoption was shaped by the authority of advocates, the limited resistance of veto players, and favourable political timing, reflecting the perception that presidential initiatives often become policy priorities. Implementation, although constrained by budget shortfalls and logistical challenges, benefited from institutional capacity, budgetary allocations, and sustained advocacy. Overall, PFJ reached its target number of beneficiaries, raised productivity, enhanced food security, created jobs, and reduced dependence on food imports, despite only 69% of planned resources being released. However, limited tailored support for youth and women remains a key gap. The study demonstrates the value of political economy analysis for agricultural policy and recommends structured engagement with the private sector in subsidized input delivery from agenda setting through to implementation.

The impact of a continuum of care intervention from prevention to treatment on child wasting compared to usual community group activities: A cluster randomized controlled trial in Mali

Background
Child wasting is associated with a high mortality risk and remains a persistent public health challenge.

Objective
This study aimed to evaluate the impact of an intervention strengthening the continuum of care of child wasting from prevention, screening, and referral to treatment in Mali.

Methods
A two-arm cluster-randomized controlled trial was conducted using two study designs to evaluate impact and pathways: i) a longitudinal study of children enrolled at 6 months (n=2,324) with monthly follow-up for 3–6 months to assess wasting prevalence (primary outcome); ii) a longitudinal study of all children 6–23 months admitted to outpatient therapeutic programs (OTP; n=7,104) assessing recovery and adherence. Additional OTP coverage surveys were conducted at the end of the study. In both study arms, nutrition activity support groups (NASG) screened children for wasting and provided caregiver behavior change communication (BCC). The intervention arm additionally received small-quantity lipid-based nutrient supplements (SQ-LNS), child-centered BCC, family-led screening, and follow-up on referred wasting cases to support OTP admission and adherence.

Results
The intervention did not impact wasting prevalence but reduced the incidence of wasting (relative risk (RR): 0.80, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.64, 0.99) and severe acute malnutrition (SAM) (RR: 0.71, 95%CI: 0.57, 0.89). The intervention significantly increased wasting screening coverage by 37 pp (95%CI: 31, 44) and SAM treatment coverage by 15 pp (95%CI: 0.35, 30). No impacts of the intervention on OTP recovery or adherence were found. NASGs often replaced the monthly home visits with community gatherings to deliver the intervention. NASGs also often distributed SQ-LNS to children they identified with wasting instead of referring them to the OTP.

Conclusions
Strengthening the continuum of care of wasting through community groups reduced the incidence of wasting and SAM and improved screening coverage, which translated into a modest gain in SAM treatment coverage.

Adding small quantity lipid-based nutrient supplements to an enhanced homestead food production program improves child hemoglobin, iron and vitamin A status in rural Burkina Faso: A cluster randomized controlled trial

Background
Enhanced homestead food production programs (EHFP) including nutrition behavior change communication and women’s empowerment activities have limited impacts on child nutrition. This may be due to short program duration or the absence of interventions to improve water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) and access to nutritious foods.

Objective
We assessed impacts on child anemia, micronutrient status and anthropometry of prior village exposure to an EHFP, and of adding WASH alone or WASH with daily small quantity-lipid based nutrient supplements (SQ-LNS).

Design
This 2y longitudinal cluster-randomized controlled trial (2014-2016) included 60 villages in Burkina Faso randomized to four groups (15 per group): (1) EHFP-2014, (2) EHFP-2014+WASH, (3) EHFP-2010+WASH, and (4) EHFP-2010+WASH+SQ-LNS. Groups 3 and 4 had previously received EHFP (2010-2012). We assessed impacts on child anemia and micronutrient status (n=1,704; 3-12.9 mo at baseline) and anthropometry (n=2,308; 0-12.9 mo at baseline) using difference-in-difference (DID) specifications. We controlled for covariates, adjusted for clustering, and assessed interactive effects by child age at baseline. The trial was registered with clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02236468).

Results
We found no impact of prior exposure to EHFP (groups 2 vs 3) on the outcomes examined. Adding WASH (groups 1 vs 2) reduced anemia (hemoglobin (Hb)<11 g/dL) (DID=9.43 pp, p<0.01) and led to a decline in weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ) (DID -0.11±0.04, p=0.01). Adding SQ-LNS (groups 3 vs 4) increased Hb (DID=0.26±0.13 g/dL, p<0.05), plasma ferritin (DID=7.61±2.69 μg/L, p<0.01), and retinol binding protein (DID=0.07±0.02 umol/L, p<0.01) concentrations. Effects were larger in children <6 mo at baseline, where providing SQ-LNS (>6 mo) positively impacted Hb, plasma ferritin, height-for-age Z-score, WAZ, and underweight.

Conclusions
Using EHFP to deliver WASH and SQ-LNS reduced child anemia and improved micronutrient status. Anthropometric improvements were found in children who joined the program before 6 mo of age and were exposed for the whole complementary feeding period.

Beyond the 24-hour recall: Aligning dietary diversity metrics with nutrient physiology

Changing rural labor markets and welfare in Malawi

Cash transfers relax climate-induced mobility constraints in Kenya

The use of migration as an adaptation strategy is now recognized by scholars and policymakers as a key response to climate change. Cash transfer programs, now being implemented worldwide, also have the potential to facilitate adaptation and promote resilience in low- and middle-income countries. We investigate the extent to which a cash transfer program in Kenya promoted the mobility of household members due to climate shocks, leveraging exogenous variation in local deviations from the historical climate and the administration of the program through a randomized controlled trial. Our findings indicate that beneficiary households were less likely to reduce migration amid cold spells, likely via shifts in education-related migration. We also find that heat spells ubiquitously encourage new members to join the household, while cold spells have the opposite effect, and that cash transfers do not appear to alter these relationships. Together the results suggest that cold spells can trap migrants in temperate, low-resource settings and that cash transfers can partially alleviate these constraints. Modeling migration and complementary strategies in the presence of climate tipping points will become necessary to predict when more permanent migration will be triggered and modifying social assistance will become necessary.

Modeling the association between repeated measures of hemoglobin during pregnancy and adverse birth outcomes

Youth in relation to agroecology: practices, promises, and perceptions in five countries

In the context of rising youth populations in many low- and middle-income countries, coupled with high youth unemployment and aging farmer populations, this paper asks in what ways agroecology, as a sustainable alternative to the conventional agricultural practices and paradigm, attracts youth to farming and rural-based livelihoods. We draw on empirical data from semi-structured interviews and photovoice conducted with young women and men in five countries: Kenya, India, Peru, Tunisia, and Zimbabwe. In our discussion, we highlight which dimensions and aspects of agroecology resonate with youth and why.

Uncovering bottlenecks and innovative solutions for scaling small-scale irrigation through a system approach and design thinking: Evidence from Nigeria

CONTEXT
Small-scale irrigation (SSI) is central to food system transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa, yet its scaling remains low in Nigeria despite the apparent demand and policy narratives.

OBJECTIVE
Examine intermediary ‘missing middle’ barriers to SSI scaling and co-create solutions for socially inclusive, environmentally sustainable, and institutionally coherent scaling of SSI.

METHODS
We integrated Agricultural Innovation Systems (AIS) theory with a Human-Centered Design (HCD) approach to examine SSI diffusion in a Responsible Scaling lens. For qualitative study, a series of HCD workshops were conducted in three geographies (Kano, Oyo, and FCT) with a total of 85 stakeholders drawn from government institutions, financial organizations, and private irrigation technology suppliers. To complement qualitative insights, we analyzed the 2023 National Agricultural Sample Survey microdata to generate a national snapshot of irrigation prevalence, methods, and water sources. This is a nationally representative data from sample of 152,485 households and over 76 million agricultural plots included in the Nigeria National Agricultural Sample Survey (NASS) 2022/2023.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
The study demonstrates that Nigeria's SSI bottlenecks stem not simply from farmer reluctance or technological ignorance but primarily from systemic intermediation failures across policy coordination, finance, and market supply chains—producing a “missing-middle” ecosystem. These failures include fragmented government mandates, high lender risk perceptions, weak supplier networks, gendered exclusion, and pervasive information gaps. Applying responsible scaling (RS) we show how scaling of SSI is being hindered by institutional fragmentation, liquidity constraints, gender exclusion, and data/information deficiency.

SIGNIFICANCE
The study presents co-created innovation pathways, including a national SSI coordination platform, blended-finance mechanisms, supplier hub models, and gender-responsive financing, mapped to AIS functions to guide responsible, inclusive, and climate-resilient scaling. The integrated AIS–HCD–RS approach advances system learning and participatory co-design and offers a practical methodology for responsible scaling of agricultural innovation.

