IFPRI Datasets

Tajikistan Rural Household Survey (TRHS) 2025

The Tajikistan Rural Household Survey (TRHS) is a survey data collection effort led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Tajik Academy of Agricultural Sciences (TAAS). It is an ambitious attempt to generate data critical to filling pertinent evidence gaps on the livelihoods and the resilience of rural households in Tajikistan. The TRHS interviewed 3,267 households in the country's three most populated regions (Sughd Region, Khatlon Region, and Districts of Republic Subordination).

The in-person household survey includes a household-level questionnaire that was administered to any knowledgeable adult household member. An accompanying individual-level questionnaire was administered in private to one randomly selected household member, aged 18 to 54 years old. In households were no adult was present in the specified age range, another household member 55 years or older was allowed to respond to the individual-level questionnaire. The dataset also consists of a brief enumerator survey.

The effect of teacher training and community literacy programming on teacher and student outcomes

Motivated by extremely low levels of basic reading skills in sub-Saharan Africa, we experimentally evaluate two interventions designed to enhance students’ early-grade literacy performance in rural Mozambique: a relatively light-touch, scalable teacher training in early-grade literacy including the provision of pedagogical materials, and teacher training and materials in conjunction with community-level reading camps. Using data from 1,596 third graders in 160 rural public primary schools, we find no evidence that either intervention improved teachers’ pedagogical knowledge or practices or student or teacher attendance following two years of implementation. There are some weak positive effects on student reading as measured by a literacy assessment, primarily observed in a shift away from scores of zero, and these effects are consistent across arms. Our findings are aligned with the growing consensus that more intensive school- and/or community-based interventions are required to meaningfully improve learning.

Agricultural technology adoption and deforestation: Evidence from a randomized control trial

We study the effect of the adoption of improved agricultural inputs on deforestation using a randomized control trial in Nigeria which introduced a more efficient and environmentally-friendly nitrogen fertilizer. We combine survey data from the intervention with earth observation data to develop a generalizable method for evaluating the effects of cluster-level interventions on landscape-level outcomes. We find evidence of an intensification response to treatment exposure that reflects significant heterogeneity across land cover. On land with relatively sparse pre-intervention tree cover, treatment exposure increased deforestation while in denser forest areas the intervention reduced deforestation. We find corresponding effects showing treatment exposure increases agricultural productivity. Our results reflect an intensification response to improved agricultural technology that redirects agricultural activity away from forests and towards existing cropland.

Understanding social safety nets and intra-household food allocation: Experimental evidence from Bangladesh

Evidence shows that social protection can improve diets, but little is known about how impacts vary within households, the extent to which the modality of the transfer affects how it is distributed across all household members, whether adding training on the importance of nutrition and diets alters the way transfer resources are allocated within the household, relative to a transfer alone, and if differences in allocations are shaped by differences in livelihood opportunities. We use individual food intake data from two randomized control trials fielded in rural Bangladesh to address these questions. Our results overwhelmingly demonstrate that food gains are distributed equally, regardless of the type of transfers households received (cash, food, or combination), inclusion of nutrition training, regional context, or specific dietary outcome measured. These patterns of findings hold when we consider several extensions: (1) analyzing more aggregated demographic groups; (2) considering alternative measures of diet; (3) analyzing shares rather than levels; (4) considering impacts relative to deprivation at baseline; (5) analyzing impacts on non-food outcomes that can be assigned demographically; (6) re-estimating impacts using alternate samples and alternate estimation models. Where the few significant differences are found, they are often small in magnitude and in favor of children.

The effect of using indigenous and scientific forecasts on arable farmers’ crop yields: Evidence from Rwenzori region, western Uganda

Transfers, information and management advice: Direct effects and complementarities in Malawi

We examine a program designed to alleviate credit, information, and farm management constraints among smallholder cash crop farmers through transfers and a cross-randomized program offering intensive agricultural extension. We document strong complementarities between the two sets of interventions. Investment driven by increased labor expenditures, production, and consumption are highest for farmers that received both transfers and intensive extension, a pattern that persists two and three years later. In the short run, transfers alone led to the reallocation of input expenditures into increased labor for cash crop cultivation, which led to increased production of project focal crops but not total crop production. While farmers in the transfers only group continue to spend more on labor in subsequent seasons, this does not lead to changes in production or consumption, suggesting that the support of the intensive extension was important for the generation of the largest welfare gains from the transfers.

Increasing women’s empowerment: Evaluating two interventions in Uganda

We conduct a randomized controlled trial to test a novel intervention for increasing women’s empowerment in Uganda. The intervention includes a within-household transfer of a productive asset, which has a lower cost than an external transfer. We find that transferring control of some of the household’s sugarcane to the wife significantly increases her access to resources and decision-making power. We also document increases in women’s empowerment arising from a cross-randomized couples’ workshop that improved women’s self-concept and shifted beliefs in gender equality. We find no additional impacts from combining the two interventions. Importantly, neither intervention harms the household’s productivity or husbands’ welfare. In fact, men (and women) report higher marital quality and life satisfaction as a result. However, despite increasing women’s empowerment we find no evidence that the interventions increased measured household investment in food security, child health, or education.

How much do our neighbors really know? The limits of community-based targeting

Social assistance programs in developing countries often rely on local community members to identify potential beneficiaries. As community members may observe neighbors’ welfare, their reports may capture transitory shocks better than the proxies typically observable by a centralized policy implementer. To test this, we conduct a lab-style experiment in Central Java, in which participants rank other community members’ welfare, using benchmarks that vary in sensitivity to transitory shocks, and target small cash transfers. We find little evidence that community-held welfare information better reflects transitory shocks and find that targeting decisions mostly depend on perceived differences in overall wealth.

JEL Codes: O12, I32, D83

Constraints and promising interventions to strengthen fish seed systems in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Ghana

CONTEXT
Aquaculture has surpassed capture fisheries in terms of production and is among the fastest growing food sectors. It has great potential to contribute to food security and nutrition, poverty reduction, jobs, and environmental sustainability. Fish seed is increasingly considered to be a major driver and disabler of aquaculture development. However, little is known about how fish seed systems operate, their challenges and opportunities, or entry points for strengthening them.
OBJECTIVE
This study analyzes primary data on the challenges and opportunities faced by various actors along the fish seed chain, documents the lessons from a fish seed project (Ghana Tilapia Seed Project, 2019–2022), and provides an analysis of entry points for strengthening fish seed systems.
METHODS
Using an analytical framework that tracks germplasm base, seed production and quality, seed availability and distribution, and the information flow along the fish seed value chain, we analyze the case of Ghana, the top producer of farmed tilapia in sub-Saharan Africa. The study uses a mixed-methods approach, including value chain analysis, action-oriented research methods, and statistical analysis of survey data.
RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
Findings indicate that the initial rapid growth in tilapia production in Ghana was partly due to an improved local strain released in 2004; however, the recent stagnation is largely caused by seed-related issues (poor maintenance and improvement of germplasm base, seed quality and availability, lack of information and coordination, and lack of enforcement of regulations). This study highlights the successes and lessons learned from the Ghana Tilapia Seed Project on broodstock distribution, training on fingerling production, establishment of nurseries, and training of fish farmers. The lessons highlight the need for policy changes and capacity building related to strain development and broodstock management.
SIGNIFICANCE
These findings fill the large gap in evidence on the functioning of fish seed systems and how to strengthen them. They can directly inform ongoing country-level efforts and programs aiming to develop aquaculture.

