IFPRI Datasets

Tajikistan Rural Household Survey (TRHS) 2025

The Tajikistan Rural Household Survey (TRHS) is a survey data collection effort led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Tajik Academy of Agricultural Sciences (TAAS). It is an ambitious attempt to generate data critical to filling pertinent evidence gaps on the livelihoods and the resilience of rural households in Tajikistan. The TRHS interviewed 3,267 households in the country's three most populated regions (Sughd Region, Khatlon Region, and Districts of Republic Subordination).

The in-person household survey includes a household-level questionnaire that was administered to any knowledgeable adult household member. An accompanying individual-level questionnaire was administered in private to one randomly selected household member, aged 18 to 54 years old. In households were no adult was present in the specified age range, another household member 55 years or older was allowed to respond to the individual-level questionnaire. The dataset also consists of a brief enumerator survey.

The effect of using indigenous and scientific forecasts on arable farmers’ crop yields: Evidence from Rwenzori region, western Uganda

Understanding social safety nets and intra-household food allocation: Experimental evidence from Bangladesh

Evidence shows that social protection can improve diets, but little is known about how impacts vary within households, the extent to which the modality of the transfer affects how it is distributed across all household members, whether adding training on the importance of nutrition and diets alters the way transfer resources are allocated within the household, relative to a transfer alone, and if differences in allocations are shaped by differences in livelihood opportunities. We use individual food intake data from two randomized control trials fielded in rural Bangladesh to address these questions. Our results overwhelmingly demonstrate that food gains are distributed equally, regardless of the type of transfers households received (cash, food, or combination), inclusion of nutrition training, regional context, or specific dietary outcome measured. These patterns of findings hold when we consider several extensions: (1) analyzing more aggregated demographic groups; (2) considering alternative measures of diet; (3) analyzing shares rather than levels; (4) considering impacts relative to deprivation at baseline; (5) analyzing impacts on non-food outcomes that can be assigned demographically; (6) re-estimating impacts using alternate samples and alternate estimation models. Where the few significant differences are found, they are often small in magnitude and in favor of children.

The effect of teacher training and community literacy programming on teacher and student outcomes

Motivated by extremely low levels of basic reading skills in sub-Saharan Africa, we experimentally evaluate two interventions designed to enhance students’ early-grade literacy performance in rural Mozambique: a relatively light-touch, scalable teacher training in early-grade literacy including the provision of pedagogical materials, and teacher training and materials in conjunction with community-level reading camps. Using data from 1,596 third graders in 160 rural public primary schools, we find no evidence that either intervention improved teachers’ pedagogical knowledge or practices or student or teacher attendance following two years of implementation. There are some weak positive effects on student reading as measured by a literacy assessment, primarily observed in a shift away from scores of zero, and these effects are consistent across arms. Our findings are aligned with the growing consensus that more intensive school- and/or community-based interventions are required to meaningfully improve learning.

How much do our neighbors really know? The limits of community-based targeting

Social assistance programs in developing countries often rely on local community members to identify potential beneficiaries. As community members may observe neighbors’ welfare, their reports may capture transitory shocks better than the proxies typically observable by a centralized policy implementer. To test this, we conduct a lab-style experiment in Central Java, in which participants rank other community members’ welfare, using benchmarks that vary in sensitivity to transitory shocks, and target small cash transfers. We find little evidence that community-held welfare information better reflects transitory shocks and find that targeting decisions mostly depend on perceived differences in overall wealth.

JEL Codes: O12, I32, D83

Agricultural technology adoption and deforestation: Evidence from a randomized control trial

We study the effect of the adoption of improved agricultural inputs on deforestation using a randomized control trial in Nigeria which introduced a more efficient and environmentally-friendly nitrogen fertilizer. We combine survey data from the intervention with earth observation data to develop a generalizable method for evaluating the effects of cluster-level interventions on landscape-level outcomes. We find evidence of an intensification response to treatment exposure that reflects significant heterogeneity across land cover. On land with relatively sparse pre-intervention tree cover, treatment exposure increased deforestation while in denser forest areas the intervention reduced deforestation. We find corresponding effects showing treatment exposure increases agricultural productivity. Our results reflect an intensification response to improved agricultural technology that redirects agricultural activity away from forests and towards existing cropland.

Estimating multidimensional development resilience

Existing measures of resilience are typically based on a single well-being indicator. This is problematic in contexts where households face deprivations across multiple dimensions. We develop a multidimensional resilience measure, integrating probabilistic moment-based resilience measurement approaches with multidimensional poverty measurement methods. Applying these to household panel data from Ethiopia, we show that univariate and multidimensional resilience measures based on expenditure-based poverty, dietary diversity, and livestock asset holdings can yield varied inferences on the ranking of households as well as potential impact of development interventions. Univariate resilience measures constructed using consumption expenditure, dietary diversity and livestock asset holdings show distinct temporal and spatial distributional patterns. But while univariate measures are weakly correlated with one another and with different well-being metrics, multivariate measures exhibit much stronger rank correlations. When we contrast univariate measures of resilience to multidimensional measures of resilience, we find that the latter vary less over the study period; multidimensional resilience measures seem to capture more “persistent or structural” vulnerability and associated capacity of households. We also demonstrate the differences in these univariate and multivariate measures, including the potential of the composite multidimensional resilience measures for supporting targeting processes.

Increasing women’s empowerment: Evaluating two interventions in Uganda

We conduct a randomized controlled trial to test a novel intervention for increasing women’s empowerment in Uganda. The intervention includes a within-household transfer of a productive asset, which has a lower cost than an external transfer. We find that transferring control of some of the household’s sugarcane to the wife significantly increases her access to resources and decision-making power. We also document increases in women’s empowerment arising from a cross-randomized couples’ workshop that improved women’s self-concept and shifted beliefs in gender equality. We find no additional impacts from combining the two interventions. Importantly, neither intervention harms the household’s productivity or husbands’ welfare. In fact, men (and women) report higher marital quality and life satisfaction as a result. However, despite increasing women’s empowerment we find no evidence that the interventions increased measured household investment in food security, child health, or education.

Transfers, information and management advice: Direct effects and complementarities in Malawi

We examine a program designed to alleviate credit, information, and farm management constraints among smallholder cash crop farmers through transfers and a cross-randomized program offering intensive agricultural extension. We document strong complementarities between the two sets of interventions. Investment driven by increased labor expenditures, production, and consumption are highest for farmers that received both transfers and intensive extension, a pattern that persists two and three years later. In the short run, transfers alone led to the reallocation of input expenditures into increased labor for cash crop cultivation, which led to increased production of project focal crops but not total crop production. While farmers in the transfers only group continue to spend more on labor in subsequent seasons, this does not lead to changes in production or consumption, suggesting that the support of the intensive extension was important for the generation of the largest welfare gains from the transfers.

Constraints and promising interventions to strengthen fish seed systems in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Ghana

CONTEXT
Aquaculture has surpassed capture fisheries in terms of production and is among the fastest growing food sectors. It has great potential to contribute to food security and nutrition, poverty reduction, jobs, and environmental sustainability. Fish seed is increasingly considered to be a major driver and disabler of aquaculture development. However, little is known about how fish seed systems operate, their challenges and opportunities, or entry points for strengthening them.
OBJECTIVE
This study analyzes primary data on the challenges and opportunities faced by various actors along the fish seed chain, documents the lessons from a fish seed project (Ghana Tilapia Seed Project, 2019–2022), and provides an analysis of entry points for strengthening fish seed systems.
METHODS
Using an analytical framework that tracks germplasm base, seed production and quality, seed availability and distribution, and the information flow along the fish seed value chain, we analyze the case of Ghana, the top producer of farmed tilapia in sub-Saharan Africa. The study uses a mixed-methods approach, including value chain analysis, action-oriented research methods, and statistical analysis of survey data.
RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
Findings indicate that the initial rapid growth in tilapia production in Ghana was partly due to an improved local strain released in 2004; however, the recent stagnation is largely caused by seed-related issues (poor maintenance and improvement of germplasm base, seed quality and availability, lack of information and coordination, and lack of enforcement of regulations). This study highlights the successes and lessons learned from the Ghana Tilapia Seed Project on broodstock distribution, training on fingerling production, establishment of nurseries, and training of fish farmers. The lessons highlight the need for policy changes and capacity building related to strain development and broodstock management.
SIGNIFICANCE
These findings fill the large gap in evidence on the functioning of fish seed systems and how to strengthen them. They can directly inform ongoing country-level efforts and programs aiming to develop aquaculture.

COVID-19 and rural livelihoods: Lessons from a longer-term assessment and the path to recovery

The COVID-19 pandemic had profound effects on livelihoods across rural populations worldwide. Building on earlier work that examined the initial effects of the pandemic on food security and nutrition among smallholder agricultural households in the Western Highlands of Guatemala, this study offers a longer-term assessment of the impacts and the path to recovery. We rely on a unique longitudinal survey of 1,262 households conducted over four rounds between 2019 and 2022, with the first round in person and the subsequent ones by phone. The results show substantial recoveries in food security and dietary diversity in the region by mid-2022 compared to 2020, but at levels still worse than pre-pandemic ones for some indicators. There is also a sustained increase in the intention to emigrate. The households that were initially more affected in terms of food security and nutrition but recovered faster include those located in one of the three studied departments and families living above the poverty line, while smallholders affected by hurricanes, non-coffee producers, and indigenous populations took longer to recover. We additionally provide quantitative estimates for a subsample of households interviewed in person during a fifth survey round at the end of 2022, showing an average decline of about 16 percent in total household income three years after the start of the pandemic, mainly driven by a decrease in agricultural income, combined with a 26-percent increase in expenditures and an important surge in indebtedness. Overall, the study offers valuable lessons regarding the recovery of vulnerable households following a major global crisis and in a context of additional shocks.

Gendered networks and demand for an agricultural technology in India

Studies on social learning and technology adoption often only consider the networks of a single individual in a household as a source of information influencing agricultural production decisions. We test the validity of this assumption by examining the role of men’s and women’s social networks in the adoption of a novel water-saving technology, laser land leveling (LLL), in India. Using network data from men and women in the same household, we test the influence of being connected to an adopter on demand for LLL. We identify the causal gender-specific network effects using a field experiment that combines an auction with a lottery for the technology, making the presence of adopters in networks exogenous. The data reveal that men’s and women’s networks vary in size and show little overlap. We find that whereas household demand for LLL increases when men are linked to an LLL-adopting household, it decreases when the network linkages run through women. These gender-differentiated effects are concentrated in households where the woman’s opinion about the technology is valued by the man and in non-poor households. The results highlight that social learning may interact with the socio-demographic characteristics of households in myriad ways to influence household technology adoption decisions, and that agricultural-based information interventions ought to also consider how information gets used in the household.

JEL classification: D13; Q12; Q16

Whole maize flour could enhance food and nutrition security in Malawi

Maize is the staple cereal in Malawi, with a daily per capita consumption of 383 g (dry matter basis), primarily consumed in the form of nsima, a thick porridge. We combined a milling experiment with focus group discussions (FGDs) to provide insights into mass and nutrient losses during maize grain dehulling and maize flour consumption patterns in rural Malawi. Milling batches (30 kg) of four maize grain varieties were dehulled at three abrasive disk dehullers under controlled conditions. The impact of maize variety and dehuller design on mass and nutrient losses during dehulling was statistically significant (p < 0.05), with a mean mass loss of 28.1 ± 5.7%, and nutrient losses of 9.8 ± 1.9% for protein, 61.7 ± 2.0% for zinc, and 47.7 ± 3.6% for iron. Six FGDs conducted in rural areas of Lilongwe District revealed a preference for refined flour due to convenience and cultural norms, despite the nutritional benefits of whole grain flour, which was recognized for its ability to provide satiety, particularly during periods of maize scarcity. Participants also highlighted switching between flour types based on seasonal maize availability, social stigma associated with whole grain flour, and awareness of nutrient losses during dehulling. Given Malawi’s precarious food insecurity situation, transitioning from dehulled maize flour nsima to whole maize flour or less refined nsima, is imperative. Our study findings can have food and nutritional savings for other southern Africa countries where the dehulling is a common practice.

