IFPRI Datasets

Changes in height-for-age of Egyptian children from 1995 to 2014: Implications for improving child health outcomes

Background
Stunting is a serious health problem in Egypt. Stunting rates and height-for-age z-score (HAZ) distributions changed notably in Egypt over time, yet the factors that led to these changes remain unknown. This study examines the factors associated with these changes and provides important considerations for designing interventions to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of ending all forms of malnutrition by 2030.

Methods
Leveraging data from Egypt’s Demographic and Health Survey for the years 1995, 2003, and 2014, we employ a Recentered Influence Function (RIF) approach that goes beyond the conventional way of measuring stunting as a binary indicator to examine changes across the entire HAZ distribution. The RIF decomposes changes in the HAZ distribution over time into differences attributable to changes in the levels of the determinants of nutrition (covariate effects) and in the strength of the association between these determinants and HAZ (coefficient effects).

Results
The stylized facts show a puzzling increase in stunting rates despite improvements in the level of the determinants of nutrition. Our RIF results attribute the change in stunting rates and other parts of the HAZ distribution primarily to changes in the association between the determinants of nutrition and HAZ (coefficient effects) rather than in the level of the determinants (covariate effects). The results also show that the determinants of nutrition could have heterogeneous impacts at different quantiles of the HAZ distribution.

Conclusion
To reduce stunting rates and achieve the SDG of ending malnutrition, our findings highlight the need for targeted interventions. Interventions should be geographically targeted, promote gender and income equality, improve maternal nutrition, and expand access to better sanitation facilities. This is in addition to wealth redistribution and reforming Egypt’s subsidy program to focus on nutritious food.

Associations between exposure to nutrition, WASH interventions and children’s academic performance in Ethiopia: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Poor nutrition and inadequate WASH (water, sanitation, and hygiene) practices significantly impact children’s health, nutrition, and cognitive development, especially in low-income settings. These factors further aggravate the incidence of undernutrition, weaken the immune system, increase susceptibility to illnesses and reduce cognitive performance. Evidence on the effectiveness of existing WASH interventions is needed.

Objective

This review evaluated the effectiveness of nutritional and WASH interventions on the academic performance of children in Ethiopia.

Methods

A systematic search of Cochrane, DOAJ, Google Scholar, and PubMed (2010–2024) was conducted using MeSH terms and keywords related to WASH. Two independent reviewers screened studies and extracted data. Eligible studies included cross-sectional and cohort studies on Ethiopian schoolchildren with quantifiable academic outcomes. The JBI SUMARI was used to assess bias, and the GRADE approach was used to evaluate evidence quality. The meta-analysis used a random-effects model in Stata and reported pooled RRs with 95% CIs. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses examined moderators such as study design, intervention type, and sample size.

Results

A total of 19 studies, 16 cross-sectional (n= 16) and three prospective (n= 3) cohort studies with a total of 9034 participants, were included. The random effects model revealed a significant improvement in academic performance among students receiving both nutrition and WASH, with a pooled large positive effect size of 2.05 (95% CI: 1.26, 2.28; I2=). In the subgroup meta-analysis, the effect of the intervention was more positive among those who skipped breakfast (3.47, 95% CI: 0.47, 6.47), chronic iodine deficiency (4.49, 95% CI: 4.08, 4.90), food insecurity (2.810, 95% CI: 1.281, 4.339), and underweight (0.61, 95% CI: 0.46, 0.75).

Conclusion

Despite moderate variability and some risk of bias, the evidence supports the integration of comprehensive nutrition and WASH programs into school health initiatives. Future research should focus on long-term effects and cost-effectiveness.

“If you want to have sex you can, if you don’t, you don’t have to”: A qualitative evaluation of the Unite for a Better Life couples program to prevent intimate partner violence in rural Ethiopia

Background
Gender-transformative programing targeting couples is an important strategy to reduce intimate partner violence (IPV), but questions around efficacy and safety remain. This qualitative study explores indications of change and unintended consequences of the gender-transformative Unite for a Better Life (UBL) intervention, using data from the couples’ and control arms of a cluster randomized controlled trial (cRCT) in Ethiopia. The cRCT found no impact on physical and psychological IPV and weak evidence of reductions in sexual IPV in the couples’ arm.

Methods
We analyzed 33 facilitator feedback questionnaires and 29 in-depth interviews (IDIs) among couples conducted approximately 30-months post intervention; 14 participated in UBL delivered to couples, and 15 were from the control arm. IDIs were conducted separately with each member of the couple and analyzed thematically in Dedoose to explore indications of change attributed to UBL.

Results
UBL couples attributed improved household task-sharing, communication, and joint decision-making to the program. Men and women developed more gender-equitable attitudes, leading to more fulfilling relationships. Additionally, most participants in violent relationships reported that UBL led to a reduction or cessation of physical and psychological IPV, and a complete cessation of sexual IPV. These effects were largely attributed to shifts at the individual level for men. Men developed better anger management skills, reduced their alcohol consumption, and increased their knowledge around the consequences of IPV. At the relational level, couples reported increased communication, particularly around sexual desire, and reduced conflict. Additionally, participants reported normative shifts, including decreased acceptance of IPV. There were no reports of changes in control participants nor of major unintended consequences.

Conclusions
When delivered to couples, UBL shows promise in shifting individual-level male factors and relational dynamics and reducing conflict and IPV. This suggests that engaging men in couples can be an effective and safe strategy for IPV prevention.

Assessing the role of food MSMEs in providing employment for women and youth in Ethiopia

Micro-, Small-, and Medium-Sized Enterprises (MSMEs) are often important sources of employment in the food retail environment of Low- and Middle-Income Countries. As a result, policy makers might consider promoting job creation through MSMEs operating in the food environment. In this paper, we study a unique data set collected in two sites in Ethiopia to draw potential policy lessons for job creation based on the characteristics of MSMEs operating in the food environment. The data were collected from among 1,686 food vendors in a neighborhood of Addis Ababa and Butajira, Ethiopia, as part of an effort to better understand the relationship between consumers and the food environment in Ethiopia. Our descriptive analysis suggests that a large share of the enterprises in our sample do not employ anyone beyond the owner, and female-owned enterprises are less likely to hire workers than male-owned enterprises. Moreover, the profits per worker are lower than the cost of a healthy diet, suggesting that without an improvement in profitability it is unlikely that hiring labor would help improve nutritional status. So while the sampled MSMEs may have the potential to deliver food at lower cost, they have limited ability to generate additional employment.

A rapid tool for understanding how knowledge users engage with research findings in research-for-development contexts

Promoting the use of research findings in development projects is essential but often overlooked during study design. Existing frameworks for research use tend to focus on clinical settings and offer questionable applicability to development contexts, which are typically nonlinear, dynamic and cross-sectoral. As a result, there remains a gap in tools that can capture how evidence is intended to be applied by diverse knowledge users in real-world development settings. To address this gap, and drawing on over a decade of experience implementing research-to-action strategies, our objective is to develop a simple research uptake and use tool to better understand and support the use of evidence in research-for-development. We piloted the tool immediately after or 1 month following dissemination workshops, engaging 206 participants across nine sessions in five countries – Kenya, Ethiopia, Bangladesh, Malawi, and Vietnam – to gather insights on which evidence was most relevant, how participants intended to apply it and why they valued it. Although conceptualized with a focus on agriculture and global health research, this framework is broadly applicable across the wider development sector in low- and middle-income countries.

Farmers’ preferences and willingness to accept incentives for adopting sustainable agricultural practices in India

Sustainable agricultural practices are increasingly promoted to mitigate the impacts of climate change on agriculture. However, adoption at the farm level remains limited, often due to trade-offs between tradable and non-tradable ecosystem services. This study examines farmers’ preferences for resource conservation practices and their willingness to accept incentive payments for their adoption in the Indian state of Punjab, where rice has become the most important crop despite its cultivation being unsupportive of its climatic conditions. Following the discrete choice experiment approach, the study included 500 farmers with the following attributes: ecosystem service benefits, income compensation, and carbon credit price. The findings reveal that farmers showed a strong preference for adopting improved farm practices. Saving water and avoiding residue burning are the two most preferred ecosystem benefits by the farmers. However, farmers’ preferences are strongly influenced by factors including carbon credit prices, income compensation, socioeconomic characteristics, and their risk aversion capacity. The estimation of extended random parameter logit (RPL) indicated that switching to direct rice seeding requires compensation of Rs. 29,223/ha and Rs. 29,178/ha for reallocating area from rice to legumes, ceteris paribus. These findings are crucial for policymakers in restructuring the existing incentive structure to accelerate the adoption of resource conservation practices in India.

Conflict, mental health, and labor productivity: Evidence from hired farm workers in Myanmar

Background
Violent conflict can affect worker’s mental health and labor productivity, with implications for agricultural production and food security. Hired farm workers are particularly vulnerable because they often rely on daily wages, have limited assets, and face insecure employment, yet evidence on how conflict affects their mental health and productivity remains limited. This study examines the associations between conflict exposure, mental health, and labor productivity among hired farm workers in Myanmar.

Methods
We conducted a cross-sectional phone survey of 1,504 hired farm workers across Myanmar. The survey collected information on workers’ demographic characteristics, work activities during the past 12 months, absenteeism, self-reported labor productivity (presenteeism), agricultural labor market conditions, job characteristics, job and life satisfaction, mental health, workplace harassment, and access to information. These primary survey data were matched with conflict event data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED). Mediation analysis was used to examine whether mental health mediates the relationship between conflict exposure and labor productivity outcomes.

Results
Overall, 39% of workers were exposed to conflict and 20% met the criteria for trauma. Compared with non-exposed workers, conflict-exposed workers were more likely to experience trauma (27% vs. 17%), more frequently absent from work (28% vs. 23%), and reported lower work performance (7.0 vs. 7.4). In multivariable mediation analyses, conflict exposure was associated with a 7-percentage-point higher likelihood of absenteeism and a 0.15-point lower work performance score. Trauma significantly mediated these associations, increasing the total association between conflict exposure and absenteeism by approximately 18%.

Conclusions
Our findings highlight the need for greater research and policy attention to the socio-psychological implications of conflict, which can erode labor productivity. They also reinforce the case for increased investment in mental health interventions, which have been severely reduced amid widespread budget cuts despite their potentially high cost-effectiveness.

Do precision land management technologies improve farm efficiency? Evidence from laser land levelling in India

Context:
The Indian agriculture system is increasingly constrained by resources and climate vulnerability, with rapid groundwater depletion. This is creating an urgency for adoption of resource-efficient agricultural technologies to address sustainability challenges in intensively irrigated systems. Laser land levelling (LLL) has emerged as a prominent resource and precision land management technology.
Objective:
The study tries to examine the key determinants of LLL adoption and its impact on paddy productivity in Punjab. Secondly, the study also evaluates the technical efficiency of LLL in paddy production. Finally, we examine heterogeneity in technical efficiency outcomes separately for marginal landholders to assess whether the efficiency gains from LLL adoption vary by farm size.

Methods:
Primary survey data is collected from 885 farmers from 12 districts in Punjab, India. The sample comprises of 527 (60%) adopters and 358 (40%) non-adopters of LLL. We use a probit model to identify the key drivers of adoption and derive the inverse mills ratio for correcting the sample selection bias. The, we use propensity score matching to estimate causal impact of LLL adoption on paddy yield. Finally, we apply the stochastic production frontier framework with sample-selection correction to evaluate the technical efficiency levels.

Results and Conclusions:
The findings highlight that LLL adoption increases paddy yield by 2.64 quintals/acre. Efficiency estimates show that adopters achieve approximately 3% higher technical efficiency compared to non-adopters. Moreover, adoption decisions are influenced by structural and asset-related factors, including education, landholding size, and ownership of tractors and pumpsets. Notably, efficiency gains are larger for the marginal farmers, suggesting that smaller landholders may have greater scope of improvements from LLL adoption.

Significance:
This study contributes two fold: It provides a new empirical evidence on the determinants and impact of LLL adoption in paddy cultivation. Secondly, we develop an integrated econometric framework to address selection bias and evaluate efficiency outcomes of LLL adoption. The study highlights the multidimensional benefits of LLL in enhancing productivity and efficiency, supporting its promotion as a climate-smart technology in improving resource-use efficiency and reducing groundwater stress in rice-based farming systems in India.