Food supply implications of healthy diet consumption in Senegal by 2050

Targeting social assistance in fragile settings: An experiment in community-based targeting

Role of credit access, improved varieties, and gender dynamics in commercialization of cassava seeds in Nigeria

Cassava seed entrepreneurship is critical for strengthening seed systems and advancing agricultural transformation in Nigeria. This study examines the determinants of smallholder participation in cassava seed entrepreneurship and simulates the effects of targeted policy interventions using survey data from 993 cassava farmers in Benue State. The analysis applies a binary logit framework with counterfactual scenario simulations and production-regime, specific estimations to account for heterogeneity between low- and high-productivity environments, alongside additional robustness checks. The results show that access to credit (dy/dx = 13.2%, p <0.01), adoption of improved cassava varieties (dy/dx = 14.3%, p < 0.01), use of an area-calculation mobile application (dy/dx = 7.1%, p < 0.05), and access to extension services (dy/dx = 5.2%, p < 0.05) significantly increase the likelihood of participation in cassava seed entrepreneurship. Gender-disaggregated analysis indicates that male farmers have a modest but meaningful advantage (β = 0.92, dy/dx = 5.8%), reflecting differential access to productive resources and institutional support. The production-regime analysis reveals important structural differences in participation drivers. In low-productivity environments, participation is primarily constrained by financial capital, with credit access emerging as the dominant determinant. In contrast, in high-productivity environments, participation is more strongly influenced by technological complementarities, particularly adoption of improved varieties, digital decision-support tools, and extension services that enhance productivity and market coordination. These findings highlight that entrepreneurial engagement is context-dependent rather than uniform across farming systems. Policy simulations further indicate that the joint provision of credit and improved varieties could increase participation probabilities by 36.1 percentage points for men, 32.0 percentage points for youth (≤35 years), and 25.8 percentage points for women, demonstrating substantial untapped entrepreneurial potential among women and youth if structural barriers are relaxed. As part of the robustness analysis, conflict exposure, used as a proxy for local political instability, shows a positive and statistically significant association with participation, suggesting that farmers in conflict-affected environments may adopt cassava seed entrepreneurship as a resilience or income-diversification strategy. Consistency across alternative specifications confirms that institutional access, technological adoption, and productive capacity remain more decisive for participation than most demographic characteristics. Overall, the study underscores the need for gender and youth-responsive policies that integrate financial inclusion, technological support, institutional strengthening, context-sensitive interventions as well as attention to productivity regimes and local security conditions, to promote inclusive and resilient cassava seed systems in Nigeria.

C’est la vie! Mixed impacts of an edutainment television series in West Africa

Edutainment is a promising tool for changing behavior at scale, yet little is known about how to maximize impacts. We undertake an experimental evaluation of a popular West African television series, C’est la vie!, delivered through film clubs targeted at adolescent girls and young women in rural Senegal. We examine impacts on violence against women and girls and sexual and reproductive health. Results show C’est la vie! improved knowledge on both domains three months after film clubs ended, as well as violence-related attitudes nine months later, however, had no impact on behaviors. We investigate design components intended to strengthen impacts, generally finding no additional impacts from post-screening discussions, engaging men, and podcasts. Our findings suggest that edutainment is an engaging way to reach viewers on sensitive themes, however more evidence is needed on how to effectively deliver edutainment content for sustained behavior change at scale.

Cost and affordability of recommended diets in Rwanda using [near] real-time market data

Countries are increasingly benchmarking food assistance and labour laws on the cost of nationally recommended diets. Benchmarking is made against national annual estimates, which fail to account for sub-national and intra-annual variation in cost, blunting the impact of policies. Using monthly market price data collected by the Government of Rwanda (April 2019-March 2024), we estimate the cost of the country’s proposed food-based dietary guidelines, using a standardised diet costing methodology. We found rural areas experienced greater inflation in diet cost over the study period than urban areas (41% vs 28%), yet the recommended diet was 12.7% higher in urban locations. Diet costs were approximately 6% lower in districts with international border crossings to Tanzania, but 7% more in those with borders with the Democratic Republic of Congo. Fruits and vegetables (110% and 71%) and starchy staples (86% and 83%) contributed most to cost increases in rural and urban locations respectively. Seasonal diet cost fluctuations were also evident with a seasonal amplitude of 5.6% and 6.9% in rural and urban locations, synchronised to Rwanda’s agricultural calendar. 70% of employed Rwandans would find the recommended diet unaffordable, if spending 52% of wages on food. Diet costs varied 4.2-fold across all districts throughout the study period, meaning that uniform national policies to address costs and affordability would be systematically inadequate in high-cost settings and wasteful in low-cost ones. That such spatial–temporal variation exists in a small, relatively market integrated country like Rwanda suggests variation would be at least equally consequential in other low and lower-middle-income countries. High-frequency and sub-national monitoring of prices, diet costs, and affordability provides essential intelligence for policymakers to enable spatially and seasonally targeted interventions, improving both the adequacy and efficiency of food policy.

Digital literacy training to promote diffusion of digital agricultural tools to smallholder farmers: Evidence from a randomized intervention in Egypt

Despite growing enthusiasm about the potential of digital innovations to transform agrifood systems, adoption among smallholder farmers in Africa remains low and heterogeneous. While the proliferation of digital tools targeting smallholder farmers is encouraging, the vast majority remain at pilot stages, facing barriers such as limited awareness among farmer, digital illiteracy, usability challenges, and low trust among farmers. This paper evaluates alternative digital literacy interventions designed to address these demand-side barriers and enhance smallholder farmers’ knowledge, utilization, trust, and uptake of two Egyptian mobile apps offering marketing, advisory, and input delivery services. Following a Training of Trainers (TOT) model, we designed and implemented a randomized controlled trial to test three variants of digital literacy training: standard classroom-based digital literacy training (T1), digital training complemented (preceded) by a video-based play (T2), digital training complemented (preceded) by a live community play (T3), and a control group (C). We find that the different variants of digital training led to statistically significant increases in uptake and utilization of digital tools. Specifically, the standard digital training alone increased uptake by 20 percentage points and utilization by 18 percentage points. The interventions also improved farmers’ trust in digital tools by 8–13 percentage points. Surprisingly, for some outcomes, the digital literacy training alone outperformed the combined approaches that incorporated edutainment nudges. We explore possible explanations, including group size effects and social influence dynamics during the plays. We also document heterogeneity in the impact of these interventions across farmers’ gender and age. Our findings offer insights into designing cost-effective, scalable interventions that build digital capabilities and trust among smallholder farmers, while cautioning against assuming edutainment always strengthens adoption outcomes.

Intensification without empowerment? Gendered time burdens in India's livestock sector

This paper provides a nationally representative assessment of changes in women’s work in livestock rearing in rural India using unit-level data from the Time Use Surveys (TUS) 2019 and 2024. By situating the analysis within debates on the feminization of agriculture, the study examines shifts in participation and time allocation in livestock rearing among rural working-age individuals (15–59 years). While women’s participation in economic work increased modestly between 2019 and 2024, this expansion continues to coexist with a persistently high burden of unpaid domestic and caregiving services. Within agriculture, livestock emerges as a relatively more dynamic and gendered domain of work.

Using the 2016 International Classification of Activities for Time-Use Statistics (ICATUS), livestock activities are disaggregated into own use and market-oriented livestock activities. Descriptive evidence shows that women’s participation in livestock activities increased from 11 percent in 2019 to 15 percent in 2024, with a particularly notable rise in market-oriented livestock activities across several states and agroecological zones. Although crop husbandry continues to dominate agricultural employment, both incidence and intensity of participation of women in livestock rearing has visibly increased.

Regression results indicate a positive and significant year effect for total livestock and livestock activities, but not for livestock own-use activities, suggesting that the observed increase is primarily associated with market-oriented engagement rather than subsistence expansion. Education exhibits a strong negative association with livestock time use, especially for women, indicating that livestock remains a fallback activity under constrained employment options. Gelbach decomposition further shows that changes in age composition and educational attainment account for a substantial share of the explained variation, while monthly per capita consumption expenditure has a stronger and more consistently significant association with women’s livestock time use than men’s. Overall, the findings point to incremental change within a persistently gendered structure of rural time allocation.

Varietal adoption, turnover, and concentration for major crops in Ethiopia: Evidence from household surveys and field sample genotyping

Although continuous genetic improvement of crops cultivated by smallholder farmers is a well-known route to increasing agricultural productivity, our understanding of varietal adoption, turnover, and concentration in farmers’ fields is limited. Often, the greatest challenge to our understanding lies in the measurement approach (farmer self-reports versus DNA fingerprinting), as well as in the analysis and interpretation of the available data. To address this issue, we explore variety-level data on four main crops (wheat, maize, teff, and common bean) in Ethiopia. We estimate the area-weighted average varietal age (AWAVA) of each crop using data from a nationally representative sample survey of farm households and a unique genotyping dataset based on seed samples collected from the fields of sampled farm households. We also calculate indices to explore the concentration of varieties in farmers’ fields, which serves to substantiate the varietal age analysis. Overall, results show considerable variation in average varietal age across crops, ranging from 12.5 years for wheat to 28.2 years for common bean. Analysis of area shares of individual varieties for each crop indicates that slower varietal turnover (i.e., higher varietal age) is driven by the continued dominance of older varieties, despite the presence of newer varieties in the market. Slow varietal turnover in the presence of new varieties suggests the need for greater investment in the systems and markets through which seed is distributed to farmers. This includes stronger coordination of research and extension activities, improvement of variety-specific popularization and marketing efforts, and continued experimentation in seed sector development in Ethiopia.

Antimicrobial and other aquamedicine use for disease treatment in pond-based commercial tilapia farms in Bangladesh

This study addresses the limited information on use of antimicrobials and other chemical use in commercial tilapia farms in Bangladesh. A retrospective cross-sectional survey was conducted in November 2022 in the Mymensingh district, a major tilapia production hub. Nearly half of the farms (46.6%) experienced fish mortality during the last production cycle, and 75.0% of farmers did not seek professional assistance during disease outbreaks. Among those who did, 68.0% relied on chemical or drug suppliers for guidance rather than veterinary experts. Biosecurity practices were inadequate, with 98.3% not implementing four basic monitored measures: disinfection of vehicles, footwear, hands, and equipment. Awareness of antimicrobial use (AMU) risks among respondents was low, with 56.0% unaware of its negative impacts and 88.8% unfamiliar with antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Antibiotic use was low, with only 15.5% of farms reporting antibiotic treatments, primarily oxytetracycline hydrochloride (23.8%), enrofloxacin (19.0%), and erythromycin–sulphadiazine–trimethoprim (19.0%). However, other chemicals with antimicrobial properties, such as disinfectants, were more commonly applied, reported by 39.7% of farms for disease management. The use of both antimicrobial and non-antimicrobial medicine varied significantly by location, being significantly less likely observed in Tarakanda (p < 0.05) and Fulbaria (p < 0.01), suggesting location-specific differences in disease management. The presence of clinical signs was significantly associated with increased use of both antimicrobials, non-antimicrobial medicine and use of overall aquamedicine (p < 0.001), while longer cultivation durations showed a weak association with reduced AMU. Imprudent use of antimicrobials and other chemicals may pose One Health risks, including disruption of pond microbial ecosystems, AMR development, chemical residues, and occupational hazards. In-depth qualitative studies are needed to further understand and optimize antimicrobial and other chemical use practices and determine how tilapia farmers may benefit from improved biosecurity, training, and veterinary access.