Buyer-side gender discrimination in bargaining: Evidence from seed sales in Uganda

Haggling over prices is a common feature of economic transactions in many societies. This study examines whether the gender of the seller influences buyers’ negotiation strategies and outcomes in bilateral price bargaining. Using a bargaining experiment in eastern Uganda, we analyze interactions between smallholder maize farmers and either a male or female seed seller. Our findings reveal that buyers negotiating with female sellers are less likely to accept the initial offer price and respond with lower counter-bids compared to those bargaining with male sellers. Negotiations also last, on average, one round longer when the seller is a woman, and final transaction prices are nearly 9 percent lower. These results are particularly relevant for rural economies, where restrictive gender norms limit women’s financial autonomy. Given that small agribusinesses often provide one of the few viable income-generating opportunities for women, gender biases in market interactions can have substantial implications for economic empowerment and household welfare.

Does small-scale irrigation affect women’s time allocation? Insights from Ethiopia

Small-scale irrigation (SSI) interventions have received increasing attention as a potential pathway for women’s empowerment in sub-Saharan Africa. One key aspect of women’s empowerment that SSI can influence is women’s time burden. Hypothesized benefits of SSI for women are less energy exertion and reduced labor in agriculture. Yet, these hypotheses have not been tested empirically. We explore how household adoption of different SSI technologies affects the time allocation of women in the household, using two rounds of intrahousehold panel survey data from Ethiopia. Two different approaches are used to address potential endogeneity issues related to time-constant and time-varying factors that may be correlated with both SSI and time use: an instrumental variables-correlated random effects approach and a fractional multinomial logit-correlated random effects with control function approach. The results suggest that household use of SSI in general is associated with an increase in women’s leisure time. The results further suggest that household use of motor pumps is associated with an increase in women’s leisure time and reductions in the time they spend on farming and personal care. Given that women often provide the labor for irrigation using manual, labor-intensive methods, such as watering cans, buckets, or hand- or foot-powered treadle pumps, the results suggest that SSI using motorized methods has the potential to free up women’s time in farming and enable more leisure time. These findings have broad implications for women’s empowerment and labor allocation. Future research using new and more comprehensive data could explore the mechanisms for the findings in this study and determine if SSI enables women to improve their ability to allocate their time to activities they prefer.

Rice milling and parboiling trade-offs for economic and nutritional gains with special attention to sub-Saharan Africa: A comprehensive review

Rice is an important source of calories and nutrients for people in low- and middle-income countries. In the quest to respond to consumer preferences and attract premium prices, paddy processors increase the degree of milling (polishing), largely affecting nutritional composition and economic value of milled rice. Milling and parboiling are crucial unit processing operations affecting the quality profile of rice. The literature poorly reports on milling and parboiling operations that provide economic and nutritional gains or losses. Thus, there are no standard milling and parboiling regimes recommended to influence technological and policy changes in favor of public health and nutrition. In this comprehensive review, rice milling and parboiling operations associated with nutritional, economic, food safety and environmental benefits have been presented and discussed. Optimal milling and parboiling strategies that provide nutritional, economic, food safety and environmental gains are proposed as alternatives to conventional processing technologies and practices. Improved parboiling and moderate degree of milling in two-stage systems appear to provide better economic and nutritional benefits.

The characteristics of community seed schemes for grains and legumes: Insights from northern Nigeria

CONTEXT
Despite the significant roles that intermediary seed systems play in the supply of quality seed in developing countries, including Africa South of the Sahara, the knowledge gap remains generally substantial regarding the general characteristics and seed quality assurance performance of intermediary seed systems like community seed schemes (CSS), which still predominantly operate outside the formal seed systems.

OBJECTIVE
We aim to narrow the knowledge gap on seed production practices implemented by CSS and their economic characteristics, the extent of seed quality assurance achieved, and potential challenges CSS is facing.

METHODS
Using primary survey data of seed producers of key grains (maize, rice, and sorghum) and legumes (cowpea and soybean) from 380 CSS in Kano state in northern Nigeria, we qualitatively assess seed production characteristics, financial structures of their seed production, aspects of quality assurance measures they engage, and potential roles of external support like training on their implementation of these quality assurance measures.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
We discovered that many of the interviewed CSS have emerged endogenously, taking up seed production to address the challenges in access to quality seed in their locality. Their seed production has often grown into viable businesses that have provided potentially significant additions to their incomes. Oftentimes, these CSS implemented some seed quality assurance measures, including making closer visual checks of seed, checking germination rates, and bagging/packing seed, among others. However, fuller seed quality assurance may be significantly skill-intensive, and most CSS still do not implement many of the recommended measures under some of the intermediary quality assurance standards like quality declared seed. Our qualitative assessment suggests that future support for CSS can focus on technical support to raise the ability to engage in broader categories of quality assurance activities in financially viable ways and to improve the awareness and knowledge of different varieties and access to early generation seed.

SIGNIFICANCE
The quality assurance provided by existing community seed schemes in Nigeria may be relatively limited, particularly in terms of proper maintenance of seed production field and the quality of original varieties that they intend to multiply. Providing external support through training and technical assistance may be an effective way to transform community seed schemes into critical providers of seed quality assurance in intermediary seed systems and fill gaps in the formal seed system.

Integrating carbon sequestration and yield optimization in Indian cropping systems

Agriculture contributes significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but also holds strong potential for mitigation – particularly through soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration. This study evaluates the impact of integrated management practices—such as biochar application, optimized irrigation, and fertilizer management on yield improvement and SOC sequestration in semi-arid regions of Maharashtra, India. Using APSIM simulations across five districts and diverse cropping systems, it compares these practices with conventional farming. Results indicate that integrated practices consistently improve yields, SOC levels, and economic viability. For instance, maize yields under integrated practices increased by over 30 %, with substantial SOC gains. A cost-benefit analysis reveals high benefit-cost ratios, making these practices economically viable for smallholder farmers. This study highlights the transformative potential of integrated practices in addressing food security and environmental sustainability, especially in semi-arid regions. Policy recommendations include subsidizing biochar, promoting precision irrigation technologies, and integrating SOC sequestration strategies into national climate action plans. These findings provide actionable insights for scaling sustainable agricultural practices in resource-constrained settings.
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Using a list experiment to measure intimate partner violence: Cautionary evidence from Ethiopia

While indirect response methods are increasingly used in surveys to measure sensitive behaviours such as intimate partner violence, important questions persist around how respondents understand and react to these methods. This article presents evidence from a list experiment measuring multiple forms of intimate partner violence in rural Ethiopia. We find that the list experiment does not generate estimates of intimate partner violence that are higher than direct response questions; rather, prevalence estimates using the list experiment are lower vis-à-vis prevalence estimates using the direct reports, and are sometimes even negative. We provide suggestive evidence that this pattern may reflect ‘fleeing’ behaviour by respondents who do not wish to be associated with statements indicating their exposure to intimate partner violence.

Food acquisition, preparation, and consumption practices in South Asia: A scoping review of assessment tools

Assessing behaviors related to food choice at individual- and household-levels is essential for improving household diets, but assessment tools are limited. We conducted a scoping review to identify gaps in existing assessment tools for food acquisition, preparation, and household consumption practices in South Asia, where diets are rapidly changing. We undertook systematic keyword searches of three databases (PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science Core Collection) to identify studies assessing food acquisition, food preparation, and household consumption practices in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, published in English between 2000 and April 2025. Two reviewers independently screened titles, abstracts, and full texts, and extracted data on study characteristics and the assessment tools used to examine the food choice behaviors. Of 13,160 unique articles identified, 50 were included for synthesis. Food acquisition behaviors (e.g., what and how often food is purchased, changes in food purchases) were assessed by 26 studies, food preparation (e.g., cooking habits, intra-household distribution of responsibilities, preparation methods) by nine studies, and household consumption practices (e.g., timing, snacking, meal skipping, eating away from the home) by 30 studies. Most studies used quantitative methods (n=34), some used qualitative methods (n=13), and few used mixed methods (n=3). Likert scales and semi-structured interviews were the most used tools for quantitative and qualitative assessments, respectively. Across the 50 studies, 40 different tools were used to assess food-related behaviors and only 14 studies claimed using validated tools. Few studies included a full tool in text or in supplemental material (n=23). Currently, there is little alignment on how to assess food choice behaviors in South Asia, highlighting the need for a contextually adaptable repository of tools. Adapting and validating existing tools, rather than creating new ones, could improve efficiency, continuity, and comparability.

Food price stabilization: Theory and lessons from experience

Impact of conflict shocks on land rental market dynamics: Panel evidence from Nigeria

Access to land is crucial for transforming agri-food systems, promoting market integration, and reducing poverty in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where rural land markets are increasingly expanding. However, the escalation of violent conflicts presents serious obstacles to the effective functioning of these land rental markets and their contribution to development objectives. The study employs a household-level panel fixed effects regression model to analyze the impact of violent conflicts and institutional factors on land rental market dynamics, using georeferenced LSMS-ISA and ACLED data. Findings show that conflicts significantly reduce land rental sizes, especially for rural smallholder farmers. Additionally, the study found that institutional factors change how conflict affects land rental markets. The heterogeneous effects revealed that institutional factors reverse the impact of conflict on land rental sizes and values. Specifically, when smallholder women participate in agricultural decision-making in rural areas or when large-scale farming households have access to credit, the typically adverse effect of conflict on land markets transforms into a positive one. Thus, women’s participation in agricultural decision-making and access to formal credit play a crucial role in shaping households' ability to navigate land rental markets in conflict-affected areas. Policymakers can leverage this evidence to develop strategies that improve land access and stability in conflict-prone regions. By understanding household and market dynamics, policymakers can design more effective strategies to promote conflict-sensitive and sustainable agricultural systems and economic stability in Nigeria and other conflict-prone regions.

Unlock genotype-environment-management interaction via field phenotypic insights for multi-scale prediction of winter rapeseed flowering in the Yangtze River Basin

Crop yields are significantly impacted by adverse climatic events during flowering. Accurately predicting flowering periods is crucial for optimizing strategies to enhance crop yields. Previous studies used crop models to predict flowering periods, challenging due to limited sowing date data and generalizability across different cultivars and environment. In this study, plot experiments and high-throughput field phenotypes were coupled to determine the impact of genotype–environment–management interaction (G × E × M) on the flowering period of winter rapeseed in the Yangtze River Basin. The findings indicated that the pre-winter leaf area index adeptly indicated the impact of sowing dates on flowering period. The leaf color during winter distinguished the genotype effects, and the cumulative temperature between 50 and 60 days after the winter solstice (WS) was identified as the pivotal climate factor. The predictive indicators for the flowering period were referenced to the time point of the WS, alleviating the constraints of uncertain sowing dates. A combination of these indicators could be used to predict the flowering period in 24 winter rapeseed cultivars with an error of < 4 days at experimental plots across the Yangtze River Basin. Notably, the accuracy of flowering prediction model was validated on an actual farmland in Jingzhou City, aligning well with the observed flowering dynamics from satellite data. To extend the utility of the model to regional scales, distribution maps of the flowering period were generated using a linear regression model that correlated post-winter cumulative temperature with the flowering period, considering a 2.0 °C warming level by 2050 across the entire Yangtze River Basin. Results show higher temperatures or lower cumulative solar radiation during the flowering period will appear in many regions in the Yangtze River Basin. The findings of this study hold promise for aiding region-specific crop cultivation and breeding in the future.