Locus of control, climate change adaptation and perception: Evidence from rural Ethiopia

Despite an overwhelming scientific consensus about the adverse effects of climate change and potential adaptation strategies, the uptake rates of climate adaptation practices fall short of expectations and public perceptions about the drivers and implications of climate change remain mixed. This paper examines whether farmers’ psychological traits, particularly locus of control, predict climate adaptation strategies. We focus on adoption of drought-tolerant varieties, fast-maturing varieties, early/late planting varieties, crop diversification, conservation agriculture, and water harvesting technologies using a large household survey from Ethiopia. We also explore climate change perceptions, and whether and how they align with actual climatic records. We find that farmers with a higher degree of internal locus of control are more likely to adopt various climate adaptation practices and are more likely to perceive changes in mean precipitation and temperature, while those with a higher level of external locus of control are less likely to perceive climate change and hence less likely to adopt climate-resilient practices. One standard deviation increase in internal (external) locus of control is associated with 3–5 percentage points higher (lower) probability of adopting alternative climate adaptation practices. We also find suggestive evidence that farmers’ climate adaptation responses are consistent with their climate perceptions and actual climatic records. These findings highlight the important role of behavioral attributes, including psychological traits, in explaining climate perceptions and subsequent climate actions.

Distance, prospects, and migration to towns and cities

The impact of spatial shifts of paddy fields on CH4 emissions in China, 1990–2020

The two sides of migration in Central America: Aggregate and distributional impacts in Guatemala

International migration affects labor supply, production patterns, and external income flows in origin countries, yet our understanding of its economy-wide and distributional consequences remains limited, particularly with regard to the role of return migration. This study integrates detailed microdata on migrant profiles into a general equilibrium model applied to Guatemala to examine how emigration and return migration affect macroeconomic performance, sectoral dynamics, and household welfare. We simulate three scenarios: a reference scenario reflecting recent-historical emigration patterns (MIG-0), a reduced-emigration scenario (MIG-1), and a net-return migration scenario (MIG-2), capturing recent shifts in emigration and return flows by skill level. Results reveal trade-offs between aggregate economic performance and distributional impacts across households. Compared to a baseline economy with no mobility, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rises modestly under the reference scenario (+0.2 percent) and by additional 0.3–0.5 percentage points under the reduced-emigration and net-return scenarios, driven by expanded labor supply from returnees and currency depreciation. Non-agro-processing manufacturing shows the largest expansion (up to 1.8 percent), reflecting its strong labor-absorption potential. Household welfare, especially among remittance-dependent households, is highly sensitive to these flows, with income and consumption declining under the two counterfactual migration scenarios. These findings underscore the need for policies that facilitate returnee reintegration and strengthen social protection for remittance-dependent households, ensuring that the macroeconomic gains from migration adjustments translate into equitable welfare improvements.

After quantification: Insights from India’s Soil Health Card scheme

As the concept of soil health gains prominence, it becomes increasingly important to examine how states design and implement soil health policies. Does soil health offer a novel pathway to enact and legitimize institutional changes toward more sustainable farming systems, or does it risk becoming another neologism that preserves status quo, productivist agriculture? We explore these questions through an analysis of one of the most ambitious state-led initiatives organized around soil health: India’s Soil Health Card (SHC) scheme. The SHC scheme seeks to provide every farmer in the country with bi-annual soil test reports, based on the assumption that improved information will encourage more judicious use of fertilizers and pesticides. The assumption reflects a broader emphasis within the agricultural sciences on the importance of quantifying soil health. Drawing on government documents and farmer perception studies (n = 38), we find that although farmers view the cards positively, they make few substantive changes to their farming practices. As an illustrative case, India’s grand SHC scheme shows that quantification alone is insufficient and could even dampen momentum for transformative policy reforms. Effective and durable change lies in pairing efforts to quantify soil health with (a) plural epistemic approaches to knowledge production, (b) participatory models for knowledge dissemination, and (c) structural reforms in the agri-food system that address issues around land tenure and subsidies.

Hcropland30: A hybrid 30-m global cropland map generated by leveraging global land cover products and Landsat data via deep learning

Integrated hydrological and economic assessment of hydropower and irrigation development in Sudan under climate change

Demands for water, energy, and food are rapidly increasing in many low- and middle-income countries, driving the development of large-scale hydropower and irrigation projects. As climate change poses major risks and uncertainties for large-scale infrastructure investments, it is essential to stress-test infrastructure development plans to address these challenges and strengthen resilience. The Nile is one of the world’s longest rivers, draining approximately 10% of Africa’s land surface; Sudan accounts for around 40% of the basin area, and several new large hydropower and irrigation infrastructure projects are planned. We develop an integrated analytical framework for the Nile River system, utilizing 16 climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) 6 and hydrological, river system, and Computable General Equilibrium models to evaluate the biophysical and economic impacts of hydropower and irrigation development in Sudan under climate change. The results indicate a projected increase in the naturalized streamflow of the Nile by 2050 due to climate change. A phased hydropower and irrigation development strategy in Sudan – targeting a total of 1,500 MW of hydropower capacity and approximately one million hectares of irrigated wheat – is projected to increase annual hydropower generation by up to 8.1 TWh and expand total wheat area by 283% by 2050. These developments increase the undiscounted national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) during 2030–2050 by US$ 0.1 to 0.4 billion per year, with larger increases occurring under high economic growth pathways. This research highlights the interconnected nature of climate change, water resource development, and economic performance, underscoring the importance of integrated assessment in informing investment decisions.

Tajikistan Rural Household Survey (TRHS) 2025

The Tajikistan Rural Household Survey (TRHS) is a survey data collection effort led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Tajik Academy of Agricultural Sciences (TAAS). It is an ambitious attempt to generate data critical to filling pertinent evidence gaps on the livelihoods and the resilience of rural households in Tajikistan. The TRHS interviewed 3,267 households in the country's three most populated regions (Sughd Region, Khatlon Region, and Districts of Republic Subordination).

The in-person household survey includes a household-level questionnaire that was administered to any knowledgeable adult household member. An accompanying individual-level questionnaire was administered in private to one randomly selected household member, aged 18 to 54 years old. In households were no adult was present in the specified age range, another household member 55 years or older was allowed to respond to the individual-level questionnaire. The dataset also consists of a brief enumerator survey.

Global agrifood systems outlook to 2050

This is an embargoed publication to be available on 10 September, 2026.

Register for the launch event: https://www.ifpri.org/event/global-agrifood-systems-outlook-to-2050-informing-decisions-under-uncertain-future/

Aligning private incentives with societal goals in smallholder agriculture

Why water matters for Africa's food systems: A Call to Action for irrigation investment

Less than 5 percent of Africa's cultivated land is reported to be irrigated, leaving farmers, livelihoods, and economies exposed to erratic rainfall, drought, floods and associated economic shocks. Irrigation is key to agricultural intensification, enabling year-round production, allows farmers to grow higher-value, nutrient-dense crops, creates jobs and wealth and strengthens food supply chains and markets. Irrigation is, moreover, an enabler of other agricultural inputs, ensuring that productivity-increasing inputs and technologies don’t go to waste as a result of dry spells but instead generate yields and farmer incomes.

Africa's irrigation potential is considerable: estimates point to roughly 33 million hectares suitable for farmer-led groundwater irrigation and 6 million hectares for additional surface water irrigation. But realizing this potential sustainably means aligning national investment decisions with underlying basin and aquifer conditions; agro-ecological zones; competing water demands (such as for nature, households, and industry); and infrastructure and technology possibilities. The African Union’s Framework for irrigation development and agricultural water management (IDAWM) describes key underlying conditions for investment and scaling complementary irrigation development pathways.

‘From assuming to knowing’: How impact evaluations support the design, delivery, and scale-up of school meal programs

School meal programs improve children’s nutrition, food security, and mental well-being. When meals are produced locally, these programs also build more robust economies.
-But not all school meal programs were created equal.
-With changes to how food is procured and delivered, governments and other partners can make school meals go so much further.
-Impact evaluations help governments understand what works, for whom, and under what conditions by comparing different procurement and delivery models while school meal programs are under way.

Do ultra-poor graduation programs build women’s resilience to weather shocks? Evidence from rural Ethiopia

We assess whether layering an ultra-poor graduation program on Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) protects women and their households from localized weather shocks. Using panel data from a large cluster-randomized trial matched with detailed weather records, we identify community-level exposure to dryness shocks. Women who are exposed to dryness shocks experience deteriorating nutritional status (in conjunction with declining household food security and assets) and a significant increase in the risk of intimate partner violence. However, access to the graduation program fully buffers women from any increase in intimate partner violence, and partially buffers women and their households against other adverse effects. Further analysis suggests that improved household savings likely drives the program’s protective impact.

The impact of targeted transfer programs on labour supply: Evidence from rural China

Preservation of the IFPRI record: A case study of institutional repository mergers and migrations

At its core, a repository migration is the transfer of records from one system to another. In some cases, it is more of an unraveling, repair, relocation, and rebuilding of a historic property. In 2024, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) library undertook its second migration from an independent CONTENTdm repository to a shared DSpace repository. The institute set an ambitious goal to complete the migration within a single contract cycle with CONTENTdm. Since 2012, the repository has functioned as a bibliographic metadata layer serving the main corporate website, numerous project sites, and the global consortium (CGIAR) website, as well as a digital publishing platform and institutional metrics and reporting system. The team started working with a combination of tools, including: Microsoft Excel, OpenRefine, and custom scripts. Microsoft Excel allowed staff to easily see and manipulate large amounts of data across different metadata fields. OpenRefine (version 3.7) was instrumental in normalizing and cleaning name and keyword variations, as well as locating and editing a single repeated datapoint. The scripts, created by a member of the team and author of this paper, saved hours of time and allowed the team to meet ambitious goals. The team successfully migrated over 20,000 records within 13 months while simultaneously improving metadata quality. Prior to the migration, about half of journal articles lacked external links and several dozen PDFs had been lost over time. Additionally, from 2008–2017, IFPRI’s records experienced an average of 40% link rot. All of these issues were resolved during this process. Furthermore, the IFPRI record is now interoperable with the other CGIAR institutions and external search engines. While repository and metadata management remain ongoing tasks, this migration represents a significant step forward in preserving institutional knowledge, adopting established standards and best practices in knowledge management, supporting consortium activities, and enhancing the visibility of agricultural research outputs.

Collecting Holistic Evidence on Agroecology Performance to Accelerate Sustainable Food System Transitions

A growing body of research shows the potential of agroecology for enabling a shift to planet-friendly and socially just agrifood systems through context-specific transition pathways. We conduct a scoping review to identify and evaluate the potential of 42 existing agroecology adherence and/or agricultural performance assessment tools to generate credible, legitimate, salient and transferable evidence to inform these transitions. Results show that while multiple relevant tools exist, each of them can be strengthened in at least one area. While most tools are transferable (low time and resource requirements) and have legitimacy (open access with transparent methods), tools have variable saliency (holistic scope inclusive of local priorities) and credibility (use scientific design principles and quality assurance processes). For a subset of 11 tools collecting multidimensional performance data, analysis of 263 identified indicators showed there is a bias towards economic measures (notably income, yield, and resilience), while certain social (e.g. land tenure, traditional knowledge retention) and environmental (e.g. climate mitigation) aspects are regularly overlooked. Through a multidisciplinary process engaging experts across 8 countries, we develop a Holistic Localized Performance Assessment for agroecology (HOLPA) framework that integrates and builds on positive features of existing multidimensional agroecology performance assessments tools and overcomes key limitations. The HOLPA framework for analysis, agroecology indicators, key performance indicators, and low-cost localization process can be used to strengthen agroecology performance assessments, empowering landscape actors to identify evidence-based pathways towards agrifood systems where both people and nature can thrive.

Food on the go: How engagement with the food environment affects adolescent diets in northern Vietnam

As adolescents grow older, they increasingly engage with the food environment. Our study aimed to: 1) assess the contribution of prepared out of home (POH) foods to the healthiness of adolescent diets and 2) identify socio-demographic factors associated with POH foods intake in a rural, a peri-urban, and an urban area of Vietnam.

