IFPRI Datasets

The effect of teacher training and community literacy programming on teacher and student outcomes

Motivated by extremely low levels of basic reading skills in sub-Saharan Africa, we experimentally evaluate two interventions designed to enhance students’ early-grade literacy performance in rural Mozambique: a relatively light-touch, scalable teacher training in early-grade literacy including the provision of pedagogical materials, and teacher training and materials in conjunction with community-level reading camps. Using data from 1,596 third graders in 160 rural public primary schools, we find no evidence that either intervention improved teachers’ pedagogical knowledge or practices or student or teacher attendance following two years of implementation. There are some weak positive effects on student reading as measured by a literacy assessment, primarily observed in a shift away from scores of zero, and these effects are consistent across arms. Our findings are aligned with the growing consensus that more intensive school- and/or community-based interventions are required to meaningfully improve learning.

How much do our neighbors really know? The limits of community-based targeting

Social assistance programs in developing countries often rely on local community members to identify potential beneficiaries. As community members may observe neighbors’ welfare, their reports may capture transitory shocks better than the proxies typically observable by a centralized policy implementer. To test this, we conduct a lab-style experiment in Central Java, in which participants rank other community members’ welfare, using benchmarks that vary in sensitivity to transitory shocks, and target small cash transfers. We find little evidence that community-held welfare information better reflects transitory shocks and find that targeting decisions mostly depend on perceived differences in overall wealth.

JEL Codes: O12, I32, D83

Agricultural technology adoption and deforestation: Evidence from a randomized control trial

We study the effect of the adoption of improved agricultural inputs on deforestation using a randomized control trial in Nigeria which introduced a more efficient and environmentally-friendly nitrogen fertilizer. We combine survey data from the intervention with earth observation data to develop a generalizable method for evaluating the effects of cluster-level interventions on landscape-level outcomes. We find evidence of an intensification response to treatment exposure that reflects significant heterogeneity across land cover. On land with relatively sparse pre-intervention tree cover, treatment exposure increased deforestation while in denser forest areas the intervention reduced deforestation. We find corresponding effects showing treatment exposure increases agricultural productivity. Our results reflect an intensification response to improved agricultural technology that redirects agricultural activity away from forests and towards existing cropland.

Estimating multidimensional development resilience

Existing measures of resilience are typically based on a single well-being indicator. This is problematic in contexts where households face deprivations across multiple dimensions. We develop a multidimensional resilience measure, integrating probabilistic moment-based resilience measurement approaches with multidimensional poverty measurement methods. Applying these to household panel data from Ethiopia, we show that univariate and multidimensional resilience measures based on expenditure-based poverty, dietary diversity, and livestock asset holdings can yield varied inferences on the ranking of households as well as potential impact of development interventions. Univariate resilience measures constructed using consumption expenditure, dietary diversity and livestock asset holdings show distinct temporal and spatial distributional patterns. But while univariate measures are weakly correlated with one another and with different well-being metrics, multivariate measures exhibit much stronger rank correlations. When we contrast univariate measures of resilience to multidimensional measures of resilience, we find that the latter vary less over the study period; multidimensional resilience measures seem to capture more “persistent or structural” vulnerability and associated capacity of households. We also demonstrate the differences in these univariate and multivariate measures, including the potential of the composite multidimensional resilience measures for supporting targeting processes.

Increasing women’s empowerment: Evaluating two interventions in Uganda

We conduct a randomized controlled trial to test a novel intervention for increasing women’s empowerment in Uganda. The intervention includes a within-household transfer of a productive asset, which has a lower cost than an external transfer. We find that transferring control of some of the household’s sugarcane to the wife significantly increases her access to resources and decision-making power. We also document increases in women’s empowerment arising from a cross-randomized couples’ workshop that improved women’s self-concept and shifted beliefs in gender equality. We find no additional impacts from combining the two interventions. Importantly, neither intervention harms the household’s productivity or husbands’ welfare. In fact, men (and women) report higher marital quality and life satisfaction as a result. However, despite increasing women’s empowerment we find no evidence that the interventions increased measured household investment in food security, child health, or education.

Transfers, information and management advice: Direct effects and complementarities in Malawi

We examine a program designed to alleviate credit, information, and farm management constraints among smallholder cash crop farmers through transfers and a cross-randomized program offering intensive agricultural extension. We document strong complementarities between the two sets of interventions. Investment driven by increased labor expenditures, production, and consumption are highest for farmers that received both transfers and intensive extension, a pattern that persists two and three years later. In the short run, transfers alone led to the reallocation of input expenditures into increased labor for cash crop cultivation, which led to increased production of project focal crops but not total crop production. While farmers in the transfers only group continue to spend more on labor in subsequent seasons, this does not lead to changes in production or consumption, suggesting that the support of the intensive extension was important for the generation of the largest welfare gains from the transfers.

The effect of using indigenous and scientific forecasts on arable farmers’ crop yields: Evidence from Rwenzori region, western Uganda

Whole maize flour could enhance food and nutrition security in Malawi

Maize is the staple cereal in Malawi, with a daily per capita consumption of 383 g (dry matter basis), primarily consumed in the form of nsima, a thick porridge. We combined a milling experiment with focus group discussions (FGDs) to provide insights into mass and nutrient losses during maize grain dehulling and maize flour consumption patterns in rural Malawi. Milling batches (30 kg) of four maize grain varieties were dehulled at three abrasive disk dehullers under controlled conditions. The impact of maize variety and dehuller design on mass and nutrient losses during dehulling was statistically significant (p < 0.05), with a mean mass loss of 28.1 ± 5.7%, and nutrient losses of 9.8 ± 1.9% for protein, 61.7 ± 2.0% for zinc, and 47.7 ± 3.6% for iron. Six FGDs conducted in rural areas of Lilongwe District revealed a preference for refined flour due to convenience and cultural norms, despite the nutritional benefits of whole grain flour, which was recognized for its ability to provide satiety, particularly during periods of maize scarcity. Participants also highlighted switching between flour types based on seasonal maize availability, social stigma associated with whole grain flour, and awareness of nutrient losses during dehulling. Given Malawi’s precarious food insecurity situation, transitioning from dehulled maize flour nsima to whole maize flour or less refined nsima, is imperative. Our study findings can have food and nutritional savings for other southern Africa countries where the dehulling is a common practice.

Buyer-side gender discrimination in bargaining: Evidence from seed sales in Uganda

Haggling over prices is a common feature of economic transactions in many societies. This study examines whether the gender of the seller influences buyers’ negotiation strategies and outcomes in bilateral price bargaining. Using a bargaining experiment in eastern Uganda, we analyze interactions between smallholder maize farmers and either a male or female seed seller. Our findings reveal that buyers negotiating with female sellers are less likely to accept the initial offer price and respond with lower counter-bids compared to those bargaining with male sellers. Negotiations also last, on average, one round longer when the seller is a woman, and final transaction prices are nearly 9 percent lower. These results are particularly relevant for rural economies, where restrictive gender norms limit women’s financial autonomy. Given that small agribusinesses often provide one of the few viable income-generating opportunities for women, gender biases in market interactions can have substantial implications for economic empowerment and household welfare.

Does small-scale irrigation affect women’s time allocation? Insights from Ethiopia

Small-scale irrigation (SSI) interventions have received increasing attention as a potential pathway for women’s empowerment in sub-Saharan Africa. One key aspect of women’s empowerment that SSI can influence is women’s time burden. Hypothesized benefits of SSI for women are less energy exertion and reduced labor in agriculture. Yet, these hypotheses have not been tested empirically. We explore how household adoption of different SSI technologies affects the time allocation of women in the household, using two rounds of intrahousehold panel survey data from Ethiopia. Two different approaches are used to address potential endogeneity issues related to time-constant and time-varying factors that may be correlated with both SSI and time use: an instrumental variables-correlated random effects approach and a fractional multinomial logit-correlated random effects with control function approach. The results suggest that household use of SSI in general is associated with an increase in women’s leisure time. The results further suggest that household use of motor pumps is associated with an increase in women’s leisure time and reductions in the time they spend on farming and personal care. Given that women often provide the labor for irrigation using manual, labor-intensive methods, such as watering cans, buckets, or hand- or foot-powered treadle pumps, the results suggest that SSI using motorized methods has the potential to free up women’s time in farming and enable more leisure time. These findings have broad implications for women’s empowerment and labor allocation. Future research using new and more comprehensive data could explore the mechanisms for the findings in this study and determine if SSI enables women to improve their ability to allocate their time to activities they prefer.

The characteristics of community seed schemes for grains and legumes: Insights from northern Nigeria

CONTEXT
Despite the significant roles that intermediary seed systems play in the supply of quality seed in developing countries, including Africa South of the Sahara, the knowledge gap remains generally substantial regarding the general characteristics and seed quality assurance performance of intermediary seed systems like community seed schemes (CSS), which still predominantly operate outside the formal seed systems.

OBJECTIVE
We aim to narrow the knowledge gap on seed production practices implemented by CSS and their economic characteristics, the extent of seed quality assurance achieved, and potential challenges CSS is facing.

METHODS
Using primary survey data of seed producers of key grains (maize, rice, and sorghum) and legumes (cowpea and soybean) from 380 CSS in Kano state in northern Nigeria, we qualitatively assess seed production characteristics, financial structures of their seed production, aspects of quality assurance measures they engage, and potential roles of external support like training on their implementation of these quality assurance measures.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
We discovered that many of the interviewed CSS have emerged endogenously, taking up seed production to address the challenges in access to quality seed in their locality. Their seed production has often grown into viable businesses that have provided potentially significant additions to their incomes. Oftentimes, these CSS implemented some seed quality assurance measures, including making closer visual checks of seed, checking germination rates, and bagging/packing seed, among others. However, fuller seed quality assurance may be significantly skill-intensive, and most CSS still do not implement many of the recommended measures under some of the intermediary quality assurance standards like quality declared seed. Our qualitative assessment suggests that future support for CSS can focus on technical support to raise the ability to engage in broader categories of quality assurance activities in financially viable ways and to improve the awareness and knowledge of different varieties and access to early generation seed.

SIGNIFICANCE
The quality assurance provided by existing community seed schemes in Nigeria may be relatively limited, particularly in terms of proper maintenance of seed production field and the quality of original varieties that they intend to multiply. Providing external support through training and technical assistance may be an effective way to transform community seed schemes into critical providers of seed quality assurance in intermediary seed systems and fill gaps in the formal seed system.

Rice milling and parboiling trade-offs for economic and nutritional gains with special attention to sub-Saharan Africa: A comprehensive review

Rice is an important source of calories and nutrients for people in low- and middle-income countries. In the quest to respond to consumer preferences and attract premium prices, paddy processors increase the degree of milling (polishing), largely affecting nutritional composition and economic value of milled rice. Milling and parboiling are crucial unit processing operations affecting the quality profile of rice. The literature poorly reports on milling and parboiling operations that provide economic and nutritional gains or losses. Thus, there are no standard milling and parboiling regimes recommended to influence technological and policy changes in favor of public health and nutrition. In this comprehensive review, rice milling and parboiling operations associated with nutritional, economic, food safety and environmental benefits have been presented and discussed. Optimal milling and parboiling strategies that provide nutritional, economic, food safety and environmental gains are proposed as alternatives to conventional processing technologies and practices. Improved parboiling and moderate degree of milling in two-stage systems appear to provide better economic and nutritional benefits.