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, April 2026

Average retail prices of maize declined by most measures, with lowest prices registered in the Southern Region.

Driven by increased domestic supply of newly harvested maize and cheap imports, maize retailed mostly below the government-mandated minimum farmgate price.

Farming in crisis: Livelihood challenges and resilience in conflict-affected Sudan: Insights from the Sudan 2024 Smallholder Farmers Survey

Sudan’s agricultural sector in 2026 is facing unprecedented challenges due to the ongoing conflict, economic instability, and climate-related shocks. These overlapping crises have severely disrupted farming activities, market systems, and rural livelihoods across the country. The situation is particularly critical for smallholder farmers, who form the backbone of Sudan’s food production and rural economy.

This report assesses the state of agriculture in conflict-affected Sudan, with a focus on input use, crop production, market access, and farming household-level challenges. It draws data from the Sudan 2024 Smallholder Farmers Survey, conducted across 13 of Sudan’s 18 states. The survey covered both the 2023/24 winter cropping season and preparations for the 2024 summer season.

The findings reveal that Sudan’s agriculture sector has been severely disrupted by the ongoing conflict. Migration and displacement due to the conflict are reshaping the structure of farming households, while asset losses, reduced cultivated land, and declining livestock holdings undermine their resilience. Household incomes have contracted sharply. Engagement in agricultural activities has dropped, while reliance of farming households on non-agricultural businesses, casual labor, and humanitarian assistance has increased. Food insecurity has reached alarming levels—fewer than one in four households are food secure, while over half are severely food insecure. Food-insecure households are most prevalent in conflict-affected states, such as South Kordofan, North Kordofan, and Blue Nile.

However, improvements were seen in access to input and output markets and the adoption of agricultural inputs in the 2023/24 winter season compared to the 2023 summer season. Farmers reported better availability of improved seed and fertilizer and more reliable input markets and crop-selling channels. However, these gains are overshadowed by growing uncertainty—a large portion of farmers indicated that they did not plan to cultivate crops during the 2024 summer season. Farmer’s access to finance and external assistance remained highly constrained. Farming households that used credit primarily relied on informal credit sources. More than three-quarters reported receiving no external assistance in 2024. Where support is available, its distribution remains uneven, with conflict-affected areas facing severe delivery challenges.

Farmers report widespread exposure to both idiosyncratic and covariate shocks such as illness, flooding, theft, and violence—all of which compound their vulnerability. The coping strategies they use include selling household goods, reducing agricultural investment, or liquidating assets. Such choices provide short-term relief but jeopardize their long-term recovery. Perceptions of insecurity remain widespread, particularly in states experiencing active conflict.

Overall, the findings paint a picture of a farming sector under extreme strain in Sudan. Without urgent, state-specific, and conflict-sensitive interventions, rural livelihoods will continue to deteriorate, further threatening national food security. The report concludes with recommendations to strengthen humanitarian support, revitalize agricultural input and finance systems, protect the assets of farming households, restore markets, and invest in building the resilience of farming households to both conflict and climate risks. Tailored interventions are needed to address state-level disparities, including food and security support in the Kordofan region, water and health services in Red Sea and Kassala states, and agricultural inputs in Aj Jazirah and River Nile. Long-term strategies must also invest in climate-smart agriculture, strengthen social protection systems, and ensure conflict-sensitive approaches that protect farmers and rebuild trust in rural communities.

The rise of ganyu in Malawi

A quiet but important transformation is taking place in Malawi’s rural labor markets. Increasingly, rural Malawians are working fewer hours on their own farms and spending more time in ganyu – an informal labor arrangement based on day- or piece‑work, typically requiring very low levels of skill and offering low and uncertain pay. While ganyu has long existed in Malawi, its scale and role in rural livelihoods have changed markedly. It is no longer merely a short‑term coping strategy but has become a central source of employment for a growing share of the rural population.

This shift is especially pronounced among men, young people, and individuals with little land and limited formal education. At the same time, those who rely more heavily on ganyu are finding it increasingly difficult to secure adequate and stable access to food. The rapid expansion of ganyu has important implications for the kind of policies that will advance inclusive development in Malawi.

Presentations for Success Pathways for Scaling Biofortified Crops

C’est la Vie! How a popular West African edutainment series changed minds, but not behaviours

A West African TV series in Senegal led to short- and medium-term gains in knowledge and attitudes around violence against women and sexual and reproductive health, though impacts on behaviours were limited, and a podcast version extending content during COVID-19 was ineffective.

Gender, youth, and growth: Unpacking the productivity–transformation nexus in Rwanda

The relationship between labor productivity and economic transformation, and their combined impact on labor market dynamics, remains insufficiently understood and highly country specific. This study applies an economywide analytical framework, using Rwanda as a case study, to examine how youth and women’s productivity influence economic growth and structural transformation, and how this transformation process, in turn, affects these groups.

The results indicate that labor productivity gains—whether economywide or concentrated among youth—shift growth toward the industrial and service sectors, while growth in the agricultural sector is minimal. Increases in productivity of women’ labor generate more balanced growth across sectors and substantially enhance women’s industrial participation. Productivity gains of youth labor induce stronger structural shifts, as young workers move from agriculture to expanding industrial and service sectors, though this transition partially displaces adult workers.

In general, labor income in these simulations rises broadly in line with GDP, with youth and women benefiting most under targeted scenarios. Sector-specific growth strategies yield distinct distributional effects, however: industry-led growth benefits women and adults, while service-led growth favors the versatile youth. Overall, productivity-driven structural transformation in Rwanda fosters welfare gains, although potential trade-offs between inclusiveness across gender and age groups and aggregate economic performance warrant further investigation. In conclusion, policy design in Rwanda should ensure that gains in aggregate economic growth are balanced with inclusive outcomes for women, youth, and adults.

The impact of a nutrition-sensitive graduation model on child nutrition: Experimental evidence from Ethiopia

This brief reports on a three-arm cluster randomized controlled trial of 3,015 households evaluating the effectiveness of SPIR II, a nutrition-sensitive graduation model implemented in Ethiopia. The full treatment package—combining nutrition-focused behavior change communication (BCC), village economics and savings associations, monthly maternal cash transfers of US$20, and a one-time livelihood grant of US$300—generates large, sustained improvements in child diet quality, household consumption, livestock holdings, and formal savings. A substantial reduction in childhood stunting (7 percentage points) is observed in the same sub-arm; BCC alone improves caregiver nutrition knowledge but does not lead to improved child feeding or growth. The benefit-cost ratio is nearly two, suggesting the program more than pays for itself.

Myth: Are subsidies the solution for “costly” small-scale irrigation technologies?

A common claim we hear in discussions about small-scale irrigation is that the technologies are simply too expensive, and that subsidies are therefore the only way to make them viable for smallholders. It’s a familiar argument--and on the surface, it sounds perfectly reasonable. If you search online, you’ll quickly find headlines reinforcing this idea. In India, farmers are described as unable to switch to solar-powered irrigation because the upfront costs are too steep; and in Kenya, affordability is raised as the key challenge to adoption. But once we look at actual field evidence, we find that reducing costs is far from the main—or only—solution for supporting smallholders in accessing irrigation technologies, and that subsidies are a blunt instrument for reducing farmers’ costs.

Polycrises across the food-energy-waterenvironment nexus - Entry points for action from the Agrifood Innovation and Resilience Unit at IFPRI

IFPRI’s research on true cost accounting: Unlocking the true value of food for sustainable agrifood systems

Sustainable agrifood systems must ensure food security and nutrition while balancing economic, social, and environmental objectives. Yet food costs more than the consumer price, due to hidden costs to human health, the environment, and social and economic equality. Estimates suggest that these unaccounted‑for costs exceed US$11 trillion annually, representing nearly 10% of global GDP. Redesigning agrifood systems requires a clear understanding of external costs to inform policies that balance health, economic, social, and environmental goals.

True Cost Accounting (TCA) methods measure and economically value the environmental, health, and social impacts of agrifood systems. By making these externalities visible, TCA supports more informed decision-making for governments, businesses, farmers, financial institutions, donors, and consumers. Without levers like TCA to align agrifood systems with climate, health, and equity agendas, policymakers enact policies drawn from incomplete or overly generalized analyses.

Measuring artisanal fisheries using remote sensing: A deep-learning model piloted in Hadramawt

An innovative remote sensing study piloted in two sites (Mukalla and Qusayir) in Hadramawt Governorate, Yemen, reveals the following key findings:

Deep learning using very high resolution satellite imagery can accurately detect small artisanal fishing boats.
The YOLO11 Oriented Bounding Boxes model performs best, with an overall accuracy of 96.9 percent, and enables measuring boat size and identifying boat types.
Mukalla’s fleet numbered around 800 operational boats in 2021–2024, most of which were houris, while sanbuqs accounted for 6.9 percent. Qusayir’s fleet numbered 450 boats, all of which were houris.
The composition of the combined Mukalla and Qusayir fleets by boat type and length class is similar to the composition of Hadramawt’s entire fleet, as shown by a recent landing site survey.
Approximated fish-catch capacities of the Mukalla and Qusayir fleets indicate that current boat sizes are not a notable constraint to increasing the productivity of these artisanal fisheries.
The proposed remote sensing approach is an important first step toward development of a cost-effective tool for monitoring and analyzing artisanal fishing activities in Southern Yemen and beyond.