Gendered networks and demand for an agricultural technology in India

Studies on social learning and technology adoption often only consider the networks of a single individual in a household as a source of information influencing agricultural production decisions. We test the validity of this assumption by examining the role of men’s and women’s social networks in the adoption of a novel water-saving technology, laser land leveling (LLL), in India. Using network data from men and women in the same household, we test the influence of being connected to an adopter on demand for LLL. We identify the causal gender-specific network effects using a field experiment that combines an auction with a lottery for the technology, making the presence of adopters in networks exogenous. The data reveal that men’s and women’s networks vary in size and show little overlap. We find that whereas household demand for LLL increases when men are linked to an LLL-adopting household, it decreases when the network linkages run through women. These gender-differentiated effects are concentrated in households where the woman’s opinion about the technology is valued by the man and in non-poor households. The results highlight that social learning may interact with the socio-demographic characteristics of households in myriad ways to influence household technology adoption decisions, and that agricultural-based information interventions ought to also consider how information gets used in the household.

JEL classification: D13; Q12; Q16

COVID-19 and rural livelihoods: Lessons from a longer-term assessment and the path to recovery

The COVID-19 pandemic had profound effects on livelihoods across rural populations worldwide. Building on earlier work that examined the initial effects of the pandemic on food security and nutrition among smallholder agricultural households in the Western Highlands of Guatemala, this study offers a longer-term assessment of the impacts and the path to recovery. We rely on a unique longitudinal survey of 1,262 households conducted over four rounds between 2019 and 2022, with the first round in person and the subsequent ones by phone. The results show substantial recoveries in food security and dietary diversity in the region by mid-2022 compared to 2020, but at levels still worse than pre-pandemic ones for some indicators. There is also a sustained increase in the intention to emigrate. The households that were initially more affected in terms of food security and nutrition but recovered faster include those located in one of the three studied departments and families living above the poverty line, while smallholders affected by hurricanes, non-coffee producers, and indigenous populations took longer to recover. We additionally provide quantitative estimates for a subsample of households interviewed in person during a fifth survey round at the end of 2022, showing an average decline of about 16 percent in total household income three years after the start of the pandemic, mainly driven by a decrease in agricultural income, combined with a 26-percent increase in expenditures and an important surge in indebtedness. Overall, the study offers valuable lessons regarding the recovery of vulnerable households following a major global crisis and in a context of additional shocks.

Estimating multidimensional development resilience

Existing measures of resilience are typically based on a single well-being indicator. This is problematic in contexts where households face deprivations across multiple dimensions. We develop a multidimensional resilience measure, integrating probabilistic moment-based resilience measurement approaches with multidimensional poverty measurement methods. Applying these to household panel data from Ethiopia, we show that univariate and multidimensional resilience measures based on expenditure-based poverty, dietary diversity, and livestock asset holdings can yield varied inferences on the ranking of households as well as potential impact of development interventions. Univariate resilience measures constructed using consumption expenditure, dietary diversity and livestock asset holdings show distinct temporal and spatial distributional patterns. But while univariate measures are weakly correlated with one another and with different well-being metrics, multivariate measures exhibit much stronger rank correlations. When we contrast univariate measures of resilience to multidimensional measures of resilience, we find that the latter vary less over the study period; multidimensional resilience measures seem to capture more “persistent or structural” vulnerability and associated capacity of households. We also demonstrate the differences in these univariate and multivariate measures, including the potential of the composite multidimensional resilience measures for supporting targeting processes.

How can anticipatory action programming support women? Application of the reach-benefit-empower-transform framework in Nepal and Nigeria

Agricultural mechanization

Imperfect competition and asymmetric welfare effects of global price and productivity shocks: a CGE model analysis for Senegal

This article investigates the asymmetric effects of global price and productivity shocks on welfare in the context of imperfect competition. The primary objective is to understand how market concentration affects the transmission of economic shocks and their impacts on various households. A CGE model, calibrated on a 2014 social accounting matrix for Senegal, is used. The model features a trading sector operating under a Cournot oligopoly with increasing returns to scale. Two scenarios are simulated: a 15% increase in global import prices and a 10% increase in agricultural productivity, each considering different levels of market concentration. The findings reveal that higher global import prices reduce household well-being, a situation exacerbated by low market competition. In contrast, agricultural productivity gains enhance well-being, with these benefits amplified by greater competition. However, the wealthiest households in Dakar benefit from low competition due to their positions in oligopolistic companies. To maximize household well-being, economic policies should focus on strengthening market competition, particularly in the trading sector. Actions such as reducing entry barriers for new businesses and regulating anti-competitive practices can help mitigate the adverse effects of global price increases and amplify the benefits of agricultural productivity gains.

Understanding spatial heterogeneity of hidden hunger in Senegal

Using household consumption data collected in 2017/18, this paper analyzes patterns of urban and rural food consumption in Senegal. We adopt two methodological approaches: an in-depth (spatial) profiling of current diets and corresponding nutrient intakes and an application of the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS). Our findings indicate that Senegal is a typical case of micronutrient deficiency, especially regarding calcium, iron, and vitamin B12. Due to their higher income status and better food access, urban dwellers on average have a more diversified diet with higher nutrient intakes compared to their rural counterparts, especially regarding calcium, vitamin B12, and vitamin A. While the country’s food system in general is unable to assure a nutritious diet for all, the most remote rural departments in Senegal, such as Saraya and Podor, display the highest nutrient deficiencies and therefore should be targeted with priority. Apart from geographical targeting and given their higher responsiveness to price and income changes, policies based on food pricing and income transfers should be implemented to ensure a minimal nutrient intake among the most food-insecure households. These policies could be further complemented with behavioral change campaigns to promote an alternative set of nutrient-rich and cost-effective food items.

Step by step to higher yields? Adoption and impacts of a sequenced training approach for climate-smart coffee production in Uganda

Climate change further exacerbates sustainability challenges in coffee cultivation. Addressing these requires effective delivery mechanisms for sustainable farming practices, particularly in smallholder contexts. We assess a novel public-private extension approach in Uganda, called Stepwise, comprising a sequence of climate-smart and good agricultural practices in four incremental steps. Using a mixed-method approach, an index that captures adoption intensity rather than binary uptake, and survey data from 915 Robusta and Arabica coffee farmers, we find adoption levels around 46% and relatively uniform amongst treated, spillover and comparison farmers. Regional variations suggest differing benefits across coffee varieties. Qualitative findings identify barriers to adoption, including financial and labour constraints, suboptimal training delivery, and input and output market imperfections. Despite relatively low uptake, adoption of more than half of the Stepwise practices is associated with substantial gains: inverse probability weighted regression adjustment reveals a 23% increase in yield and a 32% increase in revenue. Our findings add to the adoption literature, which often highlights limited uptake, and have important policy implications. Strengthening producer organizations, delivering targeted training but also innovative solutions for access to inputs and fair pricing, hold considerable potential to increase the adoption of climate-smart practices, particularly among resource-constrained farmers.