Using a list experiment to measure intimate partner violence: Cautionary evidence from Ethiopia

While indirect response methods are increasingly used in surveys to measure sensitive behaviours such as intimate partner violence, important questions persist around how respondents understand and react to these methods. This article presents evidence from a list experiment measuring multiple forms of intimate partner violence in rural Ethiopia. We find that the list experiment does not generate estimates of intimate partner violence that are higher than direct response questions; rather, prevalence estimates using the list experiment are lower vis-à-vis prevalence estimates using the direct reports, and are sometimes even negative. We provide suggestive evidence that this pattern may reflect ‘fleeing’ behaviour by respondents who do not wish to be associated with statements indicating their exposure to intimate partner violence.

Gender-just mitigation in the agrifood systems sector: Potential and pitfalls

Mitigation action in agrifood systems is essential for addressing growing negative impacts from climate change. It remains unclear, however, to what extent mitigation in the agrifood systems space addresses gender inequalities and involves women as agents of climate action. This article reviews the literature to identify the main linkages between gender and mitigation in agrifood systems, examines the key barriers preventing women from equitably participating in and benefiting from mitigation actions in agrifood systems, and concludes with best practices to mainstream gender in mitigation actions in a substantive and sustainable way. Promising approaches include strengthening women's land rights; supporting women's economic empowerment through access to finance, information, and opportunities; and supporting women's groups.

JEL codes: Q10, Q18, Q20, Q24, Q54

Looks matter? Field performance and farmers' preferences for drought-tolerant maize in Kenya

Context
To help farmers adapt to climate change, breeding programs have developed drought-tolerant (DT) maize varieties, but varietal turnover among smallholder farmers is slow. One possible reason for low adoption is that DT varieties produce higher yields than older hybrid maize varieties but are not visibly more drought tolerant, especially if morphology is a factor in farmers' varietal choice.

Objectives
Motivated by this conjecture, our first objective is to compare the drought tolerance of a new hybrid DT maize variety and older varieties under farmer-managed conditions in terms of both morphology and yields. Our second objective is to analyze whether increasing farmers' exposure to this variety increases their awareness of its DT traits and subsequent adoption.

Methods
We leverage a project that provided seed trial packs of a new DT maize variety to randomly selected farmers in seven counties in Kenya with varying rainfall conditions. Picture-based crop monitoring across two seasons yielded a novel panel dataset of 18,225 smartphone images labeled for drought damage, and, for a subsample of fields, yields. We use this dataset to compare the performance of promoted and commonly grown varieties. We then use exogenous variation in receiving trial packs to analyze how providing trial packs affects varietal preferences and adoption.

Results and conclusion
The promoted variety produces higher yields than other varieties. Under good conditions, it also appears visibly less damaged during the flowering stage, but morphological differences disappear under more severe moisture stress, and once the crop reaches maturity. Consistent with these observations, treatment farmers do not perceive this variety to be more drought tolerant than other varieties and are more likely to plant the promoted variety only when receiving a free trial pack.

Significance
It could be that limited visibility of DT traits hinders sustained adoption. Increasing adoption of DT varieties to enhance climate change adaptation in drought-prone regions may require facilitating prolonged learning and experimentation opportunities, increasing awareness of how DT traits manifest themselves in terms of yields and morphology under varying rainfall conditions, and, costs permitting, selecting for visible DT traits in plant breeding.

Policy and regulation in seed sector development for vegetatively propagated crops: Insights from Kenya, Nigeria, and Vietnam

Context
In many low- and middle-income countries, smallholder farmers cultivating vegetatively propagated crops (VPCs) have limited access to quality planting material. This constraint can limit both the yield and returns to VPC cultivation. Yet policy and regulations designed to strengthen access to quality VPC planting materials and scale innovative programs that deliver these materials have been relatively unsuccessful to date. Part of the problem lies the unique biological and economic characteristics of vegetative propagation and its distinctness from cereal crops that dominate narratives on seed sector reforms and the resulting policy and regulatory regimes.
Objective
The study analyzes both theory and evidence on existing and alternative models of regulation that may incentivize cost-effective multiplication and distribution in VPC seed systems and markets.
Methods
The study draws on case studies of policy and practice related to quality assurance regulations in four crop-country combinations: cassava in Nigeria and Vietnam, and potato in Kenya and Vietnam. The case studies rely on qualitative analysis that was conducted using a combination of key informant interviews, focus group discussions, analysis of regulatory documents, and analysis of publicly available secondary data.
Results and conclusions
The study describes five strategies for regulating VPC seed systems in our four crop-country combinations, each with its own generalizable costs and benefits. The application (or marginalization) of these strategies is often shaped by fluid coalitions of actors with competing interests and framing narratives, and driven by organizational innovations, technological opportunities, trade relationships, and crises that are crop- and country-specific.
Significance
These findings suggest that regulations designed around strict, centralized quality control systems tend to limit market size, while more localized production systems are limited by both capacity and reach. They also suggest the need for alternatives that balance a permissive regulatory regime with decentralized production systems, grassroots capacity development, market surveillance, and systems that integrate multiple approaches to quality assurance. A detailed set of policy recommendations follows from these findings that inform ongoing country efforts to revise VPC seed sector policies and regulations—reforms that are being pursued not only in the crop-country case studies highlighted here, but also in other countries in both Africa and Asia.

Zinc distribution in structural components of high kernel‑zinc maize and its retention after milling

High kernel‑zinc maize (HKZM) has the potential to contribute to addressing zinc deficiency in regions with high maize consumption, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, milling HKZM may lead to loss of zinc when removing the pericarp and embryo. This study evaluated the zinc distribution in kernel components of HKZM maize grown in different environments, and examined how milling affected its zinc concentration. The zinc concentration in HKZM lines was 27.0–30.7 μg g−1 while in conventional maize it was 19.5–22.6 μg g−1. Zinc in maize endosperm represented 20.5 to 28.2 % of the total kernel zinc while that in the embryo represented 68.1 to 75.7 %. HKZM retained 43 % of its kernel zinc after milling, resulting in flour with 5 μg g−1 higher zinc concentration compared to regular maize flour. Environmental factors had a significant effect on kernel zinc concentrations. Maize grain from commercial mills had 21 μg g−1 zinc, with zinc losses of 22 % to 65 % during milling, resulting in flours with 6–10 μg g−1 of zinc. While HKZM shows promise in alleviating zinc deficiency, its anticipated impact may be limited in regions where refined maize is frequently used for making foods. The development of maize varieties with higher zinc concentration in the endosperm, along with promoting increased consumption of less refined maize products can boost zinc intake for deficient populations.

Beyond the bids: Lessons from farmers' reflections on Vickrey auctions of sweetpotato vines in Rwanda

Context
The use of high-quality seed can significantly enhance nutrition, food security, poverty alleviation, and climate change adaptation in rural farming communities. Economic valuation methods can be used to assess farmers' demand for such seed. However, the reproductive biology of seed and the social and economic institutions surrounding their production and exchange vary widely across crops and regions.

Objective
It is important to understand how such contextual factors relate to the assumptions that underly economic valuation methods. In this paper, we qualitatively evaluated an experimental Vickery auction conducted in Rwanda which aimed to identify farmers demand for disease-free vines of orange-fleshed sweet potato rich in Vitamin A.

Method
Data were gathered through observations of and in-depth interviews with participating farmers, focusing on their experiences, strategies, and motivations during the auction. We examined farmers' reflections on the experimental auctions—rather than the auction results themselves—to understand context-specificity and methodological replicability.

Results and conclusion
Our findings reveal that farmers assigned value to the vines in diverse ways, shaped by personal experience, social norms, and local exchange practices—often diverging from the assumptions of auction theory. These dynamics raise concerns about the validity and reliability of the auction outcomes.

Significance
Although auctions are an increasingly popular tool to evaluate the value of seeds and traits in smallholder farming systems, and although considerable effort has been put into examining mechanisms leading to product overestimation and underestimation in auction settings, this study offers a novel qualitative perspective that uncovers several reasons that explain deviations in the context of an experimental Vickrey auction for sweetpotato vines in rural Rwanda. Our findings highlight the challenges of using auction-based methods in capturing demand when used to value goods that are reproductive, socially embedded, and exchanged outside formal markets.

Cities and agricultural development

In recent decades, rapid urbanization in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) has significantly affected agrifood systems and agricultural development. Innovations in transportation, storage, and value chains, as well as the expansion of nonfarm sectors, have transformed rural communities and reshaped agricultural production patterns. This review revisits the evolving link between cities and agriculture in LMICs, drawing on key theoretical frameworks and recent empirical findings. Three major pathways determining the interaction between urban centers and agricultural development emerge. First, transportation costs and access to urban markets continue to influence agricultural decision-making. Second, changing consumer preferences following urbanization and growing integration into global agrifood value chains drive lasting changes in local farming systems. Third, the expansion of urban nonfarm labor markets is shifting labor away from farms, with uncertain consequences for agricultural development. As a result, the empirical evidence is often context specific.

JEL codes: J61, O18, Q12, Q15, R11, R14

Effect of adding milk to a micronutrient fortified high-energy biscuit school feeding programme in Yemen: A cluster-randomised controlled trial

Background
Two billion children globally are estimated to live in conflict-affected areas. School feeding programmes (SFPs) are a widely implemented safety net that supports children during and after conflict.

Objective
We evaluated the effectiveness of providing milk alongside a high energy biscuits (HEBs) SFP in Yemen on children’s and caregivers’ outcomes.

Methods
We implemented a two-arm longitudinal cluster-randomised controlled trial from December 2023 to May 2024. 42 schools in Al Mukha district were randomly assigned (1:1) to: control, where children received HEBs (2 packets (100 grams) daily), or milk, where children received HEBs plus a 120 ml carton of ultra-high temperature milk. Children aged 6-18 years were randomly selected for enrolment. The primary outcomes were children’s dietary diversity and milk consumption. Secondary outcomes were children’s cognition, learning, attendance, nutritional status, and health. Tertiary outcomes were child and caregiver mental health, and household food security. We conducted intent-to-treat analysis using linear mixed effects models accounting for clustering.

Results
1,299 children were enrolled. After five months, the intervention increased milk consumption, but had no effect on dietary diversity. Children’s cognition [mean difference (MD) 1.00 (95% CI 0.40, 1.61)], literacy [1.14 (0.36, 1.92)], and numeracy [1.06 (0.46, 1.67)] scores improved. Cough symptoms declined: -0.12 (-0.2, -0.03). There were no changes in school attendance or nutritional status. The intervention reduced conduct problems in children [-0.52 (-0.97, -0.08)], severe anxiety in caregivers [-0.03 (-0.06, -0.001)], and household severe food insecurity [-0.09 (-0.17, -0.001)].