Scaling biofortified wheat production for agrifood and nutritional security in eastern India: Evidence from five years of multi-location field evaluations in Bihar

Climate stressors and rural incomes: Multi-country evidence on wealth, gender, and age disparities

Hidden one-stop shops in transforming agrifood value chains: Agro-input retailers in Myanmar

Artificial intelligence-assisted dietary assessment in adolescent girls in Sri Lanka: Validity against weighed food records and comparison with 24-hour recalls

Background
Reliable dietary data for adolescents in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are limited due to high costs and estimation errors in traditional dietary assessment methods. Although technology-assisted dietary assessment tools are becoming popular, few have been validated in LMICs.

Objectives
This study validated the PlantVillage Food Recognition Assistance and Nudging Insights (FRANI), an artificial intelligence-assisted mobile application for dietary assessment, against weighed food records (WFR) and multipass 24-h recalls (24HR) among adolescent girls aged 14‒18 y (n = 60) in urban/semi-urban communities in Sri Lanka.

Methods
Dietary intake was assessed over 2 non-consecutive days using 3 methods: FRANI, WFR, and 24HR. The equivalence of nutrient intake was evaluated using mixed-effect models accounting for repeated measures by comparing intake ratios (FRANI/WFR and 24HR/WFR) with 10%, 15%, and 20% equivalence bounds. The concordance correlation coefficient was utilized to assess the agreement between methods.

Results
FRANI demonstrated equivalence with WFR at the 10% bound for energy and vitamin A; 15% for protein, fiber, iron, and zinc; and 20% for fat, niacin, and folate intakes. Comparisons between 24HR and WFR found that no nutrients fell within the 10% bound. Energy, protein, fat, iron, niacin, and vitamin A intakes were equivalent at 15% bound, whereas fiber, calcium, folate, and vitamin C intakes were equivalent at 20% bound. Concordance correlation coefficient ranged from 0.49 to 0.89 for FRANI compared to WFR, and 0.44 to 0.84 for 24HR compared with WFR. Omission errors were 2% for FRANI and 12% for 24HR, and intrusion errors were 7% and 9%, respectively.

Conclusions
PlantVillage FRANI application accurately estimated nutrient intakes of adolescent girls in Sri Lanka compared to the WFR. Its performance was at least comparable to the traditional 24HR method, supporting its potential as a scalable alternative for dietary assessment in similar LMIC populations.

Relevance of more stringent discharge standards for acute malnutrition treatment: A pooled analysis of post-treatment relapse in 21 studies

Child hemoglobin trajectories across the first 10 years of life and association with child cognition and academic achievement at 10-11 years

Background
Anemia is a global health concern, though the importance of changes in hemoglobin (Hb) and cognitive outcomes in childhood remains unclear.
Objective
We examined the association between child Hb trajectories and anemia with cognitive development and academic achievement at 10-11y.
Methods
We used prospective data from Vietnamese children (n=831) born to women who participated in a micronutrient supplementation trial (PRECONCEPT). Hb was measured at 3mo, 6mo, 1y, 2y and 10-11y. Multivariable linear regression models assessed the association between Hb trajectories and anemia with cognitive development (full-scale intelligence quotient- FSIQ), and academic achievement (mathematics and reading) at 10-11y, adjusting for maternal (intervention, education, age, mental health), child (age, sex), and household (home environment, socioeconomic status) characteristics.
Results
Three child Hb trajectories were identified (low-6.4%, middle-52.2% and high-41.4%). Compared to the middle and high trajectory groups, children in the low trajectory had the lowest Hb levels at 3 months (Hb: 9.7g/dL) and through age 10-11y (11.2g/dl). Children in the low-Hb trajectory had lower FSIQ (89.8 vs 93.2), math (12.1 vs 13.5) and reading (17.8 vs 19.0) scores compared to the high-Hb trajectory. These differences were attenuated in adjusted models. Children in the low and middle Hb trajectories had non-significantly lower FSIQ (-0.93; 95% CI: [-4.57, 2.71] and (-1.13 [-2.92, 0.66]), reading scores (-0.01 [-1.36,1.34]) and -0.46 [-1.13,0.21]) and math scores (-0.57 [-1.15,0.01] and -0.65 [-1.82, 0.51]). Anemia status at 10-11y was negatively associated with FSIQ (-3.82 [-6.68, -0.76]) and math scores (-1.04 [-2.03, -0.05]) in adjusted models.
Conclusion
Child Hb trajectories across the first 10 years of life were largely established early in life and had weak associations with cognition and academic achievement at 10-11y. Anemia among 10-year-old children was associated with lower IQ and math scores, which underscores the importance of continued investment in nutrition programs among school-age children.

Evaluating large-scale government investments in fertilizer adoption: The Ethiopian experience

We evaluate the impact of a large Government of Ethiopia intervention to raise fertilizer supply by establishing five fertilizer blending facilities supplying fertilizers tailored to local soil nutrient profiles. We rely on the phased geographic rollout of blending facility establishment to identify the causal effect on fertilizer use, application rates, crop yields, gross crop revenue, and household consumption. Combining effects of multiple treatment periods, each estimated using a doubly robust difference-in-difference model, we find that the blending facilities increased the probability that farmers adopt the new blended fertilizers by 22 percentage points and increased application rates by 17 kg/ha (baseline adoption was zero). The facilities mostly induced farmers who previously used DAP to switch to NPS, and we find large decreases in DAP adoption (by 22 percentage points, 47% of the control group base mean) and application rates (16 kg/ha, 52% of the control group base mean) yet no impact on overall fertilizer adoption or application rates. Though the new blended fertilizers were expected to perform better, there is no evidence they improved crop yields, crop gross revenue, or household consumption. The effect of the intervention was more pronounced (with larger increases in NPS use and larger decreases in DAP use) for farms located near demonstration plots, which the Government used to train farmers about the agronomic response to the new fertilizers. We confirm results using three large-scale longitudinal datasets and show that they are robust to choices of specification, treatment definition, and inference assumptions.

JEL classification: O12, O13, Q16, Q18

Preconception micronutrient supplementation positively affects offspring perceptual reasoning at 10-11 years of age: Follow-up of a randomized controlled trial in Vietnam

The future in mind: Aspirations and long-term outcomes in rural Ethiopia

Phenology-aligned multi-task temporal fusion framework for satellite-based triple-seasonal rice yield estimation in Southeast Asia

Accurate seasonal rice yield estimation across Southeast Asia’s intensive cropping systems remains challenging due to complex phenological patterns and heterogeneous environmental conditions. This study develops a phenology-aligned multi-task temporal fusion (MTTF) framework for satellite-based seasonal rice yield estimation in Vietnam’s triple-cropping systems from 2001 to 2020. The multi-task learning treats each cropping season (winter–spring, summer–autumn, monsoon) as related but distinct tasks, enabling knowledge sharing while preserving season-specific characteristics. The framework integrates multi-source time-series data, including climate variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation), satellite-based vegetation indices (e.g., NDVI, EVI, NIRv, GCVI, LSWI), productivity indicators (e.g., SIF, GPP), and static soil properties (e.g., clay content, organic carbon, bulk density) through parallel Transformer encoders and late fusion strategies. To address temporal misalignment across heterogeneous cropping calendars, we developed an automated phenology-based crop season detection method that synchronizes time-series inputs to key growth stages rather than calendar dates. MTTF achieved high performance (R2 = 0.75, RMSE = 0.63 Mg·ha−1, and rRMSE = 12.0%), outperforming baseline models including Transformer, AtBiLSTM, ANN, XGBoost, and Random Forest. The multi-task learning approach outperformed both global models (single predictor for all seasons) and local models (separate predictors for each season), demonstrating particular benefits for data-scarce seasons like monsoon rice. Phenology alignment enhanced temporal consistency across all models. Multi-modal data fusion significantly improved performance, with satellite-based vegetation measurements contributing more significantly than climate variables according to SHAP analysis. The proposed framework provides a robust approach for operational rice yield monitoring across intensive cropping systems, with implications for assessing food security and agricultural policy in monsoon regions.

Multi-stakeholder platforms for enabling agroecological transitions: Configurations and lessons from seven agroecological living landscapes

Agroecological transition (AET) of agrifood systems is a multidimensional process involving diverse stakeholders. Participatory innovation and co-creation of knowledge are also at the heart of agroecology. Deliberately designed Multi-stakeholder platforms (MSPs) are collaborative spaces conducive to driving this type of collaboration and change. However, how these processes are operationalized is poorly documented. This study contributes to filling this gap by highlighting how MSPs can be important vehicles for enabling AETs. As part of the CGIAR Initiative on Agroecology, Agroecological Living Landscapes (ALLs) were set up as MSPs specifically focusing on co-creation of agroecological innovations. By examining different ALL configurations in seven countries, we analyze MSP attributes that can enable and shape AETs at different stages or “levels” of the transition pathway. We find that MSPs can advance different levels of the transition pathway simultaneously by working on multiple innovations involving various stakeholder coalitions. MSPs navigate complex environments, with diverse stakeholders playing multiple policy and non-policy roles to support AETs. The results also illustrate the intersection between MSP configuration and AET objectives, such as policy change, agroecology market support, and scaling adoption. Finally, we discuss the non-linear nature of AET pathways and political economy considerations for stakeholder engagement in MSPs.