Whole maize flour could enhance food and nutrition security in Malawi

Maize is the staple cereal in Malawi, with a daily per capita consumption of 383 g (dry matter basis), primarily consumed in the form of nsima, a thick porridge. We combined a milling experiment with focus group discussions (FGDs) to provide insights into mass and nutrient losses during maize grain dehulling and maize flour consumption patterns in rural Malawi. Milling batches (30 kg) of four maize grain varieties were dehulled at three abrasive disk dehullers under controlled conditions. The impact of maize variety and dehuller design on mass and nutrient losses during dehulling was statistically significant (p < 0.05), with a mean mass loss of 28.1 ± 5.7%, and nutrient losses of 9.8 ± 1.9% for protein, 61.7 ± 2.0% for zinc, and 47.7 ± 3.6% for iron. Six FGDs conducted in rural areas of Lilongwe District revealed a preference for refined flour due to convenience and cultural norms, despite the nutritional benefits of whole grain flour, which was recognized for its ability to provide satiety, particularly during periods of maize scarcity. Participants also highlighted switching between flour types based on seasonal maize availability, social stigma associated with whole grain flour, and awareness of nutrient losses during dehulling. Given Malawi’s precarious food insecurity situation, transitioning from dehulled maize flour nsima to whole maize flour or less refined nsima, is imperative. Our study findings can have food and nutritional savings for other southern Africa countries where the dehulling is a common practice.

How social norms influence processes of change related to an economic intervention in Bangladesh

Intimate partner violence (IPV) occurs due to multiple factors at the individual, relational, community and societal levels. Previous research has shown that a cash, food and behaviour change communication programme called the Transfer Modality Research Initiative (TMRI) implemented from 2012 to 2014 in Bangladesh had sustained effects on IPV. We collected qualitative data among former TMRI participants in 2023 that allows exploring how social norms may have played a role in shaping the changes related to IPV along four pathways through which TMRI influenced IPV: 1) economic security, 2) family relationships, 3) women’s empowerment, and 4) social support and community relationships. We conducted nine focus group discussions (FGDs) with 49 women TMRI participants, nine FGDs with 52 husbands of women TMRI participants, 54 in-depth interviews (IDIs) with women TMRI participants, and 10 IDIs with women who did not participate in TMRI. We find: along 1) women’s economic contributions may facilitate weakening of IPV norms, however norms on gender roles and seclusion constrain change; along 2) norms related to family reputation could influence IPV condemnation, however norms on female submission and obedience to in-laws constrain change; along 3) norms on female submission constrain female empowerment but could be weakened if women display knowledge aligning with gender roles; and, along 4) linkages to reduced IPV were less clear, with female seclusion norms constraining change, highlighting the importance of group activities. Our findings draw attention to the potential for economic interventions layered with context-specific norms interventions to achieve longer-term changes in IPV and gender inequalities.

Does small-scale irrigation affect women’s time allocation? Insights from Ethiopia

Small-scale irrigation (SSI) interventions have received increasing attention as a potential pathway for women’s empowerment in sub-Saharan Africa. One key aspect of women’s empowerment that SSI can influence is women’s time burden. Hypothesized benefits of SSI for women are less energy exertion and reduced labor in agriculture. Yet, these hypotheses have not been tested empirically. We explore how household adoption of different SSI technologies affects the time allocation of women in the household, using two rounds of intrahousehold panel survey data from Ethiopia. Two different approaches are used to address potential endogeneity issues related to time-constant and time-varying factors that may be correlated with both SSI and time use: an instrumental variables-correlated random effects approach and a fractional multinomial logit-correlated random effects with control function approach. The results suggest that household use of SSI in general is associated with an increase in women’s leisure time. The results further suggest that household use of motor pumps is associated with an increase in women’s leisure time and reductions in the time they spend on farming and personal care. Given that women often provide the labor for irrigation using manual, labor-intensive methods, such as watering cans, buckets, or hand- or foot-powered treadle pumps, the results suggest that SSI using motorized methods has the potential to free up women’s time in farming and enable more leisure time. These findings have broad implications for women’s empowerment and labor allocation. Future research using new and more comprehensive data could explore the mechanisms for the findings in this study and determine if SSI enables women to improve their ability to allocate their time to activities they prefer.

Rice milling and parboiling trade-offs for economic and nutritional gains with special attention to sub-Saharan Africa: A comprehensive review

Rice is an important source of calories and nutrients for people in low- and middle-income countries. In the quest to respond to consumer preferences and attract premium prices, paddy processors increase the degree of milling (polishing), largely affecting nutritional composition and economic value of milled rice. Milling and parboiling are crucial unit processing operations affecting the quality profile of rice. The literature poorly reports on milling and parboiling operations that provide economic and nutritional gains or losses. Thus, there are no standard milling and parboiling regimes recommended to influence technological and policy changes in favor of public health and nutrition. In this comprehensive review, rice milling and parboiling operations associated with nutritional, economic, food safety and environmental benefits have been presented and discussed. Optimal milling and parboiling strategies that provide nutritional, economic, food safety and environmental gains are proposed as alternatives to conventional processing technologies and practices. Improved parboiling and moderate degree of milling in two-stage systems appear to provide better economic and nutritional benefits.

Integrating carbon sequestration and yield optimization in Indian cropping systems

Agriculture contributes significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but also holds strong potential for mitigation – particularly through soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration. This study evaluates the impact of integrated management practices—such as biochar application, optimized irrigation, and fertilizer management on yield improvement and SOC sequestration in semi-arid regions of Maharashtra, India. Using APSIM simulations across five districts and diverse cropping systems, it compares these practices with conventional farming. Results indicate that integrated practices consistently improve yields, SOC levels, and economic viability. For instance, maize yields under integrated practices increased by over 30 %, with substantial SOC gains. A cost-benefit analysis reveals high benefit-cost ratios, making these practices economically viable for smallholder farmers. This study highlights the transformative potential of integrated practices in addressing food security and environmental sustainability, especially in semi-arid regions. Policy recommendations include subsidizing biochar, promoting precision irrigation technologies, and integrating SOC sequestration strategies into national climate action plans. These findings provide actionable insights for scaling sustainable agricultural practices in resource-constrained settings.
Previous article in

The characteristics of community seed schemes for grains and legumes: Insights from northern Nigeria

CONTEXT
Despite the significant roles that intermediary seed systems play in the supply of quality seed in developing countries, including Africa South of the Sahara, the knowledge gap remains generally substantial regarding the general characteristics and seed quality assurance performance of intermediary seed systems like community seed schemes (CSS), which still predominantly operate outside the formal seed systems.

OBJECTIVE
We aim to narrow the knowledge gap on seed production practices implemented by CSS and their economic characteristics, the extent of seed quality assurance achieved, and potential challenges CSS is facing.

METHODS
Using primary survey data of seed producers of key grains (maize, rice, and sorghum) and legumes (cowpea and soybean) from 380 CSS in Kano state in northern Nigeria, we qualitatively assess seed production characteristics, financial structures of their seed production, aspects of quality assurance measures they engage, and potential roles of external support like training on their implementation of these quality assurance measures.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
We discovered that many of the interviewed CSS have emerged endogenously, taking up seed production to address the challenges in access to quality seed in their locality. Their seed production has often grown into viable businesses that have provided potentially significant additions to their incomes. Oftentimes, these CSS implemented some seed quality assurance measures, including making closer visual checks of seed, checking germination rates, and bagging/packing seed, among others. However, fuller seed quality assurance may be significantly skill-intensive, and most CSS still do not implement many of the recommended measures under some of the intermediary quality assurance standards like quality declared seed. Our qualitative assessment suggests that future support for CSS can focus on technical support to raise the ability to engage in broader categories of quality assurance activities in financially viable ways and to improve the awareness and knowledge of different varieties and access to early generation seed.

SIGNIFICANCE
The quality assurance provided by existing community seed schemes in Nigeria may be relatively limited, particularly in terms of proper maintenance of seed production field and the quality of original varieties that they intend to multiply. Providing external support through training and technical assistance may be an effective way to transform community seed schemes into critical providers of seed quality assurance in intermediary seed systems and fill gaps in the formal seed system.