Conclusions
Adding a daily milk drink to an HEB SFP in Yemen resulted in numerous benefits for children and their families. Hybrid models to incrementally improve meal quality are feasible, acceptable, and lead to meaningful impacts. More research is needed on medium- and long-term benefits.

Preventing relapse from wasting: the role of sociodemographic, child feeding, and health care determinants and of wasting prevention interventions in Burkina Faso and Mali

Background
Relapse among children treated for wasting is a major concern. We estimated the frequency and determinants of relapse to wasting in two populations exposed to PROMIS, an integrated wasting prevention and screening program.
Methods
Using longitudinal data from PROMIS trials in Burkina Faso and Mali, we calculated the incidence rate and period prevalence of relapse to wasting within 6 months in children who had ≥1 wasting episode ending when they were ≥6 months old for which they were treated and recovered (NBurkina Faso=247; NMali=220). We used backward elimination to select a multivariable model of sociodemographic, nutrition- and health-related determinants of relapse. We also evaluated if prevention interventions (behavior change communication (BCC) and/or small quantity lipid-based nutrient supplements (SQ-LNS) were associated with relapse, adjusting for confounders and trial arm.
Results
Relapse incidence was 2.6 per child-year in Burkina Faso (N=291 episodes) and 1.6 per child-year in Mali (N=300 episodes). In both countries, being fed the recommended food frequency or iron-rich foods after recovering from wasting was associated with lower risk of relapse. In Mali, longer wasting episodes, lack of minimally diverse diet consumption, and several caregiver/household characteristics were associated with lower risk of relapse. In both countries, receipt of BCC after recovery from wasting was associated with lower risk of relapse (Incidence rate ratio [IRR]Burkina Faso = 0.51 [95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.30, 0.86]; IRRMali = 0.26 [95% CI = 0.11, 0.65]), as was receipt of SQ-LNS (IRRBurkina Faso = 0.33 [95% CI = 0.16, 0.70]; (IRRMali = 0.43 [95% CI = 0.19, 0.94]), after adjustments.
Conclusion
Children being discharged from wasting treatment are a well-defined vulnerable population who stand to benefit from targeted post-discharge preventive interventions. BCC that includes advice on optimal infant and young child feeding practices and SQ-LNS may help prevent wasting relapse in at-risk children.

Argentina report on deforestation 2000-2024

Argentina’s native forests are essential components of the country’s ecological and economic fabric. These ecosystems provide a wide array of services, from biodiversity conservation and water regulation to carbon storage and support for local livelihoods. However, human activity and natural events such as wildfires resulted in ongoing forest loss, particularly in regions like Gran Chaco. Understanding the dynamics of forest loss over time is crucial for evaluating the effectiveness of conservation policies and for guiding future land-use decisions.

This report provides an integrated view of Argentina’s deforestation trends between 2000 and 2024. It reviews the legal and institutional framework established to manage native forests, including the 2007 Forest Law and international commitments. The objective is to assess the evolution of forest loss, evaluate regional variations, and reflect on the implications for sustainable development and forest governance in Argentina.

2024 IFPRI audited financial statements

As we reflect on 2024 and look to the future, it is clear that IFPRI's mission remains vital, but food policy research must adapt to an evolving world. That landscape of global development and international cooperation is rapidly changing amid unabated conflicts, crises, misinformation, growing geopolitical uncertainties and, as we write this in May 2025, a sharp decline in development assistance and a shaken international trading system. Yet the fundamental need for high-quality evidence and independent policy analysis remains more critical than ever. Research-based, timely, and well-coordinated actions have the power to build communities that are healthier and more food secure, resilient, and sustainable worldwide.

2024 IFPRI A-133 (Uniform guide)

We have audited the financial statements of International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), which comprise the statements of financial position as of December 31, 2024 and 2023, the related statements of activities, functional expenses, changes in net assets and cash flows for the years then ended, and the related notes to the financial statements.

Food system institutional mapping and capacity assessment in Niger

Niger faces rampant food insecurity, malnutrition, and environmental degradation. The transformation of food systems to tackle such challenges hinges on the capacity and effectiveness of institutional frameworks. To analyze the status, challenges, and strengths of Niger’s food system, a mapping and capacity needs assessment was conducted at three levels—enabling environment, institutional, and individual. Based on the assessment, leadership concerns on strategic guidance were observed at the policy process level, with major issues such as the incidence of corruption, infrastructure constraints, and lack of reliable data availability. At the institutional level, lack of an interconnected network and mutual accountability, resource and funding constraints, and high staff turnover have adversely impacted overall institutional performance. Availability of reliable data evidence is limited or absent due to weak monitoring and evaluation systems and decentralized capacity, lack of sufficient local support, transparency issues in strategy development, and selection bias. At the individual level, there is a need to improve technical capacity on analytical thinking, quantitative and qualitative research tools, and the dissemination of communication, outreach, and information. Despite the climate change-related challenges in the country, there is less focus on environmental management, adaptation, and advanced technology implementation. The underrepresentation of key areas such as socio-cultural dynamics, governance, social protection, and cross sectoral collaboration indicates a potential lack of integration in policymaking and implementation. Overall, there is an urgent need to reallocate resources to enhance the focus on underrepresented yet critical food systems areas, enhance inter-ministerial and cross-sectoral collaboration to ensure a more integrated approach to food systems management, and incorporate social inclusion and equity considerations. Forward-looking strategies should be developed that anticipate and respond to emerging challenges such as demographic shifts, globalization effects, and technological changes.

Tourism for development: A SAM-multiplier study on sports tourism in Kenya

Tourism presents a significant, yet largely untapped, opportunity for Africa to accelerate economic development, create jobs, and foster inclusive growth. This case study for sports tourism in Kenya estimates that for every $1,000 spent by a sports tourist, a total of $3,600 is generated within the Kenyan economy, highlighting the sector's substantial linkages with other sectors, particularly the food system. By 2035, sports tourism could contribute an estimated $1.21 billion to $2.14 billion to Kenya's economy annually and support the creation of up to 237,000 new jobs. About half of these jobs are expected to benefit lower and middle-income households, supporting their livelihoods and poverty reduction. To fully realize these economic and social benefits, strategic policy interventions are crucial, including targeted investment in tourism infrastructure, marketing, and skill development; a
concerted effort to improve the overall business climate to incentivize private sector engagement; and enhanced inter-ministerial coordination between tourism, planning, agriculture and other key stakeholders. While this study focuses on economic impacts, realizing these benefits requires careful planning and sustainable practices to mitigate potential environmental and social challenges.

On the points of failure and entry in global food systems

This study develops a dual-framework for identifying points of failure (PFs) and points of entry (PEs) in global food systems. Building on Schneider et al. (2025), we extend their entry-point analysis by introducing PFs—nodes where systemic risk concentrates. Using dynamic systems modeling and directed network analysis of 50 indicators from the Food Systems Countdown Initiative, we derive PF and PE indexes based on structural metrics from the adjacency matrix. While empirically grounded in network topology, the model accommodates behavioral lags and policy sensitivity. Findings reveal that high-risk and high-leverage components often overlap, enabling more strategic and adaptive interventions. Designing interventions without understanding fragility would be akin to engineering a machine for acceleration while ignoring its weakest links.

Women’s leadership in agrifood governance: Unpacking gender attitudes and framing effects among policymakers with evidence from India and Nigeria

Women’s leadership in policy processes and formal institutions is a powerful pathway to gender equality and women’s empowerment at scale, yet relatively little is known about how key decision-makers who influence access to these positions perceive women’s leadership and how those perceptions can shift. This paper draws on original survey data from 407 elites from 274 agrifood organizations in India and Nigeria to examine elite gender attitudes, their responsiveness to framing interventions, and how these attitudes relate to support for policies promoting gender equality. Specifically, we ask: how do elites in agrifood governance perceive women’s leadership, and how responsive are these perceptions to a targeted framing intervention? We find that elites are substantially more supportive of women’s leadership than the general public in the same countries, yet male elites in particular still express strong endorsement of the idea that men make better leaders. Over half of male elites in our sample in both countries agree that men make better political leaders. A randomized framing experiment embedded in the survey shows that men’s attitudes toward women’s leadership are significantly influenced by how women’s capabilities are framed. Messages emphasizing women’s equal rights and capabilities reduce male elites’ support for gender-unequal statements compared to frames that ask individuals to reject the idea of male superiority. Female elites’ attitudes are more supportive overall and unaffected by framing. These findings suggest that gender messaging strategies should center on positive, equality-based frames, and that elite attitudes are critical to scaling women’s leadership in agrifood governance.

The complex economics of a complete ban on child labor in the cobalt supply chain: The case of the DR Congo

Traders and agri-food value chain resilience: The case of maize in Myanmar

Social identity and crisis resilience in agriculture: Caste, gender, and migration in Nepal

Capacity to weather economic shocks is often mediated by social identity, which in turn determines access to social, economic and physical capital. We study the repercussions of a large economic shock on access to agriculture inputs, agricultural extension, output markets, and the consequent effects on income and livelihoods in rural Nepal. We focus on heterogeneity by caste, gender, and household migration status, using panel survey data from 2300 maize farmers. We observe prolonged effects of the 2020 pandemic induced lockdowns on the incomes of farmers, driven in part by reduced remittances. The shock intensified inequalities in agriculture, especially for female farmers and farmers from disadvantaged caste groups. As the economic impacts of multiple crises continue, policy measures to support the agriculture sector should target disadvantaged farmers, while simultaneously implementing long term strategies to shield the agriculture sector from future shocks.

The agrifood-system wage gap and structural transformation: cross-country evidence

Private sector promotion of agricultural technologies: Experimental evidence from Nigeria

Private sector agricultural businesses are critical for scaling new and potentially environmentally-friendly technologies, though much attention has focused on public agricultural investment. Working with a private firm, we conduct an experiment testing the effectiveness of alternative marketing strategies for promoting the adoption of urea super granule fertilizer (USG) among rice farmers in Nigeria. We disentangle the effects of price discount vouchers and the firm’s standard marketing package. We find that the firm’s standard marketing increases the adoption of USG fertilizer by 24 percentage points while reducing prilled urea utilization by 17 percentage points. Discount vouchers increase adoption of USG by an additional eight percentage points, but are not profitable for the firm. Although the adoption of USG leads to substantial environmental benefits by reducing nitrogen loss, farmer rice yields did not increase. Thus, despite the potential public benefits, private incentives facing firms and farmers are insufficient to drive scaling after a one-year intervention.

Herder-related violence, labor allocation, and the gendered response of agricultural households

Violent conflict between nomadic herders and settled agricultural communities in Nigeria occurs as both groups clash over the use of land and natural resources, in part, due to a changing climate. We generate theory and evidence to study the labor responses of individuals within agricultural households to herder-related violence and consider a “shadow of violence” mechanism, whereby previous exposure to a violent event alters labor responses to a recent event. Using panel data from 2010 through 2019, we highlight how exposure to violence can lead to differing responses in the planting or harvest seasons and among men or women. In the planting season, among both men and women living in households with no previous exposure to herder-related violence, we find that exposure (i.e., singular exposure) leads to a reduction in household enterprise work, but among households with previous exposure experience, exposure (i.e., repeated exposure) leads to an increase in household enterprise work. Meanwhile, repeated exposure to herder-related violence reduces agricultural work among men only. This leads total hours worked to decline in response to singular exposure and to increase in response to repeated exposure especially among women. In the harvest season, we find that singular exposure increases agricultural work among both men and women, but repeated exposure reduces agricultural work among men only.