Farmers agronomic management responses to extreme drought and rice yields in Bihar, India

In 2022, the Indian state of Bihar experienced its sixth driest year in over a century. To document the consequences and farmer responses to the meteorological drought, real-time survey data was collected across 11 districts of Bihar. We then developed a causal machine learning model to quantify drought impacts on rice production and to characterize how access to affordable irrigation from electric pumps mitigated productivity losses. This model addresses the empirical challenge of conducting a counterfactual causal analysis when a factor like drought affects nearly all sampled farmers. In the 2022 event, drought led to rice acreage reduction, transplanting delays, damage to seedling nurseries, and higher use rates of supplemental irrigation. For fields that were planted, average yield losses from water stress were estimated as 0.94 t/ha (∼23 % yield loss) with these losses reduced by 0.3 t/ha in fields with access to electric tubewells. Agronomic management practices such as earlier transplanting were also identified as complementary strategies that increased the adaptation value of investments in irrigation. To reduce the impact of drought in Bihar, additional investments in electric irrigation infrastructure are needed along with focused extension efforts and decision support systems that empower farmers to make economically and sustainably rational use of available water resources to maintain yield and profitability.

Healthy diets and the role of micro, small, and medium enterprises: Examining Ethiopia’s food environment

Micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) play an important role in the food environment in many low- and middle-income countries. But there is little systematic knowledge about the opportunities they have and constraints they face in trying to grow their businesses. To contribute to building this knowledge base, we draw upon linked household–enterprise surveys collected in two districts in Ethiopia in 2023. To learn about the constraints faced by these enterprises, we examine differences in organizational characteristics and business practices by outlet type, location, and manager gender and education among MSMEs that sell food. The results suggest that while there are clear availability constraints for specific types of foods, there are some strategies that could help MSMEs that retail healthy foods increase sales. If policymakers or others are interested in supporting sales through the food environment, interventions such as business training, service access, and capacity building on nutrition would best fit their needs.

Cash, food, and vouchers: An overview of the evidence

The choice of different modalities for transferring resources to extremely poor households—food provided in-kind, cash, or intermediate modalities such as vouchers—has long been the subject of active debate in both policy and research. This note provides an overview of the recent evidence around the relative effectiveness of cash and food aid, drawing on studies conducted over the last 20 years around the world.

Each modality has some potential advantages. Cash transfers are flexible in allowing recipients to use resources to meet a range of material needs (including, but not limited to food); and when they do choose to purchase food, allows them to choose a basket of items that is optimal based on their preferences. (The corresponding disadvantage of food transfers is that if recipients de sire nonfood items, they have to resell food for funds, often at a nontrivial transaction cost.) Cash transfers are often easier and lower-cost to deliver (particularly given the substantial growth of electronic payment systems) compared with the more complex logistical requirements of delivering food, especially perishable food. They are also generally less observable, potentially rendering them less likely to generate stigma or demands for sharing from nonrecipients. Cash can also have indirect beneficiaries through positive spillover effects in the local economy, though the evidence base for this is not large, and suggests that spillovers may be negative in some contexts.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: September 2025

In September 2025, Sudan’s markets showed relative stability despite conflict, inflation, and weather related disruptions. Cereal and vegetable prices remained broadly stable, while meat, oilseeds, and fuel saw moderate fluctuations. Availability of most essential goods improved slightly, though Darfur states continued to record the highest prices. The parallel exchange rate rose to about 3,100 SDG/USD, widening the gap with the official rate. Traders cited transport costs, heavy rains, and checkpoint fees as key drivers of higher prices, though logistical challenges eased from August. Liquidity and infrastructure conditions improved: 71 percent of merchants reported no cash short ages and 93 percent faced no storage or power issues. However, security risks persisted in Darfur and Kordofan, affecting trade safety. Profit margins remained mostly stable, while tax compliance declined, especially at the federal level. Despite ongoing challenges, merchants remain resilient—two-thirds plan to maintain current trade levels, and nearly one-fifth aim to expand, reflecting cautious optimism amid uncertainty.

Cash transfers and inflation: An overview of the evidence

Cash transfer programs are a leading form of social assistance, reaching up to 21 percent of the population in at least 68 low- and middle-income countries (World Bank 2025). Between 1980 and 2023, a total of 1.4 million papers were produced on the matter (Gentilini 2024) and more have been published since. While the design and impact of these and related programs have been closely studied (Banerjee et al. 2024), much less is known about whether or not cash transfer programs cause increases in the market price of good and services—that is, inflation. By reducing the purchasing power of money, program-driven inflation can diminish the positive impacts of cash transfers for recipients and create a negative spillover for nonrecipients, thus undermining program aims of improving social welfare. Recent literature on cash transfers and inflation is limited and often described as dichotomous: on one side, Egger et al. (2022) and other studies find little to no effect, while, on the other side, Filmer et al. (2023) find sizable and alarming inflationary effects on selected commodities. However, a closer look at these and other papers reveals that their results are less contradictory than they first appear. Rather, the whole body of the current literature is congruous with the hypothesis that cash transfers have minimal average effects on prices for most market goods; but these transfers can cause inflation where they significantly increase market demand for goods for which supply is relatively inelastic. This review proceeds as follows. We first present a simple conceptual model that illustrates the theoretical basis for this hypothesis, followed by an overview of the studies included in the review and their key differences. The next section presents a synthesis of the main findings in the existing empirical evidence. We then look at related research just outside the purview of this review. The conclusion discusses key takeaways.

Prospects of crop insurance for sustenance of farmers' livelihood during GM cotton crop failure in Indian Punjab

Despite the susceptibility of cotton crops to pest attacks in the Malwa Region of Indian Punjab, no crop insurance policy has been implemented there– not even the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY), which is a central scheme. Therefore, this paper attempts to gauge the likely impact of the PMFBY on Punjab cotton farmers and assess the changes needed for greater uptake and effectiveness of PMFBY.The authors have conducted a primary survey to conduct this study. Initially, the authors compared the costs of cotton production with the returns in two scenarios (with and without insurance). Additionally, the authors have applied a logistic regression framework to examine the determinants of the willingness of farmers to participate in the crop insurance market.The study finds that net returns of cotton crops are conventionally small and insufficient to cope with damages from crop failure. Yet, PMFBY will require some modifications in the premium rate and the level of indemnity for its greater uptake among Punjab cotton farmers. Additionally, using the logistic regression framework, the authors find that an increase in awareness about crop insurance and farmers' perceptions about their crop failure in the near future reduces the willingness of the farmers to participate in the crop insurance markets.The present study looks for the viability of PMFBY in Indian Punjab for the cotton crop, which can also be extended to other crops.Punjab could also use crop insurance to encourage diversification in agriculture. There is a need for special packages for diversified crops under any crop insurance policy. Crops susceptible to volatility due to climate-related factors should be identified and provided with a special insurance package.There exist very scant studies that have discussed the viability of a central crop insurance scheme in the agricultural-rich state of India, i.e. Punjab. Moreover, they do not also focus on crop losses accruing due to pest and insect attacks.

Malawi: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Malawi’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) processors, seed systems, and farmers credit are shown to be the most cost-effective at driving improvements in social outcomes, like poverty and undernourishment. They are also highly ranked in terms of expanding agrifood GDP and employment. Investments in extension and advisory services for livestock, SME traders, and seed subsidy also rank high. However, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, which highlights potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of in vestment options overtime and when extreme production shocks occur.

Taking stock: Impacts of 50 years of policy research at IFPRI

As the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) marks its 50th anniversary, the Institute and its key stakeholders pause to take stock of what is known about its policy influence and impact over the years. What does the available evidence tell us about IFPRI’s achievements as an international research institution? Have its activities contributed to better policy and investment decisions by governments, development agencies, nongovernmental organizations, the private sector, and others involved in the economic and social development of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)?

This report builds on a stocktaking paper published for IFPRI’s 40th anniversary, whose findings were generally favorable, by using more recent external sources of evidence to provide updated answers to these questions. It synthesizes bibliometric and download data, as well as a series of independently conducted impact assessment studies of many of IFPRI’s research programs and projects. This task has been facilitated by the availability of 40 such evaluations, commissioned by IFPRI, the CGIAR Research Programs on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health and on Policies, Institutions, and Markets, or project donors. Additionally, other agencies commissioned several evaluations of specific country and regional policies that IFPRI helped influence. This wealth of independent assessments is rare for a policy research institution. Moreover, IFPRI’s commissioning or co-commissioning of 36 impact assessments over 25 years demonstrates a serious commitment to an impact evaluation culture and a willingness to learn from its experiences.

Presentations for The EU Deforestation Regulation: Policy Implications and Research Frontiers

In June 2023, the European Union (EU) adopted its Regulation on Deforestation-Free Products (EUDR)—a landmark policy designed to reduce global deforestation and forest degradation driven by EU consumption. Under the regulation, key commodities with the biggest impacts on deforestation—soy, cattle, palm oil, cocoa, coffee, wood, and natural rubber—cannot be placed on the EU market or exported unless they are free of deforestation and legally produced.

Investing in innovative food systems solutions in challenging contexts

Humanitarian agencies are in a race against time to save lives in contexts where economies have collapsed as hunger is aggravated by conflicts and extreme weather, among other factors. Take Nigeria, for example. Across the country lives and livelihoods are being shattered by conflict and climate shocks – once a breadbasket, the northern regions now rely heavily on humanitarian food assistance. The numbers speak for themselves: 30.6 million people are food insecure – 10 million people in three northern states; 17 million children are malnourished – the highest number in Africa, second highest globally after India. Farmers are cut off from their fields. Traders struggle to move goods through dangerous or impassable roads. Millions are displaced. And yet amid this fragility pockets of resilience are emerging in areas where conflict has subsided such that some farmers can return to their farms.

The EAT–Lancet Commission on healthy, sustainable, and just food systems

A good global investment for Canada: How investing in CGIAR reduces global poverty and benefits Canadian citizens

This note documents how CGIAR investments have delivered substantial economic, benefits for Canada while reducing global poverty and food insecurity. By driving agricultural innovation and providing evidence-based insights, CGIAR has boosted Canadian farm productivity, expanded export markets, and made food more affordable for Canadian consumers. It has also helped prevent billions of dollars in potential damage from pests and diseases that threaten Canadian farm livelihoods. CGIAR investments are likely to continue benefiting Canadian farmers in the future as the CGIAR continues to provide a large share of genetic materials for plant breeding. These genetic materials will be essential to the discovery and development of new traits that increase yields and benefit Canadian farmers in the future. CGIAR research will continue to support the work of Canadian partner institutions and promote demand for Canadian exports by fostering economic growth in low- and middle- income countries.

IFPRI Malawi Monthly Maize Market Report, September 2025

Highlights
Retail prices of maize were relatively stable in September.
National price stability concealed significant market-level variations in maize prices.
Imports continued dominating cross-border trade in maize.

Graduating from Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme: What have we learned?

Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) – one of the largest social protection programs in Africa – has improved food security and strengthened recovery from shocks, yet it has achieved limited progress in raising incomes or diversifying livelihoods. In response, policymakers have layered graduation models onto the PSNP to promote sustainable self-reliance. This note synthesizes evaluation evidence from NGO- and government-led initiatives. NGO-led intensive, high-cost models increased assets and incomes in the short to medium term but rarely enabled households to exit the program. NGO-led lighter-touch approaches improved resilience but delivered minimal gains in overall well-being. Government-led efforts have faced persistent delivery challenges, including overstretched systems, weak credit access, and limited market linkages. Broader structural constraints, such as shrinking landholdings, scarce nonfarm opportunities, and recurrent drought and other shocks, further undermine the promise of graduation programming in this context. The review highlights six policy lessons on design, financing, and integration with broader development strategies to shape more effective approaches going forward.