Leveraging social protection to strengthen women’s and girls’ climate-resilience in agrifood systems

Women and girls (WGs) have important roles in making agrifood systems more climate resilient. However, systemic inequalities in access to resources, technologies, information, services, and networks, alongside limited agency and restrictive gender norms, reduce their capacity to adapt to and mitigate climate change. WGs’ constraints on adaptation bear implications on the wellbeing of WGs, their households, and the sustainability of agrifood systems. With growing recognition that social protection helps promote WGs’ resilience in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) at large scale, stakeholders are interested in developing social protection programs that are responsive to both climate change and gender inequality. However, little is known about effective approaches. We develop a conceptual framework on how social assistance – the most prevalent type of social protection programming in many LMICs – affects WGs’ coping, adaptive, and mitigative responses to climate hazards. We reflect on the emerging evidence and propose recommendations on program design features that may more effectively promote WGs’ climate resilience in agrifood systems. We additionally highlight important directions for future research to guide practice.

Strengthening women’s resilience and participation in climate governance in the agrifood sector through public policies: A strategic review of literature

Women are uniquely vulnerable to climate change but play a critical role in enhancing the climate resilience of the agrifood sector. Based on a rapid review of academic and grey literature, this paper synthesizes the state of knowledge on the level of integration of gender aspects in climate change policies and women’s involvement in policy processes in the Global South. It examines women’s participation in climate change governance, strategies for enhancing this participation, and policy approaches to strengthen women’s resilience while addressing gender inequalities. Findings show that public policies often employ quotas, incentives, and capacity building initiatives to boost women’s participation in governance. However, meaningful engagement in higher-level decision-making remains limited, with quotas sometimes resulting in superficial involvement. Facilitating women’s access to agrifood resources, human capital, and economic opportunities, as well as addressing harmful gender norms, are identified as effective strategies to build resilience. Despite these promising approaches, gaps remain in the implementation and evaluation of policies aimed at enhancing women’s resilience and participation. The paper concludes by recommending outcome-oriented research and robust evaluations of public policy effectiveness in improving women’s climate resilience and governance roles.

Repairing the mosaic: The political economy of landscape-level agroecological transitions in India

An evolving landscape for nexus governance in transboundary basins: Recognizing and harnessing the growing role of multistakeholder platforms

Synergizing climate change adaptation and mitigation in agriculture through crop switching: A sustainable pathway to ensure China's food security by the 2050s

Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) has become a vital approach to adapting to and mitigating climate change while safeguarding food security. Future climate change is projected to shift suitable cropping areas northward in China. Guided by the CSA framework, this study establishes a refined spatial linear optimization model for multi-cropping at national and provincial scales to explore the potential of crop switching in synergizing climate change adaptation and mitigation under the RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 scenarios in the 2050s. Results indicate that under national planning compared to the future baseline scenario without spatial crop reallocation, an adaptation optimization strategy increases crop production by 24.1% to 24.6% and achieves staple crop self-sufficiency (wheat, maize, rice, and soybean) by the 2050s under RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, but at the cost of a 19.2% to 23.3% increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Alternatively, the mitigation optimization strategy can reduce direct cropland GHG emissions(CH4 and N2O) by 30.8%(86.0% from CH4)to 52.0% (79.9% from CH4) while maintaining crop production. While trade-offs exist, specific weighting regions of the Pareto front reveal co-benefits, including crop production (+4.0% to +21.4%), economic profits (+13% to +28.3%), reduced GHG emissions (-52% to -16.2%), and irrigation water savings (-12.8% to -0.7%). Acknowledging implementation constraints alongside modeling uncertainties, these optimal outcomes indicate that, carefully designed crop-switching strategies such as expanding soybean cultivation in North China and replacing rice with wheat, maize, and soybean in the Yangtze River Plain could both enhance climate adaptation and mitigation and help meet China’s food demand in the 2050s without cropland expansion.

Optimizing school meals in Ghana: Integrating new food and nutrient standards with aspects of affordability, cultural acceptability and environmental sustainability

Objectives:
To optimize school food baskets in Ghana to meet newly proposed food and nutrition targets while considering cultural acceptability and cost.

Design:
Modeling study. Data on existing school meal menus was collected from various regions to provide baseline inputs. Linear programming (LP) was used to model school meal baskets that satisfied minimum nutrient and food targets for school meals while meeting cost and acceptability constraints. Five LP models were tested, each varying in budget constraints and acceptability/food-based parameters.

Results:
Baseline school food baskets were significantly deficient in energy, protein, iron, zinc, vitamin A, folate, vitamin B12 and vitamin C compared to food and nutrient standards for school meals in Ghana. Optimization resulted in school food baskets that met cost, nutrient and food-based/acceptability targets but with substantial deviations from baseline. Achieving nutritional adequacy within cost limits increased reliance on animal-source foods and led to higher environmental impacts, indicating trade-offs between nutrition, affordability, and environmental sustainability.

Conclusion:
The study underscores LP’s potential for enhancing school meals in Ghana but highlights the need for increased financial investment for reaching dietary goals. Addressing local realities and cultural preferences is essential for implementing effective, sustainable school meal strategies and improving child health.

Haunted by tariffs and trade wars: A positive trade policy for US agriculture

US farmers have been among the biggest beneficiaries of US free trade agreements and the postwar creation of a rules-based global trading system. Under recent administrations, however, farmers have been disadvantaged by the US shift away from forging such trade pacts. Agriculture has also been one of the sectors most affected by the volatility and uncertainty of the first and second Trump administrations’ high tariffs and trade wars. Both Trump administrations have compensated farmers for lost export revenue, but such a trade policy is not a sustainable long-term solution and cannot replace a more positive policy that improves trade rules and expands farmers’ market access abroad.

Women’s Empowerment Metric for National Statistical Systems (WEMNS): Development and psychometric assessment of a face-to-face survey module

Data to monitor progress towards gender-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) remain limited. A comprehensive, concise set of metrics is needed for routine national data collection to monitor progress toward these goals. Our team developed and tested the Women’s Empowerment Metric for National Statistical Systems (WEMNS) survey module for use by national statistical offices and survey organizations in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) to measure women’s and men’s empowerment. This paper summarizes the process of developing the WEMNS module and presents detailed results of a psychometric assessment of face-to-face surveys in Bangladesh, Malawi, and Nepal. Exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) in the pooled sample confirmed that most of the 13 item sets had adequately identified factor structures aligned with specific empowerment constructs and gender-related SDGs. In multi-group CFA assessing measurement equivalence of item sets across gender and countries, configural invariance was observed for 9 of 13 item sets across genders and across country settings. At least partial scalar invariance was observed for one item set across genders and no item sets across country settings. Spearman pairwise correlations among WEMNS factor scores derived from final CFA models showed weak associations, suggesting item sets were weakly related and distinct. Overall, Spearman pairwise correlations of 13 WEMNS-derived factor scores with external measures for basic needs, resources, agency, and subjective well-being were weak, but five moderately high correlations were conceptually aligned. In sum, the WEMNS measures require refinement and further psychometric assessment to confirm their use to make valid comparisons of empowerment across country settings and gender.

The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model documentation for version 4

The International Food Policy Research Institute’s IMPACT model is a robust tool for analyzing global and regional challenges in food, agriculture, and natural resources. Continuously updated and refined since its initial development in the early 1990s, IMPACT version 4 represents the latest iteration of the model, offering an enhanced treatment of complex issues such as climate change, food security, and economic development. IMPACT 4 modeling system integrates climate, crop simulation, and water models into a comprehensive system, providing decision-makers with a flexible platform to assess the potential impacts of various scenarios on biophysical systems, socioeconomic trends, technologies, and policies.

National and sub-national delivery of balanced energy and protein (BEP) supplements to pregnant and lactating women in LMICs: Lessons from multi-country implementation case studies

The World Health Organization recommends the use of balanced energy protein (BEP) supplements during pregnancy in settings with a ≥ 20% prevalence of underweight women of reproductive age to reduce the risk of adverse health outcomes. Several countries are implementing BEP supplementation in varied formats. However, the implementation and monitoring of outcomes remain poor across countries. This qualitative study explores the experiences, opportunities, and challenges related to implementing national and sub-national BEP supplementation programs in nine countries (12 countries originally invited) to inform best practices. Methods: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 15 personnel involved in its implementation in Haiti, India, Malawi, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Rwanda, Senegal, and Sri Lanka between October 2024 and March 2025. The interviewees in each country were predominantly implementation experts but also government officials involved in the provision of BEP supplementation. The transcripts were analyzed thematically, focusing on acceptability, adoption, appropriateness, cost, feasibility, and sustainability of outcomes. Results: In non-humanitarian settings (five countries), BEP supplementation was commonly integrated into the governmental health system or social protection programs. However, humanitarian contexts (four countries) often relied on partner-led (e.g., UN organizations) implementation. Clear operational protocols, including behavioral change communication strategies, facilitated the implementation. Community-based organization partnerships strengthened adherence; however, implementation costs, stock shortages, and geographic inequities in coverage varied and were limiting factors in scale-up, primarily in humanitarian contexts. Conclusion: In sum, two distinct implementation pathways emerged: government-led models characterized by policy integration, national ownership, and more stable systems, and humanitarian or donor-led models shaped by crisis response, external dependency, and non-committal challenges. Successful implementation of BEP supplements depends on the presence of effective policies, context-adapted design, integration into health systems, consistent funding, and effective monitoring. There is a need for implementation research to generate evidence on best practices when implementing BEP supplementation programs.

Millets are still not on our menu

Presentations How does Trade Risk Influence Agricultural Policy?

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: March 2026

Cereals and Flour
Lentils, Rice, and Pigeon Peas
Vegetables
Meat and Animal Products
Oilseeds, Cooking Oil, Sugar, and Fava Beans
Seeds
Fertilizers
Diesel and Petrol
Exchange Rates
Labor wages
Market Actors’ Perceptions

Papua New Guinea food price bulletin: April 2026

This bulletin reports on food price trends from major markets in Papua New Guinea (PNG), for the first quarter (Q1) of 2026 using the data collected by Fresh Produce Development Authority (FPDA). During the first quarter, at least one round of data per month was collected from all markets, except for Port Moresby in February (no data). In March, Banz and Port Moresby had two rounds each, while all other markets had one round.