JEL Codes: E26, E29, I31, Q12

What drives fast food consumption in Asian low-and middle-income countries? A narrative review of patterns and influencing factors

Fast food has become a common dietary choice worldwide, with significant health consequences. In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), particularly in Asia, the consumption of fast food has risen, yet research providing a comprehensive summary of fast food consumption patterns is limited. Therefore, this review consolidates evidence on the patterns and factors influencing fast food consumption in Asian LMICs. A comprehensive literature search was conducted using PubMed, Google Scholar, and references of relevant studies, covering peer-reviewed articles published in English from January 1, 2011, to June 30, 2023. A total of 87 studies met the inclusion criteria, encompassing data from 178,554 individuals across 26 countries. The findings indicated a higher fast food consumption with a preference for Western fast food, such as pizza, burgers, fried chicken, French fries, and sandwiches, over local options. Key factors driving fast food consumption included taste, affordability, accessibility, mass media advertisement, restaurant environment, service quality, and family/peer influence. Furthermore, socioeconomic status, age, gender, and educational background influenced the consumption. For adults, factors like time constraints, lack of alternatives, employment status, health consciousness, stress, and food quality and hygiene were important. The increasing presence of fast food in the Asian diet highlights the need for comprehensive policies to curb this trend and protect public health.

A critical approach to co-producing knowledge for development

Motivation
The concept of co-production has gained currency in development policy as an approach for collaboration and/or stakeholder participation to improve development outcomes. Co-production implies bringing together different knowledges to create something new, acknowledging that knowledge is both plural and partial; there are multiple ways of knowing and no one way represents truth. Yet existing literature on co-production tends to focus mostly on strategies for engagement rather than reckoning with structural forces and practical problems to realizing co-production.

Purpose
This article asks how the implementation of the co-production concept can account for relations of power. It develops a conceptual framework and practical guidance for co-producing knowledge for development.

Approach and Methods
The study provides an overview of the theory and practice of co-production and assesses its use in existing development policy. It draws on insights from political ecology literature to construct a conceptual framework and set of practical strategies for implementing co-production.

Findings
This article advances an approach to the co-production of knowledge that integrates political economy, reflexivity, and participatory methodologies to guide collaboration. This approach accounts for historical marginalization and unequal power relations to guide development interventions and/or policy.

Policy Implications
The article warns against uncritical adoption of co-production and highlights practical measures to examine power relations in order to understand challenges and enact equitable sustainable development in diverse settings.

Phytosanitary challenges and solutions for roots and tubers in the tropics

Vegetatively propagated crops such as cassava, potato, sweetpotato, and yam, or roots and tubers (RTs), play a major role in food security in low- and middle-income countries, yet phytosanitary issues in the tropics lead to substantial yield and quality losses. Challenges to production include institutional limitations that prevent effective responses and potential buildup of pathogens during clonal propagation. Addressing these challenges in a climate change context and diverse sociocultural environments requires a multifaceted approach, including improving access and availability to clean seed by strengthening seed systems; breeding for host resistance and disseminating resistant varieties; strengthening on-farm seed management; and designing effective policies and regulations to deal with seedborne diseases. Vital cross-cutting activities that can help to tackle the phytosanitary challenges of RTs include capacity strengthening, research on emergent pathogens, and improving regional cooperation and harmonization of phytosanitary standards to manage transboundary seed movement.

Typology of Kampala Declaration Activities

Key messages
1. The Kampala Declaration promotes multilevel coherence in agrifood systems investment
by aligning National Agricultural Investment Plans (NAIPs) and Regional Agricultural
Investment Plans (RAIPs) across Africa.
2. The green–yellow–blue typology employed in this brief is a critical innovation that
helps classify and harmonize activities by their governance level—national (blue), regional/
REC (green), and continental/multi-REC (yellow).
3. A majority of activities (132) identified in the CAADP Strategy and Action Plan
2026–2035 are multilevel (green + yellow + blue), indicating broad intent for integrated
implementation, but also emphasizing the need for strong coordination among all
governance tiers.
4. Blue-only activities (74) dominate, revealing a tendency toward national responsibility,
which still needs to be strategically aligned with REC and African Union (AU) initiatives.
5. Continental leadership remains weak, with few AU-led (yellow-only) initiatives, suggesting
a policy gap in pan-African coordination and oversight—particularly in inclusivity,
financing, and resilience.
6. Governance and trade-related interventions show the highest levels of harmonization,
making them potential models for other domains such as food security, inclusivity,
and climate resilience.
7. Inclusivity and resilience are under-prioritized at the regional and continental levels,
requiring policy reframing that treats them as shared public goods rather than local
concerns.
8. RECs are pivotal to the successful implementation of CAADP Agenda but are under-
resourced, requiring enhanced mandates, planning tools, and inter-REC collaboration
to execute cross-border and multicountry initiatives effectively.
9. Successful implementation hinges on institutional reforms, sustained political will,
and capacity building, ensuring the Declaration translates into real, coherent, and transformative
action across Africa’s agrifood systems.
CAADP KAMPALA DECLARATION POLICY NOTE 3
AUGUST

Implications of exchange rate overvaluation and world price shocks for PNG

The large inflow of foreign capital to fund PNG investments in natural gas pipeline and processing infrastructure resulted in a surge in inflation beginning in 2011. Costs of production of tradable goods such as coffee and palm oil rose more (in kina terms) than their output prices, reducing the profitability of these sectors. These price distortions have continued to the present day, as restrictions on access to foreign exchange (mainly through delays in the release of funds) as demand for foreign exchange exceeds supply made available to the public. This policy note reviews PNG’s exchange rate policies and uses an economy-wide simulation model1 to quantify the impacts of these distortions. We conclude with a discussion of policy implications, highlighting the effects of a possible devaluation / depreciation of the kina.

Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report – July 2025

KEY HIGHLIGHTS:
Rice prices in July 2025 declined nationally, falling by 6 percent year-on-year and 1 percent compared to last month. However, notable price increases were observed in the past month in Kachin (+9 percent), due to road closures, and Kayin (+9 percent), due to flooding.
Export crop prices diverged, with green gram and maize increasing this year due to strong international demand, while black gram and pigeon pea declined year-on-year due to reduced demand in India.
Animal-sourced food prices surged over the last year, led by pork (up 67 percent), due to rising production and fuel costs, while fish prices rose amid strong export demand. Fish prices increased in July compared to the previous month, driven by bad weather that prevented many offshore fishing vessels from operating.
Multiple risks lie ahead, including falling international rice prices, ongoing conflict, and natural hazards, all of which may undermine agricultural production, farm income, and food security.

Zambia: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Zambia’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) traders and processors are shown to be the most cost-effective at driving improvements in social outcomes, like poverty and undernourishment. They are also highly ranked in terms of expanding agrifood GDP and employment. Expansion in extension and advisory services for livestock, rural roads, farmers credit, and seed systems also rank high. How ever, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, which highlights potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options overtime and when extreme production shocks occur.

Addressing the double burden of malnutrition in Egypt: Report on a stakeholder workshop on key challenges, policy solutions, and research opportunities

Key messages
Parliamentarians, researchers, and development practitioners shared perspectives on the double burden of malnutrition in Egypt in roundtable discussions.
Infrastructure gaps and policy and research strategy fragmentation are highlighted as challenges to accessibility of healthy food.
Aggressive ads/media environment and inefficient nutrition education programs are regarded as negatively impacting consumer behavior.
Economic factors are widely identified as a major driver of malnutrition.
Recommended solutions include raising nutrition literacy, transitioning from food subsidies to vouchers, improving nutrition services infrastructure, taxing unhealthy foods, and fortifying staple foods.
Participants called for continued dialogue between researchers and policymakers.

The emerging one-stop shop in agricultural value chains: Agro-input retailers in Myanmar

With the intensification and modernization of agriculture in Myanmar, farmers are increasingly dependent on purchased agro-inputs—such as seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides—to enhance productivity. These inputs are typically acquired from small and medium-sized agro-input retailers. Despite their growing significance in agrifood value chains, limited research has examined the roles these retailers play. Drawing on large-scale, nationwide surveys of farmers and agro-input retailers in Myanmar, we explore their operations and implications in this context. Key findings include:
1. There is widespread and increased use of agro-chemicals in Myanmar. Among dry season crop farmers, pesticides were the most commonly purchased input, reported by 73 percent of respondents, closely followed by fertilizers at 72 percent. While fertilizer usage has remained relatively stable compared to nearly a decade ago (75 percent in 2016), pesticide use has increased significantly—rising by 13 percentage points since 2016.
2. The expansion of pesticide use is reflected in official data. In 2017, just over 500 pesticide products were registered; by 2024, this number had increased eightfold. Similarly, pesticide imports in 2023 were five times higher than in 2013.
3. Many agro-input retailers provide complementary services beyond product sales, offering services such as credit, agricultural extension advice, mechanization facilitation, transportation, crop buying, and emergency loans. These complementary services integrate them more deeply into agricultural value chains.
4. Only 12 percent of retailers provided none of the aforementioned complementary services, while 16 percent offered four or more. Competition is a driver of service provision—retailers located near competitors are more likely to offer extension and credit services.
5. Retailers in insecure areas are equally engaged in delivering complementary services as those in more secure regions.
6. Agro-input retailers are a vital source of credit, with nearly half of the farmers purchasing inputs on credit—typically at a monthly interest rate of 2 percent. Larger farmers are more likely than smaller ones to access credit through retailers.
7. Nearly half of the farmers reported receiving agricultural extension advice from their main retailer. This advice often pertains to retailer-sold products but can also address broader agronomic issues. Larger farmers are more likely to use these services than smaller ones. Given the limited availability of public extension services in Myanmar, agro-input retailers are an important, yet often overlooked, source of agricultural knowledge.
8. Despite their advisory role, farmers generally trust retailers’ advice less than other sources. Trust in agro-input retailers ranks below that in other farmers, public, and private extension agents, and only above trust in mills. Notably, medium and large farmers exhibit higher relative trust in retailers compared to smaller farmers.
9. Policy Implications:
• The rapid increase in pesticide use by farmers in the country raises a number of health, safety, and environmental concerns, especially in a situation where oversight is limited given insecurity and travel concerns.
• The decline in public agricultural service delivery, such as extension and credit, in the country also underscores the need for increased attention from stakeholders focused on agricultural productivity and equity. • While agro-input retailers play crucial, multifaceted roles, their services are not universally accessible. Over-reliance on private providers may risk marginalizing smaller farmers from critical services like credit.
• The dependence on retailers for extension advice raises concerns about accessibility and credibility. Low trust in retailer-provided information may hinder behavior change and contribute to product misuse, especially regarding inputs with health and environmental risks like pesticides.
• Further research is needed to understand the nature and impact of the advice given by private retailers. Complementary policy efforts—such as training, certification programs, and trust-building initiatives—may help enhance service quality and farmer confidence.