Measuring employment and job quality in agrifood systems: Accounting for backward and forward linkages

As the agricultural transformation associated with economic development proceeds, the economic fulcrum of the agrifood system moves from primary production to nonfarm activities, such as input supply, food processing, food services, and wholesale and retail trade. Traditional measures of farm employment and value added (or GDP) represent a shrinking share of the agrifood system’s total contribution. Better quantification is important not only to appreciate the role of agrifood system transformation in broader economic development, but also to inform policies that create more and better-quality jobs and accelerate structural transformation in developing economies.

This study considers two broad approaches to measuring the agrifood sector: (1) measuring agrifood activities, and (2) exploiting the economy’s full input–output structure to measure the direct and indirect resources needed to meet final demands for agrifood products and to transform agrifood output into nonfood products such as biofuels and clothing. We apply both approaches using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database and comparing their results. We then use the input–output approach to estimate the employment generated by the agrifood sector, including employment in backward and forward linkages. The findings suggest that the input–output approach provides a more comprehensive assessment, with the agrifood sector generating 15.2 percent (near one-sixth) of global GDP and one-third of global employment. The findings further show that the off-farm segments of the agrifood system provide better-quality jobs than the farm segments, particularly for women. These findings provide insights on the potential for improving welfare and reducing poverty and inequality through agrifood system transformation.

Investing in innovative food systems solutions in challenging contexts: A food supply chain mapping and analysis

Humanitarian agencies are in a race against time to save lives in contexts where economies have collapsed as hunger is aggravated by conflicts and extreme weather, among other factors. Take Nigeria, for example. Across the country lives and livelihoods are being shattered by conflict and climate shocks – once a breadbasket, the northern regions now rely heavily on humanitarian food assistance. The numbers speak for themselves: 30.6 million people are food insecure – 10 million people in three northern states; 17 million children are malnourished – the highest number in Africa, second highest globally after India. Farmers are cut off from their fields. Traders struggle to move goods through dangerous or impassable roads. Millions are displaced. And yet amid this fragility pockets of resilience are emerging in areas where conflict has subsided such that some farmers can return to their farms.

Senegal assessment [of the PEDAL project]

For nearly three decades, Senegal has been recognized as a regional leader in advancing nutrition, reducing under-five stunting from 34 percent in 1992 to 19 percent in 2014 (Kampman et al. 2017), and further to 15.1 percent by 2023 (ANSD and ICF 2024). This progress has been underpinned by a multi-sectoral and decentralized approach, with local governments playing an increasingly central role in policy implementation. Large-scale food fortification (LSFF) has been a cornerstone of this agenda, with Senegal—alongside Nigeria—pioneering fortification standards in the 2000s for edible oil, wheat flour, and salt, and subsequently institutionalizing the approach through the 2006 Strategic Plan for the Fortification of Foods and two successive national fortification strategies, the most recent of which was launched in May 2025. Yet despite these achievements, Senegal now faces mounting fiscal pressures, shifting donor priori-ties, and persistent micronutrient challenges, all of which threaten to slow or reverse momentum around LSFF.

Are poor people conditionally cooperative? Contrasting evidence from a field-adapted contributions game

We study conditional cooperation in a real-world, low-income setting by adapting a conditional contributions game for Mozambique, eliciting willingness to contribute to a new public program conditional on how many others contribute. While past studies suggest most people are conditional cooperators (contributing more as others do), 57%of our sample are undefined by standard classifications. Instead, our sample’s most common types are largely absent from the literature: counter conditional cooperators, who contribute less as others do, and v-shaped cooperators, both for monetary donations (30% and 19%) and volunteering (35% and 12%). Our findings motivate future research in previously unexplored contexts.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: August 2025

This report presents an overview of trends in prices, availability, and quality of key commodities, while also capturing traders’ perceptions of supply, demand, and market conditions in Sudan between February and August 2025.

Looks matter? Field performance and farmers' preferences for drought-tolerant maize in Kenya

Context
To help farmers adapt to climate change, breeding programs have developed drought-tolerant (DT) maize varieties, but varietal turnover among smallholder farmers is slow. One possible reason for low adoption is that DT varieties produce higher yields than older hybrid maize varieties but are not visibly more drought tolerant, especially if morphology is a factor in farmers' varietal choice.

Objectives
Motivated by this conjecture, our first objective is to compare the drought tolerance of a new hybrid DT maize variety and older varieties under farmer-managed conditions in terms of both morphology and yields. Our second objective is to analyze whether increasing farmers' exposure to this variety increases their awareness of its DT traits and subsequent adoption.

Methods
We leverage a project that provided seed trial packs of a new DT maize variety to randomly selected farmers in seven counties in Kenya with varying rainfall conditions. Picture-based crop monitoring across two seasons yielded a novel panel dataset of 18,225 smartphone images labeled for drought damage, and, for a subsample of fields, yields. We use this dataset to compare the performance of promoted and commonly grown varieties. We then use exogenous variation in receiving trial packs to analyze how providing trial packs affects varietal preferences and adoption.

Results and conclusion
The promoted variety produces higher yields than other varieties. Under good conditions, it also appears visibly less damaged during the flowering stage, but morphological differences disappear under more severe moisture stress, and once the crop reaches maturity. Consistent with these observations, treatment farmers do not perceive this variety to be more drought tolerant than other varieties and are more likely to plant the promoted variety only when receiving a free trial pack.

Significance
It could be that limited visibility of DT traits hinders sustained adoption. Increasing adoption of DT varieties to enhance climate change adaptation in drought-prone regions may require facilitating prolonged learning and experimentation opportunities, increasing awareness of how DT traits manifest themselves in terms of yields and morphology under varying rainfall conditions, and, costs permitting, selecting for visible DT traits in plant breeding.

Policy and regulation in seed sector development for vegetatively propagated crops: Insights from Kenya, Nigeria, and Vietnam

Context
In many low- and middle-income countries, smallholder farmers cultivating vegetatively propagated crops (VPCs) have limited access to quality planting material. This constraint can limit both the yield and returns to VPC cultivation. Yet policy and regulations designed to strengthen access to quality VPC planting materials and scale innovative programs that deliver these materials have been relatively unsuccessful to date. Part of the problem lies the unique biological and economic characteristics of vegetative propagation and its distinctness from cereal crops that dominate narratives on seed sector reforms and the resulting policy and regulatory regimes.
Objective
The study analyzes both theory and evidence on existing and alternative models of regulation that may incentivize cost-effective multiplication and distribution in VPC seed systems and markets.
Methods
The study draws on case studies of policy and practice related to quality assurance regulations in four crop-country combinations: cassava in Nigeria and Vietnam, and potato in Kenya and Vietnam. The case studies rely on qualitative analysis that was conducted using a combination of key informant interviews, focus group discussions, analysis of regulatory documents, and analysis of publicly available secondary data.
Results and conclusions
The study describes five strategies for regulating VPC seed systems in our four crop-country combinations, each with its own generalizable costs and benefits. The application (or marginalization) of these strategies is often shaped by fluid coalitions of actors with competing interests and framing narratives, and driven by organizational innovations, technological opportunities, trade relationships, and crises that are crop- and country-specific.
Significance
These findings suggest that regulations designed around strict, centralized quality control systems tend to limit market size, while more localized production systems are limited by both capacity and reach. They also suggest the need for alternatives that balance a permissive regulatory regime with decentralized production systems, grassroots capacity development, market surveillance, and systems that integrate multiple approaches to quality assurance. A detailed set of policy recommendations follows from these findings that inform ongoing country efforts to revise VPC seed sector policies and regulations—reforms that are being pursued not only in the crop-country case studies highlighted here, but also in other countries in both Africa and Asia.

Zinc distribution in structural components of high kernel‑zinc maize and its retention after milling

High kernel‑zinc maize (HKZM) has the potential to contribute to addressing zinc deficiency in regions with high maize consumption, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, milling HKZM may lead to loss of zinc when removing the pericarp and embryo. This study evaluated the zinc distribution in kernel components of HKZM maize grown in different environments, and examined how milling affected its zinc concentration. The zinc concentration in HKZM lines was 27.0–30.7 μg g−1 while in conventional maize it was 19.5–22.6 μg g−1. Zinc in maize endosperm represented 20.5 to 28.2 % of the total kernel zinc while that in the embryo represented 68.1 to 75.7 %. HKZM retained 43 % of its kernel zinc after milling, resulting in flour with 5 μg g−1 higher zinc concentration compared to regular maize flour. Environmental factors had a significant effect on kernel zinc concentrations. Maize grain from commercial mills had 21 μg g−1 zinc, with zinc losses of 22 % to 65 % during milling, resulting in flours with 6–10 μg g−1 of zinc. While HKZM shows promise in alleviating zinc deficiency, its anticipated impact may be limited in regions where refined maize is frequently used for making foods. The development of maize varieties with higher zinc concentration in the endosperm, along with promoting increased consumption of less refined maize products can boost zinc intake for deficient populations.

Effect of adding milk to a micronutrient fortified high-energy biscuit school feeding programme in Yemen: A cluster-randomised controlled trial

Background
Two billion children globally are estimated to live in conflict-affected areas. School feeding programmes (SFPs) are a widely implemented safety net that supports children during and after conflict.

Objective
We evaluated the effectiveness of providing milk alongside a high energy biscuits (HEBs) SFP in Yemen on children’s and caregivers’ outcomes.

Methods
We implemented a two-arm longitudinal cluster-randomised controlled trial from December 2023 to May 2024. 42 schools in Al Mukha district were randomly assigned (1:1) to: control, where children received HEBs (2 packets (100 grams) daily), or milk, where children received HEBs plus a 120 ml carton of ultra-high temperature milk. Children aged 6-18 years were randomly selected for enrolment. The primary outcomes were children’s dietary diversity and milk consumption. Secondary outcomes were children’s cognition, learning, attendance, nutritional status, and health. Tertiary outcomes were child and caregiver mental health, and household food security. We conducted intent-to-treat analysis using linear mixed effects models accounting for clustering.

Results
1,299 children were enrolled. After five months, the intervention increased milk consumption, but had no effect on dietary diversity. Children’s cognition [mean difference (MD) 1.00 (95% CI 0.40, 1.61)], literacy [1.14 (0.36, 1.92)], and numeracy [1.06 (0.46, 1.67)] scores improved. Cough symptoms declined: -0.12 (-0.2, -0.03). There were no changes in school attendance or nutritional status. The intervention reduced conduct problems in children [-0.52 (-0.97, -0.08)], severe anxiety in caregivers [-0.03 (-0.06, -0.001)], and household severe food insecurity [-0.09 (-0.17, -0.001)].

Conclusions
Adding a daily milk drink to an HEB SFP in Yemen resulted in numerous benefits for children and their families. Hybrid models to incrementally improve meal quality are feasible, acceptable, and lead to meaningful impacts. More research is needed on medium- and long-term benefits.