Buyer-side gender discrimination in bargaining: Evidence from seed sales in Uganda

Haggling over prices is a common feature of economic transactions in many societies. This study examines whether the gender of the seller influences buyers’ negotiation strategies and outcomes in bilateral price bargaining. Using a bargaining experiment in eastern Uganda, we analyze interactions between smallholder maize farmers and either a male or female seed seller. Our findings reveal that buyers negotiating with female sellers are less likely to accept the initial offer price and respond with lower counter-bids compared to those bargaining with male sellers. Negotiations also last, on average, one round longer when the seller is a woman, and final transaction prices are nearly 9 percent lower. These results are particularly relevant for rural economies, where restrictive gender norms limit women’s financial autonomy. Given that small agribusinesses often provide one of the few viable income-generating opportunities for women, gender biases in market interactions can have substantial implications for economic empowerment and household welfare.

A measure of industrial clustering: Considering relatedness and scale

JEL codes: L10; L50; L60

Ultra-poor Graduation Midline Survey in Somalia, 2023

This dataset comes from the midline survey of a randomized impact evaluation of the Ultra-Poor Graduation (UPG) Model implemented by World Vision Somalia in internally displaced persons (IDP) camps in Baidoa, Somalia. The UPG program supports extremely vulnerable households through a combination of cash transfers, savings groups, productive asset or skills training, and life-skills coaching.

The midline survey, conducted from July 22 to August 7, 2023, followed up with households to assess progress toward improved food security, household consumption, and asset accumulation, along with secondary outcomes on financial inclusion, income generation, consumption patterns, social cohesion, and locus of control.

Eligible households were identified using a vulnerability assessment based on the Household Hunger Scale and length of residence in the IDP site. Of 6,323 eligible households, 5,000 were enrolled, and 4,116 households (2,872 treatment and 1,244 control) were included in the evaluation. The evaluation survey tracks approximately 4,000 households over three years (2022â 2024) to assess how effectively the UPG model reduces poverty and strengthens resilience in an urban humanitarian context.

Ultra-poor Graduation Endline Survey in Somalia, 2024

This dataset comes from the endline survey of a randomized impact evaluation of the Ultra-Poor Graduation (UPG) Model implemented by World Vision Somalia in internally displaced persons (IDP) camps in Baidoa, Somalia. The UPG program supports extremely vulnerable households through a combination of cash transfers, savings groups, productive asset or skills training, and life-skills coaching. The endline survey, conducted from September 27 to October 20, 2024, collected follow-up data to assess final program outcomes on food security, household consumption, and asset accumulation, as well as financial inclusion, income generation, social cohesion, and locus of control.

Eligible households were identified through a vulnerability assessment based on the Household Hunger Scale (HHS) and length of residence in the IDP site. Of 6,323 eligible households, 5,000 were enrolled, with 4,116 households (2,872 treatment and 1,244 control) included in the evaluation sample. The survey tracks households over three years (2022–2024) to assess the UPG model's effectiveness in reducing poverty and strengthening household resilience in an urban humanitarian context.

Presentations for Empowerment in Crisis: Gender-Responsive Solutions for Fragile Food Systems

Mapping the design and implementation of seed sector regulation: The case of Rwanda

Rwanda’s seed sector is changing, with clear signs of a move towards greater responsiveness to market actors and forces and new investments in the production and distribution of improved varieties and quality seed to farmers. This study examines how the country’s legal and regulatory systems support—or constrain—the development and delivery of improved varieties and quality seed in light of these changes. Using a Regulatory Systems Mapping (RSM) approach, the study assesses four core areas of Rwanda’s seed sector: variety registration and release, early generation seed (EGS) production and distribution, seed quality assurance, and seed trade. The analysis integrates stakeholder perspectives from across the public and private sectors, highlighting critical implementation bottlenecks, institutional coordination gaps, and areas where laws diverge from practice. Findings show that while Rwanda has made significant strides in advancing a market-oriented vision for its seed sector and aligning with regional frameworks such as the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), systemic issues persist, including limited clarity on appeals processes, underdeveloped quality control infrastructure, and insufficient support for private sector breeding and farmer-based enterprises. The study offers targeted, time-bound recommendations for improving regulatory effectiveness, promoting inclusive participation (especially by women and farmer groups), and operationalizing flexibilities that suit Rwanda’s seed sector. By focusing on both regulatory design and implementation realities, this work aims to support ongoing policy reform and investment efforts in Rwanda’s seed sector.

Food systems in conflict-prone and climate-affected areas of Northern Nigeria: Humanitarian and development challenges

Protracted conflict and climate shocks have profoundly disrupted food systems in northern Nigeria, yet little empirical evidence exists on how these shocks shape the functioning of the region’s food system (production, transportation, value addition, and trade). This study addresses this evidence gap by combining GIS-based mapping, cost structure analysis, and investment opportunities in food production, transportation, processing, and trade in key staple commodities across conflict-prone and climate-affected areas of northern Nigeria and connected market hubs. The analysis quantifies cost structures for key food supply chain actors, identifies systemic food system inefficiencies driven by conflict and climate factors, and examines how these factors undermine both commercial and humanitarian food flows. By integrating commodity-specific diagnostics with stakeholder perspectives, the study offers an evidence-based rationale for prioritizing interventions in conflict contexts. Two investment cases—on-farm storage and localized wheat milling—illustrate how targeted actions can reduce losses, enhance resilience, and create co-benefits for humanitarian operations and market recovery. By combining food-flow maps and cost structures for multiple actors along the food supply chain in a high-risk environment, and by demonstrating simplified approaches to linking empirical diagnostics with practical investment strategies, the study’s findings contribute to the literature on the functioning of food systems in conflict-prone and climate-affected contexts. In addition, the findings provide evidence to support policy changes, interventions, and investment decisions aimed at transforming food systems and addressing structural failures, while enhancing the efficacy of short-term humanitarian interventions. They also address the underlying causes of chronic food insecurity and support economic recovery in the region.

Gender, nutrition-sensitive agricultural interventions, and resilience: Evidence from rural Bangladesh

We assess whether a gender- and nutrition-sensitive agricultural interventions, fielded in rural Bangladesh, aimed at improving food production diversity enhanced resilience and whether impacts persisted post-intervention. Four years post-program, treatment arms that included both agriculture and nutrition training reduced the likelihood that households undertook more severe forms of coping strategies during the Covid-19 pandemic. There were persistent improvements in household consumption and diet quality; impacts were largest for poor but not the poorest households in our sample. Underlying these results were the long-term beneficial impacts on women’s agricultural knowledge, agency, and increased engagement in agricultural activities.

Can digital cash transfers serve those in active conflict? Evidence from a randomized intervention in Sudan

This paper evaluates the impact of digital transfers on the well-being of households grappling with active conflict in Sudan. Considering the case of Sudan, where active conflict and funding gaps continue to hamper the delivery of humanitarian services, we aim to address the following questions: (i) Can digital cash transfers improve food and nutrition security outcomes of beneficiaries in conflict-affected settings?; (ii) Can digital transfers to an other-wise inaccessible population improve subjective well-being, mental health, and stress in the face of recurrent conflicts?; and (iii) Who benefits more from digital transfers, and do the impacts of digital transfers vary depending on the size of transfers or socioeconomic characteristics of households? To address these questions, we design a randomized controlled trial (RCT) involving digital transfers of different sizes to randomly selected urban households in Sudan. Digital transfers reached nearly all targeted beneficiaries, with about a quarter of households receiving them through their friends and relatives and hence incurring some transaction fees. Overall, digital transfers mitigated deterioration in food insecurity (by 7-8 percentage points) and improved subjective well-being and mental health. Interestingly, we find that the digital transfers are more beneficial (impactful) for those grappling with active conflict. Digital transfers also appear to be less effective for poorer households and households of a larger size. These findings highlight the potential of digital transfers to support those grappling with armed conflict.