Leveraging project insights to strengthen WEAI for climate research

Key messages
• Measuring women’s empowerment in the context of climate change, resilience, and adaptation requires a flexible climate module—not a rigid, universal set of indicators.
• Collective agency, community involvement, and social networks are critical to climate resilience. The project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (pro-WEAI)
should expand its climate module to better capture these community dynamics and collective actions.
• Integrating qualitative methods strengthens pro-WEAI’s effectiveness and ensures the tool is tailored to local contexts, which is essential for collecting meaningful and holistic data.

Report on capacity strengthening training on best practices in outcome assessment, data interpretation and agricultural policy analysis

The Capacity Strengthening Workshop on Best Practices in Impact Evaluation, Data Interpretation, and Agricultural Policy Analysis (Phase 1) was conducted on April 22-23, 2025, aiming to build the foundational skills of fieldbased government officials in using agricultural data for informed decision-making. To strengthen its initiative on developing the Inclusive Agriculture Transformation (IAT) indicator, IFPRI has proposed a three-phased capacity-building program for key departmental staff. The objective is to enhance their understanding of the importance of data and its systematic maintenance. This initial phase focused on enhancing participants' understanding of various agricultural datasets and equipping them with basic skills in data interpretation and visualization. The workshop was inaugurated by Dr. Arabinda Kumar Padhee, Principal Secretary to Government, Department of Agriculture & Farmers’ Empowerment, Government of Odisha. The workshop was designed as part of a comprehensive capacity-building initiative to support the Inclusive Agriculture Transformation (IAT) framework, promoting evidence-based policy formulation and implementation.

IFPRI Malawi Monthly Maize Market Report, July 2025

Highlights
Retail prices of maize increased on average by 13 percent in July.
Prices rose in all monitored markets across all regions of Malawi despite continued imports.
Prices rose most steeply in the Southern region, increasing interregional differences.

External assessment of outcomes from IFPRI’s causal impact evaluation research 2012–2022

This report describes methods and findings from an assessment of the International Food Policy Research Institute’s (IFPRI) causal impact evaluation (CIE) research over the period 2012–2022. CIE research is recognized within IFPRI as one of its primary means for contributing to informed policy and program decisions and thus forms a key part of one of its impact pathways. Appendix A contains the terms of reference (TOR) for the study. The main goal was to examine how the outputs of this research were used by stakeholders to make decisions. Many of the impact evaluations considered were conducted in partnership with donors and implementing organizations eager to know the effectiveness of their programs and interventions.

Agricultural mechanization policy in Bangladesh: An assessment of the phase III support program and recommendations for reform

This report assesses Bangladesh's Phase III agricultural mechanization support program (2020–2024), examining the distribution, impacts, and governance of subsidies for agricultural machines—particularly combine harvesters (CHs). We analyze program effectiveness and identify critical imple mentation gaps using mixed-methods research combining administrative data analysis; a representative survey of 979 Machinery Service Providers (MSPs), including 400 CH MSPs sampled across 10 districts representing Bangladesh’s major agroecological zones and mechanization intensity; panel data from over 2,000 nationally representative Boro rice–producing households; and 128 qualitative interviews to analyze program effectiveness and pinpoint critical implementation gaps.

Protocol for management of weedy rice (Red Rice) in biofortified rice production systems

Achieving transformational sustainable land Intensification: Integrated general equilibrium and portfolio analysis for Senegal

Feeding a growing global population while conserving natural resources remains a central challenge of Sustainable Intensification (SI). Despite decades of SI efforts, cropland expansion in many developing countries continues to accelerate, contributing to deforestation and biodiversity loss. Even with observed increases in crop yields, studies suggest that farmers continue to expand cropland, underscoring the need to consider market dynamics and the economywide effects of productivity gains. This study offers a new perspective on achieving transformational sustainable land intensification by treating farming activities as investment decisions shaped by risk and return under production and markets uncertainties. Unlike the traditional SI strategies that focus on efficiency gains through improved inputs or agronomic practices, we apply an optimal portfolio analysis to cropland allocation, aiming to enhance farming efficiency by considering market interconnections across sectors. Using Senegal as a case study, we demonstrate that adopting an optimal diversification strategy on new cropland investment could reduce land expansion needs by up to 68 % by 2030. This strategy not only helps mitigate emissions and reduce water footprint but also enhances crop biodiversity. Socioeconomic and environmental benefits are found to be greater when the country promotes high-value crops in its portfolio, such as fruits and vegetables, compared to grain crops. Our findings also contribute to ongoing debates around land-sparing versus land-sharing strategies and offer new insights into the drivers of cropland expansion in light of current global land use patterns.

The famines in Gaza and other conflict areas are a moral failure

As scientists and members of the Standing Together for Nutrition Consortium (ST4N) who have been Standing Together For Nutrition during recent crises, we use evidence of the impact of crises on nutrition to advocate for the people most affected. Now, in the face of the world's indifference, we are compelled to speak out about the horrifying human-made famine unfolding in Gaza and other conflict areas, including Sudan, South Sudan, and Yemen. Widespread starvation is deliberately used as a weapon of war,10 at a scale that we never thought possible. It is a moral failure that in 2025 more than 1·2 million people are living in Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) phase 5 (catastrophe) famine conditions—the most extreme food insecurity level according to the gold-standard IPC. These famines are not only claiming lives today, but they are also inflicting irreversible intergenerational trauma and damage.

2024 IFPRI annual report

IFPRI’s 2024 annual report reviews highlights from our research to reduce hunger and malnutrition, including work in conflict-affected settings and on nutrition and diets, and our engagement around the world through our country and regional offices and global events.

IFPRI at a glance

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) believes that by working together, the global community can sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition. IFPRI provides cutting-edge research and policy options on food and nutrition security to support these goals. For more than 40 years, IFPRI has collaborated with stakeholders and partners to contribute needed evidence for country- and region-led policies that help ensure that all people have access to safe, sufficient, nutritious, and sustainably grown food.

South Asia Nutrition Knowledge Initiative: Abstract digest August 2025

The sixth edition of the Abstract Digest underscores a complex and evolving nutrition landscape in South Asia, characterized by the persisting "triple burden" of malnutrition – undernutrition, overweight and obesity, and anemia. The 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown to 2030 provides an overarching global and regional assessment of reproductive, maternal, child, and adolescent health and nutrition, with an emphasis on low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), especially in South Asia.

Broadly, the featured articles examine the importance of preconception care and interventions to improve maternal and child health, alongside analyses of antenatal care service utilization and its associated factors. Studies also examine the prevalence and determinants of various forms of malnutrition, and assess the effectiveness and cost-benefit of nutrition programs and interventions, focusing on India and Bangladesh. A few articles focus on adolescent nutrition, highlighting the rising rates of overweight and obesity among children and adolescents in countries like Nepal and Bangladesh, as well as opportunities to improve maternal, infant, young child, and adolescent nutrition service delivery in Bangladesh, India, and beyond. Several articles delve into the influence of food environments on dietary quality and health in Bangladesh, India, and Nepal, as well as the broader context of health systems and policy implementation in LMICs. Many of the studies in this edition call for future research on rigorous evaluations of scalable interventions in real-world settings.

Please scroll down to explore the abstracts of these studies, and information on relevant events. If you were forwarded this Abstract Digest, we invite you to subscribe!

Happy reading!

Uncovering the pathways to gender equality and women’s empowerment through agricultural research for development: Lessons from the Feed the Future innovation labs

Gender equality and women’s empowerment are important development goals for their intrinsic value as well as for achieving other important wellbeing outcomes, such as improved health, nutrition, and food security. Agricultural research for development plays an important role in understanding gender relations, dynamics, and inequalities and in identifying effective strategies and interventions to achieve these goals. The Feed the Future Innovation Labs (ILs) were initiatives supported by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and led by U.S. universities, in partnership with international and national research institutes, with the aim to achieve poverty reduction, food security, nutrition, and resilience objectives. The ILs also aimed to facilitate women’s empowerment and address gender inequality in agri-food systems (AFS).

This study aims to document, categorize, and identify learnings from gender-related research produced by the ILs through an extensive desk review and key informant interviews (KIIs) with gender focal points, researchers, and directors at the ILs. While recognizing the importance of capacity building for gender-related research, we only look at research products and do not review capacity building or other training materials for gender-related research produced by the ILs. As this study is focused on understanding gender-related learnings, we also do not include gender-blind research products produced by the ILs. Based on the final set of research outputs that have at least some focus on gender, we then analyze the gender-related research findings using the reach, benefit, empower, and transform framework. In addition, we also explore the factors that enabled ILs to prioritize and produce gender-related research and learnings.

We draw lessons about the types of research studies that have been carried out under the ILs and the insights that can be gleaned from these studies for designing agricultural innovations and interventions and understanding what works to address gender inequalities in agrifood systems. Much of this work was gender focused and diagnostic or formative. Fewer research studies employed causal methods to understand how interventions are influencing gender equality and women’s empowerment in agriculture. Only a subset of research focused on specific innovations or interventions, which suggests more research is needed in this area, particularly as new innovations are being tested and scaled, as was the objective of many of the ILs. We highlight areas where additional research is needed to inform investments and interventions going forward, such as an increase in integrating gender-informed approaches in research across disciplines, gender-related research that employs causal methods, and in understanding the impacts of interventions that are gender-transformative. Finally, we identify key enabling factors that helped ILs prioritize gender integration, such as institutional leadership’s support for gender integration, sufficient time and budgets earmarked for gender work and staff, and ensuring staff responsible for gender-related research have requisite skills, expertise, and communication skills to work across interdisciplinary teams. Current and future agricultural research for development projects should prioritize gender-related research across their portfolios to strengthen attention to understanding how innovations and interventions can influence gender equality and women’s empowerment in agriculture.

Rural credit, food security, and resilience: An empirical evaluation from Kenya

In this paper, we examine the role of credit in enhancing rural households’ food security and resilience. In so doing, we consider resilience as a higher order capacity outcome, different from traditional development outcomes associated with households’ or individuals’ welfare. We evaluate the effectiveness of two types of agricultural production credit products, one a traditional credit and one that is linked to rainfall index insurance to protect borrowers against the adverse effects of drought. Based on a randomized controlled trial conducted in Machakos county, Kenya, we report both intent-to-treat effects as well as local average treatment effects to demonstrate the impacts of these credit products not only among borrowers, but the broader effects of expanding rural credit markets. We see generally low levels of food security resilience among our sampled households, but we find compelling evidence that credit and expanded credit markets more broadly had beneficial impacts on enhancing households’ food security and resilience. Despite the differences in the two credit products being evaluated, we do not find an appreciable difference in the effects of the two credit types, concluding that the expansion of affordable agricultural credit markets should be among the key policy tools for building resilience among rural smallholders.