Preventing relapse from wasting: the role of sociodemographic, child feeding, and health care determinants and of wasting prevention interventions in Burkina Faso and Mali

Background
Relapse among children treated for wasting is a major concern. We estimated the frequency and determinants of relapse to wasting in two populations exposed to PROMIS, an integrated wasting prevention and screening program.
Methods
Using longitudinal data from PROMIS trials in Burkina Faso and Mali, we calculated the incidence rate and period prevalence of relapse to wasting within 6 months in children who had ≥1 wasting episode ending when they were ≥6 months old for which they were treated and recovered (NBurkina Faso=247; NMali=220). We used backward elimination to select a multivariable model of sociodemographic, nutrition- and health-related determinants of relapse. We also evaluated if prevention interventions (behavior change communication (BCC) and/or small quantity lipid-based nutrient supplements (SQ-LNS) were associated with relapse, adjusting for confounders and trial arm.
Results
Relapse incidence was 2.6 per child-year in Burkina Faso (N=291 episodes) and 1.6 per child-year in Mali (N=300 episodes). In both countries, being fed the recommended food frequency or iron-rich foods after recovering from wasting was associated with lower risk of relapse. In Mali, longer wasting episodes, lack of minimally diverse diet consumption, and several caregiver/household characteristics were associated with lower risk of relapse. In both countries, receipt of BCC after recovery from wasting was associated with lower risk of relapse (Incidence rate ratio [IRR]Burkina Faso = 0.51 [95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.30, 0.86]; IRRMali = 0.26 [95% CI = 0.11, 0.65]), as was receipt of SQ-LNS (IRRBurkina Faso = 0.33 [95% CI = 0.16, 0.70]; (IRRMali = 0.43 [95% CI = 0.19, 0.94]), after adjustments.
Conclusion
Children being discharged from wasting treatment are a well-defined vulnerable population who stand to benefit from targeted post-discharge preventive interventions. BCC that includes advice on optimal infant and young child feeding practices and SQ-LNS may help prevent wasting relapse in at-risk children.

Beyond the bids: Lessons from farmers' reflections on Vickrey auctions of sweetpotato vines in Rwanda

Context
The use of high-quality seed can significantly enhance nutrition, food security, poverty alleviation, and climate change adaptation in rural farming communities. Economic valuation methods can be used to assess farmers' demand for such seed. However, the reproductive biology of seed and the social and economic institutions surrounding their production and exchange vary widely across crops and regions.

Objective
It is important to understand how such contextual factors relate to the assumptions that underly economic valuation methods. In this paper, we qualitatively evaluated an experimental Vickery auction conducted in Rwanda which aimed to identify farmers demand for disease-free vines of orange-fleshed sweet potato rich in Vitamin A.

Method
Data were gathered through observations of and in-depth interviews with participating farmers, focusing on their experiences, strategies, and motivations during the auction. We examined farmers' reflections on the experimental auctions—rather than the auction results themselves—to understand context-specificity and methodological replicability.

Results and conclusion
Our findings reveal that farmers assigned value to the vines in diverse ways, shaped by personal experience, social norms, and local exchange practices—often diverging from the assumptions of auction theory. These dynamics raise concerns about the validity and reliability of the auction outcomes.

Significance
Although auctions are an increasingly popular tool to evaluate the value of seeds and traits in smallholder farming systems, and although considerable effort has been put into examining mechanisms leading to product overestimation and underestimation in auction settings, this study offers a novel qualitative perspective that uncovers several reasons that explain deviations in the context of an experimental Vickrey auction for sweetpotato vines in rural Rwanda. Our findings highlight the challenges of using auction-based methods in capturing demand when used to value goods that are reproductive, socially embedded, and exchanged outside formal markets.

Cities and agricultural development

In recent decades, rapid urbanization in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) has significantly affected agrifood systems and agricultural development. Innovations in transportation, storage, and value chains, as well as the expansion of nonfarm sectors, have transformed rural communities and reshaped agricultural production patterns. This review revisits the evolving link between cities and agriculture in LMICs, drawing on key theoretical frameworks and recent empirical findings. Three major pathways determining the interaction between urban centers and agricultural development emerge. First, transportation costs and access to urban markets continue to influence agricultural decision-making. Second, changing consumer preferences following urbanization and growing integration into global agrifood value chains drive lasting changes in local farming systems. Third, the expansion of urban nonfarm labor markets is shifting labor away from farms, with uncertain consequences for agricultural development. As a result, the empirical evidence is often context specific.

JEL codes: J61, O18, Q12, Q15, R11, R14

Impact of armed conflict on crop production in greater Khartoum, Sudan

Since April 2023, Sudan has been engulfed in a violent conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, resulting in widespread displacement, destruction of infrastructure, and the collapse of essential services. As with agricultural production in rural communities across Sudan, urban and peri-urban farming systems in Greater Khartoum, the area around the capital city, have also been harmed by the conflict.

An integrated assessment of the impact of conflict on crop production in Greater Khartoum was conducted using recent satellite imagery from 2024/25 winter season (October 2024 to March 2025), along with household-level data from the 2024 IFPRI Smallholder Farmers Survey covering the 2023/24 winter season (October 2023 to March 2024). Key findings from the assessment include:
Decline in cropping activities: Analysis of satellite imagery showed clear evidence of a decline in cropping activities between December 2022 and December 2024. Land use analysis showed a 22 percent reduction in total cultivated area over this period. Notably, land under center-pivot irrigation declined by 87 percent. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) analysis showed a 36 percent decline in vegetated land, indicating both reduced cultivation and plant cover.
Widespread disruption to farming: Thirty-six percent of the farmers surveyed in Khartoum state reported not cultivating any crops in the 2023/24 winter season primarily because of conflict-related challenges that they could not overcome. Of those that did farm, over three-quarters reported that the conflict had disrupted their agricultural activities.

Shifts in crop selection and agricultural input use: Vegetables and fruits are now the most commonly grown crops, followed by fodder and beans. Less than one-quarter of farmers now use improved seeds, largely due to conflict-related input shortages. However, despite the conflict, access to fertilizer markets has been maintained— 87 percent of farmers reported that they continue to use fertilizer.
Localized resilience: Some areas of Greater Khartoum, particularly Karari locality, have maintained relatively high levels of cultivation, reflecting localized resilience and reasonable safety and access to agricultural landholdings.

By combining spatial and socioeconomic data, the study highlights the complex and multidimensional nature of agricultural disruption in conflict-affected areas, like Greater Khartoum. Several policy responses and other actions needed for recovery and to strengthen the resilience of affected farmers are suggested by the study findings:
Promote resilient and inclusive farming systems and agricultural value chains.
Restore agricultural infrastructure and input supply chains.
Improve farmer mobility and market access.
Provide emergency assistance and recovery packages to farmers.
Strengthen agricultural monitoring systems.

From promises to action: Analyzing global commitments to tackle hunger and food insecurity

High-level declarations and commitment statements are a common output of global, intergovernmental meetings and critical to their continued public legitimacy. Yet, to what extent have such statements served as roadmaps for concrete action? To address this question, this paper focuses on commitments to Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2, which aims to end hunger, achieve food security, and promote sustainable agriculture by 2030. Using a structured framework with seven domains, we analyzed 148 intergovernmental commitment documents emerging from 78 global meetings focused on SDG2 and organized by ten different global bodies between 2015 and 2023.

We find that stated visions to address SDG2 increasingly have been emphasized at global meetings over time but that specific actions to accelerate progress towards SDG2 were weaker. For instance, we find few examples of how needed actions will be scaled up over time, how financing might be mobilized, and how to strengthen horizontal (i.e. multi-sectoral) and vertical (i.e. multi-level) policy coherence. Progress reports are often identified as the main tool for providing public accountability, but there rarely are any consequences to governments for failure to uphold their commitments. We offer several policy recommendations emanating from the analysis, including the need to institutionalize monitoring of SDG2 commitments—not just targets—in the next five years, and a better understanding of political economy factors that may inhibit global decisions from translating into national policy decisions.

The unintended consequences of social transfer programs: Effects on conflict, governance, and social cohesion

While the role of social transfers in reducing poverty and encouraging welfare-enhancing behaviors is well-established, emerging evidence shows that they also significantly impact both political and social attitudes and behaviors. This article undertakes a systematic review of the quantitative evidence on these typically unintended impacts, highlighting a broad set of outcomes related to both citizen–citizen (horizontal) and state–citizen (vertical) relationships. We identify mixed findings. Although social transfers have been shown to enhance political engagement, institutional trust, and social cohesion, other studies suggest they may undermine these outcomes. We highlight key factors that may explain these varied findings, highlighting both characteristics of the recipients as well as features of the governance and the programs themselves.

Gender-just mitigation in the agrifood systems sector: Potential and pitfalls

Mitigation action in agrifood systems is essential for addressing growing negative impacts from climate change. It remains unclear, however, to what extent mitigation in the agrifood systems space addresses gender inequalities and involves women as agents of climate action. This article reviews the literature to identify the main linkages between gender and mitigation in agrifood systems, examines the key barriers preventing women from equitably participating in and benefiting from mitigation actions in agrifood systems, and concludes with best practices to mainstream gender in mitigation actions in a substantive and sustainable way. Promising approaches include strengthening women's land rights; supporting women's economic empowerment through access to finance, information, and opportunities; and supporting women's groups.

JEL codes: Q10, Q18, Q20, Q24, Q54

Confidence and information usage: Evidence from soil testing in India

Informational barriers are often considered to be a major constraint to the adoption of improved farming practices, inputs, and technologies by smallholder farmers. In the Indian context, it is widely believed that farmers misapply chemical fertilizers because they lack scientific information on soil conditions and corresponding fertilizer recommendations, thus resulting in imbalanced and potentially detrimental fertilizer application. Policymakers are frequently interested in providing farmers with various streams of information to overcome these informational barriers to optimize farming activities. However, such informational interventions frequently fail either because generic recommendations may be ill-suited for decision makers in highly heterogeneous agricultural environments or because farmers' beliefs may be so entrenched as to make them unresponsive to new information. We implemented a field experiment in Bihar, India to test whether plot-specific fertilizer recommendations affect farmers' fertilizer use. We find little evidence for sizable impacts on fertilizer use in general, though impacts are more apparent for low cost or costless recommendations such as increasing the use of highly subsidized fertilizers or shifting the timing of application. Despite modest evidence of such effects, even those fall short of their potential magnitude. We show that treated farmers who are less confident in their subjective beliefs about optimal fertilizer application rates (i.e., with more disperse priors) are more responsive to the recommendations and have a higher ex ante willingness to pay for soil testing. These results suggest that heterogeneity in beliefs may constrain the overall effectiveness of information provision, even when the information is tailored to individual farms.

JEL Classification: D83, O13

Economy-wide implications of increasing school enrolment in Sub-Saharan Africa

The high number of out-of-school youth in developing countries constitutes a pressing challenge with profound implications for attaining sustainable development. Sudan, for example, has the fifth-highest number globally while struggling with sluggish economic growth and high youth unemployment. In this study, we assess the potential economy-wide implications of options to enhance enrolment among youth by lowering private household spending on education and training services, taking Sudan as a case study. Cost reduction is considered for: a) primary education, b) secondary education, c) primary and secondary education, and d) all formal educational cycles and vocational training. We developed a recursive-dynamic single-country Computable General Equilibrium (STAGE-Edu) model that captures vocational training, secondary education by type (vocational and non-vocational), and education and training choices at different levels, with broad coverage of existing bridges between education and training. STAGE-Edu also establishes endogenous and consistent linkages between the educational and training system and the skill levels of the labour force through six-stage nested production functions. The findings suggest that cost reduction in primary education significantly reduces the number of out-of-school children and enhances long-term economic growth. However, it increases dropouts from post-primary education and vocational training. In contrast, cost reduction for both primary and secondary education improves enrolment in the tertiary education cycle and promotes the overall skill composition. Funding such cost reductions from foreign development aid and grants yields higher economic benefits than increasing domestic taxes.