We conducted a cross-sectional survey among 11–19-year-old adolescents (n = 2,861) and collected socio-demographic and dietary intake data (24-hour recall). The healthiness and micronutrient adequacy of diets was assessed using the Global Diet Quality Score (GDQS) and the micronutrient adequacy ratio (MAR) respectively. We used regression analyses with robust standard errors (to account for school-level clustering) to assess the consequences and identify the drivers of POH food intake.

Over 80% of adolescents consumed foods POH on the previous day, contributing 22–26% of daily energy intake. Healthy food groups were underrepresented in POH foods, which were higher in fat, saturated fat, and sodium, but also had higher micronutrient density than foods prepared at home. POH intake was associated with higher energy intake and micronutrient adequacy, but lower diet healthiness. Socioeconomic status, female sex, pocket money, and smartphone ownership were associated with POH consumption, with site-specific differences.

Food environments should be made healthier through front-of-package warning labels, reformulation (e.g., reducing milk fat and sugar), and restrictions on the marketing and availability of unhealthy foods combined with the promotion of healthy foods, snacks and meals.

Associations between hygiene practices and carcass contamination by Escherichia coli and coliforms in bovine slaughter facilities in rural Kenya

Carcass contamination during slaughter poses a significant threat to meat safety and public health, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. This cross-sectional study, conducted in 25 bovine slaughter facilities in Busia County, Kenya, assessed contamination levels at four anatomical sites on cattle carcasses: rump, flank, brisket, and neck. The study also examined the association between slaughterhouse hygiene practices and microbial contamination by Escherichia coli and coliforms. A total of 193 carcasses were sampled after carcass dressing before sectioning, and E. coli and coliform loads were quantified using MC-Media Pad®. Statistical analyses revealed that contamination levels varied significantly across carcass sampling sites for both coliforms (p = 0.008) and E. coli (p = 0.026), with the brisket showing markedly higher contamination than the rump for coliforms (median 2.15 vs 1.61 log10 CFU/cm2, p = 0.004) and E. coli (median 1.04 vs 0 log10 CFU/cm2, p = 0.020). Key risk factors for increased contamination included carcass contact with the floor, splashing water from wet floors, and visible fecal matter on animal hides. These findings highlight the need for targeted hygiene interventions during slaughter, improved infrastructure, and stronger enforcement of meat safety regulations to reduce contamination and ensure safer meat products for consumers.

From farmer-centred design to algorithmic participation: Navigating technical demands and normative discourses in digital extension

Digital extension and farmer-centric design are increasingly presented as complementary strategies for transforming agricultural innovation systems: digital extension promises scale and efficiency, while farmer-centric design is expected to ensure relevance, inclusivity, and legitimacy. This paper challenges the assumption that these approaches are naturally aligned. Through Critical Discourse Analysis, we examine how farmer-centricity is enacted within digital extension initiatives and how its normative commitments are reshaped as digital platforms evolve. Empirically, we analyse two digital extension platforms developed between 2014 and 2024, one in the Global North and one in the Global South. Drawing on public-facing media, organisational records, design documents, and technical walkthroughs of each platform, we trace how normative, technical, and interpretive frames interact across different phases of platform development. Our findings show that, in early phases, digital extension is framed as enabling farmer-centric design, supporting decentralised design practices, epistemic pluralism, and farmer sovereignty. Over time, however, farmer-centricity becomes instrumentalised to support the scaling of digital extension through data generation, peer diffusion, and environmental accountability, placing new forms of labour and responsibility onto farmers without a commensurate redistribution of authority. These tensions are not resolved but reconfigured through design practices, often obscured by the rhetoric of empowerment and responsiveness. We conceptualise this dynamic as algorithmic participation: a form of participation mediated through digital infrastructures that anticipate and steer farmer engagement in ways that stabilise existing innovation logics. The paper contributes to debates on farmer-centric design and digital extension by showing how even well-intentioned practices can reproduce structural inequalities.

A participatory framework to assess agricultural sustainability: Cover cropping as an illustrative example

This study developed an analysis‐oriented agricultural sustainability framework to assess how on‐farm biodiversity‐enhancing agricultural practices impact outcome‐based indicators of environmental, economic, and social sustainability. Building on an existing national‐scale agricultural sustainability assessment framework, we adapted it to evaluate farm‐level practices. Using an iterative design, we engaged stakeholders through a farmer survey and workshop to refine indicator selection and ensure contextual relevance. We used biodiversity‐enhancing practices in the Midwestern United States as an illustrative example of how the framework could be applied. Workshop participants were asked to use cover crops as an example to consider how this class of practices affected agricultural sustainability. Our findings highlight that stakeholder engagement during framework development can improve the relevance and specificity of indicator selection, supporting more targeted quantitative analysis for decision‐making.

The gendered effects of rainfall shocks on stunting: Evidence from Papua New Guinea

Rainfall fluctuations significantly reduce welfare for poor rural households in low- and middle-income countries dependent on rainfed agriculture for consumption, and the effects of these shocks can be borne disproportionately by vulnerable household members, particularly children and girls. We present new evidence around the effects of rainfall fluctuations on child anthropometric status in Papua New Guinea, an understudied context characterized by some of the highest stunting rates in the world. We show that negative fluctuations in rainfall within the first 12 months of life lead to a reduction in height-for-age and weight-for-age (though not stunting), but this effect is observed only for girls.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of iron, vitamin A, and zinc biofortification in selected low- and middle-income countries: A modelling study

Background
Crop biofortification is an important tool to improve micronutrient deficiency, but the evidence of its cost-effectiveness remains limited.

Objectives
This study aims to estimate the cost-effectiveness of biofortified crops to address iron, zinc, and vitamin A deficiency in 13 countries.

Methods
We used the burden of disease (BoD) measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) compiled by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), supplemented by a literature review, to quantify DALYs resulting from micronutrient deficiencies. Data and assumptions from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) were used to estimate micronutrient intake and the potential impact of biofortification on micronutrient intake to calculate the efficacy of biofortification in reducing DALYs under conservative, moderate, and optimistic scenarios. The cost was estimated for 30 years (2024-2053) while the benefits were for 20 years (2034-2053). An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), defined as additional cost per DALY averted, was estimated.

Results
The total cost of biofortification programs varied across countries, ranging from $4.28 million in Guatemala to $34.04 million in Nigeria over 30 years. The ICERs of biofortification varied by type of crop and country; regardless, all are cost-effective using GDP-based cut-offs, except for biofortified cassava and sweet potatoes in Zimbabwe. For example, for iron biofortification of beans under the conservative scenario, ICER was as low as $58.04 per DALY averted in Kenya and as high as $535.52 per DALY averted in Zimbabwe, demonstrating the range of cost-effectiveness of the intervention among the countries selected for the study. A similar pattern was found for iron biofortification of pearl millet; vitamin A biofortification of cassava, maize, and sweet potatoes; and zinc biofortification of rice, wheat, and maize in most countries.

Conclusion
Biofortification of staple crops by selective plant breeding is potentially cost-effective to address iron, zinc, and vitamin A deficiencies.

Adolescent-selected food intake and engagement with the external food environment contribute to unhealthy diets in Accra, Ghana

Background
As adolescents gain autonomy, they interact more independently with their food environments, increasing their vulnerability to rapidly changing and often unhealthy food environments. In Accra, Ghana, unhealthy foods and beverages are widely available and heavily marketed.

Objective
To assess the healthiness and nutrient adequacy of adolescents’ diets in Accra; and to examine whether diet healthiness is associated with independent adolescent food selection and their engagement with home, school and outlet food environments.

Methods
We conducted a cross-sectional study using quantitative 24-hour dietary recalls among 911 adolescents aged 12 to 18 years living in five low- and five middle-class neighborhoods in Accra. For each food and beverage consumed, we documented who selected it and where it was obtained and consumed. We calculated the Global Diet Quality Score (GDQS) and the prevalence of adequate intake for fruits and vegetables, protein, fiber, total sugar, total fat, saturated fat and 11 micronutrients. Mixed effects models assessed associations between independent adolescent food selection and food acquisition location (home, school, or other food outlets), and diet healthiness and macro- and micronutrient intake.

Results
A large proportion of adolescents consumed excessive amounts of total sugar (49%) and total fat (44%) and inadequate amounts of fruits and vegetables (98%), fiber (45%), and eight of the eleven micronutrients assessed (39-100%). Greater adolescent-selected food intake (62% of energy intake, on average) was associated with lower GDQS and intakes of fruit and vegetables, protein, fiber, and six micronutrients, and with higher sugar intake (P<0.05). Greater reliance on foods from the external food environment (school: 14%, other outlets: 46%) showed similar associations with poorer dietary indicators. Conclusion Strengthening the design, implementation and enforcement of coordinated food policy bundles is needed to shift adolescents’ preferences towards healthy foods, and reduce the availability, accessibility, and appeal of unhealthy options in their food environments.

Wildfire shocks, labor markets, and public policies: Economy-wide evidence from a Mediterranean country

Using the 2017 Portuguese wildfires as empirical evidence from a Mediterranean climate country, this paper assesses the economy-wide and employment effects of wildfire-related capital and labor shocks through a static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with an extended labor-market framework. The analysis focuses on how wildfire shocks interact with labor markets, affect aggregate welfare, and condition the effectiveness of public policy responses. The results show that labor-market disruptions amplify economic losses beyond direct physical damage. Among the policy scenarios examined, comprehensive responses combining infrastructure investment, sector-specific support, and household transfers provide the strongest mitigation of aggregate losses. Recovery and mitigation policies generate the strongest positive effects on GDP, while the fire suppression-cost scenario alone has limited effectiveness. Employment impacts are concentrated in the primary and tourism-related sectors, particularly forestry, agriculture, transport, and accommodation. The findings highlight the importance of maintaining labor-force participation during climate disasters and of combining capital restoration with household support. By quantifying the economy-wide trade-offs between wildfire damage, labor-market disruption, and public-response channels, the paper provides evidence relevant to wildfire-prone Mediterranean economies and to broader environmental-development debates.

Who is leaving African agriculture? Nine stylized facts on youth, women, and agrifood employment in 15 countries

Sub-Saharan Africa faces an unprecedented labor market challenge: over the next decade, hundreds of millions of young people will enter a workforce still concentrated in the agrifood system (AFS). Yet the demographic structure of AFS employment remains poorly understood, i.e., how youth and women participate across farming, processing, trade, and food services across the region. Here we analyze disaggregated employment data across 15 sub-Saharan African countries, differentiating AFS employment by age and sex across three country groups defined by their stage of structural transformation. We report nine stylized facts that challenge prevailing narratives. Contrary to common belief, youth are not disproportionately exiting agriculture relative to adults. Women and youth are more concentrated in the nonfarm AFS, especially in diversified economies where such opportunities are more prevalent, but gender segmentation deepens with transformation as male employment becomes more concentrated in commercial agriculture and women dominate downstream food-service roles. These patterns call for differentiated, transformation-aware policies to make AFS employment more productive and inclusive for Africa's youth and women.

Debt in the context of crisis: The evolution of lending in Myanmar

Key Highlights
- Household indebtedness has declined substantially. Between 2021 and 2025, the share of households in debt in rural areas fell by 21 percentage points and in urban areas by 9 percentage points. This decline is partly due to credit markets no longer functioning, particularly in conflict-affected areas.
- Informal lenders dominate Myanmar’s credit market. In 2024–2025, 80 percent of loans originated from informal sources, while only 21 percent came from formal financial institutions or the public sector.
- Relatives and friends are the largest source of credit, accounting for 53 percent of all loans, followed by moneylenders with 20 percent. Private banks account for only 1 percent of loans.
- Most loans are used to meet basic household needs, with 43 percent used for food purchases and 27 percent used for health expenditures.
- Debt is concentrated among vulnerable households, including the asset poor, wage laborers, households with larger family sizes and higher dependency ratios, and those affected by economic and climate shocks.
- Loan repayment difficulties are widespread and are associated with poorer welfare outcomes, including reduced spending on food and healthcare, higher income poverty, lower food consumption, and poorer dietary diversity.

Since the 2021 military coup, households in Myanmar have faced overlapping economic, climatic, and conflict-related shocks that have severely disrupted livelihoods and increased financial vulnerability. In this context, borrowing becomes an increasingly important coping strategy for households seeking to smooth consumption, manage shocks, and maintain basic welfare. But despite its importance, formal and informal sources of debt have shrunk, forcing many to go without debt. Using data from the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), this paper examines patterns of household indebtedness, sources and uses of loans, repayment difficulties, and the relationship between debt and household welfare outcomes.