Women's tenure security on collective lands: A conceptual framework

Within discussions of land and resource rights, there is growing attention to women's rights, mostly in terms of household and individual rights to private property. This leaves unanswered questions about whether and how women's land rights can be secured under collective tenure, upon which billions of people worldwide depend. There is an important gap in conceptual tools, empirical understanding, and policy recommendations on this topic. To address this gap and lay the foundations for a sound body of empirical studies and appropriate policies, we develop a conceptual framework to improve understanding of women's land rights under collective tenure. We discuss what secure tenure for women on collective lands would entail, then what factors would affect women's tenure security. We give attention to particularities of rangelands, forests, and other types of collective lands as well as commonalities across types. A key theme that emerges is that for women to have secure tenure under collective tenure, the collective (group) itself must have tenure security and the women must have secure rights within this collective. The latter requires us to consider the governance structures, how men and women access and control land, and the extent to which women have voice and power within the collective. More consistent analyses of collective tenure systems using the conceptual framework presented in this paper can help to identify which action resources are important for groups to secure rights to collective lands, and for women to advocate for their rights within the group.

A comparative study of the legal and regulatory dimension of seed sector development in Sub-Saharan Africa using regulatory systems maps: The case of Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Uganda

Perspective: Growth monitoring and promotion as an opportunity to improve early childhood development

Growth monitoring and promotion (GMP) visits provide a frequent contact point with caregivers which can be an opportunity for the promotion of early child development (ECD). Using a combination of quantitative analyses of longitudinal and cross-sectional data and a review of the literature, we investigated whether the GMP platform could improve ECD by identifying children at risk of poor development and delivering responsive parenting education to caregivers of young children. Cross-sectional and lagged regression analyses and area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) indicated that growth indices were not accurate predictors of concurrent and later child development. Rather, validated tools, such as the Ages and Stages Questionnaire or the Survey of Well-being of Young Children, could be utilized during GMP visits to screen individual children for suboptimal development. Through a review of published literature on ECD interventions, we identified 10 light-touch ECD interventions which could feasibly be implemented during GMP visits, but only half have been evaluated for their effectiveness. Our findings demonstrate that, while growth indices cannot accurately identify children at risk of suboptimal development, the GMP platform could offer an opportunity to screen children for suboptimal development and to deliver ECD interventions. Further evidence on the implementation and effectiveness of light-touch parenting programs, however, is required.

Profiling Chinese entrepreneurs

Vulnerability to adverse climate change: Evidence from rural Bangladesh

The role of industrial clustering: From layoff to self-employment after the Chinese state-owned enterprise reform

Bridging the gap: Integrating crop pests and pathogens into agricultural foresight models for food security assessments

Regional and global economic models, combined with spatially distributed crop growth simulation models and hydrology models that simulate water supply and demand across sectors (among others), represent the most widely used quantitative approach for addressing questions related to food security under alternative future scenarios (e.g., for a recent reference, van Dijk et al., 2021). These integrated foresight modelling approaches, hereinafter referred to as “Agricultural Integrated Assessment Models” (AIAMs), provide a macro-level view of the global food system, encompassing, directly or indirectly, implicitly or explicitly, components outlined in contemporary definitions (HLPE, 2017). Due to the complex nature of modelling the effects of crop pests and pathogens (P&P) on crop performances, the use of AIAMs in P&P-related analyses has been scant and limited to hypothetical epidemics caused by specific P&Ps affecting a single crop (Godfray et al., 2016; Petsakos et al., 2023). This limitation, also identified in the ex-ante assessment of the pesticide reduction objective of the European Common Agricultural Policy (Barreiro-Hurle et al., 2021), suggests that AIAMs overlook a critical element – one that has historically contributed to, or even triggered, famine events (Padmanabhan, 1973; Woodham-Smith, 1992). Given the importance of AIAMs in informing policies and shaping agricultural decisions at national and global scales (e.g., Barreiro-Hurle et al., 2021; Fuglie et al., 2022), it is necessary to adress this gap.

Addressing prevention and management of wasting and nutritional oedema in children requires an improved evidence base on resource use and cost-effectiveness of interventions

Effectiveness studies on the prevention and management of wasting and nutritional oedema should ideally include the evaluation of resource use and cost-effectiveness (CE) to allow future guideline development to appreciate this dimension.
Research focusing on resource use and CE should comply with health economic evaluation reporting standards.
Reports should aim to present data on resource use and CE disaggregated by cost input and present data using different costing perspectives, such as provider and beneficiary. This enhances cross-study comparability and increases their relevance for guideline development.
The inclusion of standardised health outcomes, such as disability-adjusted life years, which allow policymakers in resource-limited settings to compare a wide range of available interventions, is useful.

Prevention of wasting and nutritional oedema: Evidence gaps identified during WHO guideline development

Inclusion of prevention in the 2023 WHO guideline on wasting and nutritional oedema is a significant and timely addition, aligning with the global development goal of reducing current wasting prevalence from 6.6% to less than 3% by 2030.
We identified three key evidence gaps in wasting prevention:
Limited evidence on the effectiveness of wasting prevention interventions.
Poor understanding of the challenges in implementing wasting prevention programmes.
The absence of effective criteria for targeting wasting prevention interventions.

As for stunting prevention, wasting prevention programmes should adopt multisectoral strategies that address the root causes of the problem. These programmes should integrate interventions from health, food, water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH), and social protection, and be rigorously evaluated to inform on what works, how and at what cost.
Embedding implementation research within effectiveness studies is crucial to identify and resolve operational bottlenecks that may hinder programme effectiveness. This is particularly important for complex, multisectoral programmes in resource-poor settings, where most of the wasting occurs.
Research is needed to develop and test simple criteria for targeting wasting prevention programmes, including household, individual, or seasonal or community factors associated with high wasting rates.
While continuing to target areas with a high burden of wasting, wasting prevention programmes should be tailored to address context-specific drivers of wasting. Programme design, including targeting criteria, should consider available resources and the capacity of health, food, water, sanitation and hygiene, and social protection systems to support wasting prevention.

Agency and behavior change in agricultural research for development: New directions for guiding agri-food system transformations

CONTEXT
Agri-food system transformations require change across sectors and actors within the system. Initiatives contributing to these changes need to connect system change processes to individual and collective agency and behaviors.

OBJECTIVE
We propose a conceptual framework on agency and behavior change for transforming agri-food systems (ACT framework). ACT emphasizes agri-food system actors' behaviors with attention to their power, agency, and the influence of structural agri-food system elements. Researchers can apply ACT to assess an initiative's contributions to changes in system elements through individual and collective behaviors.

METHODS
We conducted literature reviews and key informant interviews for 29 initiative case studies. Using ACT, we identified patterns in terms of initiatives' targeted actors, behaviors, and the factors shaping actors' agency and behavior. We then applied ACT in an initiative in Zimbabwe to develop a theory of change that links behavior change pathways with broader systems transformation.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
The reviewed initiatives focused heavily on shaping producers' behavior through knowledge transfer, less often considering other actors and structural challenges and opportunities. Key informants frequently reported enablers and impediments to achieve initiative outcomes that were associated with structural system elements. Few were able to articulate their initiative's theory of change and underlying assumptions.

SIGNIFICANCE
ACT can support a more diverse and theory-based exploration of agri-food system initiatives' target actors, behaviors, and factors shaping behaviors. Development professionals can apply the ACT framework to design more effective TOCs that attend to diverse actor groups and leverage the factors influencing these actors' agency and behaviors.

Do estimates of women’s control over income and decisionmaking vary across nationally representative survey programs?

Empowering women is an explicit aim of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 5 and underpins 12 of the 17 SDGs. It is also a key objective of other pan-national agreements, such as the Comprehensive African Agriculture Development Programme. Tracking global progress toward these goals requires being able to measure empowerment in ways that are consistent and comparable—both within and across countries. However, empowerment is a complex concept, hard to quantify, and even harder to standardize across contexts. Two large survey programs—Feed the Future and the Demographic Health Surveys—ask women about two aspects of empowerment, their control over income and input into decisionmaking. Each program uses a different set of questions administered to different sub-populations of women. We use data from 12 countries to show that large within-country inter-survey differences persist even after efforts to harmonize questions and samples. Where available, we compare the FTF and DHS with the Living Standards and Measurement Surveys-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture. We present several hypotheses related to survey structure and survey administration to explain these inter-survey differences. We then either test for or rule out the role of these competing theories in driving differences in levels and in associations with commonly used characteristics. Standardizing survey measures of decision making and control over income and how they are administered is important to track progress toward the SDGs; meanwhile, caution should be exercised in comparing seemingly similar survey items across survey programs.

The role of women in learning games and water management outcomes

Economic games have emerged as promising tools for fostering sustainable resource management, yet their gender dynamics remain underexplored. We examine how women’s participation relates to the effectiveness of game-based learning in 56 Indian communities facing water management challenges. These structured experiential learning environments allow participants to develop system understanding, problem-solving capacities, and collective action through active engagement. Our results suggest that greater female involvement is associated with improved water management outcomes 2 years after the intervention. Notably, the presence of female leaders correlated with broader participation among women, which in turn was linked to the development of more effective management rules. These findings indicate that gender-balanced participation may enhance the success of such interventions. Incorporating women in game-based learning has the potential to support long-term improvements in resource management, highlighting the importance of inclusive approaches.

Nutrition security and homestead gardeners: Evidence from the Himalayan mountain region

Background: Addressing undernutrition and malnutrition requires a multi-pronged approach targeting different populations with appropriate interventions. Knowledge and perception (K&P) of Individuals and communities about nutrition to human health relationship/continuum is a prerequisite for addressing malnutrition in rural and mountain communities. Assessing K&P is essential for developing strategic interventions to up-scaling K&P of communities and achieving nutrition security. Homestead gardens are a proven intervention for achieving nutrition security for all family members of gardeners. Methods: This paper includes homestead gardeners from the Himalayan Mountain Region (HMR) as respondents. We developed a scale to assess the K&P of respondents, based on ratings from 20 judges. A total of 134 issues/items have been retained in the scale from macronutrients, micronutrients, minerals, and vitamins. A framework has also been developed and adopted for the study. A knowledge and perception index (KPI) has been developed based on the respondents’ responses. We have reviewed and analysed the national policy interventions for augmenting the K&P of the study community to achieve nutrition security. Results: The nutrition K&P of respondents are inadequate and far from the desirable level. Policy review and analysis indicate that the creation of K&P in the community to contribute to self and family nutrition security was previously highly neglected. Conclusions: The policy process of national, state, and county/district-level development sectors in developing countries under the HMR may take the initiative to ensure self-nutrition security by creating K&P of the community on nutrition issues. The designed scale is prudent requires testing and validation for measuring farmers’ K&P on nutrition, which may be adopted in future studies and policymaking not only nationally but also from an international perspective.