Economywide assessment of CSA interventions in building resilient agri-food systems in Rwanda

Due to its structural features, the Rwanda’s agri-food system is extremely vulnerable to the risks of climate variability. To accelerate and sustain growth in the food system, increase its resilience to shocks, and improve food security, the Rwandan government incorporated a list of climate-smart agricultural interventions into its updated Fifth Strategic Plan for Agricultural Transformation (PSTA-5) program, with ambitious, explicit targets. This paper assesses the impacts of these CSA interventions on Rwanda’s agri-food system, both with and without climate change, using historical declines in yield within agriculture as a proxy. Results show that modeled CSA practices during the PSTA-5 period (2024/25-2028/29) increase agricultural and overall GDP growth by 4.2 and 1.3 percentage points by the end of the plan period, respectively, with a long-term growth impact that stretches well beyond the plan period mainly owing to the persistent effects of irrigation and terracing. Cumulative agricultural GDP (2024/25-2028/29) would be 2.7 percent higher than the baseline outcome of no such CSA investments. We also find stronger household level effects, mainly in rural areas. Furthermore, a recurrent 1-in-5-year magnitude of climatic shock in Rwanda can cause substantial reductions in agricultural (-7.6 percent) and overall (-2.7 percent) GDP during the PSTA-5 period. The CSA interventions are impactful in minimizing the effects of climate change on the Rwandan economy.

Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report – September 2025

Rice prices in September 2025 declined nationally, falling by 8 percent year-on-year and 5 percent compared to the previous month. The decrease was driven by international market trends and downward pressure from the incoming monsoon harvest. Prices either stabilized or declined across most states and regions in the country. Export crop prices diverged, with green gram rising this year due to strong international demand, while black gram and pigeon pea declined year-on-year due to reduced demand in India. Animal-sourced food prices surged over the last year – e.g. pork rose by 55 percent – due to rising production costs, while fish prices rose amid strong export demand. Multiple risks lie ahead, including falling international rice prices, ongoing conflict, quality concerns, import restrictions, and disruptions in border trade, all of which may undermine agricultural production, farm income, and food security.

Experiential learning for groundwater governance in India study data

This data article presents a dataset developed to support a rigorous impact assessment of an experiential learning intervention aimed at enhancing groundwater governance and agricultural water management in rural Indian communities. The intervention combined collective action games, participatory planning tools, and community debriefings to promote behavioral shifts toward sustainable groundwater and surface water management. These tools are designed to support informed decision-making, foster collective action, and strengthen governance of water as a common resource. The impact evaluation follows a randomized control trial design, incorporating baseline and follow-up data from both treatment and control habitations. The dataset encompasses behavioral, social, and institutional variables collected through individual surveys, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews. The intervention and data collection took place in four districts across three Indian states, targeting communities heavily dependent on groundwater. Baseline data were gathered between November 2021 and February 2022, prior to intervention implementation, with follow-up data collected from January to June 2023. The data was collected by local trained enumerators to test the scalability of the approach. Participants were selected through stratified random sampling from a purposively defined sample frame, reflecting groundwater reliance and socioeconomic diversity. The resulting dataset comprises anonymized, structured files detailing demographic, social, agricultural, and water governance information across all study groups. The dataset’s multi-layered structure and detailed documentation enable a wide range of reuse opportunities, including replication of previous analyses, in-depth exploration of behavioral and institutional dynamics, and the advancement of novel methodological approaches in water governance research. It supports diverse research needs spanning cross-regional comparisons and policy evaluations.

The changing demographics in Nigeria’s food systems and implications for future youth engagement

Food systems (FS) are critically important for youth employment in sub-Saharan Africa. FS must grow rapidly to guarantee food and nutrition security for growing populations, provide the quantity and quality of food demanded by increased urbanization and income, and to complement technological changes in other sectors. Expansion of nonfarm components of FS also reinforces efforts to transition out of agriculture. The impact of these factors, their inevitability and amenability to policy interventions, and the extent of FS transformation needed differ across countries. Future FS also face several emerging challenges. Employment and job creation are among the areas significantly affected by FS transformation. Demographic changes that accompany expanding FS employment are also critical for gender equity and youth inclusion. The extent, speed, and complementarity of the FS transformation and increased employment also vary across countries. However, few systems are currently in place to monitor the extent of FS transformation or its interactions with other aspects of the economy.

This study explores the evolution of employment in Nigeria’s FS over the past two decades, focusing on youth and gender inclusion amid broader demographic, economic, and policy shifts. As Africa’s most populous country, Nigeria is experiencing all the factors that typically shape FS and labor markets. With the working-age population growing by nearly 90 percent between 2000 and 2023 and youth unemployment remaining high, the agrifood system (AFS) presents both a challenge and an opportunity for inclusive economic transformation.

The paper begins by situating FS as critical to Nigeria’s economy, highlighting their contributions to GDP and employment. Using national living standards survey data, it examines structural changes in employment, particularly the shift away from on-farm agricultural work toward nonfarm segments such as food processing, trade, and services. Between 2003 and 2022, agriculture’s share in total employment fell from 58 percent to 35 percent, while nonfarm AFS employment grew from 12 percent to 33 percent. Women and youth have been central to this shift, with women’s participation in nonfarm AFS increasing by 190 percent and youth participation growing by over 300 percent—growth was especially faster in trade and food manufacturing.

The analysis links these labor trends to key drivers such as economic growth, policy reforms, urbanization, and conflict. While Nigeria’s economy nearly tripled between 2000 and 2023 and poverty declined, economic gains have been uneven and fragile, particularly in the northern regions affected by insecurity. Government efforts—including the Agricultural Promotion Policy (2016-2020), National Agricultural Technology and Innovation Policy (2022-2027), and the creation of the Presidential Food Systems Coordinating Unit (2023)—signal a growing shift toward an FS approach in policy thinking. However, gaps in institutional coordination, inadequate investment in enabling infrastructure, and limited inclusion of vulnerable groups constrain the impact of these reforms.

The study concludes that Nigeria’s AFS holds potential for inclusive growth and employment generation. However, realizing this potential requires sustaining the policy focus from narrow agricultural productivity to a broader FS strategy that centers on employment quality, gender equity, youth entrepreneurship, and institutional alignment. Without such a transformation, Nigeria risks even more youth unemployment and discontent, thus missing the demographic dividend. But with targeted investments in skills, infrastructure, and policy coherence, the AFS can serve as a powerful lever for sustainable development and economic opportunity.

A good global investment for the European Commission: How investing in CGIAR reduces global poverty and benefits E.U. citizens

CGIAR investments have delivered substantial economic benefits for the E.U. while reducing global poverty and food insecurity. CGIAR has boosted productivity on E.U. farms, expanded export markets, and made food more affordable for E.U. consumers. It has also helped prevent potential damage from pests and diseases that threaten E.U. farm livelihoods. This note quantifies the benefits to farmers, exporters and consumers.