In the first round of the MHWS (December 2021–February 2022), 61 percent of households were in debt, including 67 percent of rural households and 48 percent of urban households. Since then, the share of households owing money has fallen by 21 percentage points in rural and farm households and by 9 percentage points in urban households, suggesting growing supply-side constraints in lending.

Eighty percent of loans are from informal lenders, with only 21 percent sourced from formal financial institutions or the public sector. Informality is considerably higher in urban areas, where 89 percent of households had informal loans, compared with rural areas, where 76 percent of households had informal loans. This difference appears to be driven primarily by farmers, who are still able to access some government and formal lending for agriculture.

Overall, most debt is held by relatives and friends (53 percent in 2024-2025). This is followed by money lenders (20 percent). Shops and traders are also important sources of credit (8 percent), particularly for wage laborers. Again, farmers appear to retain some access to public sector loans (10 percent). MFIs represent the second largest source of formal lending (9 percent). Finally, private banks make up a very small share of loans in the country (1 percent).

Food on the go: How food environments shape adolescent diets in Viet Nam

Key takeaways
- Most adolescents in Viet Nam eat food prepared outside the home, survey data show, especially for breakfast and snacks.
- The nutrition effects of these foods are nuanced. They increase unhealthy fat and sodium intake but also provide key vitamins and minerals.
- Food environments shape what adolescents eat. Healthier food options and stronger nutrition policies can improve diets.

IFPRI in Africa: Partnering for evidence-based transformation

Africa is undergoing a profound, multidimensional transformation, propelled by a dynamic youth population, urban growth, adoption of technology, vibrant entrepreneurship, expanding regional integration, and evolving governance structures, which are reshaping economies, societies, and agrifood systems. Yet the pace of change has been uneven, and the full potential of agrifood systems to drive inclusive transformation remains underutilized. To meet this challenge, African leaders have charted a clear path and ambitious agendas: Agenda 2063, the CAADP Kampala Declaration and 2026–2035 Strategy and Action Plan, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFT), regional economic community strategies, and national flagship programs all define an ambitious, Africa-driven agenda for agrifood systems transformation.

Papua New Guinea food price bulletin: August 2026

This bulletin reports on food price trends from major markets in Papua New Guinea (PNG), for the second quarter (Q2) of 2026 using the data collected by Fresh Produce Development Authority (FPDA). During this period, two rounds of data were collected in all markets in May 2026. In April, two rounds of data were collected in Banz, Goroka, Kokopo, Lae and Mt. Hagen markets; however, only one round of data was collected in Port Moresby. In June no survey data collection was conducted in Kokopo and Mt. Hagen, whereas Banz, Goroka, Lae and Port Moresby each had one round.

This report analyzes month-over-month changes in Q2 2026 (April to June) and available data through August for selected markets. The bulletin compares prices with the previous quarter (Q1 2026: January to March) and the same period in 2025 (Q2 2025). Prices are reported in real PGK per kilogram (i.e., adjusted for inflation using the FAO Consumer Food Price Index (PCI) and price gaps from July 2025 to August 2026 filled using a growth rate calculated from quarterly PCI data provided by the PNG National Statistical Office (June and September 2025). This bulletin focuses on selected staples (sweet potato, taro, cassava, cooking banana and rice), vegetables (English cabbage, capsicum, and carrot) and fruits (pawpaw and pineapple). For longer time series data and interactive tools, visit the IFPRI website to create graphs, compare prices and commodities, and download food price data here.

Sustainable fisheries development and resilient coastal livelihoods in southern Yemen: Project research synthesis

This note synthesizes the research studies carried out under IFPRI’s Sustainable Fisheries Development and Resilient Coastal Livelihoods in Southern Yemen project. Key findings include:
- Fisheries development policy and assistance in Southern Yemen have faced large gaps in data and knowledge—particularly regarding fish consumption and food security implications, use of ice for chilling fish, and measurement and monitoring of artisanal fishing activities.
- Fish is a highly nutritious food, an important part of Yemeni diets, and much more affordable than meat. Improving household access to fish, especially in inland areas, is essential for improving food security and reducing malnutrition. Restoring and expanding domestic (and export) markets should be a priority of fisheries development policy.
- Ice is widely used within some links of artisanal fisheries value chains, but fishers and market retailers employ ice strategically. Consumers’ willingness to pay for ice use is low compared to the high cost of ice and the demand for high-quality fish is currently very limited, making ice use unprofitable for many small fishers. Investments in energy supply and ice production to lower costs and in consumer awareness campaigns on food safety and fish quality to increase willingness to pay are crucial to maintain an uninterrupted cold chain and achieve quality-led value addition in artisanal fisheries value chains.
- A complete fishing information and monitoring system for the Gulf of Aden that captures both artisanal and commercial fishing vessels is urgently needed for sustainable fisheries development. Deep-learning-based remote sensing provides a low-cost solution for high-frequency data collection to analyze and track difficult-to-detect artisanal fishing activities and changes in local fishing fleets.

The informal sector in China: The role of institutional reform and digital transformation on enterprise formalization

This paper examines the dynamic evolution of economic informality in China along two dimensions: business registration (the extensive margin) and formal labor protections within registered firms (the intensive margin). Leveraging administrative records alongside micro-survey data from OSOME (2020–2026) and ESIEC (2018 and 2025), we evaluate how institutional reforms and digital transformation shape formalization incentives. While market-oriented regulatory reforms—such as the landmark 2014 business registration reform—fueled an unprecedented expansion in formal enterprise creation, stringent labor regulations unintentionally inflated intensive-margin informality. Simultaneously, the rapid rise of digital platforms and fintech ecosystems has created a platform substitution effect, enabling micro-enterprises to access credit, build consumer trust, and operate flexibly without state licenses. Consequently, we observe an informality paradox: extensive-margin informality remains widespread and is counterintuitively higher in China's most developed, highly digitized cities.

From satellite images to real-world impact

In the paddy fields of Odisha, India, many farmers cultivate land they do not own, and thus do not have land titles that can be used as collateral to obtain formal credit for agricultural activities. Instead, they must rely on informal, often high-interest loans. But digital technologies are offering new ways to integrate smallholders into the financial system. In Odisha, satellite images would prove to be a crucial tool to verify what farmers grow—providing an alternative form of collateral and reliable access to credit.

Determinants of food price transmission from international to domestic markets

Food price transmission determines the speed of and extent to which international food price shocks affect domestic markets and consumers, an issue of particular importance in low-income countries. Incomplete food price transmission is also implicated in exacerbating international food price volatility because it makes global supply and demand less elastic. This paper explores the factors that influence the degree of price transmission from international maize, rice, and wheat markets to domestic food markets. Using 147,000 observations of monthly food prices, we first estimate food price transmission in 711 markets in 81 countries. Then, the degree of food price transmission across these 711 markets is estimated as a function of country and commodity characteristics.

The results from the first stage indicate that about half (48%) of the domestic food prices were cointegrated with their corresponding international grain price. Among the vector error correction (VEC) models, the median price transmission is 52% after 6 months and 69% after 12 months. Among the vector autoregressive (VAR) models, price transmission was markedly lower, with the median leveling off below 7% after four months. The second-stage results suggest that both market frictions and policy play a role in incomplete transmission of food prices. Food price transmission is significantly lower in landlocked countries, where grain imports or exports are a small share of domestic use, and in Africa and Asia relative to Europe and Latin America. Price transmission is also lower where grain tariffs are high and variable over time, suggesting that trade policy plays a role. These results appear relatively robust, with only minor changes when we estimate the model with different dependent variables, other combinations of independent variables, different thresholds for the stationarity tests, and alternative cointegration tests. The results have implications for the measurement of the welfare impact of international food price shocks and for strategies to reduce the volatility of international grain prices.

Myanmar monthly food price report – July 2026

Rice prices increased moderately in July 2026, with the national average rising by 3.6 percent month-on-month and 10.1 percent year-on-year. Regional price disparities persisted, reflecting differences in production conditions, market access, and transport costs.

Most export crop prices showed mixed movements. Maize prices declined following strong export activity earlier in the year, although prices remained well above year-earlier levels. Black gram and pigeon pea prices increased on expectations of stronger import demand from India, while green gram prices showed limited movements amid increasing quality requirements across export markets.

Most export crop prices showed mixed movements. Maize prices declined following strong export activity earlier in the year, although prices remained well above year-earlier levels. Black gram and pigeon pea prices increased on expectations of stronger import demand from India, while green gram prices showed limited movements amid increasing quality requirements across export markets.

Most animal-sourced food prices remained substantially above year-earlier levels, while month-on-month movements were mixed. Chicken and egg prices increased notably amid higher feed costs, limited supplies of large-sized chickens, and reduced egg production associated with higher input costs and disease outbreaks. Mutton prices remained at record highs. Fish prices also remained above previous year, although increased catches following the resumption of fishing activities contributed to lower prices for some fish products.

The conflict in Iran and the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a major transit route for global oil and fertilizer trade, are raising concerns for Myanmar’s agrifood system, which depends heavily on fuel for transportation, irrigation, mechanization, and processing. During the 2026 monsoon, some farmers reported cultivating smaller areas or reducing plowings because of higher fuel costs. Fertilizer prices also remain substantially above last year’s levels, while crop output prices have changed relatively little, reducing the profitability of fertilizer use and potentially leading to lower application rates and agricultural production.

Flooding has affected monsoon rice cultivation in some areas, while flood warnings have been issued for other parts of the country, including areas along the Bago and Sittaung rivers. While the reported impacts on rice cultivation remain geographically limited, continued monitoring of flood conditions will be important given potential implications for crop production, transportation, and food supply chains.

Collaborative leadership strengthens research capacity and climate action: Lessons from Tamil Nadu, India

Key takeaways
- Local leadership builds lasting research capacity. In a collaborative project in Tamil Nadu, transferring ownership to local partners helped to ensure long-term sustainability.
- Aligning research with local priorities improves impact. Collaboration with local and national stakeholders strengthened adoption and relevance.
- Capacity development goes beyond technical training. Management, communication, and leadership skills were critical to project success.

A gender-just food systems transition

What works to strengthen climate resilience for smallholder farmers? Evidence from Kenya

Smallholder farmers face increasing climate uncertainty that makes investing in agriculture both more important and more risky. Droughts, erratic rainfall, and other weather shocks threaten crop production, while rising input costs and volatile markets make it difficult to recover from a poor harvest. As a result, many farmers hesitate to invest in technologies that could improve productivity and resilience, including crop insurance, stress-tolerant crop varieties, agronomic advice, and other productivity-enhancing innovations.

Many of these technologies already exist, yet adoption remains low. Insurance products may not inspire confidence, farmers may not understand how different technologies complement one another, digital advisory services may fail to engage users, and women often face additional barriers to accessing agricultural services and participating in agricultural decision-making. Strengthening farmers' resilience therefore requires more than developing new technologies—it also requires designing, delivering, and scaling them in ways that reflect how farmers make decisions and the constraints they face.

To better understand how to strengthen farmers' resilience to climate-related risks, researchers from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Wageningen University partnered with Innovations for Poverty Action (IPA), Agriculture and Climate Risk Enterprise (ACRE Africa), and the Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization (KALRO) to evaluate a package of innovations across seven counties in Kenya. Through randomized evaluations and complementary qualitative research involving more than 6,000 smallholder farmers, the partnership generated evidence on how the design, delivery, and accessibility of agricultural risk-management tools influence farmers' adoption decisions and resilience to climate shocks.

This brief synthesizes the key lessons and highlights their implications for governments, insurers, agricultural service providers, and development partners.