This report analyzes month-over-month changes in Q1 2026 (January to March) and compares prices with the previous quarter (Q4 2025: October to December) and the same period in 2025 (Q1 2025). Prices are reported in real PGK per kilogram (i.e., adjusted for inflation using the FAO Consumer Food Price Index (PCI) and price gaps from July 2025 to March 2026 filled using a growth rate calculated from quarterly PCI data provided by the PNG National Statistical Office (June and September 2025)). This bulletin focuses on selected staples (sweet potato, taro, cassava, cooking banana and rice), vegetables (aibika, English cabbage, capsicum, carrot, and choko-tips) and fruits (lemon, orange, pawpaw and pineapple).

Horticulture sector in India: Trends, performance, and impact

Exploring good gaps for right-sizing food assistance: Methods, data challenges, and lessons learned

Accurate measurement of the depth of acute food insecurity remains a major gap in current global monitoring systems. While the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) identifies the scale and geographic distribution of populations in crisis, it does not quantify the magnitude of food intake shortfalls faced by affected populations. This paper outlines an exploratory data exercise that tests three proxy approaches to estimating food gaps using available IPC and DIEM data. First, we derive back-of-envelope caloric deficit estimates by IPC phase using thresholds from the Household Economy Approach. Second, we assess whether widely used dietary diversity, experiential food insecurity, and coping capacity indicators can serve as proxies for calorie deficits by analyzing their cross-indicator correlations. Third, using microdata from FAO's DIEM surveys matched to IPC area phases, we estimate indicator-specific shortfalls using a Foster-Greer-Thorbecke gap framework and translate these into food assistance estimates. The results show that proxy indicators cannot be used interchangeably to estimate caloric shortfalls, reflecting weak cross-indicator correlations consistent with the existing literature. Within-phase heterogeneity is wide and data limitations are substantial. The paper documents these approaches and their limitations as an intermediate step. The paper provides several recommendations for improving data collection that would allow for more reliable food gap estimates using the framework presented in this paper, which in turn could then operationalized for humanitarian agencies to ‘right size’ and better target food assistance to populations facing acute food insecurity.

Livelihood alternatives to labor migration: A choice experiment in Tajikistan

Labor migration is often driven by a need for income, and can also be motivated by a desire for higher earnings. A naïve assumption is therefore that an increase in local livelihood alternatives might reduce outmigration, something which has been found to hold true in some settings, but not in others. This study employs a discrete choice experiment (DCE) with 408 rural respondents in Tajikistan—a country heavily reliant on remittances from abroad—to assess whether specific local income-generating opportunities, such as those offered through cash-for-work programs or through the provision of additional farmland, might affect stated preferences regarding migration. The study explores trade-offs between local income generating opportunities (wage employment, access to farmland, and irrigation infrastructure) and migration restrictions, i.e., hypothetical constraints on household members migrating abroad for a given duration. We rely on stated rather than revealed preferences to examine these trade-offs. Our findings lend some support to the idea that households are willing to accept outmigration restrictions in return for improved local income-generation opportunities, either through wage employment or own-farming. Yet, findings are heterogeneous and depend on the households’ current and anticipated reliance on labor migration.

Combine harvester service providers in Myanmar: Insights from the 2025 monsoon season

This note presents results from a January–February 2026 phone survey of 325 combine harvester service provider (CHSPs), offering insights into the 2025 monsoon season.

Key Findings
Acres harvested declined by 11 percent (7 percent in the Dry Zone, 11 percent in the Delta), with 61 percent of CHSPs reporting lower demand, associated with poor rice price incentives in the Delta and movement restrictions in the Dry Zone.
Nominal service charges fell by a median of 6 percent, concentrated in the Delta where fuel costs declined, while Dry Zone charges remained flat reflecting limited fuel savings and a restricted operating environment.
Most CHSPs (91 percent) extended credit to farmers without interest, and 74 percent provided more financial assistance than the previous year, highlighting their role as an important source of informal credit.
Cash flow problems affected 26 percent of CHSPs, driven by declining revenues and rising costs that may be understated in real terms given Myanmar's persistently high inflation, with many coping by borrowing, selling assets, or drawing on other income.
Emerging fuel supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict pose a significant risk to the 2026 monsoon season, potentially limiting CHSP operations at a time when farmers may also face fertilizer shortages, threatening agricultural production.

Recommended Actions
De-risk credit for mechanization services by expanding farmers' access to affordable formal credit or introducing partial guarantee schemes.
Improve mobility and security for CHSP operations through greater transparency and reductions of checkpoints, fewer required permissions, and safer roads.
Support training and retention of machine operators to address shortages driven by outmigration and insecurity.

Under the weight of provision: Gendered mental load among smallholder farmers in Kenya

Invisible mental strain affects women and men, especially in rural areas. The effects of this strain can influence collective and economic decisions, impacting resilience in low-resource agricultural communities. Using qualitative data collected from focus group discussions with smallholder farmers in Western Kenya, we explored gendered strains of women and men, their social and psychological consequences, and the gender empathy gap. We conducted focus group discussions with 56 farmers and found that expectations of the roles of women and men in the household were clear. The “invisible burden” was present in the pressure to be hardworking and to provide financial means for the family as a man; and to care for the family and farm as a woman. The strain led to stress, worry, and deterioration of mental health, contributing to despondency, isolation, household conflict, and even mental breakdowns. Household members coped with the psychological strain in different ways. Men tended to use avoidance mechanisms, isolate themselves, or turn to alcohol consumption. Women mentioned talking to others about the strain. Both women and men also reached out to other people, took some kind of action, made plans or relied on their faith in God. Both women and men showed empathy toward one another; that is, they recognized the strain and the effects on their spouse. However, women appeared to show more empathy than men. Thus, the breadwinner strain borne by men and the family load borne by women was an important factor in rural areas, affecting household relations and decisions, which can ultimately affect household resilience. Given the negative social and psychological consequences of this invisible burden, mental health literacy trainings, gender transformative approaches, community dialogues, and gender-responsive extension services can be employed to help households to better cope with strain.

Evaluation of solar-powered cold storage and evaporative cooling system as off-grid methods for postharvest vegetable storage: Evidence from a laboratory Experiment in Nigeria

This study examined the postharvest storage potentials of a solar-powered cool storage and an off-grid, metal-in-wall evaporative coolant. Temperature drop and relative humidity (RH) increase were used to analyze the performance of cooling systems. Tomato (United Trading Company (UTC) variety), orange (Dan Benue variety) and carrot (Orange Chantenay) were obtained from the international fruits market in Dutse, Jigawa State, Nigeria. The items were sorted and stored in three different storage conditions: room temperature (RT), solar-powered cold storage, and metal-in-wall evaporative cooling systems. Mass loss, color, hardness, total soluble solids and titratable acids, carotenoids, vitamin C, and rate of nutrient degradation were among the quality indicators tested. The study shows that the solar-powered cold storage outperformed all other storage methods across the evaluated parameters; it preserved fruit firmness, significantly reduced the rate of color change, and minimized mass and nutrient losses, outperforming the metal-in-wall evaporative cooling system. For instance, tomato mass losses observed in 24 days were 42.66, 63.79, and 85.45 percent in the solar-powered cold storage, evaporative coolant, and ambient storage, respectively. Economic advantages of the above technologies, however, require careful consideration of investment costs and longer-term durability and benefits.

Presentations for A Narrow Strait, Global Consequences: Hormuz Strait and Fertilizer Markets

Vertical integration and the modernization of staple food value chains: Evidence from Myanmar’s rice sector

Increased vertical integration and coordination are defining features of transforming and modernizing agricultural value chains in low- and middle-income countries, with important implications for market efficiency and farm-level transformation. However, research documenting these processes in modernizing domestic value chains is limited, and tends to focus on foreign direct investment and high-value food products. We study the rice value chain – the most important staple in Southeast Asia – in Myanmar and use unique data from domestic rice mills and farmers to analyze millers’ expansion into other businesses and services. We show that both modern and traditional mills serve as key nodes in local rice value chains, fulfilling diverse roles beyond processing at both the farm and post-farm levels and highlighting a co-development of modern processing and vertical integration. Yet, statistical tests that control for mill and farmer characteristics, respectively, show that modern mills are more engaged in vertical integration and coordination, particularly in post-farm value chain segments, highlighting the co-development of modern processing and business expansion. Consistent with this pattern in the miller data, farmers using a modern mill are more likely to receive complementary services – especially post-farm – and to adopt modern production practices more broadly. However, this expansion is uneven, reaching large farms more frequently than small and medium farms.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: February 2026

Cereals and Flour
Lentils, Rice, and Pigeon Peas
Vegetables
Meat and Animal Products
Oilseeds, Cooking Oil, Sugar, and Fava Beans
Seeds (Improved and Local)
Fertilizers
Diesel and Petrol
Exchange Rates
Labor wages
Market Actors’ Perceptions

Myanmar monthly food price report – March 2026

Rice prices in March 2026 remained lower year-on-year (down 9 percent), although they increased slightly month-on-month, indicating a recovery following earlier declines driven by lower international prices and strong domestic supply. While easing pressure on consumers, these trends continue to raise concerns for paddy producers, who face rising input costs and fuel constraints.

Export crop prices showed relatively limited movement this month, suggesting a pause in momentum after previous gains driven by the revised foreign exchange policy and stronger international market demand.

Vegetable prices declined month-on-month, reflecting increased market supply during the peak harvest season. Prices of garlic, onion, and chili fell as new season’s produce entered the market, outweighing ongoing supply disruptions. In contrast, potato prices continued to increase due to weather-related production constraints,

Animal-sourced food prices continued to rise sharply year-on-year, led by mutton, chicken, and fish, reflecting supply constraints, disease outbreaks, and strong export demand. However, month-on-month changes were relatively modest, indicating short-term price stability.