Unlock genotype-environment-management interaction via field phenotypic insights for multi-scale prediction of winter rapeseed flowering in the Yangtze River Basin

Crop yields are significantly impacted by adverse climatic events during flowering. Accurately predicting flowering periods is crucial for optimizing strategies to enhance crop yields. Previous studies used crop models to predict flowering periods, challenging due to limited sowing date data and generalizability across different cultivars and environment. In this study, plot experiments and high-throughput field phenotypes were coupled to determine the impact of genotype–environment–management interaction (G × E × M) on the flowering period of winter rapeseed in the Yangtze River Basin. The findings indicated that the pre-winter leaf area index adeptly indicated the impact of sowing dates on flowering period. The leaf color during winter distinguished the genotype effects, and the cumulative temperature between 50 and 60 days after the winter solstice (WS) was identified as the pivotal climate factor. The predictive indicators for the flowering period were referenced to the time point of the WS, alleviating the constraints of uncertain sowing dates. A combination of these indicators could be used to predict the flowering period in 24 winter rapeseed cultivars with an error of < 4 days at experimental plots across the Yangtze River Basin. Notably, the accuracy of flowering prediction model was validated on an actual farmland in Jingzhou City, aligning well with the observed flowering dynamics from satellite data. To extend the utility of the model to regional scales, distribution maps of the flowering period were generated using a linear regression model that correlated post-winter cumulative temperature with the flowering period, considering a 2.0 °C warming level by 2050 across the entire Yangtze River Basin. Results show higher temperatures or lower cumulative solar radiation during the flowering period will appear in many regions in the Yangtze River Basin. The findings of this study hold promise for aiding region-specific crop cultivation and breeding in the future.

Impact of conflict shocks on land rental market dynamics: Panel evidence from Nigeria

Access to land is crucial for transforming agri-food systems, promoting market integration, and reducing poverty in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where rural land markets are increasingly expanding. However, the escalation of violent conflicts presents serious obstacles to the effective functioning of these land rental markets and their contribution to development objectives. The study employs a household-level panel fixed effects regression model to analyze the impact of violent conflicts and institutional factors on land rental market dynamics, using georeferenced LSMS-ISA and ACLED data. Findings show that conflicts significantly reduce land rental sizes, especially for rural smallholder farmers. Additionally, the study found that institutional factors change how conflict affects land rental markets. The heterogeneous effects revealed that institutional factors reverse the impact of conflict on land rental sizes and values. Specifically, when smallholder women participate in agricultural decision-making in rural areas or when large-scale farming households have access to credit, the typically adverse effect of conflict on land markets transforms into a positive one. Thus, women’s participation in agricultural decision-making and access to formal credit play a crucial role in shaping households' ability to navigate land rental markets in conflict-affected areas. Policymakers can leverage this evidence to develop strategies that improve land access and stability in conflict-prone regions. By understanding household and market dynamics, policymakers can design more effective strategies to promote conflict-sensitive and sustainable agricultural systems and economic stability in Nigeria and other conflict-prone regions.

Food acquisition, preparation, and consumption practices in South Asia: A scoping review of assessment tools

Assessing behaviors related to food choice at individual- and household-levels is essential for improving household diets, but assessment tools are limited. We conducted a scoping review to identify gaps in existing assessment tools for food acquisition, preparation, and household consumption practices in South Asia, where diets are rapidly changing. We undertook systematic keyword searches of three databases (PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science Core Collection) to identify studies assessing food acquisition, food preparation, and household consumption practices in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, published in English between 2000 and April 2025. Two reviewers independently screened titles, abstracts, and full texts, and extracted data on study characteristics and the assessment tools used to examine the food choice behaviors. Of 13,160 unique articles identified, 50 were included for synthesis. Food acquisition behaviors (e.g., what and how often food is purchased, changes in food purchases) were assessed by 26 studies, food preparation (e.g., cooking habits, intra-household distribution of responsibilities, preparation methods) by nine studies, and household consumption practices (e.g., timing, snacking, meal skipping, eating away from the home) by 30 studies. Most studies used quantitative methods (n=34), some used qualitative methods (n=13), and few used mixed methods (n=3). Likert scales and semi-structured interviews were the most used tools for quantitative and qualitative assessments, respectively. Across the 50 studies, 40 different tools were used to assess food-related behaviors and only 14 studies claimed using validated tools. Few studies included a full tool in text or in supplemental material (n=23). Currently, there is little alignment on how to assess food choice behaviors in South Asia, highlighting the need for a contextually adaptable repository of tools. Adapting and validating existing tools, rather than creating new ones, could improve efficiency, continuity, and comparability.

Food price stabilization: Theory and lessons from experience

Farmers agronomic management responses to extreme drought and rice yields in Bihar, India

In 2022, the Indian state of Bihar experienced its sixth driest year in over a century. To document the consequences and farmer responses to the meteorological drought, real-time survey data was collected across 11 districts of Bihar. We then developed a causal machine learning model to quantify drought impacts on rice production and to characterize how access to affordable irrigation from electric pumps mitigated productivity losses. This model addresses the empirical challenge of conducting a counterfactual causal analysis when a factor like drought affects nearly all sampled farmers. In the 2022 event, drought led to rice acreage reduction, transplanting delays, damage to seedling nurseries, and higher use rates of supplemental irrigation. For fields that were planted, average yield losses from water stress were estimated as 0.94 t/ha (∼23 % yield loss) with these losses reduced by 0.3 t/ha in fields with access to electric tubewells. Agronomic management practices such as earlier transplanting were also identified as complementary strategies that increased the adaptation value of investments in irrigation. To reduce the impact of drought in Bihar, additional investments in electric irrigation infrastructure are needed along with focused extension efforts and decision support systems that empower farmers to make economically and sustainably rational use of available water resources to maintain yield and profitability.

Agricultural distortions and international migration

International migration is a recurrent phenomenon that has grown rapidly over the past two decades. This paper examines the role of agricultural distortions in shaping emigration patterns and influencing productivity and welfare in developing countries, using Guatemala as a case study. We develop a theoretical framework where household members can work in agriculture, non-agriculture, or emigrate, and calibrate the model combining detailed micro and aggregate data. Our model identifies two key channels through which agricultural distortions affect migration and productivity: a first channel where distortions increase emigration among more productive agents, reducing aggregate productivity, and a second channel where distortions drive factor misallocation, lowering incomes and increasing overall emigration. Simulations suggest that, reducing distortions in the agricultural sector to the most efficient department in each region would lower the emigrant share by 2.3 percentage points, primarily among more productive workers. Lower distortions would similarly boost aggregate agricultural productivity by 30.1% and raise welfare by 3.4%. An analysis at the sub-national level reveals that high-distortion areas are more isolated and exhibit less financial penetration and government presence.

Resilience science must-knows: Nine things every decision-maker should know about resilience

Resilience has become a central consideration across practice, policy, and business. It is increasingly integrated into public health strategies, private-sector risk management, corporate planning, development, and financial investment. This growing interest in resilience is not by chance. In recent years, the world has faced a variety of overlapping crises, from climate extremes and military conflicts to the COVID-19 pandemic and cascading disruptions in trade and food systems. Volatility is no longer an exception; it is the new norm. Decision-makers across regions and sectors urgently need clear, science-based, and actionable knowledge to maintain the resilience of people and the planet and to ensure societies have the capacity to cope, adapt, and transform in order to thrive amid uncertainty. Yet, despite a wealth of research into the science of resilience, the findings often remain complex, making them difficult to translate into actionable insights for leaders outside the scientific community. The Resilience Science Must-Knows address this challenge head-on by distilling decades of cutting-edge resilience science into nine critical Must-Knows refined through dialogue with decision-makers.