Financing social protection in Africa: Lessons for strengthening social protection systems in Ethiopia

Ethiopia has made significant strides in its effort to expand social protection programs, both in terms of expanding coverage and in terms of variety and investment in these programs. However, Ethiopia’s social protection system continues to face significant challenges amid growing demand for social assistance and competing needs. Despite the expansion in coverage, the share of population benefiting from social protection programs remains far below demand and global averages. Similarly, spending and sources of finance for social protection remain relatively limited, with the financing structure of many programs being heavily dependent on external donor support, raising concerns about long-term sustainability. At the same time, the country continues to face an increasing demand for social assistance due to climate shocks, conflict, and economic volatility. In this paper, we compile evidence and compare Ethiopia’s experience with selected successful cases (from Egypt, Kenya, and South Africa) to draw lessons for strengthening sustainability in financing of social protection programs. By assessing both the achievements and remaining challenges, we draw recommendations on how Ethiopia can strengthen its social protection system, both in terms of coverage and sustainability. While Ethiopia can still increase public finance on social protection programs and improve allocation of public finance as well as efficiency in targeting and delivering social protection, we also identify some innovative and unconventional sources of finance to support safety net programs. These include: social or development impact bonds, climate and disaster risk financing, as well as blended public-private investments for development and social goals. We also identify some domestic experiences and community-level indigenous arrangements that can be scaled-up further. We finally highlight that tapping these financing mechanisms and arrangements entail strengthening domestic and indigenous institutions as well as trust in public-private partnerships.

When the rains fail, who goes hungry? Rainfall, gender, and child nutrition in Papua New Guinea

Key takeaways
- Low rainfall hurts young girls’ nutrition. A study in PNG found that below-average rainfall in a child’s first year of life reduced height-for-age and weight-for-age scores for girls under 5, while boys showed no comparable effects.
- Even routine rainfall shortfalls matter. The analysis focused on normal year-to-year rainfall variation, not major disasters, yet still found measurable impacts on child nutrition in rural PNG.
- Drought responses should consider gender. As PNG prepares for a potential El Niño-driven drought, policymakers may need targeted measures to protect girls and address unequal household burdens during food shortages.

Toward scalable agricultural insurance: Early evidence from a dynamic trigger program in Kenya

Smallholder farmers in Kenya face substantial production and marketing risks driven by climate variability. In the arid and semi-arid areas of Eastern Kenya, rainfall is erratic even within a single season, yet most farmers depend on rain-fed production with little or no access to irrigation, credit, or savings to fall back on. Without a way to cushion these shocks, farmers are often reluctant to invest in inputs such as improved seed, fertilizer, and better agronomic practices that could raise their yields and resilience in good years. It is this chronic exposure to unpredictable and largely uninsurable risk that led the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), in collaboration with Kenya's Ministry of Agriculture, to design and scale an agricultural index insurance product for farmers in Eastern Kenya under the Kenya Agricultural Insurance Program (KAIP).

Policy responses to rising global fuel prices: A rapid assessment for Papua New Guinea

Global crude oil prices have surged following the war in Iran and disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, creating a dual economic challenge for Papua New Guinea (PNG). Rising import costs have triggered severe imported inflation, while Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and crude oil exports deliver windfall revenues. In response, the government introduced a K1 billion (USD 230 million) relief package to freeze fuel prices and waive excise duties and the Goods and Services Tax (GST). This study examines three policy issues: the pass-through of higher import costs to domestic food and non-food prices and their effects on food consumption; the broader macroeconomic implications of sustained global fuel shocks; and the fiscal trade-offs of fuel subsidies against LNG export gains. Short-run price multiplier analysis shows rapid transmission of import costs to consumer prices and household microsimulation analysis shows commensurate effects on household food consumption. Medium-term Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) model simulations reveal PNG’s dependence on refined petroleum imports leaves GDP vulnerable to contraction, even as LNG revenues rise. Windfalls accrue mainly to capital-intensive resource firms, while real exchange rate appreciation undermines competitiveness. Fuel subsidies stabilize consumer prices but cannot offset wider macroeconomic volatility. Policy options include recalibrating subsidies to allow gradual price adjustment, maintaining a managed exchange rate with controlled depreciation, and diversifying exports beyond LNG to strengthen resilience against external shocks.

Modernizing Bangladesh's social protection system: Priorities for greater effectiveness

Bangladesh has made considerable progress in reducing poverty and improving human development, with social protection playing an important role in protecting vulnerable households and supporting human capital. The Government has demonstrated a strong commitment to social protection, particularly through the National Social Security Strategy (NSSS) adopted in 2015 and subsequent efforts to streamline programs.

Despite this progress, the social protection system faces persistent challenges. The system remains fragmented across numerous programs and ministries, significant targeting errors persist, and benefit levels are often inadequate. A substantial share of social protection spending is directed toward programs that do not primarily benefit the poor, while many vulnerable households remain inadequately covered. Addressing these shortcomings has become increasingly important as Bangladesh confronts rising food prices, slower economic growth, and climate-related risks.

Bangladesh now has an important opportunity to modernize social protection. Recent efforts to consolidate programs and the introduction of the Family Card Program provide a foundation for building a more coherent, inclusive, and effective system. The priority should be to improve the quality and effectiveness of spending rather than simply increase the overall budget.

This policy note presents a roadmap for building a more efficient, equitable, and adaptive social protection system. It recommends scaling up successful programs while phasing out inefficient ones. By improving targeting and reducing benefit leakage, social protection coverage for poor households can be significantly expanded even within the current budget.

The gendered game: Effects of experiential learning on decision-making and water saving in India

This paper addresses two key questions related to gender equity, agricultural production, and sustainable natural resource management. First, given the importance of women’s decision-making in agriculture for their own empowerment and better agricultural outcomes, what are effective ways to strengthen women’s participation in agricultural decision-making? Second, is women’s participation in agricultural decisions associated with more water-conserving production choices? We analyze these questions by examining the impact of a novel experiential learning intervention with games, debriefing, and crop water budgeting, designed to address groundwater depletion in India. Results of a randomized control trial in 472 communities indicate that playing the game significantly increased women’s participation in choosing the crops their household grows in the post-monsoon season—specifically, their likelihood of deciding alone. Men who played the game were also more likely to make crop choice decisions alone, though the effect was smaller. Path analysis shows women’s involvement in crop decision-making is associated with more water-conserving decisions: women who decide alone report their household grows significantly less water-consumptive crops and irrigates less land in the post-monsoon season, when groundwater is scarce. Even when women decide jointly with their husbands, households grow less water-consumptive crops, though the effect is smaller. By contrast, when men and women decide with other relatives, households cultivate more area overall, suggesting that the learning from the game is less effective when more people are involved in decisions. Experiential learning games are thus a promising strategy to strengthen women’s agricultural decision-making, and this may also lead to more sustainable resource management.

Market intelligence, entrepreneurial behavior, and profitability in agriculture: Evidence from a randomized controlled trial in northern Uganda

Smallholder farmers often make production decisions with limited information about market conditions, leading to suboptimal farm profits. This challenge is particularly important in the production of fruits and vegetables, which are often rich in micronutrients and can serve as high-value cash crops but are also highly perishable. We evaluate a bundled, market-oriented horticulture intervention in northern Uganda designed to shift farmers’ mindset from “grow and sell” to “grow to sell”, by promoting their engagement in active market intelligence activities, in addition to support for production. Using a cluster-randomized design combined with panel data methods, we find that treated farmers increased production revenues by 20–25%, profit margins by about 11 percentage points, and prices received by roughly 20%, without increasing family labor use. These gains are accompanied by noticeable behavioral changes, including more frequent and more diverse collection of price information and expanded buyer networks. Mediation analysis indicates that improvements in market intelligence explain a meaningful share of these effects. The results suggest that interventions that strengthen farmers’ ability to align production decisions with market demand can generate substantial income gains. These findings highlight the importance of integrating market intelligence into agricultural extension systems.

What will it take to sustain a national school feeding program in Nigeria? Lessons from two decades of implementation

Nigeria’s experience with school feeding over the past two decades has been characterized by repeated starts, interruptions, and attempts to rebuild the program. The Home-Grown School Feeding and Health Programme was launched in 2005, but implementation was discontinued several years later after federal funding ceased. The program was revived in 2016 as the National Home-Grown School Feeding Programme (NHGSFP) and expanded to a reported 9.9 million beneficiaries by 2022. However, NHGSFP implementation then stalled, and the program was formally suspended in January 2024. NHGSFP has since been restructured as the Renewed Hope National Home-Grown School Feeding Programme (RHNHGSFP). However, implementation has so far been limited to pilot activities in Lagos and Kano states.

Experiences at the state level show that school feeding programs can succeed when state governments are willing and able to finance and manage the program. Osun continued its program after federal funding was withdrawn. The state later operated O-Meals with state government support, although the program is no longer running. Zamfara and Kebbi provide a more recent example. Zamfara state introduced a school feeding pilot in 2025 and has since begun expanding it, with early evidence of increased school attendance, while Kebbi is currently feeding some junior and senior secondary schools through state funding. These experiences point to the importance of state government commitment, financing, and capacity to manage program delivery.

Several weaknesses are evident across the federal and state experiences. School feeding programs still lack a dedicated national statutory framework. Coordination between institutions and across levels of government remains weak. Financing has not kept pace with rising food prices, and the role of aggregators and wholesalers in the food supply chain is not adequately monitored. Finally, school feeding program monitoring systems focus more on the number of children fed than on whether the program is achieving its intended education, nutrition, and livelihood outcomes.

The main issue, therefore, is not whether school feeding can work in Nigeria. It can. Rather, it is whether the country has the institutional arrangements to keep school feeding programs running when political leadership, funding conditions, and administrative structures change. The experience of the past two decades suggests that another relaunch of a national school feeding program, without addressing these institutional weaknesses, risks repeating the same cycle of expansion and interruption. The focus should therefore be on putting in place the legal, financing, coordination, supply-chain, and accountability arrangements needed to support a program that can be sustained over time.

Conservation and restoration actions in a multifunctional landscape: Lessons from Tunisia

Key takeaways

Multifunctional landscapes deliver food, income, and environmental gains together. Across four sites in northwestern Tunisia, treating land, water, agriculture, and ecosystems as one system improved soil, water, biodiversity, productivity, and incomes at once.

There is no single template for success—many models work. Farmer-led innovation, community action, public forest management, and public-private partnership each succeed; choosing the right one depends on local land tenure and governance.

Evidence drives adoption—yet the full value of these landscapes has yet to be documented. Measurement converts skeptics into investors. An IFPRI-ICARDA effort to evaluate ecosystem services across these sites aims to close that gap.

Transmission of the 2026 geopolitical energy shock: Fuel, food prices, and welfare implications in Nigeria

Key findings:
- The 2026 geopolitical energy shock increased global oil prices by approximately 60 percent, leading to a 14–15 percent increase in domestic fuel prices in Nigeria.
- Higher fuel prices were transmitted rapidly to food markets through increased transportation, storage, milling, and distribution costs, with the strongest impacts observed for local rice, imported rice, wheat flour, and garri.
- Food prices exhibited high persistence, suggesting that the effects of the energy shock are likely to extend beyond the initial shock period.
- Estimates from a simulation of the shock’s impact on household welfare show increases in food poverty (+3.4 percentage points) and undernourishment (+2.9 percentage points) and declines in food expenditure (−3.9 percent) and calorie intake (−3.1 percent).
- Urban households experience larger declines in food expenditure and diet quality, while rural households experience larger increases in food poverty.
- The findings highlight the importance of strengthening transport systems, improving energy security, and expanding targeted social protection to reduce the vulnerability of food systems to external energy shocks.

IFPRI country and regional offices report: January–June 2026

The first half of 2026 was a period of continued growth, adaptation, and strategic engagement for IFPRI’s country and regional offices under the Development Strategy and Governance Unit. Across Africa, Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and the Pacific, country and regional teams strengthened their role as trusted partners to governments, regional organizations, and development partners, combining rigorous analytical work with sustained policy engagement, capacity strengthening, and implementation support.

The operating environment remained challenging. Many countries continued to grapple with fiscal constraints, climate shocks, conflict and insecurity, food price volatility, and evolving donor priorities. Governments increasingly sought practical support in identifying policy options and designing, sequencing, and implementing reforms. Across the portfolio, IFPRI responded by deepening its engagement in areas such as food systems transformation, agricultural productivity, nutrition, climate resilience, digital innovation, social protection, and institutional strengthening.