JEL Classification: C68; H52; I25; O55

The role of access to expressways on industrial clustering development in China

JEL codes: D80; L60; O10

Simulated impact of vitamin A-fortified sugar on dietary adequacy and association of usual sugar intake with plasma and breast milk retinol among lactating Zambian women

In Zambia, mandatory sugar fortification with vitamin A (VA) has been implemented, but its impact on VA inadequacy and status has yet to be assessed. This study evaluated the contribution of VA-fortified sugar to dietary VA adequacy and the relationship between dietary intakes and VA status in 243 lactating women, based on 24-h dietary recalls in Mkushi, Zambia. We estimated usual intake distributions and the prevalence of VA adequacy using the National Cancer Institute (NCI) method across five scenarios: without sugar fortification; with fortification at 3.1 or 8.8 mg/kg (median levels previously measured in Mkushi); at 10 mg/kg (the minimum legal requirement at the household level), and at 15 mg/kg (the minimum legal requirement at the factory level). We applied the regression calibration method to examine associations of usual intake of sugar and dietary VA with plasma and breast milk retinol concentrations. Without fortified sugar, the estimated prevalence of dietary VA inadequacy was 83% (standard error [SE]: 6). Projected reductions in VA inadequacy were 7 (SE: 6), 24 (SE: 14), 30 (SE: 15) and 47 (SE: 18) percentage points for sugar fortification at 3.1, 8.8, 10 and 15 mg/kg, respectively. Usual sugar intake was not significantly associated with plasma or breast milk retinol concentrations. The potential impacts of sugar fortification on VA intakes are limited if the programme is not implemented as planned. Even if the target fortification levels are achieved (10 mg/kg), sugar fortification alone is unlikely to eliminate dietary VA

Heavy on plans, light on delivery: The structural failures of Ethiopia's nutrition policies

Ethiopia's development ambitions rest on the foundation of a healthy population, yet its nutrition sector remains stalled despite decades of planning and investment. Nearly 38% of children under five are stunted, and food insecurity continues to affect millions. Landmark initiatives like the National Food and Nutrition Policy and the Seqota Declaration demonstrate strong political will—but implementation and scale-up falters due to entrenched structural failures. At the core of this breakdown is an overstretched and under-resourced frontline workforce. Health Extension Workers, while committed, are burdened with wide-ranging responsibilities, and lack the specialized training needed for effective nutrition service delivery. As a result, national strategies often collapse at the community level, where change is most urgently needed. This is further compounded by fragmented coordination. Despite the multisectoral nature of malnutrition—spanning health, agriculture, education, and social protection—ministries and partners frequently work in silos, sending conflicting messages to the same households. Meanwhile, valuable research and data remain disconnected from policy and program implementation, limiting the system's responsiveness and accountability. The path forward requires more than incremental fixes. Ethiopia needs specialized community nutrition workers to bridge the last-mile gap, a high-level coordination mechanism to align sectoral actions, and agile policies grounded in real-time evidence. Without these structural reforms, the burden of malnutrition will continue to erode the country's human capital and economic potential. This is not just a health crisis—it is a critical bottleneck to national progress. The time for structural transformation is now.

Miracle seeds: Biased expectations, complementary input use, and the dynamics of smallholder technology adoption

To fully benefit from new agricultural technologies like improved seed varieties, significant investment in complementary inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides, and practices such as systematic planting, irrigation, and weeding are also required. Farmers may fail to recognize the importance of these complements, leading to disappointing crop yields and outputs and, eventually, dis-adoption of the improved variety. Using a field experiment, we test an information intervention among smallholder maize farmers in eastern Uganda that points out these complementarities. We find that farmers adopt less after they have been sensitized about the need to use complementary inputs to unlock the adoption premium. We rationalize this finding with a simple theoretical model where farmers have mis-specified mental models of the technology production function and conclude that most farmers in our sample do indeed believe in miracle seeds.

Sidama Coffee Agronomy Program: Impact report

Coffee is Ethiopia’s most important export crop, and it constitutes an important source of livelihood for an estimated 15 million people across the value chain, most of whom are poor smallholder farmers. While coffee production and exports generally increased over the last decade or so, several constraints are still keeping the sector from attaining its full potential. Low-yielding, aged coffee trees and poor farm management and agronomic practices are among the main constraints. Between 2019 and 2022, TechnoServe (TNS)—in collaboration with Max und Ingeburg Herz Stiftung/HereWeGrow (HWG)— implemented a 25-month coffee agronomy training program in the Sidama region of Ethiopia that comprised a package of interventions to address these constraints and increase smallholders’ coffee productivity and income. In particular, the program covered five woredas/districts (Aleta Chuko, Dale, Bona Zuria, Hawela, Shebedino) and reached 47,759 farm households in two cohorts (2019 and 2020).

Proceedings from the National Symposium on Makhana: Unlocking India’s aquatic superfood for rural prosperity

Makhana, also known as gorgon nut, is a nutrient-rich aquatic crop that is primarily cultivated in India, with northern Bihar being the major production region. With a cultivation history of over 2,000 years, makhana is recognized for its nutritional profile, which includes approximately 76.9% carbohydrates, 9.7% protein, and essential minerals. More than 85% of India’s makhana is produced in the districts of Darbhanga, Madhubani, Purnia, and Katihar in Bihar, covering an estimated 15,000 hectares. The annual production of makhana is around 120,000 metric tons (MT) of seeds, resulting in 40,000–50,000 MT of popped makhana. The sector is expected to generate revenues of approximately ₹600 crore at the trader level. However, exports are limited, with roughly 1% of the production reaching international markets such as the USA, UK, Australia, and Gulf countries. In 2022, the Government of India registered ‘Mithila Makhana’ as a Geographical Indication (GI), recognizing its regional and product-specific characteristics. Under the One District One Product (ODOP) scheme, six makhana-producing districts in Bihar have been selected for focused development. Additionally, the Union Budget 2025 announced the creation of a dedicated Makhana Board in Bihar to support the sector across various stages, including production, processing, value addition, and market access. The domestic market for makhana is projected to reach ₹18.9 billion by 20322, indicating potential for further growth and development in the sector.

The symposium was held 20 May, 2025 at the Lemon Tree Premier in Patna, Bihar, India.

Rural income diversification in Ethiopia: Drivers and welfare impact

Diversification of rural households into the nonfarm economy is a key driver of economic growth and structural transformation in countries where agriculture remains the primary source of livelihood. This study examines trends and patterns of income diversification, its determinants, and its association with household welfare in rural Ethiopia. Our analysis indicates that rural households in Ethiopia continued to rely primarily on farming, with only marginal diversification of income sources during 2012–2019, despite the broader context of rapid economic growth. Crop production remains the main source of income, followed by livestock, while nonfarm activities contribute 17–24% of total household income. Factor endowments and local conditions, including rainfall, play a crucial role in shaping diversification decisions. In particular, the 2015–16 drought appears to have pushed households to increase engagement in nonfarm income-generating activities. Importantly, income diversification is associated with higher household consumption, improved dietary diversity, and better housing quality, highlighting the potential of expanding the rural nonfarm economy to enhance household welfare.

A good global investment for the United States: How investing in CGIAR makes America stronger, safer and more prosperous

This report documents how CGIAR investments have delivered substantial economic, security, and diplomatic benefits for the U.S. that far exceed financial contributions. By driving agricultural innovation and providing evidence-based insights, CGIAR has boosted U.S. farm productivity, expanded export markets, and made food more affordable for American consumers. It has also helped prevent billions of dollars in potential damage from pests and diseases that threaten U.S. food security and farm livelihoods. CGIAR promotes American leadership in agricultural innovation by supplying the majority of the genetic materials used in U.S. crop breeding and acting as a critical research partner for U.S. businesses and universities. CGIAR also makes America safer and stronger through its work on predicting crises, protecting food security, and on improving livelihoods as an alternative to migration.

Deforestation and agricultural expansion in Brazil’s Amazon and Cerrado biomes: 2000-2024

The Amazon and Cerrado biomes, which together cover nearly two-thirds of Brazil, are critical to global ecological stability but face significant deforestation pressures driven by agriculture and livestock expansion. While the Cerrado, with its savanna-like vegetation, and the dense forests of the Amazon have distinct ecological characteristics, both have been similarly impacted by Brazil's rapid agricultural and infrastructural development. Historically, these biomes were sparsely occupied until the 20th century, when large-scale projects such as the Belém-Brasília and Trans-Amazonian highways facilitated settlement and land conversion.
During the 1980s, agricultural frontiers expanded rapidly, especially in the Cerrado. Research by Embrapa introduced advanced soil management techniques and crop adaptation strategies, enabling efficient tropical agriculture and converting native vegetation into productive farmland for crops like soy and corn. In the Amazon, where soils are less fertile, large-scale cattle ranching dominated, leading to the establishment of the infamous "arc of deforestation" along major transport routes.

Senegal at a crossroads: Prioritizing large-scale food fortification under financial uncertainty

Senegal long has been committed to large-scale food fortification (LSFF), especially for salt, edible oil, and wheat flour, bolstered by a set of multi-sectoral nutrition strategies and institutional coordinating mechanisms. Yet, due to recent macroeconomic pressures and reductions in donor funding, the country is at a crossroads, revealing key gaps in the sustainability of its current LSFF program even as new vehicles, such as rice and bouillon, are emerging on the fortification policy agenda. Based on interviews with over two dozen public, private, and civil society sector actors, we utilize the Political Economy Diagnostic of Large Scale Food Fortification (PEDAL) to highlight strengths of the Senegalese LSFF program and weaknesses that need to be prioritized. Among the latter include the stalled financing for the national fortification alliance, known as COSFAM, insufficient testing materials and laboratories, and rising costs of premix and raw materials. Several innovations were promoted by respondents to address some of these challenges, including either the decentralization or regionalization of laboratory capabilities, a central buying center for premixes, and online data platforms to track compliance. By reflecting on Senegal’s long experience and current challenges with scaling its fortification efforts, the analysis provides useful insights to countries with more nascent fortification programs about the prerequisites for ensuring LSFF sustainability.

Africa’s youth and the future of food: IFPRI’s key takeaways from AFS forum 2025

Over 60% of Africa’s people are under 25. By 2035, more young Africans will join the workforce each year than in the rest of the world combined, underscoring the urgency of the 2025 African Food Systems Forum (AFS Forum) theme: “Africa’s Youth: Leading Collaboration, Innovation, and Implementation of Agri-Food Systems Transformation.”

The spotlight on youth was clear from the outset. Presidents Bassirou Diomaye Faye of Senegal and Paul Kagame of Rwanda engaged in substantive dialogue with young agrifood entrepreneurs from across the Continent. Their energy was sustained through to a jubilant award ceremony celebrating the “Go-Gettaz” along with other prizes honoring young Africans.

2024 Social Accounting Matrix for Egypt

The 2024 Egypt Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

2023 Social Accounting Matrix for Sierra Leone

The 2023 Sierra Leone Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

2023 Social Accounting Matrix for Philippines

The 2023 Philippines Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

2023 Social Accounting Matrix for Vietnam

The 2023 Vietnam Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

2022 Social Accounting Matrix for Nepal

The 2022 Nepal Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

2023 Social Accounting Matrix for Indonesia

The 2023 Indonesia Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

2023 Social Accounting Matrix for Sri Lanka

The 2023 Sri Lanka Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

2019 Social Accounting Matrix for Honduras

The 2019 Honduras Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report – August 2025

- Rice prices in August 2025 declined nationally, falling by **6% year-on-year** and **2% month-on-month**. The decrease was driven by international market trends and downward pressure from the incoming monsoon. Prices either stabilized or declined across all states and regions, **except in Shan (North)**, where rice prices increased and are currently the highest in the country.

- Export crop prices diverged: **Green gram** and **maize** increased this year due to strong international demand. **Black gram** and **pigeon pea** declined year-on-year due to reduced demand in India.

- Animal-sourced food prices surged over the last year: **Pork** rose by **68%**, driven by rising production costs. **Fish** prices increased amid strong export demand.