Consumer preferences for biofortified iron beans: Results from a willingness to pay and choice experiment in Kenya

Micronutrient deficiency is a public health issue in many developing countries including Kenya. Despite the release of Biofortified Iron Beans (BIBS) to bridge the health burden, their adoption has been slow. Our study applies the willingness to pay (WTP) and choice experiments to assess preferences for BIB attributes among consumers. Using a dataset of 561 respondents, we compare the WTP among consumers in a large urban city (Nairobi) with those in a rural area (Bomet) where BIB production has been promoted. We test whether message framing (gain vs loss framed) has varied effects in the rural-urban context, following the prospect hypothesis. This study further utilises choice experiment to test the extent to which biofortification attribute is important for bean preferences. WTP results show that consumers are willing to pay a premium of 38.5 percent for the BIBs above the price of their preferred conventional beans (KES 165.7), signifying high acceptance. Rural respondents have a higher WTP (KES 71.06) than urban respondents highlighting the role of proximity to BIB production area. Consistent with prospect theory, male and urban respondents are willing to pay more under loss-frame messaging than gain-frame messaging, while female respondents are more responsive under gain-frame messaging. Surprisingly, awareness on nutrient enriched beans exhibits negative influence on WTP for the respondents exposed to gain-framed messaging. This may be due to consumers attaching public good properties to BIBs and therefore less willing to pay for biofortified traits. Results from the conditional logit model indicate biofortification is important for urban consumers and female-headed households. Based on the findings, there’s need for targeted nutrition education programming among rural-urban and male-female consumers. Considering that flatulence, cooking time and taste are main preferred attributes of BIBs, promotional messages that include these attributes could be used to accompany the biofortification messages to catalyze adoption.

2023 Social Accounting Matrix for Sri Lanka: A Nexus Project SAM

The 2023 Sri Lanka Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

2022 Social Accounting Matrix for Nepal: A Nexus Project SAM

The 2022 Nepal Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

2023 Social Accounting Matrix for Philippines: A Nexus Project SAM

The 2023 Philippines Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

2023 Social Accounting Matrix for Indonesia: A Nexus Project SAM

The 2023 Indonesia Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

2024 Social Accounting Matrix for Egypt: A Nexus Project SAM

The 2024 Egypt Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

2019 Social Accounting Matrix for Honduras: A Nexus Project SAM

The 2019 Honduras Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

2023 Social Accounting Matrix for Vietnam: A Nexus Project SAM

The 2023 Vietnam Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

2023 Social Accounting Matrix for Sierra Leone: A Nexus Project SAM

The 2023 Sierra Leone Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

The process of decentralizing public administration: Insights from new local governments in Nepal

Total factor productivity growth in Indian agriculture and regional convergence

Livelihoods and welfare: Findings from the eighth round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (October – December 2024)

The eighth round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), a nationally and regionally representative phone survey, was conducted between October and December 2024, with a recall period covering July to December. It builds on seven rounds implemented since December 2021. This report presents key findings on the livelihood and welfare dynamics during the second half of 2024.

Key Findings:
Between 2023 and 2024, household welfare measured by median real household income per adult equivalent declined slightly by 0.8 percent, but real income in 2024 is 15.8 percent lower than two years ago.
The poverty headcount rate rose to 70.5 percent in the second half of 2024, slightly lower than 71.7 percent in 2023 but significantly higher than 65.2 percent in 2022. Wage-earning households remain the most vulnerable, with the lowest median real daily income and the highest poverty levels, particularly in conflict-affected states such as Rakhine, Chin, and Kayah.
Urban poverty increased by 6.9 percentage points over the past year and 15.2 percentage points over the past two years, while rural poverty fell by 4.3 percentage points in the past year and rose by 1.5 percentage points over two years.
Falling wages and access issues were key challenges for wage and salaried workers while high input costs and low supply affected enterprises and crop producers. Market access and transportation issues were challenges for crop sales.

Recommended Actions:
Facilitate safe and productive migration opportunities and strengthen remittance systems to enhance household resilience and keep families out of poverty, as remittance income reduces the likelihood of poverty by 20 percentage points.
Establish and expand social protection systems and safety nets to support vulnerable households, addressing the welfare impacts of escalating conflict, macroeconomic challenges, and the lack of critical state-provided services.

Diet quality and obesity in women of reproductive age in Northern Tanzania: a cross-sectional study

Background: Obesity is an increasing problem among women of reproductive age (WRA) in Tanzania. Objective: We described WRA's nutritional status by socio-demographic factors and assessed associations with diet quality. Methods: We analysed baseline data from a cluster-randomised controlled trial in Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions (n=2,415). Diet was assessed using a quantitative 24-hour recall. We calculated the Global Diet Quality Score (GDQS; 0-49), with higher scores indicating healthier diet. General obesity was defined as body mass index (BMI)>=30 kg/m2; morbid obesity as BMI>=35 kg/m2; and central obesity as: waist circumference (WC)>=80 cm, WC>=88 cm, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR)>=0.85, waist-to-height ratio (WHtR)>=0.50, and WHR>=0.85 or BMI>=30 kg/m2. We tested associations between diet quality and nutritional status using generalised linear models controlling for age and sociodemographic factors and tested interactions to assess differential associations by age groups. Results: The prevalence of general obesity was 25.1%, morbid obesity 8.4%, and central obesity 48.2-71.6% depending on the definition. Mean GDQS was 20.9 (SD 3.9). General and central obesity were more prevalent among women who were older, less educated, had light physical labour occupations, were in the highest wealth quintile, and lived in more urbanised villages and in more food secure households. Higher GDQS was associated with lower risk of morbid obesity: risk ratio (RR) 0.97 (95% CI 0.94, 1.00). Higher GDQS was also associated with 0.25-0.27 kg/m2 lower BMI, 0.54-0.66 cm lower WC, and 0.53-0.58 cm lower hip circumference in women 30-49 years of age. Conclusion: Better diet quality emerged as a protective factor for morbid obesity and for other obesity measures among women 30-49 years of age. Our study suggests that interventions to improve diet quality in Tanzania should target women in their thirties and forties and those with lower physical activity and higher education, food security, and wealth to maximise effectiveness.

GCAN partner workshop: Report on lessons and recommendations for policy engagement and capacity strengthening

The Gender, Climate Change and Nutrition Integration Initiative (GCAN), led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), has been working to integrate gender, climate resilience, and nutrition considerations into policy, interventions, and research since 2016. Since 2023, the initiative has been working in five focal countries with support from the Gates Foundation.

Banking systems, capital markets, and financing the transformation of food systems: The role of macroeconomics, regulations, and incentives

Improving food systems requires significant expenditures and investments from both the public and private sector. In the case of public outlays, the decisions are taken by the government or by multilateral international organizations (with governments as their owners), while, obviously, private expenditures and investments depend on choices by the private sector. These private financial flows are guided by the decisions of consumers, producers, banking system institutions, and operators in capital markets. Public policy cannot dictate directly how those private actors act (for instance, governments cannot mandate that consumers must eat healthy diets), but it can influence those decisions through adequate macroeconomic, regulatory, and incentive frameworks. This discussion paper will focus briefly on some ideas about how those frameworks can reorient and expand current levels of funding towards food systems transformation, focusing particularly on banking systems and capital markets. First, it briefly analyzes the levels of financial flows in the banking system and capital markets. Then it looks at the role of macroeconomic policy in influencing the operations of food systems, followed by suggestions about other regulatory and incentive frameworks to create healthy, equitable, sustainable and climate-resilient food systems.

Kisan credit card and smallholder farmers’ economic performance in eastern India: A panel data analysis

Farmers in India continue to be deprived of adequate and timely institutional credit. The Kisan Credit Card (KCC) scheme, introduced in 1998, sought to address this issue by providing credit support under a single window with simplified procedure. Using a panel data of 2,586 farming households from five states in Eastern India, namely, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odisha, and West Bengal in 2018 and 2023, we examine the determinants of access to KCC and its credit limit. We also analyze the impact of KCC on farmers’ input usage, dependence on moneylenders and farm income using propensity score weighted fixed effects model which controls for selection bias and unobservable time-invariant heterogeneities. We find that farmers’ participation in agricultural training, demonstrations and development programs encourage farmers to adopt KCC. Furthermore, KCC access increases farmers’ input usage and reduces their dependence on money lenders. This evidence comes from an economically challenged region whose economy significantly depends on agriculture. The findings of the study raise concerns over the limited penetration of the scheme among smaller-scale farmers and provide key insights into the underlying issues hindering the efficacious functioning of the scheme.

Monitoring individual migration in Myanmar: December 2021 - June 2024

Drawing on data from seven rounds of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), conducted between December 2021 and June 2024 with over 12,000 respondents per round, this report examines individual migration, migration in which one or a few household members leave the household. Over the two-and-a-half-year period from December 2021 to June 2024, an estimated 9 million household members aged 15 and older—17 percent of the total population and 28 percent of the adult population—migrated from their households. During this time, the states of Kachin, Kayin, and Mon reported the highest migration rates, with over 35 percent of the adult population migrating.

In January through June 2024, nearly nine percent of households reported sending migrants. However, the proportion of individuals migrating within Myanmar for work declined, while more individuals migrated for reasons such as marriage, education, or safety. Additionally, it is estimated that six percent of households had members migrate abroad to evade conscription laws. Urban households and those in Yangon were particularly likely to send members abroad to avoid conscription.

Advancing forest-based carbon trading in Nepal: Policy challenges and agroforestry opportunities

Nepal remains among the countries most vulnerable to climate-related disasters. Although several national policy documents have emphasized the urgency of mitigation and adaptation, climate action remains fragmented and significantly underfunded. Nepal’s unique geography—spanning the Himalayas, mid-hills, and Tarai plains—together with recent decentralization reforms offers a favorable context for implementing localized, context-specific solutions to climate threats. However, the lack of consistent policy frameworks, weak institutional mechanisms, limited investment, and fragmented governance across all levels of government continue to impede progress.

In this policy note, we use carbon trading in the forestry sector as a case study to illustrate broader policy challenges and opportunities in Nepal and other Global South countries. Trading is a market-based mechanism that incentivizes the offset of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through credits for CO2 sequestration.. Nepal has adopted this approach in line with international agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. As one of the major strategies, the country has sought to capitalize on its forest resources to generate carbon credits and attract international climate finance.

Remittance trends in Myanmar: January - June 2024

Remittances have emerged as an important source of income for households in post-coup Myanmar. This paper utilizes data from the seventh and fourth rounds of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS) to analyze remittance trends between January and June 2024 with trends from July to December 2022. These two rounds are compared because they both contain detailed questions on remittances.

Between January and June 2024, 16 percent of households received remittances from at least one member who was residing overseas or in a different state or region. This comprises nine percent of households receiving remittances from migrants outside of Myanmar and eight percent of households receiving remittances from migrants within Myanmar. Around 12 percent of households received remittances from a single migrant and four percent of households received remittances from two or more members. In any three-month period between January-June 2024, more households in Kayin, Mon, and Tanintharyi received remittances than households in other states/regions.

Among households that received remittances from within Myanmar, they received an average of MMK 173,768 per month (about 49 USD). Households that received remittances from outside of Myanmar received around MMK 499,386 per month (about 141 USD), significantly higher than the amount from migrants within Myanmar. Reliance on remittances among recipients has grown since 2021. Remittances made up 33 percent of household income between September 2021 and February 2022, compared to 45 percent of household income between January and June 2024. Finally, budget share of international remittances increased from 15 percent of household income between September 2021 and February 2024 to 26 percent between April and June 2024, underscoring the growing importance of remittances from abroad for household welfare in Myanmar.