The conflict in Iran has led to a partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than a quarter of the world’s oil exports and 20–30 percent of global fertilizer exports pass. These developments are especially concerning for Myanmar’s agrifood system, which depends heavily on fuel for transport, irrigation, mechanization, and processing. In addition, disruptions in fertilizer supply could adversely affect the upcoming monsoon season.

Five misconceptions distorting food policy in Malawi: A joint NPC-IFPRI position paper

Among countries not affected by conflict, Malawi has the lowest GDP per capita, and its economy has been shrinking for much of the past five years. External shocks have undoubtedly strained an already fragile economy, but policy choices have further stifled growth and amplified vulnerabilities. Many of these choices are rooted in persistent misconceptions, that distort decision-making and undermine progress. This position paper identifies and challenges those misconceptions. We focus only on beliefs that are widespread, lead to seriously distorted policy choices, and are genuinely held by well-intentioned actors committed to inclusive development in Malawi. These actors are our primary audience, as those without this underlying objective are unlikely to be swayed. Our list is selective rather than exhaustive, concentrating on misconceptions that are particularly pervasive and influential in the food systems policy space, and for which robust, evidence-based arguments exist.

Linking Malawian smallholders to larger-scale agribusiness enterprises for inclusive development: A conceptual critique of the anchor enterprise model

While smallholder farming has been and remains at the center of agricultural transformation efforts in Malawi, the limited success of smallholder-centered agricultural development strategies has led policymakers to explore alternative approaches. One emerging approach involves larger farms or agribusiness firms partnering with smallholder farming households, in what we will refer to as an anchor enterprise model. Under this model, smallholder farming households contribute land and labor to produce crops or livestock products that serve as inputs for, or are marketed jointly with, the anchor enterprise. In return, the anchor enterprise provides support such as technical assistance, inputs, transport, or storage. This partnership is intended to be commercial and mutually beneficial. While support for such partnerships is growing and the anchor enterprise model is increasingly being used in development programming in Malawi, there is still little clarity on what they involve, what they aim to achieve, and the conditions they need for success. This study seeks to address these questions and assess whether such linkages between larger farms or agrifood processors and smallholder farming households can contribute to sustainable, resilient, and inclusive wealth creation in Malawi. The findings from this study are also summarized in a policy note (Benson, Cockx, and De Weerdt, 2025).

Anchor enterprise partnerships can be valuable development models in specific contexts. In particular, they can help both larger enterprises and smallholders overcome constraints imposed by weaknesses in Malawi’s factor, input, and output markets, enabling both land and labor to be used more productively. However, the viability of the model depends heavily on the nature of the product at its center. Anchor enterprise models are generally not suitable for grain or other generic staple crops. For such products, partnerships are costly and carry high risk since farmers can easily find and sell to other buyers than their anchor enterprise partner if market prices rise above the agreed price for the partnership (side-selling). Similarly, if market prices drop below the agreed price, enterprises may buy elsewhere (side-buying). Rather, these partnerships are most likely to be economically justified for higher value, less widely grown, more specialized, more complex to produce or process, or highly perishable agricultural products. For these products, the risk of default is lower as the reduction in transaction costs provides both parties with strong incentives for maintaining a longer-term commercial relationship.

These incentives are especially important as the legal framework governing commercial partnerships in Malawi's agrifood sector remains underdeveloped. Formal contracts were found to be important but not central to successful anchor enterprise operations. Partnerships that endure are built on a strong economic rationale, clear financial incentives for all parties, and a degree of bilateral dependency.

Anchor enterprise models cannot be profitably and sustainably employed for many types of commercial agricultural production in Malawi. Consequently, only a small portion of farming households can directly participate, and the poorest and most vulnerable are generally less likely to be included. Nonetheless, where such models work well, they can deliver indirect benefits to the broader rural community, including its poorer and more vulnerable members, by stimulating local demand for labor, goods, and services. Complementary interventions aimed at strengthening the capacity of the poorest households to capture these indirect benefits may, however, be necessary for the model to contribute meaningfully to inclusive development.

A model centered around commercial farms or agro-processors requires an enabling environment for such enterprises to operate effectively. This includes macroeconomic stability, an investment climate that facilitates private investment in agribusiness, and trade and exchange rate policies that support formal exports. To be sustainable, anchor enterprise models must be grounded in a strong economic rationale for partnering. Government and development partners can, however, support such partnerships without eroding their commercial foundations by, for example, investing in new institutions for conflict prevention and resolution, providing enterprises with assistance in managing relationships with smallholder partners, organizing financial and business training for farmers to reduce information asymmetries, or supporting organizations that can act as effective third-party intermediaries.

Can cash and therapy work in conflict settings?

A randomised evaluation of a cash and psychological intervention in Ethiopia shows that the joint intervention is needed to improve both mental health and economic outcomes, but the effectiveness of the combined intervention is attenuated by active conflict.

Evaluating the impact of tariffs on US agriculture a year after liberation day

In April 2025, the Trump administration levied 10 percent tariffs on virtually all countries and higher “reciprocal” tariffs on certain countries, ushering in a new and uncertain tariff architecture that saw significant changes, exemptions, and additional actions over the following year.

The tariffs modestly reduced overall US agricultural and food imports, but with significant heterogeneity by exporting country and product category.

The tariffs had mixed effects on US agricultural exports, with exports to China and Canada falling partly because of retaliatory tariffs and consumer reactions, respectively.

After imposing the tariffs, the United States negotiated several bilateral trade deals with other countries. However, given the lack of product-specific details, China’s continued retaliatory measures, and the Supreme Court’s decision striking down the bulk of US tariffs, it is unclear whether these deals with actually improve agricultural market access for US exporters.

Beyond the grid: Women's empowerment in climate, energy and household well-being

Origins and causes of Sudan’s conflict: Domestic and international perspectives

The war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and its subsidiary paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) that began in April 2023 follows a succession of civil wars that devasted the economically marginalized, socially ostracized, and politically disenfranchised southern and western regions of Sudan, but it has now brought the conflict to the country’s geographic and economic power center. Unlike the decades-long North–South civil wars or the ongoing deadly conflict in Darfur, today’s conflict began in Khartoum and the agriculturally rich heartland of Central Sudan, bringing death and destruction to the central Aj Jazirah and Sennar states, before moving south and west to Darfur and Kordofan. The same historical, economic, political, and ethnic factors that fueled those previous conflicts are at play now, as the belligerent factions seek to control the country’s resources. This time, however, after working together to halt efforts to democratize Sudan, the SAF and RSF turned on each other, each seeking to dominate the kleptocratic state system.

Introduction [in War and resilience: The multifaceted impacts of Sudan's conflict and pathways to recovery]

Sudan is experiencing one of the most severe humanitarian and economic crises in its modern history due to the ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The war has devastated livelihoods, displaced millions, and significantly weakened the country’s agrifood system and broader economic structure. Since the conflict erupted in April 2023, it has escalated into the world’s largest displacement crisis, with nearly 12 million people—nearly one-third of Sudan’s population-forced to flee their homes, including 4.5 million refugees who have sought safety in neighboring countries, including Egypt, Chad, South Sudan, and Ethiopia.

Conflict-induced trade dynamics: A gravity framework analysis of Sudan’s agricultural exports

Long before the April 2023 eruption of armed conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Sudan’s economy was crippled by conflicts. The country’s agricultural production and productivity, internal trade, exports, and overall macroeconomic performance have all been adversely affected, and disruptions to the agrifood system, food insecurity, poverty, and malnutrition will likely remain if the conflict continues.

State failure and elite capture of Sudan’s agrifood system

Since the outbreak of Sudan’s civil war in April 2023, nearly 12 million people have been displaced, and an estimated 44,000 have been directly killed by the violence (UNHCR 2026; ACLED 2025). Many more are estimated to have suffered from war-related disease and malnutrition (Roberts 2025). The decimation of the capital city of Khartoum—the epicenter of the jubilant civilian uprisings in 2019—epitomizes the country’s short journey from a promising democratic opening to a failed state.

Worsening food security in Sudan amid conflict

The conflict in Sudan, primarily between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has escalated since April 2023 into a significant crisis, affecting the nation’s stability and security and worsening humanitarian conditions. The conflict has severely degraded the food security of many Sudanese households, with profound effects on their diets, coping strategies, and overall welfare.

Human capital at risk: The impact of conflict on health and education in Sudan

Human capital, including the knowledge, skills, and health of a population, is the foundation for economic growth and development (Lucas Jr. 1988; Mankiw et al. 1992; Pelinescu 2015). Healthcare and education stand out as critical pillars that directly enhance human capital, influencing individual well-being, workforce productivity, and development (Barro and Sala-i-Martin 1995; Schultz 2003; Hanushek and Woessman 2012). Access to quality healthcare ensures a healthy and productive population capable of contributing to economic activities, while education equips individuals with the skills and knowledge essential for innovation and global competitiveness. Together, these sectors constitute the backbone of a nation’s resilience and long-term prosperity (Kim and Ahn 2020; Wang and Gu 2024).

Cereal production, markets, and policy in Sudan

Cereal production has long been a cornerstone of Sudan’s food security and economy, especially wheat, sorghum, and millet. Given the importance of these staples, policy related to imports and prices of wheat (and sorghum, to a lesser extent) has major effects on food production and consumption. In particular, before 2023, government interventions in wheat markets involved huge implicit—and sometimes explicit—fiscal costs, including interventions on large food aid inflows, official sales prices, direct controls on commercial imports, and subsidies on wheat milling (D’Silva and Badawi 1988; Faki and Taha 2009; Abdelaziz et al. 2022). These policies have generally benefited urban consumers at the expense of rural producers and have not always been well-targeted to the poor (Resnick 2021; Resnick 2026, Chapter 3 in this volume).