Several country offices reached important milestones during the reporting period. The establishment of IFPRI’s new office in Papua New Guinea significantly expanded the Institute’s presence in the Pacific, while country teams in Ethiopia, Nigeria, Kenya, Malawi, Bangladesh, and India strengthened long-standing partnerships with governments through policy support, analytical work, and implementation-focused engagement. In Sudan and Myanmar, IFPRI continued to demonstrate the value of sustained analytical capacity in fragile settings, providing timely evidence to inform humanitarian response, market monitoring, and recovery planning. China, Egypt, and the regional offices further strengthened IFPRI’s contribution to international policy dialogue, South–South cooperation, and regional collaboration.

A notable feature of the reporting period was the increasing emphasis on implementation. Across countries, IFPRI’s work extended beyond policy analysis to include support for implementation readiness, institutional capacity, policy coordination, and adaptive learning. Governments increasingly turned to IFPRI for assistance in translating evidence into operational programs, reflecting growing recognition that successful development depends on sound policy choices and effective institutions and delivery systems.

Partnerships remained central to this work. Country and regional offices continued to work closely with national governments, regional organizations, CGIAR science programs, universities, development partners, civil society, and the private sector. These collaborations strengthened both the quality and uptake of research while helping to mobilize new resources and expand IFPRI’s reach. The reporting period also demonstrated the resilience of country teams in responding to funding uncertainty through diversification of partnerships and closer integration across IFPRI’s research portfolio.

Taken together, the first half of 2026 saw the continued evolution of IFPRI’s country and regional offices into a global network of embedded policy platforms. Although the largest concentration of activity remains in Africa, the growing engagement across South Asia, East Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and the Pacific illustrates the increasing reach of IFPRI’s country-based model. By combining scientific excellence with long-term partnerships and implementation-oriented policy support, these platforms are enabling IFPRI to respond more effectively to diverse national and regional priorities while generating lessons that benefit countries around the world.

Closing the gender and youth gap for healthier soils: Women’s and youth’s agency as levers of change

Healthy soils are fundamental to food security, climate resilience, and sustainable livelihoods, yet soil degradation affects up to 40 percent of the world’s land, threatening agricultural productivity and leading to significant economic and environmental costs. Recurring fuel, fertilizer, and food price crises limit farmers’ access to fertility-enhancing inputs and increase the risk of soil nutrient mining and land degradation, with negative consequences for both soil health and food security.

Effective soil management requires investments and informed decision-making, but these are shaped by social norms, gendered roles, and resource constraints, including women’s and youth’s limited access to land ownership, credit and inputs, and extension services. These same constraints also limit the uptake of women’s valuable knowledge about soils and soil management. With 60 percent of youth in Africa working in agriculture, obstacles preventing them from accessing land and agricultural credit likewise dramatically lower the effectiveness of today’s soil health recommendations.

Importantly, virtually all fertilizer, soil health, and plant nutrient interventions continue to overlook gender- and age-related inequalities in access to resources, decision-making power, and benefits, which reduces their effectiveness. Gender- and youth-responsive approaches to soil health management are needed to accelerate the adoption of effective practices; improve agricultural productivity, food security, and nutrition; and promote inclusive agricultural transformation.

Rethinking digital inclusion: User agency in agri-advisory design and delivery

Key takeaways

-Digital inclusion for agricultural advisory tools requires more than access and usability. Farmers should also have agency to shape how technologies are designed and used.
-Farmers are active innovators, not passive users. Their knowledge, feedback, and adaptations are essential for making digital tools relevant and effective.
-Low adoption is a predictable outcome of poor design. Digital tools work best when they reflect farmers’ needs, priorities, and local realities.

IFPRI-Sudan, Evidence and partnerships for resilient markets, rural livelihoods, and recovery in Sudan: Portfolio and partnership overview

Sudan's protracted conflict has created a profound humanitarian, economic, and institutional emergency. Reliable evidence is difficult to generate precisely when it is most needed for targeting assistance, protecting livelihoods, restoring markets, and preparing for recovery. Since May 2022, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has worked through the Sudan Strategy Support Program (SSSP), combining conflict-adapted data collection, economic and policy analysis, impact evaluation, institutional assessment, capacity sharing and strengthening, and sustained policy engagement.

IFPRI-Sudan now operates a broad portfolio spanning market intelligence, food security, agriculture, livelihoods, social protection, private-sector resilience, political economy, and economic recovery. The portfolio applies IFPRI's 2026-2030 systems framework to Sudan's fragile and conflict-affected context: clarifying conditions and outlooks; testing and scaling solutions; strengthening enabling institutions; and building durable tools, methods, and capacity across five interconnected themes. The program serves humanitarian and development decision-makers at the same time, producing evidence that is immediately usable while strengthening the analytical and institutional foundations for an inclusive, sustainable recovery. The IFPRI Sudan publications catalogue and interactive tools provide continuously updated, open-access entry points to this evidence.

This overview presents established platforms and on-going work, recent research outputs, and separately labeled research ideas under development. Those ideas are adaptable to different partnerships and should not be interpreted as funded projects or commitments unless formal agreements are completed.

Intersecting gender and youth financial inclusion in agrifood systems: Evidence from northern Nigeria

The agrifood system employs one-third of the global workforce, yet young women and men continue to face persistent constraints to joining this workforce, including financial exclusion. Financial exclusion constrains agricultural employment by limiting young people’s ability to engage in work and to scale operations. Yet the existing literature often overlooks how gender and youth intersect within these dynamics.

Using intersectionality theory and institutional analysis, this study examines barriers to financial access and adaptation strategies among young men and women (ages 18–30) in northern Nigeria’s agrifood systems. The analysis draws on 61 semi-structured interviews and 51 focus group discussions with young women and men, alongside key informant interviews with financial service providers and market actors, across five northern Nigerian states with large populations that are “unbanked,” meaning not engaged with formal financial institutions.

Drawing on these qualitative data, the study reveals that formal and informal financial institutions jointly reproduce patterns of unequal gendered access. While young men leverage wider mobility and networks to secure trading capital, young women’s restricted mobility and limited collateral confine them to smallscale processing with few growth prospects. Financial exclusion is further compounded by geography, insecurity, and the gendered structure of digital finance. Youth adapt to these institutional gaps through collective savings, trust-based credit, and in-kind payments. The study calls for gender-sensitive, digitally inclusive financial services that complement informal systems, offering an integrated institutional–intersectional framework for promoting inclusive agrifood systems transformation. Its central contribution is an institutional–intersectional analysis of financial exclusion in agrifood systems, showing how formal and informal institutions jointly, rather than separately, produce gendered patterns of access.

What is the current evidence on the effectiveness of climate finance interventions in improving climate resilience and socioeconomic outcomes among smallholder farmers in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)?

Climate finance is central to climate-resilient development, yet evidence on its effects on smallholder farmers remains fragmented across financing instruments and outcome measures. This study conducts a systematic review, guided by PRISMA 2020, to assess how grants, concessional loans, insurance, carbon finance, public investment, and private capital influence the livelihoods and resilience of smallholder farmers in developing countries, with attention to women. The review will synthesize impacts on access to climate-smart technologies, irrigation, improved seeds, advisory services, markets, and livelihood diversification, as well as outcomes including productivity, income stability, food security, adaptive capacity, asset accumulation, and women’s economic empowerment. It will examine distributional effects, implementation conditions, and evidence gaps across regions and farmer groups. By linking finance mechanisms to intermediate and long-term outcomes, the study aims to identify which forms of climate finance work, for whom, and under what conditions, thereby informing inclusive and effective climate finance policy and programming.

Implications of ice use on consumers’ willingness to pay for fresh fish: Findings from experimental auctions in Hadramawt fish markets

An experimental auction conducted with 426 fresh fish consumers in Mukalla and Qusayir fish markets in Yemen reveals the following key findings:

- There is a modest price premium of 77 YER per fish for fish that is sold on ice compared with fish not sold on ice, across the sample.
- Compared with the sample average, the price premium in Mukalla is more than two times higher, with a difference of 162 YER per fish between fish sold on ice and not.
- There is no price premium for fish on ice in Qusayir.
- More than 60 percent of shoppers in both markets have positive perceptions about the use of ice to improve fish quality.
- The use of ice is not the most important consideration when shoppers are making their purchasing decisions, rather, the price of fish is deemed most important.
- The price premium appears to be too low to incentivize retailers to offer fish on ice to shoppers, considering high costs of ice.

Fish is highly perishable and requires an uninterrupted cold chain to maintain both observable, organoleptic quality characteristics and food safety, which is not directly observable. Yet the use of ice by artisanal fishers and fish retailers in coastal markets for fresh fish is limited in Hadramawt Governorate–the center of Yemen’s artisanal fisheries in the Gulf of Aden (Belton et al., 2026). While increased use of ice by fishers and retailers could improve fish quality and safety in consumer markets, rigorous evidence is lacking on consumers’ perceptions about the use of ice and their willingness to purchase fish placed on ice.

Count on me: Shocks and formal versus informal assistance in Somalia

Somali households face repeated drought, conflict, and price shocks, and rely on both formal and informal support to manage these shocks—but existing evidence only examines one channel at a time.

We find that informal support reaches twice as many households as formal support (64 versus 32 percent), with 29 percent of households receiving neither. IDP residence raises formal receipt by 36 percentage points; consumption poverty predicts neither channel.

Only informal support tracks local conditions: a one standard deviation rise in produced staple prices raises informal receipt by 6.5 percentage points. There is little evidence of pronounced gender heterogeneity in these patterns.

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, July 2026

Retail prices of maize increased on average by 8 percent in July.

Prices rose most sharply in the Southern region, increasing interregional differences.

Continued maize imports through all monitored border locations helped keep Malawian prices low.

Putting advocacy into practice at the Gen Z Food & Hunger Summit

Key takeaways

-Youth participation is essential for lasting food security progress. Gen Z leaders are helping shape policies and programs that address hunger and strengthen food systems.
-Successful advocacy blends evidence with personal experience. Data and real-world stories can make a stronger case for policy action.
-Hands-on engagement builds confidence and leadership skills. Direct conversations with policymakers helped participants turn advocacy training into action.

Reviving millets in India: Understanding consumption decline and demand-side constraints

Millets are increasingly promoted as climate-resilient and nutrient-dense crops in India’s food systems transformation. Yet, despite rising policy support, their consumption continues to decline. This paper analyzes long-term trends and demand-side determinants of millet consumption using nationally representative data from Household Consumption Expenditure Surveys (2011–2012, 2022–2023, 2023–2024). Results show a steep decline in per capita millet consumption of more than 80 percent in rural areas since the late 1980s and a sharp reduction in the share of millets in total cereal consumption. Using a double hurdle model, we find that millet consumption remains concentrated among rural, lower-income, and less-educated households, with limited uptake among urban and higher-income groups. Participation in the Public Distribution System (PDS) increases the likelihood of consumption but reduces consumption intensity, indicating substitution with subsidized rice and wheat. We document a large production–consumption gap of nearly 14 million tons, suggesting increasing diversion of millets toward feed and processing uses. The findings highlight the need to rebalance cereal policies and strengthen demand-side incentives to integrate millets into modern food systems.

Paving the way: The impact of road infrastructure on agricultural productivity in isolated African settings

Road infrastructure is a key driver of agricultural growth and transformation. Using three large nationally representative, randomly sampled survey datasets and group-time difference-in-difference estimation strategies, this study establishes the relationship between paved road access and crop productivity in Malawi. Results reveal significant positive effects of access to paved roads on crop productivity, as measured by the average value product of land. They further reveal a growing impact over time, with estimated productivity increases ranging from 35% to 57% over a span of 10 years. This confirms that road infrastructure is a key enabler of sustained agricultural productivity growth, thus providing a strong justification for the allocation of more public resources toward investments in rural road networks that can improve market access, reduce transport costs and postharvest losses, and create incentives for the adoption of productivity-enhancing technologies.

Understanding soil health in practice: Insights from India’s Soil Health Card scheme

Key takeaways

-India’s Soil Health Card scheme has reached hundreds of millions of farmers but simplified soil health into a limited set of standardized measurements, a study shows.
-Providing information alone was not enough to change farmer fertilizer practices or encourage widespread adoption of recommendations.
-Stronger farmer engagement and local input are needed to make government-led soil health programs more effective.