Armed conflict, community-based cash transfers, and social cohesion: Evidence from a randomized intervention in Ethiopia

Amid a surge in armed conflicts in Africa, the impact of armed conflicts on social cohesion and potential avenues to rebuild social cohesion in conflict-affected settings remain active areas of inquiry. Most importantly, identifying instruments and interventions that can effectively strengthen social cohesion in conflict-affected settings can inform and facilitate peace-building efforts. We examine whether community-based cash transfer and social protection programs can strengthen social cohesion in settings grappling with the adverse effects of armed conflict. We answer this question using the 2020 civil war in Ethiopia and combining this with a randomized community-based cash transfer program rolled out after the conflict. Exploiting temporal variation in the spread of large-scale armed conflicts (battles) across a two-wave panel survey, we show that battles are associated with a deterioration in social cohesion. Reassuringly, we demonstrate that a modestly sized community-based cash transfer can rebuild and restore social cohesion in communities grappling with armed conflict and deterioration in social cohesion. Heterogeneity analysis shows that households who belong to a minority ethnic group in each community reported a higher loss in social capital associated with their exposure to armed conflict and that the community-based cash transfer appears to be more effective in rebuilding social cohesion among these households.

Resilience in technical efficiency and enabling factors: Insights from panel farm enterprise surveys in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

The role of genotyping in measuring improved variety adoption and impact: Advances, challenges, and policy directions

Accurate measurement of agricultural technology adoption is critical for evaluating the effectiveness of investments in agricultural research and development. While household surveys have long served as the primary tool for tracking varietal adoption, growing evidence reveals systematic mismatches between self-reported and DNA verified varietal identity. These mismatches arise from distinct local and scientific varietal nomenclatures, complex seed systems, and high varietal release rates. This review examines the emerging role of genotyping, particularly DNA fingerprinting, as a complementary method for varietal identification and adoption measurement. Drawing on a growing body of studies across crops and geographies, we assess how DNA fingerprinting alters adoption estimates, reveals patterns of varietal misclassification, and enhances our understanding of seed system performance. We identify critical design considerations for implementing DNA fingerprinting at scale, including sampling strategies, reference library construction, and integration with standard household surveys. The review also highlights methodological innovations to reduce DNA fingerprinting costs and explores how fingerprinting can inform monitoring, evaluation, and scaling of agricultural innovations. Finally, we outline key research and policy priorities to mainstream DNA fingerprinting into national agricultural systems and to support more evidence-based, accountable, and equitable food policy.

Full circle, but a different world: Reflections on agricultural and rural development in a radically transforming aid and development context

You think you understand development until you step into a different role within it. I started my career as a university lecturer in Kenya, moved into international agricultural research, transitioned into food assistance policy, programme development and front-line humanitarian response, spent time inside a grant-making organisation, worked in an international financial institution, briefly entered the private sector, and now lead a global food policy research team and serve as Director for Africa. From these different vantage points, I have watched the aid and development landscape shift both incrementally and fundamentally. The ‘development world’ I entered 35 years ago was nothing like that of today. The current funding landscape is leaner, faster and far more impatient. Where donors once spoke of long-term transformation, they now focus on short-term returns. Where development once aimed to build broadbased capacity over the longer term, it now targets more immediate, short- to medium-term measurable outputs. Meanwhile, the major global challenges demanding solutions – climate change, economic volatility and conflict – imply the need for resources, analysis and operational capacity at levels never before mobilised. Importantly – and this is a major theme for me – in the face of these pressures, adaptation and innovation have emerged in ways that were unimaginable just a decade ago. We now see growing roles for local organisations and much support for ‘localisation’ in aid and development, and increased emphasis on the roles of private enterprises and digital technologies in opening new ways to tackle difficult challenges. The associated shift in power and influence away from international actors to national and local actors has been real. This represents an important opportunity, if correctly understood and seized.

Multivariate stability analysis to select elite rice (Oryza sativa L.) genotypes for grain yield, zinc and iron

The present study was conducted to evaluate 30 rice genotypes at three different locations in eastern Uttar Pradesh during the Wet- 2020–21 and determine the impact of GEI on grain yield (tha-1), days to 50% flowering, grain Fe content (PPM), and grain Zn content (PPM). The study also aimed to identify the genotypes that displayed the best performance according to the multi-trait stability index (MTSI), multi-trait genotype-ideotype distance index (MGIDI), and factor analysis and ideotype-design (FAI-BLUP) index. AMMI analysis demonstrated significant variation for environment (E), genotype (G), and genotype-by-environment interaction (GEI) (P < 0.01) for all the studied traits. The AMMI1 biplot showed that PC1 explained the majority of the variation for GY (77.6%), DTF (90.5%), Fe (73.5%), and Zn (86.8%), helping to identify stable and high-performing genotypes. AMMI2 biplot further resolved complex GEI patterns, highlighting genotypes with specific adaptability to individual environments. The GGE biplot revealed clear “which-won-where” patterns for GY, DTF, Fe, and Zn, explaining 94.37%, 99.71%, 83.49%, and 96.93% of GEI variation, respectively. BLUP analysis using a linear mixed model revealed significant GEI effects for GY, DTF, Fe, and Zn across 30 rice genotypes in three environments. Low heritability was observed for Fe (28.2%) and moderate for GY (54.4%) and Zn (56.4%), while DTF showed high heritability with strong genotypic accuracy. Genotype G7 was identified as stable, early, high-yielding, and rich in Fe based on HMGV, RPGV, and HMRPGV indices. The MTSI, MGIDI and FAI-BLUP analysis revealed that BHU-SKS-1 (G15) and IR105696 -1–2-3–1-1–1 -B (G9) were the most stable and best mean performer for high grain yield and high grain Fe & Zn content, while IR 108,195–3-1–1-2 (G7) was the most stable and best mean performer for high grain yield and high grain Fe content with early flowering.

Aflatoxin contamination of maize flour in Kenya: Results from multi-city, multi-round surveillance

Foodborne illness is a major source of the global burden of disease, but public monitoring of hazards in food systems is overwhelmingly focused on the formal sector in high income countries. We contribute to the development of an evidence base on food safety risk in low-income and informal settings by monitoring aflatoxin prevalence in maize flour in Kenya. Aflatoxin is a contaminant which causes liver cancer and has been linked to childhood stunting. We carry out systematic monitoring of formally and informally processed maize flour from a range of retail vendors across ten urban sites in Kenya and analyze aflatoxin levels in commercial samples. Samples were obtained every two months from February-December 2021 and 1255 samples in total were analyzed. Almost all samples (97%) showed detectable levels of aflatoxin, with 16% of tested samples exceeding the national regulatory limit of 10 ppb. Mean contamination levels are significantly higher (p < 0.001) in informal market samples (9.9 ppb) than in packaged flour in the formal sector (4.9 ppb). We find important seasonal variation in aflatoxin levels, which are highest in our June sample and lowest in December, which we attribute to variation in sourcing of maize grain. Our results demonstrate the need for policy interventions to reduce aflatoxin exposure in Kenya and demonstrate the utility of coordinated monitoring efforts to track levels of food safety risk in low-income settings.