- Multiple risks lie ahead that may undermine agricultural production, farm income, and food security: Falling international rice prices, Ongoing conflict, Quality issues, Import restrictions, Disruptions in border trade

A good global investment for the United Kingdom: How investing in CGIAR reduces global poverty and benefits U.K. citizens

CGIAR investments have delivered substantial economic benefits for the U.K. while reducing global poverty and food insecurity. CGIAR has boosted productivity on British farms, expanded
export markets, and made food more affordable for British consumers. It has also helped prevent potential damage from pests and diseases that threaten U.K. farm livelihoods. CGIAR investments are likely to continue benefiting U.K. farmers in the future as the CGIAR’s provision of genetic material to the U.K. has increased over time. This paper quantifies the benefits to
farmers, exporters and consumers.

Analysis of antibiotic use, biosecurity and mortality in semi-intensive broiler farms in Kenya

The indiscriminate use of antibiotics in food-producing animals contributes to antimicrobial resistance (AMR), posing a global threat. Understanding the factors associated with antibiotic use is critical to combat resistance while maintaining animal health. This study examined antibiotic use practices, mortality rates, biosecurity levels, as well as the associations between biosecurity and antibiotic use, and between biosecurity and mortality, in semi-intensive broiler farms in Kenya.

The study was conducted in 129 semi-intensive farms with total flock sizes between 200 and 2000 birds across three peri-urban counties in Kenya. Data were collected prospectively over one production cycle, with farms visited biweekly using questionnaires and a drug bin approach. Biosecurity levels were assessed by a panel of experts who weighted scores for various external and internal biosecurity subcategories. Directed acyclic graphs (DAG) described potential relationships between explanatory variables, confounders and outcome. Logistic regression analysis was conducted with antibiotic use as the outcome variable. Explanatory variables with P < 0.25 in the univariable logistic regression were included in the multivariable regression. Similarly, linear regression was conducted using mortality as the outcome. Overall, 72% of farms used antibiotics, primarily for prophylaxis (66%), with erythromycin and oxytetracycline being the most commonly used antibiotics. The median mortality rate across the production cycle was 6%. There was no significant difference in mortality between farms using antibiotics and those not using antibiotics. Biosecurity practices were low, with a median biosecurity score of 14.3/67.9. Univariable screening suggested potential associations between antibiotic use and vaccination of day-old chicks, flock size, cleaning protocol for chicken drinkers, resting period between batches, feed store cleaning, water source, distance from neighbouring farms, and age. However, these were not significant in multivariable logistic regression. Linear regression showed an association between mortality and biosecurity measures, specifically disease management and visitor entry regulation. This study highlights widespread antibiotic use, low biosecurity implementation, and variability in mortality rates in the farms surveyed. There is a gap in farmers’ implementation of effective biosecurity measures and understanding of prudent antibiotic use. An urgent need exists to develop comprehensive data collection methodologies, education, and interventions to promote responsible antibiotic stewardship and cost-effective biosecurity practices among poultry farmers in Kenya.

Women's empowerment in Ghana's agriculture sector: Insights from the Women's Empowerment in Agriculture Index

Key messages
• Gender disparities in agriculture persist in Ghana, particularly in land ownership, credit access, and decision-making power, limiting women’s productivity and contribution to food security.
• The Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) has been instrumental in revealing these gender gaps in northern Ghana, but similar data are lacking for other regions, hindering national-level policy responsiveness.
• Targeted interventions, such as securing land rights for women, improving access to financial services, and promoting participation in farmer-based organizations, are critical to advancing women’s empowerment and achieving gender-equitable agricultural development.

Global food security impacts of extreme weather events and occurrence of breadbasket failures

Agricultural yield shocks are frequently correlated across countries and much of the recent literature concludes that both the volatility of shocks and the extent of correlations across countries are likely to increase substantially with climate change. Given this background, it seems important to consider the potential impacts of large, synchronized yield shocks in both developing and developed countries. These shocks are examined using IFPRI’s MIRAGRODEP model and the linked POVANA household models to assess the impacts on real incomes, food prices, poverty and food insecurity. The results of a 25% reduction in productivity in South Asia and Eastern and Southern Africa are compared with a similar productivity reduction in Europe and North America. The results make clear that the adverse impacts on global poverty and food security are much more severe when the shock originates in developing countries. The results point to a need for quite different policy responses in the case of a multiple breadbasket failure arising in the global south, rather than—like the three most recent food crises—in the global north.

The future of food demand: A global meta-analysis and projections of income and price elasticities

Understanding how food demand responds to household income and price changes is essential for anticipating global food needs and designing effective food policies. Yet existing elasticity estimates vary widely due to differences in data, estimation methods, and study settings. This study aims to assess how empirical choices influence elasticity values and examine theory-based predictions related to income
growth and inequality, urbanization, and demographic change. It provides the most comprehensive global systematic literature review and meta-analysis of income and price elasticities to date, compiling over 13,000 elasticity estimates from 215 peer-reviewed studies published between 1974 and 2022. We estimate two-level random effects meta-regressions and use the results to generate predicted elasticities for nine food groups by world region. While most data and methodological choices have little effect on price elasticity estimates, income elasticities are influenced by factors such as demand model type, use of conditional specifications, and the choice of expenditure measure. We find empirical support for Engel’s Law but only partial support for Bennett’s Law. Income elasticities are positively associated with urbanization, particularly in lower-income countries, and negatively associated with population aging. By projecting income elasticities through 2050 under alternative Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, we show that ignoring structural shifts in sociodemographics can yield meaningfully different estimates of future food demand.

Women’s control over income and household spending decisions: A rapid review

Often-cited studies show that when women influence or control household spending decisions, they tend to spend in ways that improve the welfare of their household. However, these studies are decades old, and the most recent review of this evidence was published over a decade ago (see Doss 2013). We present a rapid review of this literature since 2013 on women’s relative bargaining power over household resource allocation and its relationship with key well-being outcomes. Specifically, we review the evidence to answer the following questions: 1) Does women’s control over income within the household influence household expenditure patterns?; 2) Does the source of women’s income matter for spending decisions?; and 3) Does the amount of women’s income matter for spending decisions?

We employ a rapid review approach to identify research published since 2013 that focuses on how women who have influence or control over spending decisions allocate those resources and associations with well-being outcomes. Utilizing key search terms and clear selection criteria, we identified 46 papers. Most studies represent sub-Saharan Africa. They employed a range of methods and represented a mix of observational and experimental (or quasi-experimental) designs. Most studies did not specify the source of income, but we did identify those focused on income from agricultural or off-farm activities, remittances, and cash transfers.

Our review of the literature since 2013 has generally found evidence that is consistent with the research prior to 2013, but more convincing as there has been an increase in causal evidence published. Compared to men, women prioritize spending on investments in children, their education, food – including more diverse and nutrient-dense foods – and on healthcare regardless of income source. Overall, women’s influence over resource allocation decisions tend to promote equitable distribution of money to boy and girl children. We see mixed results around how women prioritize investing in savings compared to men; several studies indicated women prioritize savings more than men but do so for different reasons, although one study in a matrilineal society indicated that women prioritize food budgets at the expense of building savings. And finally, there is consistent evidence that the share of household budgets spent on adult goods or vices (primarily alcohol and tobacco) reduces when women have higher relative bargaining power over how these resources are allocated. Few studies considered how the amount of money influenced women’s ability to allocate it, suggesting that women may be able to influence spending over smaller amounts of resources compared to larger expenditures.

To address gaps identified in the literature, future studies could look across income from different sources to understand whether women have greater influence or control over certain income streams compared to others, or how the source of income may influence how the money is allocated. They could also explore the relative amount of income women can control and how women’s control over income fluctuates as total household income changes. We recommend a systematic evidence review to assess the different levers influencing women’s relative bargaining power over resource allocation within a household and understanding the outcomes of women’s bargaining power.

Presentations for Mobility in a Fragile World: Evidence to Inform Policy

Deploying high-frequency market data to estimate the cost of recommended diets: Recent trends in Rwanda

This study estimates the cost and affordability of recommended diets in Rwanda from April 2019 to December 2024 using high-frequency market price data. By deploying standardised methods for healthy diet costs to eSoko data (www.esoko.gov.rw), and local food based dietary guidelines, we calculate the monthly cost of recommended diets at the district level. Key findings reveal significant dietary cost fluctuations, with nominal costs increasing 67% between June 2022 and October 2023, coinciding directly with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The research also identifies affordability challenges; by mid-2023, and again in late 2024, where up to 70% of wage earners could not afford a recommended diet. Spatial variations were also evident, with diet costs differing between rural and urban areas, and across districts bordering different countries, with the highest dietary costs observed along the Democratic Republic of Congo border and the least expensive along the border of Tanzania. Utilizing Rwanda's eSoko data platform, the study demonstrates the value of high-frequency, spatially explicit data for understanding food system dynamics. The findings call for policy actions to consider dietary affordability, particularly for low-income groups, and suggest that Rwanda's data collection approach could serve as a benchmark for other countries.

Tractor service providers in Myanmar: Early insights from the 2025 monsoon season

This note presents results from a July–August 2025 phone survey of 401 tractor service providers (TSPs)—who play a vital role in enabling timely land preparation and planting— offering early insights into the 2025 monsoon season.

Key Findings
• Acres prepared by TSPs declined by 12 percent compared to the previous year (11 percent in the Dry Zone, 17 percent in the Delta), largely reflecting weaker rice price incentives in the Delta and insecurity in the Dry Zone.
• Lower demand for services was reported by 55 percent of TSPs compared to the previous year, and 40 percent faced operating restrictions, mainly due to securityrelated movement constraints – including new restrictions in Ayeyarwady.
• Nominal service charges rose by an average of 16 percent from the previous year, driven by rising costs of fuel, repairs, and operators, along with reduced availability of these inputs.
• Most TSPs (87 percent) extended credit to their clients, usually without interest, making them an important source of informal credit for farmers.
• Cash flow problems affected 31 percent of TSPs, driven by declining revenues (50 percent) and rising operating costs (65 percent). Many coped by borrowing or selling assets. With high inflation, service charges likely failed to rise in real terms, adding to the financial pressures they faced. Recommended Actions
• De-risk credit for mechanization services by sharing repayment risks or expanding access to affordable credit for farmers, reducing the financial burden on TSPs while maintaining access to services. • Improve mobility and security for TSP operations through greater transparency at checkpoints, fewer required permissions, and safer roads in conflict-affected areas.
• Stabilize fuel and machinery costs and availability by facilitating imports, easing access to foreign exchange, and strengthening distribution networks to reduce operating pressures on TSPs.
• Support training and retention of machine operators to address widespread shortages driven by outmigration and insecurity, ensuring service quality and machine upkeep.

IFPRI Making a difference

From the 2025 update: The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) reaches millions of people through its mission to provide research-based policy solutions to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods; contribute to empowerment for all; and promote sustainable, climate-resilient food systems. Together with partners, IFPRI generates needed evidence for global, regional, and national policies, investments, programs, and institutions that contribute to poverty reduction and help ensure that all people have access to safe, sufficient, nutritious, and sustainably produced food. IFPRI is a Research Center of CGIAR, the world’s largest agricultural innovation network, and is the only CGIAR Center solely dedicated to food policy research. Through multisectoral research and engagement with stakeholders, IFPRI also informs effective policies, programs, investments, and institutions that contribute to productive livelihoods and sustainable, resilient, and equitable agriculture and food systems. The pathway from research to impact can be direct or, at times, more difficult to trace. IFPRI commissions independent, peer-reviewed assessments of our work and engages researchers in internally validating our activities. This brochure highlights some of these stories to show how IFPRI’s research is making a difference for people and the planet. With this work, we are advancing toward our vision of a sustainable world free from poverty and malnutrition.