Limits of site-specific fertilizer recommendations: Evidence from a Malawi experiment

Key takeaways

-Fertilizer recommendations derived from soil tests of farmers’ plots, when provided on their own, produced no measurable change in fertilizer use or maize yields among Malawian smallholder farmers.
-The same recommendation paired with a $100 voucher raised fertilizer use on the soil-tested plot and lifted maize yields by about 20%.
-Yet voucher recipients generally did not follow the recommendations, spending the money on a mix of fertilizers closely resembling that offered by the standard subsidy program.

Measuring the state of global food insecurity: A mix of methods, and a mix of messages

Key takeaways

-Food insecurity measures often disagree. Different indicators can suggest very different trends and identify different countries as most vulnerable.
-Data gaps hinder accurate monitoring. Low-income and crisis-affected countries are the least likely to conduct the surveys needed to track food insecurity.
-Stronger country-led surveys are essential. More coordinated, high-frequency data collection could improve food security monitoring and policy responses.

Can digital financial services improve household coping capacity? Evidence from nationally representative cross-sectional data in Kenya

Digital financial services (DFS) have expanded financial access in Kenya, but their contribution to household coping capacity may differ substantially across product types. This paper examines trends and socioeconomic correlates of DFS adoption and the associations between DFS use and household coping capacity using nationally representative FinAccess surveys from 2019, 2021, and 2024. The analysis combines descriptive statistics and pooled logistic regressions with inverse-probability-weighted-regression adjustment and propensity score matching. We distinguish between mobile banking savings, mobile money savings, mobile banking loans, mobile provider loans, and app-based digital credit. Mobile phone ownership, internet access, education, income, and financial decision-making are important correlates of adoption, though significant gender and regional disparities remain. Digital savings show the broadest and most consistent positive associations with household coping capacity. Mobile banking savings are associated with an increase of 14 percentage points in emergency saving, an increase of 7.5 percentage points in access to emergency funds, and reductions of 4 and 2.7 percentage points in food insecurity and difficulty accessing medical care, respectively. Mobile banking loans provide narrower benefits, mainly for financial planning and emergency liquidity. In contrast, app-based loans are associated with reduced emergency savings and financial endurance. The findings show that the welfare implications of DFS depend critically on product type. Savings-led digital finance can strengthen household preparedness, while short-term app-based credit may increase financial vulnerability.

Unlocking climate finance for Kenya’s women dairy farmers

Key takeaways

- Women dairy farmers in Kenya face growing climate risks but often cannot access the finance needed to adapt and protect their livelihoods.
- A recent gathering brought together farmers, other stakeholders, and finance partners to explore ways to develop digital lending tools and gender-focused finance.
- A proposed climate finance consortium could connect farmers, lenders, cooperatives, and researchers to expand access to suitable climate investments.

Tensions in the Black Sea and regional droughts spark rising global wheat prices

Key takeaways

-Wheat prices have climbed sharply in recent weeks as drought and Black Sea shipping disruptions tighten global supplies.
-Global wheat production is expected to decline among major exporters, reducing available stocks and export volumes.
-Market volatility is increasing as weather risks, conflict, and trade disruptions create greater uncertainty for wheat markets.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: June 2026

This report monitors prices, availability, and market conditions for essential commodities across Sudan in June 2026, covering cereals, pulses, vegetables, animal products, agricultural inputs, fuel, exchange rates, labor markets, and trader perceptions. Commodity prices generally increased during the month, particularly for wheat flour, pulses, vegetables, meat products, cooking oil, sugar, and fuel, while perceived availability declined across most food and input categories, indicating tightening market conditions. Fuel price increases in parallel markets, depreciation of the Sudanese pound, and persistent regional disparities, especially in Darfur and Kordofan states, continued to place pressure on market access and affordability. Surveyed traders reported fewer supply chain, liquidity, and demand-related constraints than in previous months, although challenges remained concentrated in conflict-affected areas such as Khartoum and North Darfur. Despite rising prices and weaker availability, most merchants expected to maintain or expand trading activities over the following one to three months, suggesting cautious optimism about market continuity.
-Abstract generated by Copilot AI 2.2

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: July 2026

This report provides an update on prices, availability, and market conditions for essential commodities across Sudan in July 2026, covering staple foods, vegetables, livestock products, agricultural inputs, fuel, exchange rates, labor markets, and trader perceptions. Prices increased across most commodity groups, including cereals, pulses, vegetables, meat products, sugar, cooking oil, fertilizers, and fuel, while trader-reported availability generally declined, indicating worsening market pressures and tighter supplies. Regional disparities remained pronounced, with Darfur and Kordofan states consistently recording some of the highest food and fuel prices and lower commodity availability. Market actors reported increased supply chain and demand-related challenges compared with June, although financial constraints remained relatively limited and most traders expected to maintain or expand their trading activities in the coming months. The report highlights the combined effects of rising parallel-market exchange rates, increasing input and fuel costs, and declining market availability on food affordability and market performance in Sudan.
-Abstract generated by Copilot AI 2.2

Agricultural recovery and resilience in Sudan: Findings from the THABAT Project baseline survey of farmers

This report presents the findings from a baseline survey of farmers conducted as part of IFPRI’s impact evaluation of a sub-component of the food security component of the THABAT project in Sudan. The report documents farmers’ pre-intervention conditions across agricultural production, input access, climate-smart practices, food security, market conditions, and institutional trust in the three states in which the project is being implemented—Kassala, Northern, and River Nile.

Sudan’s ongoing conflict has severely disrupted agricultural systems, markets, and rural livelihoods. The Sudan Enhancing Community Resilience Project (THABAT) provides resilience-oriented agricultural support that is critical for sustaining food production, protecting livelihoods, and supporting local economic recovery (‘thabat’ in Arabic means ‘stability’ or ‘firmness’). The project is a USD 130 million initiative financed through the Sudan Transition and Recovery Support Trust Fund (STARS) Multi-Donor Trust Fund. This report focuses on Component 2 of the project, which aims to enhance food security through directly providing agricultural production inputs, both goods and services, to farmers.

The baseline survey covered 1,308 beneficiary farmers from 115 farmer organizations across the three project states during the 2025/26 agricultural year. The main findings from the analysis of the survey data include:
• Beneficiary farmers demonstrate relatively strong agricultural production potential despite operating in a fragile and conflict-affected environment.
• Agricultural input support from the THABAT project reached most households, especially climate-adapted improved seeds for wheat, sorghum, and vegetables, and DAP and urea inorganic fertilizers.
• However, adoption of climate-smart and adaptive agricultural practices, beyond the use of climate‑adapted improved seeds and fertilizers, generally remains low.
• The food security indicators of beneficiary farmers are stronger than those seen in broader crisis-affected populations in Sudan. However, food insecurity levels vary substantially across the three project states.
• Farmers continue to face major structural constraints to their economic activities that are related to inflation and currency fluctuations. They also face significant barriers in accessing markets, financial services, and technology, and are subject to substantial conflict-related risks.

Healthier diets: A global economic modelling study of income and employment impacts across regions

Interest has grown in how to achieve healthy, sustainable, and affordable human diets. The potential income and employment effects of a transition towards healthier diets have received much less attention. We simulate aggregate and sectoral income and employment for business-as-usual and healthier diets for all geographic regions up to 2050 using scenario-based modelling. These healthier diets can increase food’s share of household expenditure in some regions, for example from 18% to 25% in East and Central Africa in 2050. Our results suggest that a global shift towards healthier diets leads to a reallocation of primary factors of production, especially low-skilled labour and capital, from non-agricultural sectors to crop agriculture in parts of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Notably, in 2050, with healthier diets, agriculture’s share of low-skilled labour increases by 3.2 percentage points in East and Central Africa and 1.5 percentage points in South Asia excluding India. Although Gross Domestic Product increases in these regions relative to business-as-usual, this reallocation raises agriculture’s share of Gross Domestic Product, consistent with a slower pace of long-run structural transformation. The reallocation leads to a mild increase in wages for low-skilled workers relative to high-skilled workers in most of these regions, compared to business-as-usual. However, in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, food price increases outweigh wage gains for low-skilled labour, reducing real purchasing power. Policies that encourage healthier diets may also alter income and employment and reduce economic welfare of poor populations in some regions, so care is needed in policy design to avoid adverse unintended consequences.

Interpersonal communication and maternal behavioral practice: A case study of explanatory causal machine learning in Nepal

Background
There is increasing interest not only in whether a program produced impacts but also the mechanisms through which the impacts were produced. Studies of nutrition interventions have frequently highlighted the role of nutrition education interventions, but few studies have investigated the paths through which those interventions achieve impact.

Objectives
We assessed the total effect of maternal exposure to interpersonal communication with a frontline worker on behavioral practice and the degree to which that effect operated through 2 key pathways: improved awareness and knowledge. We also conducted a comparative case study examining the differences between machine learning (ML) and structural equation model (SEM) approaches.

Methods
We used data from the endline cross-sectional survey of the quasi-experimental Suaahara study of 2040 mothers with a child less than 2 years of age. We estimated the total effect of maternal exposure to interpersonal communication with a frontline worker on her nutrition-related practices and the indirect effects through improvements in awareness and knowledge using ML and conventional SEMs. Models were adjusted for household, child, and maternal factors as well as household location.

Results
Maternal exposure to interpersonal communication with a frontline worker translated into practicing more of the ideal, promoted nutrition-related practices. Both methods suggested a similar total effect—ML: 0.58 (95% CI: 0.37, 0.78) and SEM: 0.60 (95% CI: 0.49, 0.72). ML models, however, attributed a much larger proportion of that total effect to indirect effects operating through awareness and knowledge (ML: 0.24; 95% CI: 0.15, 0.33; SEMs: 0.16; 95% CI: 0.09, 0.21).

Conclusions
Interpersonal communication improved nutrition-related practices, in part due to increasing one’s awareness and knowledge. The disparities in results between ML and SEMs suggested that the production of effects is a more complex, nonlinear or interactive function of awareness, knowledge, treatment and covariates than what is captured by simple linear models.

How do migrants fare in Africa’s urban labour markets?

Absent to care? The effect of parental migration on children's nutrition, health, and cognition in rural Gansu Province of China

Enhancing farmers’ access to neglected crop seeds for healthy diets in a changing climate: six recommendations for policy action

Food insecurity and poor diets undermine human health, livelihoods, and aspirations. Climate change further exacerbates the problem of achieving zero hunger. Promoting the production of a diverse portfolio of nutrient-dense, climate-resilient crops enables food supply for healthy diets in the coming years and decades. Many are underutilized even though they are considered opportunity crops, with an unrealized potential to improve food security and dietary quality amid climate change. Limited access to quality seed for these crops is a major bottleneck in their supply, as the current policy environment does not support farmers in broadening their portfolio with these crops. This paper identifies three key challenges that should be addressed to enable farmers to access quality seed of opportunity crops at scale. These are to make the diversity of opportunity crops (i) a priority for policy (ii) available for evaluation and breeding, and (iii) accessible to farmers, especially women and other disadvantaged groups. Six policy actions are recommended to address these challenges, which, if implemented, are likely to have both short- and long-term impacts in increasing farmers’ access to quality seeds of opportunity crops. Adopting these policy actions will help mainstream opportunity crops into seed systems as part of a broader strategy to diversify food systems from seed to plate.

Trends, determinants, and anthropometric consequences of low birthweight in Indian children: A prospective analysis of national data

Background
Low birthweight (LBW) is a major concern for child survival and growth, and India accounts for the highest number of such cases globally. Studies have examined determinants of birthweight and child growth but little evidence exists on how birthweight influences growth outcomes during early childhood. This paper examines associations between maternal, household, and health-related factors, LBW, and growth faltering, and explores childhood growth trajectories across birthweight groups.

Methods
Data from three waves of India’s National Family Health Survey were used to examine heaping-adjusted trends and predictors of LBW. Regression-based decomposition was used to quantify the way in which changes in predictors could reduce future LBW prevalence. Trajectories of childhood anthropometry by LBW status and determinants were examined by using smoothing and regression methods.

Results
The LBW prevalence between 2000 and 2020 was 20% (unadjusted) and 40% (heaping-adjusted). Improvements in maternal stature, weight, household wealth, and antenatal care coverage could yield the largest future reductions in LBW. Children born with LBW had 1.5 times higher odds of being underweight and 1.3 times higher odds of stunting. Maternal short stature, underweight, and poverty were associated with higher odds of subsequent anthropometric faltering regardless of LBW.