Economywide impact of Sudan’s conflict and pathways to recovery

Massive human displacement and economic devastation have resulted from Sudan’s ongoing conflict, which erupted on April 15, 2023, between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, as of February 2, 2026, nearly 12 million people were internally displaced in Sudan, and 4.5 million had sought refuge in neighboring countries (UNHCR 2026). Public services, including health, education, and sanitation, have collapsed in many regions, compounding the humanitarian crisis and further destabilizing the socioeconomic fabric of the country.

Monitoring economic activities: Leveraging satellite and remote-sensing technologies

Understanding disruptions to economic activities in conflict-affected regions such as Sudan is essential for policymakers, humanitarian organizations, and researchers seeking to develop effective response strategies. However, traditional data collection methods, such as official government statistics and household surveys, become unreliable or impractical in these contexts due to security risks, displacement, and institutional breakdowns. In such environments, satellite and remote-sensing technologies provide a powerful alternative, offering near real-time, scalable, and objective insights into economic disturbances, infrastructure damage, population displacement, and environmental degradation. Advances in Earth observation technologies now allow researchers to monitor the economic consequences of conflicts with great accuracy and efficiency, even in regions where on-the-ground data collection is impossible (Hoogeveen et al. 2016; Hoogeveen and Pape 2020; Abay et al. 2023).

Food consumption patterns and dietary diversity amid conflict

Sudan is currently experiencing one of the most severe food security crises globally. According to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) more than 21.2 million people—45 percent of the population—are acutely food insecure (IPC Phase 3 or above), with more than 146,000 people facing catastrophic levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 5) as of February 2026 (IPC 2025). As of September 2025, El-Fasher (North Darfur) and the besieged town of Kadugli (South Kordofan) were classified as experiencing famine (IPC Phase 5) with reasonable evidence. These conditions were expected to persist through January 2026. The crisis has also led to the acute malnutrition of 4.7 million children under five and pregnant and breastfeeding women and girls (IPC 2024a).

A Sudanese strategy for postconflict, agriculture-led transformative growth

The intense factional war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Force (RSF) that erupted in April 2023 has devastated Sudan. This war is a tragic legacy of the kleptocratic regime of General Omar Al-Bashir, which ruled the country from 1989 until it was deposed by the leadership of the two armies in 2019, following a massive popular uprising in December 2018 (see Chapter 2 for details). The presence of a divided military institution in Sudan has been attributed to the coup-proofing strategy of “coup-fearing” autocrats, who were willing to undermine the state’s military effectiveness to extend their own tenure (Powell 2014).

Delivering aid amid active conflict and insecurity: Digital transfers for delivering social and humanitarian assistance in Sudan

The recent resurgence of armed conflict in Africa is increasing the need for shock-responsive humanitarian and social assistance programs. For example, the armed conflict in Sudan, which erupted in April 2023, has caused the world’s largest displacement crisis, creating a multifaceted humanitarian crisis that requires significant investments in assistance. Armed conflicts in Africa are aggravating poverty and hunger (Corral et al. 2020) and threatening important gains in poverty reduction made in the last few decades. This is causing major setbacks to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 (Corral et al. 2020; World Bank Group 2020), particularly SDG2 (Zero Hunger), SDG3 (Good Health and Well-Being), and SDG16 (Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions).

Drivers of vulnerability and low resilience in Sudan

Sudan is currently facing one of the most severe crises in its modern history, with conflict, economic collapse, and climate disasters driving unprecedented levels of instability. Since April 2023, when the conflict erupted between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the country has experienced a complete breakdown in governance and a near-total collapse of key economic and social structures, leading to one of the world’s largest internal displacement crises and an escalating humanitarian emergency.

Shocks, coping, and household livelihood strategies in wartime

Since the eruption of conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in April 2023, Sudan has experienced one of the most severe humanitarian and economic crises in recent history. Beyond the tragic toll in lost and displaced lives, the conflict has profoundly disrupted livelihoods, dismantled social safety nets, and eroded the foundations of food and income security across the country. The ongoing war has affected millions, displacing communities and decimating livelihood systems across both rural and urban areas.

Toward a prosperous and secure Sudan: A way forward

As Sudan’s ongoing conflict enters its third year, the scale of human suffering and economic devastation continues to escalate. The brutal war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has devastated livelihoods, shattered infrastructure, and crippled the country’s agrifood systems and broader economy. Nearly 12 million people—one-fourth of Sudan’s population—have been displaced, including more than 4 million refugees who have fled to neighboring countries such as Egypt, Chad, South Sudan, and Ethiopia (UNHCR 2026). The death toll is estimated to be more than 44,000 as of September 2025 (ACLED 2025), though some assessments suggest fatalities could exceed 150,000 when accounting for deaths from violence, starvation, and disease (Sampson 2025). Children have borne the brunt of this devastation: 16 million are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance, and more than 17 million school-age children are currently out of school. The widespread destruction of hospitals, schools, and essential services continues to deepen the crisis, threatening to reverse decades of development and push the country toward systemic collapse.

Presentations for Three Years of Conflict in Sudan: What the Evidence Tells Us and What Recovery Requires

Spatial disparity, information, and the economics of cool transportation: Insights from a randomized controlled trial in Nigeria

Food loss is a significant source of economic inefficiency in value chains. In many developing countries, including Nigeria, a majority of fruits, vegetables, and other perishable foods are lost after harvest, due in large part to inadequate postharvest handling or low adoption of post-harvest management technologies, particularly cooling technologies such as temperature-controlled transportation and cold storage. To examine the economic impacts of cool transportation connecting vegetable-producing states in northeast Nigeria to large demand centers in Nigeria’s southern regions, we introduced a randomized controlled trial. Cool transportation was found to have a large and statistically significant impact: sales price, revenues, and profits increased substantially for the origin-state marketers. A larger portion of sales price increase at the destination market is attributed to refrigeration, that is, quality preservation through cooling. About 66 percent of this increase comes from cooling, with an additional 34 percent from transportation. An information experiment further showed that improved quality information through labelling that identifies the origin of the produce creates price premiums at the destination market. This implies that significant economic gains can be generated not only from narrowing supply–demand gaps in different markets but also, potentially, through mitigating spatial asymmetric information.

Simplifying crop models into statistical emulators of varying complexity

Process based crop simulation models can be used to anticipate how crop yields behave under different weather conditions which makes them useful for assessing the implications for yields of weather variability, uncertainty, and climate change. However, they can be cumbersome to use or embed in other models. Hence, developing statistical models that emulate the full models can provide a lighter-weight means of harnessing their power for rapid or high-volume assessments.

We develop emulators for several major crops. Climate and fertilizer rates are matched to the yields simulated by a full crop model to provide a dataset covering the entire land surface of the globe. We use neural network specifications to be able to easily try out different levels of complexity. The final selection of the emulator models is a balance between complexity and performance.

The large amount of data meant that the emulators could support complicated specifications. We ultimately settled on models with approximately 200 parameters. Neither rainfed nor irrigated conditions were consistently better performing. In general, the r-squared values of the estimated emulators ranged from 0.85 to 0.95. No crops appeared significantly easier or more difficult to model than the others.

The emulators we developed provide a simple substitute for more complicated crop models when a high level of detail is not needed. The approach can be easily updated with new data or be applied to more specific circumstances if necessary by creating custom datasets that emphasize the particular conditions anticipated to be most important.

War and resilience: The multifaceted impacts of Sudan's conflict and pathways to recovery

Sudan is facing one of the most severe humanitarian and economic crises in its modern history. The current civil war has displaced millions and severely damaged livelihoods, markets, and institutions, causing a rapid deterioration in the economy, agrifood systems, and population welfare.

War and Resilience: The Multifaceted Impacts of Sudan’s Conflict and Pathways to Recovery situates the current conflict within Sudan’s longer historical trajectory, explaining how structural factors contributed to the war’s progression and scale. Drawing on recent household and enterprise surveys, satellite indicators, market price data, and economywide modeling, the book documents the crisis’s impacts and identifies realistic entry points for stabilization and recovery.

Written by leading IFPRI researchers and colleagues, War and Resilience highlights how Sudan’s population has shown remarkable resilience through social networks, remittances, informal support systems, and adaptation across rural and urban settings. Its final chapters offer decision-makers a forward-looking assessment of pathways toward recovery.

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, March 2026

Average retail prices of maize declined by 6 percent in March. Imports of newly harvested maize from Mozambique depressed retail prices in Southern and Central Malawi, while exports to Zambia and Tanzania propped up prices in Northern Malawi, reducing regional price differences in the country.

Creating a taro yield emulator and using it to study climate change impact on taro in Papua New Guinea

This paper develops a taro yield emulator to assess climate change impacts on taro production in Papua New Guinea (PNG). The emulator uses a fixed-effects polynomial regression trained on DSSAT simulations to capture non-linear, stage-specific responses of taro yields to rainfall and temperature. Historical MSWX weather and future climates from CMIP6/ISIMIP3b and a large MIT-IGSM/AgERA5 sample are used to drive the emulator and assess changes in average yields, yield variability, and the frequency of low-yield years across PNG. Our analysis shows that taro appears to be sensitive to both low- and high-rainfall levels during particular phases of growth and is sensitive to heat during particular phases, as well.

Our visit to farmers fields in the Markham Valley along with discussions with experts at GrowPNG in Lae, NARI, and PNG University of Technology in Lae alerted us to the fact that drought was a serious problem for taro, but the model revealed the additional issues with high rainfall and high temperature, along with the additional information about the months that were particularly important for determining the degree of damage that adverse weather might do to yields.

National-average yield changes by mid-century under high-emissions scenarios are projected to be small based on the median projections across climate models, however one of the climate models projects a much larger temperature increase relative to the other models, and for that climate model, the yield reduction is around 9% on average.