Applying an integrated engagement model to support country-led food systems transformation: Insights from the SHiFT Initiative's approach in Viet Nam, Ethiopia, and Bangladesh

From 2022-2024, the CGIAR Research Initiative on Sustainable Healthy Diets through Food Systems Transformation (SHiFT) combined high-quality nutritional and social science research with development and policy partnerships to generate innovative food systems solutions that contributed to sustainable healthy diets. Through a country-led approach, SHiFT supported the design and implementation of national food systems transformation activities in Viet Nam, Ethiopia, and Bangladesh, aiming to achieve sustainable healthy diets while also working toward improved livelihoods, gender equity, and social inclusion. Following the 2021 United Nations Food Systems Summit (UNFSS), countries were encouraged to define pathways for transforming their food systems to align with the 2030 Agenda and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).2 Many countries have since developed national action plans to operationalize these pathways, requiring coordinated multisectoral efforts. SHiFT contributed to this process by generating evidence and supporting national stakeholders in developing context-specific food systems solutions. This brief introduces SHiFT’s country engagement strategy and explains how SHiFT supported collaborative pathways and processes in each target country during its initial phase. Consumers and Food Environments, Area of Work 1 in the new CGIAR Science Program on Better Diets and Nutrition, will build upon the SHiFT approach starting in 2025 through 2030.

Developing a regional cooperation strategy for scaling up climate-smart agriculture in South Asia

Climate change being a global environmental problem, a cooperative approach involving all the sovereign countries is required to achieve an optimal solution. Caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere, including carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and hydrofluorocarbons, climate change has global effects that are independent of the geographical sources of these emissions. However, the adverse impacts of global warming and extreme weather events associated with climate change are not uniformly distributed, as vulnerable populations in less-developed countries bear the brunt of the damage. Some of these climate-vulnerable nations contribute less than 1 per cent of global GHG emissions, including Bhutan (0.0057%), Sri Lanka (0.072%), Nepal (0.105%), and Bangladesh (0.522%) in South Asia.

Development readiness

Why do some systems move while others stall—even when resources, plans, and intent appear similar? This paper introduces the concept of development readiness as one way to understand and address this question. Development readiness is defined as the capacity of a system to act—at the right time, at the right scale, and with purpose—whether in response to crises or in pursuit of development goals. It emerges when kinetic capacity (the ability to move people, goods, and services) aligns with negotiation capacity (the ability to coordinate, decide, and resolve), conditioned by activation costs (tangible and intangible obstacles) and option value (flexibility to act under uncertainty). A conceptual framework based on these four operational forces is set out and illustrated with real-world examples. A structured research agenda and strategy emerges, along with implications for investment and operations. The case illustrations demonstrate that the development readiness framework applies equally at national, sectoral, and organizational levels, with wide-ranging applications—from scaling innovations, accelerating service delivery, and strengthening value chains, to deepening climate resilience and enabling coordinated action in crisis-prone and institutionally fragmented settings.

Integrated land systems for sustainable food production and biodiversity conservation in the semi-arid to moist tropics: Stakeholder perspectives from Andhra Pradesh, India

Land systems must urgently be transformed for social and environmental sustainability, which necessitates a better integration of food system and biodiversity governance. This is particularly pronounced in the south-Indian state Andhra Pradesh, where one of the largest agroecological transitions globally, namely Zero Budget Natural Farming (ZBNF), is currently underway, but involvement of conservation scientists and practitioners has been minimal and policy spheres are disjunct. Here, we report the results of a multi-stakeholder exercise to ascertain the multi-scalar and multi-institutional transformations needed for Andhra Pradesh ‘s landscapes to deliver both food and biodiversity targets. To achieve a vision of an equitable and sustainable food system and of multifunctional and nature-positive land systems, we advocate for an end to harmful subsidies, improvements in infrastructures and social organisations, dietary shifts, and creation of both supporting financial structures and sustainable and transparent value chains. We stress that approaches should be participatory and link across policy domains and scales, bridging bottom-up and top-down perspectives, and with spatial planning critical to balancing land system objectives. Specifically, we stress that the ZBNF transition needs to be better aligned with state-level conservation strategies to maximise biodiversity benefits. Top priority knowledge needs include quantifying the multidimensional performance and scaling-potential of agroecological systems, the effectiveness of different conservation interventions, and how different land system objectives trade off against each other. Our work highlights a lack of data and capacity sharing, which can be addressed through intersectoral partnerships and collaborative programmes to create effective, research-based policies and land management strategies.

Forest loss in Malawi: how having women at the table affected debates and decisions about solutions – research

Around the world, climate change is being tackled, not just in parliaments and global summits, but also in villages and farming communities. In these local spaces, lives and livelihoods depend directly on natural resources, and decisions are often made in groups.

Globally, including women in action against climate change is seen as crucial. Especially in rural agricultural settings, women bear a substantial burden from the warming planet. But there has been little research on whether simply having more women involved in climate action changes the decisions taken by communities to combat global warming – or whether it matters.

Designing and implementing experiments within local bureaucratic systems: A cautionary tale from an educator incentive program

What Do We Know About the Future of Food Systems?

Physicochemical characteristics of whole wheat flour fortified with four different levels of Tricalcium Phosphate

Introduction: Dietary calcium intakes have been reported to be lower than recommended intakes in women and adolescents. This essential nutrient has not received adequate attention at the population level. Food fortification, particularly of staples can help bridge the gap between requirement and customary intakes, without altering diet patterns.
Aim/Objectives: This study aimed to fortify wheat flour to increase calcium content, using four levels of Tri Calcium Phosphate (TCP), to determine the optimum level, based on physicochemical characteristics.
Methods: Wheat flour was fortified with four levels of TCP such that 150g of flour would provide 200mg, 300 mg, 400 mg or 500 mg. Physicochemical properties (Water absorption capacity, swelling power, swelling volume, solubility index, bulk density, solvent retention capacity, particle size) were analyzed in fortified and unfortified flour samples.
Results: Fortified flours had lower water absorption capacity than unfortified wheat flour (p<0.000). The solubility index (p<0.000) for fortified flours was 1-5% lower than the unfortified flour. Bulk density for all flours was 0.40- 0.42 g/ml. Particle size (p<0.000) and water retention increased with increasing amount of TCP. Overall, the physicochemical characteristics of the fortified samples did not differ from the unfortified wheat flour. Thus, the fortified wheat flour could be used in various processed foods. Conclusions: This is one of the few studies to have attempted fortifying wheat flour to provide about 50% of the EAR from 150g of wheat flour. The study showed that TCP addition did not adversely affect physicochemical characteristics, making it a suitable fortificant for wheat flour.

Coping with crisis: Livelihood vulnerabilities and food insecurity in Sudan’s current conflict

Sudan’s conflict, reignited in April 2023, represents not just a military contest between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), but a total systemic collapse that has engulfed governance, infrastructure, markets, and public services. This conflict did not arise in a vacuum. Sudan has long faced structural vulnerabilities including weak institutions, a fragile economy, and climate-related stressors such as erratic rainfall and land degradation. The war, however, accelerated these pre-existing fault lines into a full-blown crisis.

Key urban economies such as Khartoum have been devastated by airstrikes and sieges, while transport corridors and trade routes have been severed. Local governance structures in many regions have been displaced or dissolved, leaving civilians without recourse to basic services or protection. Simultaneously, the banking sector has fractured, disrupting remittances, cash transfers, and supply chains across the country. Insecurity has driven over 12.8 million people from their homes – 8.6 million internally and 3.9 million seeking refuge neighboring countries, as of May 2025 (UNHCR, 2025).

What do we know about the future of water in food systems?

Demand is growing while supply is uncertain: Globally, the demand for water in agriculture and food systems is growing, alongside competing needs in other sectors. Freshwater consumption is projected to increase by 17 percent between 2020 and 2050, most of it for irrigation, and almost all of it in low- and middle-income countries. At the same time, water availability is becoming increasingly uncertain due to climate extremes, long-term climate change, pollution, and land use changes such as deforestation and wetland degradation. The rising variability and scarcity contribute to competition among different water users.

The water supply-demand gap must be addressed: As the gap between water supply and demand increases, both tested and new technologies, policies, and institutions are needed to improve water productivity and efficiency. At the same time, more research is needed to identify solutions that mitigate the negative impacts of water shortages, pollution, and poor water management on food systems as well as to curb the adverse impacts arising from inefficient and wasteful food systems on water resources and the environment. Agriculture and food systems drive many of the pressures on freshwater ecosystems. According to the IUCN Red List, 25 percent of freshwater species are threatened with extinction (IUCN 2024). This loss of biodiversity threatens not only the species themselves but also the vital services they and their ecosystems provide to humanity.

With water a connector across sectors, new approaches to management are critical: With rising water scarcity, decisions in areas such as climate, nutrition, energy, and trade policy will increasingly shape the future of water in food systems. To improve water management in food systems, a more integrated, forward-looking approach is needed that considers the broader implications of policies and investments across multiple sectors. In addition, strengthening governance and institutions and empowering farmers, as key stewards of water resources, are essential for sustainable outcomes.

What do we know about the future of the environment and biodiversity in relation to food systems?

The environment’s proper functioning is essential for a better life on Earth, including maintaining, enhancing, and restoring biodiversity and ecosystem services. While the environment is driven by external factors and shocks as well as interventions within the global food system, it simultaneously drives the overall health and stability of the planet. This relationship involves complex interactions and tipping points, which foresight research needs to capture in analyzing alternative future pathways for food system transformation.

A sustainable and resilient environment requires holistic approaches, strategies, and policies to address environmental stresses and promote conservation, regeneration, and coexistence with nature. These include practices that respect ecological boundaries, reduce resource consumption and conflict, foster biodiversity, and enhance ecosystem recovery and adaptability. Foresight research is essential to help decision-makers understand synergies and trade-offs between long-term public goods benefits and short-term private costs from resource use and management.

Addressing food systems challenges — including root causes of environmental degradation and biodiversity loss — requires sustainable land and soil management, conservation efforts, and food production practices, in addition to economic viability and social inclusion. Foresight analysis can help policymakers, communities, and industries make informed decisions and prioritize and deploy effective and holistic strategies at the biodiversity-climate-society nexus.

What do we know about the future of agrobiodiversity in relation to food systems?

Agrobiodiversity — the diversity of living organisms that underpin agricultural systems — provides numerous critical benefits, from on-farm crop diversity and genetic resources that allow farmers to adapt crops to changing environments to the provision of ecosystem services such as pollination, disease and pest resistance, soil health, and water conservation. These benefits in turn support resilient livelihoods, food security, and diversified, nutritious diets.

A number of ex ante theoretical and practical approaches have been used to show how greater agricultural biodiversity is connected to higher production and lower risk exposure, and to assess the role that agrobiodiversity plays in supporting agricultural systems resilience. But little has been done to integrate the measurement of agrobiodiversity into foresight modeling, or to apply foresight tools and methods to study long-term effects of agrobiodiversity on socioeconomic or environmental outcomes.

The recent development of the Agrobiodiversity Index and advances in integrated modeling systems provide opportunities for improved scenario analysis focused on agrobiodiversity and informed by agroecology and agricultural economics theory.