Conclusion
Findings show the dominant role of maternal nutrition in birthweight and childhood growth outcomes. Once a child is born with LBW, there is limited potential to prevent subsequent anthropometric failure. To break the intergenerational cycle of undernutrition, programs must prioritize improved nutrition for girls beginning early in life and sustained through adolescence and preconception.

The state of global food insecurity measurement: A mix of methods, and a mix of messages

Robust food insecurity indicators are needed for monitoring development targets, emergency responses, and rationally allocating foreign aid. For decades, global food security monitoring relied on the FAO’s prevalence of undernourishment, but this indicator’s fundamental limitations led the FAO to develop the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) and adopt the unaffordability of the healthy diet. In parallel, The World Bank monitors monetary poverty, arguably a food insecurity indicator in its own right. In this study we assess whether this larger suite of indicators agrees on: (a) which countries are most food insecure; and (b) whether global food insecurity is really deteriorating. Unfortunately, this new mix of methods produces mixed messages. Longstanding criticisms of the prevalence of undernourishment still apply, while rising undernourishment in the past decade is driven by modelled increases in calorie inequality that are inconsistent with income inequality trends. The FIES fares no better: severe FIES food insecurity is higher in several Latin American and Caribbean countries than in extremely food-insecure African countries such as Niger. The World Bank’s poverty and healthy diet affordability monitoring efforts are significantly constrained by systematically fewer household surveys in poorer and more crisis-affected countries. How can this situation be improved? First, experience-based indicators need to be more rigorously evaluated for cross-cultural comparability, and alternatives need to be considered. Second, international agencies and national governments should pool resources to implement coordinated, high-frequency, multi-purpose surveys – focusing on poor and crisis-affected countries – to jointly monitor food insecurity, poverty and malnutrition, as well as their root causes.

Beyond infrastructure: Linking multiple-use water services and experiences with household water insecurity in rural Mali

Over the last decade, the international development community has recognized that rural and peri-urban households in lower- and middle-income countries use the same sources of water for both domestic and productive uses. To increase access to these water resources, governments and NGOs introduced the concept of multiple-use water services (MUS). As a proposed development strategy, MUS takes people’s multiple water needs as the starting point for planning and investing in new water services or upgrading existing domestic or productive systems traditionally designed for single uses. While studies have suggested benefits of MUS, such as improved water productivity and economic gains for subsistence farming communities, evidence remains context dependent. The research community has yet to examine the specific influence of MUS on household water insecurity, defined as the inadequate, unreliable, or unaffordable access to water necessary for a healthy life. That is, does MUS reduce experiences with water insecurity at the household scale? To address this critical question, the study examined the correlation between household water insecurity, measured by the Household Water Insecurity Experiences (HWISE) scale, and household use of single water sources for both domestic and productive purposes using data from a survey of 1,082 households in Mali, West Africa. The study finds that households practicing year-round MUS report significantly lower water insecurity than seasonal MUS households. These findings indicate an association, rather than a causal relationship, between sustained MUS practice and lower household water insecurity and suggest that reliable, year-round water availability may underpin both. However, MUS is not a panacea for household water insecurity, and improving household water security will require attention to the reliability, availability, and seasonal stability of water services in addition to support for multiple water uses.

Rural labor supply and recall window sensitivity

Lack of availability of administrative records on informal and seasonal labor participation dictates reliance on self-reported measures in many rural settings in developing countries. A common survey approach relies on annual recall to capture labor activities. Using a panel of rural households in Malawi, this study conducts a survey experiment to test the effect of annual recall on reported labor supply relative to quarterly interviews using ninety-day recall windows. Annual recall reduces reported labor participation and months worked by 20 percent. These reductions are greater for activities further in the past and when labor supply is reported by proxy. The profile of households’ primary respondents, predominantly male and older, can induce meaningful biases against women and youth. The study additionally shows that recall window choice can significantly alter estimates of the relationship between labor supply and education. These findings are especially relevant for impact evaluations and studies with constrained sample sizes.

Power, policy, and practice: Political economy perspectives on agroecological transitions

A robust spectral-temporal index for cross-regional mapping of plastic-mulched farmland using decametric-resolution images

Food systems policy coherence: A ten-country assessment

Policy coherence is widely recognised as essential for achieving food systems transformation, but attempts to assess food systems policy coherence have been limited to date in terms of their scope of topics and geographies and lack of comparable methods. This paper introduces the Food Systems Policy Coherence (FSPC) Diagnostic Tool and uses it to analyse food systems policy coherence across 10 low- and middle-income countries in Africa and Asia through key informant interviews (n = 189) and review of policy documents (n = 808). The FSPC Diagnostic Tool considers two aspects of policy coherence: (1) the structures and mechanisms that may contribute to achieving stronger policy process coherence and (2) coherence between policies from six sectors and ten common food systems goals. Regarding the former, all countries analysed had strong framework documents for cross-sectoral food policy, backed by high-level political commitment, but they tended to be much weaker when it came to capacity for implementation and especially monitoring and accountability. Policy coherence across sectors was generally strong for the goals of climate change adaptation and social protection but weaker for goals of healthy diets for all, adequate wages for food system workers, and climate change mitigation through food systems. Trade policy was the policy area with the greatest incoherence with a diverse range of food systems goals. The results offer the most comprehensive analysis of food systems policy coherence to date. The tool makes a useful contribution to measuring policy coherence and can serve as both a foundation for future research and enhance accountability for achieving coherent policy outcomes.

Familiar strangers: The role of diaspora networks in foreign investment and long-run development

Responsible use of artificial intelligence and machine learning for food security early warning systems

Does adoption of organic vegetable farming really improve the welfare of vegetable farmers? Evidence from Ghana

Time to stop focusing on catch-up growth

In the late 19th century, Francis Galton observed that very tall parents tended to have tall children, but that the children were less tall than the parents themselves. Likewise, very short parents typically had short children, but they were not as short as their parents. He concluded that the height of children selected on the (extreme) height of their parents had moved closer to the population mean. Galton’s “regression toward mediocrity” is now referred to as regression to the mean (RTM).

Inflammation and micronutrient status of children and adolescents in 12 countries are only weakly associated: The BRINDA Project

Food systems performance evaluated against targets and benchmarks reveals urgent gaps and a path to 2050

Despite national and international commitments to food systems transformation and an increasing adoption of common indicators, no comprehensive targets have been established against which progress can be measured. Here, building on the Food Systems Countdown Initiative framework, we identify existing targets—based on internationally agreed commitments and normative goals—and establish benchmarks—based on empirically derived peer performance reference values at the global, regional and income group levels—for 44 Food Systems Countdown Initiative indicators. We also assess countries’ historical progress and the rate of change required to achieve targets and benchmarks over two different timescales. We show that current progress is insufficient to meet 2030 targets and benchmarks at global level. Comparing countries’ status to regional and income benchmarks, which are generally less ambitious, yields better performance across indicators and regions, although gaps remain. Achieving most targets and benchmarks by 2050 is possible if countries correct course and accelerate progress, but certain indicators will require considerable investment and intervention.

Adaptive policies balancing trade, productivity and cropland increases can support Zambia's nutrition security under future climate shocks

Policies in sub-Saharan Africa are constrained by a limited knowledge of climate change extremes and a focus on agricultural production rather than nutrition supply. Here we model the impacts of future extremes on national-level calorie and nutrient supply in Zambia for production and nutrition focused policy scenarios. We identify the specific cropland, yield and import increases required to achieve climate-resilient nutrition security and highlight policy options.

IFPRI’s insights on nutrition challenges and opportunities in Latin America and the Caribbean

Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) face a unique set of dietary and nutritional challenges. The region’s nutrition transition—population-wide shifts from traditional diets to more processed, unhealthier foods—began decades ago, well before countries in Africa and Asia that are now undergoing similar changes. Compounding that problem, healthy diets in LAC are currently the most expensive globally and are unaffordable for over a quarter of the region’s population.

Climate finance allocation and its impact on agricultural emissions in Asian countries

In the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sectors, Climate Finance has become a vital mechanism for boosting resilience and lowering emissions. With a main focus on finance and emission patterns, the study covers 38 Asian countries between the years 2002 and 2023. System Generalized Method of Moments econometric model is used to investigate the impact of agricultural climate finance on greenhouse gas emissions. The findings show that Asia receives more of adaptation fund than mitigation fund for agriculture sector, with the largest shares going to Southern and Central Asia. India ranks top among receiving climate finance from various international sources in terms of both overall and sector-specific allocations. Econometric model shows that climate funding has a significant delayed negative effect on emissions, with reductions of around 0.3 MtCo2e for every US$ 1 million invested. These findings highlight the need for consistent, multi-year investments, focused project designs and capacity building in order to achieve long-term emission reductions. Simultaneously, persistent allocation gaps need more robust regulatory frameworks to better allocate climate finance to agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector which will lead to increased ecological resilience and foster mitigation success throughout Asia.

Strengthening land tenure security and women’s land rights in Kenya: Policy analysis, implementation gaps, and gender-transformative pathways

In Kenya, the legal foundation for land governance was transformed by the country’s 2010 Constitution and reinforced by several subsequent laws that provide important entry points to strengthen women’s land rights. However, gaps in implementation remain significant; titles held by women represent less than 2 percent of all titled land, and women are less likely than men to own agricultural land and be named on title documentation. Evidence shows that women’s tenure security improves when legal recognition is matched with accessible implementation. The community land agenda is equally urgent; community land covers a major share of Kenya’s land area, especially in arid and semi-arid lands, yet the transition from former group ranches to registered community land has been slow. Investments should focus on five mutually reinforcing pathways: 1) strengthening sex-disaggregated land administration data, 2) supporting community land registration and inclusive bylaws, 3) combining legal literacy with paralegal support and alternative justice systems that meet constitutional standards, 4) promoting gender-transformative household and community approaches that shift norms around inheritance, joint titling, and decision-making, and 5) integrating women’s land rights into agricultural productivity, climate resilience, and market systems interventions.

Strengthening land tenure security and women’s land rights in Ethiopia: Policy analysis, implementation gaps, and gender-transformative pathways

Ethiopia’s land rights regime has evolved from an unequal imperial system, through nationalization, to a contemporary federal framework that recognizes secure, inheritable, registrable, and transferable land-use rights for women and men farmers and pastoralists. Ethiopia has undertaken one of Africa’s largest rural land certification reforms over the past three decades, beginning with provision of household certificates and progressing to geospatial mapping of parcels and a digital registry of landholdings. By 2024, an estimated 23 million certificates had been produced. While the certification reforms are a huge achievement, key challenges to transforming recognized rights into usable rights remain, especially for women, pastoral communities, and peri-urban households.  Progress towards gender equality in land rights is real, but uneven. Women are still less likely to have documented ownership compared to men, and they face constraints in controlling farmland, accessing credit, and benefitting from climate finance. Future policies and investments should focus on keeping rights current through registry maintenance, enforceable, gender-equitable, and adaptable to pastoral, peri-urban, and climate-vulnerable contexts.

Strengthening land tenure security and women’s land rights in Nigeria: Policy analysis, implementation gaps, and gender-transformative pathways

Nigeria’s land governance system has not delivered secure, affordable, and inclusive land documentation for most citizens, which is needed for agricultural productivity, food security, housing, climate resilience, peacebuilding, and women’s economic empowerment. Despite wide consensus on the need for land reform, the pluralistic system and the constitutionally entrenched Land Use Act have limited advances. Formal land registration remains limited in Nigeria, with more than 90% of land estimated to be unregistered. Customary, Islamic, and informal institutions continue to govern many land relations, but women and pastoralists frequently face weaker or inadequately documented rights. The lack of systematic gender- and conflict-sensitive recognition and tracking of land and resource rights at the national level contributes to the gender gap and to violent farmer–herder conflicts. A significant opportunity for reform has been opened by national attention to Land4Growth, state-level digitization, experience with systematic land titling and registration (SLTR), Supreme Court rulings on women’s inheritance, and growing evidence on gender-transformative land programming. A high-impact land reform program in Nigeria should invest not only in surveying, digitization, and title issuance, but also address the legal overlap of statutory and customary tenure, the gendered effects of inheritance and marital property norms, practical barriers that reduce women’s land rights, and the rights of pastoral communities.