From the 2021 update: IFPRI is reaching the lives of millions of people through its contribution to policies and programs that reduce poverty, hunger, and malnutrition. This looks at how a selection of IFPRI’s research is contributing to better outcomes for food and nutrition security and poverty reduction.

Foresight and trade-offs analysis to identify innovative solutions for agricultural sustainability in Pakistan

A team of researchers from IWMI and IFPRI are exploring hydro-economic modeling and trade-offs in the agricultural sector to achieve water, food security and sustainability in regions facing growing resource constraints.

Presentations for Fertilizers in a Shifting Global Landscape – Trends, Trade, and Sustainability

2023 USAID/IFPRI Population-Based Survey (PBS) for Khatlon Province, Tajikistan

The 2023 USAID/IFPRI Population-Based Survey (PBS) for Khatlon Province, Tajikistan, is a collaborative data collection effort led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Tajik Academy of Agricultural Sciences (TAAS). This survey was designed as a panel dataset linked to the 2015 Interim Zone of Influence (ZOI) Survey, with the aim of capturing household livelihood characteristics in the study area. Both the 2023 PBS and the 2015 Interim ZOI Survey collect detailed data on community, household, and individual characteristics of respondents.

In total, the 2023 PBS covers 2,000 households. The survey employed two types of questionnaires:
A household-level questionnaire, administered to any knowledgeable household member; and
An individual-level questionnaire, administered privately to one randomly selected male and one randomly selected female household member.

Unlike the 2015 survey, the 2023 survey did not specifically target the main male and female decision-makers in the household. Enumerators successfully completed the household-level questionnaire for all 2,000 households across 99 villages, consistent with the survey sample design. However, they encountered challenges in administering the individual-level questionnaire to the selected respondents. As a result, the individual-level dataset includes interviews with 535 male respondents and 1,170 female respondents.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: July 2025

This report analyzes market dynamics in Sudan between February and July 2025, focusing on prices, availability, quality, fuel, exchange rates, and traders’ perceptions of supply, demand, profits, and market conditions.

Between February and July 2025, Sudan’s markets showed mixed trends and sharp regional disparities. Cereal prices were mostly stable: wheat held steady with a short rise in early July, sorghum increased in June then stabilized, millet fluctuated slightly, and wheat flour fell in early July before rising sharply. Wheat and wheat flour availability improved, while sorghum and millet availability declined marginally.

The gendered effects of rainfall on early childhood nutrition: Evidence from Papua New Guinea

Rainfall fluctuations can significantly reduce welfare for poor rural households in low- and middle-income countries dependent on rainfed agriculture for consumption, and in some contexts these adverse effects may be borne disproportionately by vulnerable household members, particularly children and girls. We present new evidence around the effects of rainfall fluctuations on child anthropometric status in Papua New Guinea, an understudied context characterized by some of the highest stunting rates in the world. We show that negative fluctuations in rainfall within a 12-month period are associated with reduced household consumption (driven by reduced consumption of own-produced food). Moreover, when these fluctuations are observed in the first year of a child’s life, they lead to a reduction in height forage and weight-for-age (though no shift in stunting), but this effect is observed only for girls: boys seem to be protected from the adverse effects of rainfall fluctuations experienced in infancy.

Gender attitudes in agriculture and positivity bias: A survey experiment in four countries in Sub-Saharan Africa

Extensive prior research has demonstrated that reducing gender discrimination enhances women’s empowerment, promotes more inclusive livelihoods, increases agricultural productivity, and improves other development outcomes. This study aims to contribute to documenting and informing the measurement of gender attitudes that relate directly to reaching, benefiting, and empowering women through agricultural innovations. By analyzing data from 8,051 survey respondents across study sites in Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Rwanda, our findings emphasize both commonalities and differences in gender attitudes across different contexts. Furthermore, by including a survey-based experiment during data collection, we assess whether gender-attitude statements vary depending on whether they are presented in a positive frame (focusing on equality) or in a negative frame (focusing on inequality). On average, rural women and men respondents across all countries supported more than half of the gender-equality statements. Some gender-inequality attitudes persisted across the four countries but varied in magnitude and by location, age group, and specific statement or theme. Framing matters: respondents exposed to a positive framing supported 16 percent more gender-equality statements than those exposed to a negative framing. The study highlights two main implications. First, the findings indicate the importance of considering both restrictive
attitudes and those that reflect gender-equality opportunities as being in the vanguard. Accordingly, gender-focused interventions should adopt strategies that challenge normative
views of women as supporting rather than leading actors in agriculture and economic activities. Second, gender-attitude measures do not perfectly align with country-level gender-equality
indicators or with empowerment at the intrahousehold level. They therefore capture a distinct dimension and merit their own indicators.

Digital literacy training to promote diffusion of digital agricultural tools to smallholder farmers: Evidence from a randomized intervention in Egypt

Despite growing enthusiasm about the potential of digital innovations to transform agrifood systems, adoption among smallholder farmers in Africa remains low and heterogeneous. While the proliferation of digital tools targeting smallholder farmers is encouraging, the vast majority remain at pilot stages, facing important demand and supply-side barriers to adoption. This paper evaluates alternative digital literacy interventions designed to address these demand-side barriers. Following a Training of Trainers (TOT) model, we designed and implemented a randomized control trial to test three variants of digital literacy training: standard classroom-based digital literacy training (T1), digital training complemented (preceded) by a video-based play (T2), digital training complemented (preceded) by a live community play (T3), and a control group (C). We find that all variants of digital training significantly increased the uptake and utilization of digital tools by smallholder farmers. Specifically, the standard digital training alone increased uptake by 20 percentage points and utilization by 26 percentage points. The interventions also significantly enhanced farmer trust in digital tools by 8–13 percentage points. Surprisingly, for some outcomes, the digital literacy training alone outperformed the combined approaches that incorporated edutainment nudges. We explore possible explanations, including group size effects and social influence dynamics during the plays. We also document heterogeneity in the impact of these interventions across farmers’ gender and age. Our findings offer insights for designing cost effective and scalable interventions to build digital capabilities and trust among smallholder farmers.

Analyzing Early Childhood Development (ECD) in Yangon and rural Ayeyarwady: October - November 2023

KEY FINDINGS
• Support for learning: 79 percent of children received four or more stimulating activities, but only 20 percent had three or more books; fathers’ engagement with children (30 percent)
lags behind mothers (81 percent).
• Caregiver Reported Early Development Instruments (CREDI): the standardized score in the study sample was 58.4, which is lower than scores reported in similar studies from India
(70.0), Tanzania (64.0), and Armenia (81.8)
• Household inequalities: Asset-rich, food-secure households show higher ECD scores; severe food insecurity lowers scores by ~2 points.
• Conflict and shocks: Migration and physical insecurity reduce ECD scores by 0.5-1.0 points.
• Parental influences: Fathers’ education boosts ECD outcomes; maternal depression and low aspirations for girls reduce ECD outcomes.
• Care quality: Inadequate care reduces ECD scores by 1.3 points; stunting lowers ECD scores by 0.8 points, while access to books and ECE increases ECD scores by 0.7 points.

Malawi can end hunger after the 2025 elections if bold steps are taken to transform food systems

Malawi has a history of peaceful democratic transitions. Since the advent of multiparty politics in 1994, power has regularly shifted between rival parties. Citizens and institutions have upheld electoral democratic norms, from respecting term limits to rerunning elections after irregularities.

Yet, democratic elections haven’t translated into economic prosperity, nor into strong economic institutions. Malawi remains the world’s poorest conflict-free nation. At the last count in 2019, 70% of Malawians lived below the international poverty line of US$2.15 per day. More than half of Malawi’s residents are deprived in many, overlapping ways.

Aligning AfCFTA and CAADP for Africa’s agrifood systems future

Key messages
AfCFTA and CAADP are Africa’s twin engines for structural transformation, but their success depends on deliberate alignment. While AfCFTA drives regional integration through trade liberalization, CAADP focuses on building resilient, inclusive, and sustainable agrifood systems.
• There is strong strategic complementarity between the two frameworks, especially in goals related to competitiveness, private sector development, and integration of regional value chains. But alignment weakens at the level of implementation—risking policy incoherence and missed opportunities.
• Tensions between AfCFTA and CAADP implementation exist around tariff liberalization, domestic policy space, and sector readiness, with risks that liberalized trade could outpace capacity of fragile agriculture sectors to compete, adapt, and benefit.
• Food security, equity, and environmental resilience—central to CAADP—are recognized in AfCFTA objectives and justify certain exceptions yet remain only weakly embedded in its implementation protocols. • Institutional silos and fragmented infrastructure strategies could undermine coherence, with risks of trade and agriculture ministries, as well as regional and continental bodies, operating separately.
• Strategic coordination, sequencing, and governance reform are essential. Alignment of AfCFTA and CAADP is not automatic—it must be designed, negotiated, and sustained to deliver on Africa’s transformation promise.
• Bridging AfCFTA and CAADP is not a one-time alignment exercise but rather a strategic process of political, institutional, and analytical interaction that must be continuously revisited and actively managed if it is to deliver on the continent’s shared aspirations for prosperity, food security, and sustainability.

Trade, not aid? The emerging donor strategy and its implications for Africa’s agrifood systems

Key messages
1. The United States is shifting its development engagement in Africa from aid to trade, emphasizing commercial partnerships, private sector development, and export-oriented growth. This shift is not unique to the United States; similar trends are being seen in Europe, China, and Japan, reflecting a global swing toward trade-first or business development strategies.
2. If well aligned, this approach can reinforce African priorities as defined in the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) 2026–2035 Strategy, the Kampala Declaration, and national agricultural investment plans. Trade-first strategies map directly onto CAADP’s six strategic objectives, including agro-industrialization, food security, inclusivity, resilience, financing, and governance.
3. These strategies can also support implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area, especially through investment in trade corridors, logistics, standards systems, and regulatory cooperation. However, there are risks of misalignment if initiatives prioritize donor or investor interests over inclusive transformation, public goods provision, and food systems resilience.
4. As articulated in discussions during the recent 4th International Conference on Financing for Development, consensus is building for Africa to move beyond aid and propel growth through private sector development.
5. African governments and partners must also go beyond coordination and seriously consider the institutional and political work required to steer this opportunity toward the public good. This consideration will require investing in regulatory capacity, protecting public goods, confronting corruption and capital flight, and ensuring that trade and investment flows are transparent, accountable, and inclusive. Without this, trade-first strategies risk reinforcing existing inequalities, undermining food systems resilience, and turn-ing agrifood transformation into an elite project.
6. Strategic statecraft—rooted in evidence, integrity, and public accountability—is essential to ensure that this shift delivers not just markets but also meaningful structural transformation through industrial policy.
7. The pivot to “trade, not aid” by global partners reflects a broader retreat from long-term development commitments. But it must also be recognized as a shift in priority from shared development outcomes to strategic self-interest, market capture, and influence.
8. Africa cannot be viewed as an open market to be carved up, claimed, or divided. African countries must insist on strategic alignment, mutual accountability, and respect for national development priorities—or risk having their food systems and economic futures being shaped by agendas that do not serve them.

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Assessment of the processes of facilitating the co-creation of food system innovations in Caquetá/Colombia

Harnessing livestock for climate action and food security: A strategic opportunity for Africa and the Global South

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, August 2025

Highlights
Retail prices of maize increased on average by 16 percent in August.
Prices rose in all monitored markets across all regions of Malawi despite continued imports.
Depreciation of the Malawi kwacha (at market rates) against its Zambian and Mozambican counterparts dampened the mitigating effects of imports on maize price increases.