Farming with alternative pollinators

The relationship between plants and pollinators is widely recognized as one of the most significant forms of ecological interactions [1]. Without pollinators, numerous plant species could not reproduce. Additionally, many animals rely on plants for essential resources such as pollen and nectar. This relationship is remarkably frequent in nature, with an estimated 87% of flowering plants pollinating through animal interaction [2]. Consequently, pollinators are also essential for humanity, especially for their contribution to food security since they are necessary to produce various crop commodities [3]. The production of medicines, biofuels, and construction materials relies, to some extent, on the pollination carried out by animals. Finally, the livelihood of many people is based on beekeeping and honey gathering, which are ancient activities yet still important in many rural communities [3]. Pollination is a recognized ecosystem service, and its economic value has been assessed numerous times [4], [5], [6]. However, we witness a rapid biodiversity decline in terms of wild pollinators, which is caused by human activities [7]. Among the factors leading to this decline, the intensive and improper use of agrochemicals is arguably the most severe [8]. For instance, the practice of seed coating with systemic pesticides (such as Imidacloprid) affects the nectar and pollen, causing a potential threat to pollinators [9], [10]. Habitat fragmentation, loss, and degradation are also important drivers of the decline of wild pollinators. These can be caused by urbanization, removal of “waste places” like hedgerows and field margins, and (over)grazing and early cutting of hay meadows [8]. Climate change is an additional risk, interrupting the timely synchronization of plant-pollinator interactions

Biocontrol

Worldwide, the estimated pesticide use in agriculture is 2.7 million tons (Mt) of active ingredients (FAOSTAT). Despite their accessibility and efficacy, chemical pesticides raise numerous environmental concerns. Chemical pesticides can pollute ecosystems by contaminating soil, air, and freshwater through various pathways, including volatilization [1], spray drift [2], runoff from fields [3], and improper product management [4], like improper disposal of empty containers or incorrect dosage. This contamination can have detrimental effects on aquatic ecosystems [5], harm animals [6], and pose risks to human health through contaminated drinking water sources [7]. The second major concern is the undesired impacts on biodiversity: The use of chemical pesticides is frequently linked to a decrease in populations of non-target species [8], [9], [10], and can also lead to the development of resistance by target species [11], [12], further unbalancing the equilibrium of species populations. Moreover, resistance to pesticides induces the use of alternative and often more potent chemical products, further perpetuating the cycle of environmental harm.

Multipurpose trees

Industrialized food systems and commercial forestry, characterized by monoculture practices, have contributed to significant land degradation [1], biodiversity loss [2], and increase in greenhouse gas emissions [3]. As opposed to the detrimental trends caused by monoculture, agroforestry, and growing multipurpose trees in particular, stands out as a production system that provides multiple benefits [4]. Multipurpose trees are frequently distinctive components of agroforestry systems, although they are rare in commercial forestry and conventional agriculture. The conservation ― or cultivation ― of multipurpose trees is often economically motivated in a multiple-output land-use system, but it can also be driven by ecological and environmental reasons. They are deliberately kept and managed for more than one preferred use, product, or service. They provide food, fodder, fuel, and medicine, while also contributing to soil fertility, water conservation, and biodiversity enhancement1

Micro-irrigation

Irrigation is an essential practice in many agricultural production systems. It is also one of the oldest interventions to nature implemented by humankind, since its origins trace back to almost 6000 BC [1]. Currently, agriculture accounts for 70% of all freshwater withdrawals globally, with irrigation being the primary driver. As shown in Figure 1, irrigation is closely linked to an increase in crop yields. On average at the global level, yields achieved under irrigation are almost double relative to rainfed yields, with potential for even greater yield increase in arid areas. Since water is a scarce resource, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, satisfying the increased demand for irrigation water in agriculture has become a pressing global challenge, exacerbated by climate and demographic change, which will require an increased supply of food for a growing human population [2]. The high demand for irrigation water to support food production is linked to several types of nature losses, the most important of which is the risk of water resources depletion [3] and the subsequent negative impacts on water-related biodiversity and ecosystem services. Figure 2 illustrates the consumption rate of renewable water resources, highlighting how arid and semi-arid regions frequently surpass the natural replenishment rate of their water resources. Furthermore, irrigation can cause soil degradation by inducing changes in soil structure and increasing the risk of erosion [4]. Flood irrigation, in particular, can contribute to soil erosion by physically moving the soil parts. In arid and semi-arid regions, high evaporation rates of irrigation water from the soil surface can cause problems of salinization over time. In regions where irrigated agriculture is prevalent, these environmental risks significantly increase with water overconsumption or inefficient water use.

Organic ferilizers

Fertilization is a crucial aspect of soil management aimed at regulating the nutrient cycle and availability and supporting plant growth and increasing productivity. It involves the application of nutrients, either to the soil [1] or to plant foliage [2] to replenish optimal content in the soil and, ultimately, in the plants. Fertilization has always been an integral part of agricultural production, and its origins can be traced back to around 8000 BCE [3]. Over time the use of fertilizers has evolved, and application rates have significantly increased thanks to industrial processes [4] that enabled the production of low-priced and accessible synthetic fertilizers. Figure 1 shows the extent of the worldwide use of nitrogen-based fertilizers, the most typical nutrient applied in agriculture as it is often a yield-limiting nutrient.

Sustainable manure management

Manure is any excrement and urine of farmed animals and is considered a resource or waste, depending on where and how much is produced, and how it is used. It is an essential source of nutrients for plants, and it has been used for fertilizing soil and enhancing crop production since the advent of agriculture [1]. It reduces the reliance on chemical fertilizers in situations where they can be hard to find (or to afford) and in contexts like organic agriculture, where chemical fertilizers are avoided for ethical or policy reasons. Manure production worldwide is increasing [2] due to the growing demand for meat and animal-based products [3]. This trend raises concerns about the potential threat to ecosystems posed by manure, since several factors can contribute to environmental pollution hazards [4]. Manure contains high levels of nutrients like nitrogen and phosphorus. When manure is applied to soil in excessive amounts, or during periods of heavy rainfall, these nutrients can enter nearby water bodies through the processes of leaching and runoff [5]. High levels of nitrates in water bodies can lead to excessive and rapid growth of algae, causing oxygen depletion and eutrophication [6]. This process can lead to the death of fish and other aquatic organisms that depend on oxygen to survive, ultimately resulting in habitat degradation and loss of biodiversity [7]. In fact, untreated manure spread onto soils is generally considered the principal cause of eutrophication [8], [9] and of nitrate freshwater pollution from agricultural sources [10]

Minimum tillage

Soil tillage represents a key agricultural management practice for crop production, serving multiple purposes. Primarily, it is used to control weeds and increase the soil organic matter mineralization rates, making nutrients more available to plants. Other potential benefits are improved soil aeration and water filtration. However, extensive use of tillage has proven unsustainable for soil maintenance and climate regulation. Deep plowing and other cultivation practices lead to soil degradation by increasing susceptibility to erosion [1], soil runoff [2], and by reducing microbial diversity and activity [3]. Minimum tillage and no-tillage (also known as zero-tillage) address these problems by reducing soil cultivation to a minimum, or entirely avoiding it, thus promoting less disruptive and potentially more sustainable agricultural management. Specifically, no-tillage eliminates traditional plowing practices with the use of direct seeding. To be effective, direct seeding is preceded by other land preparation practices, including chemical or mechanical weed control (e.g., slashing), removal of the previous crop residues, or cover crops to create a mulch layer. Crop residues are retained entirely, or at a suitable level to ensure complete soil coverage. Seeding is then done directly through the mulch layer or through narrow slits for seed placement. Occasionally, direct seeding can be done just before harvesting the previous crop. This practice, known as relay cropping, is used to reduce weed emergence during the period the land would otherwise lie fallow. Finally, direct seeding can be also done jointly with fertilizer and amendment applications. Minimum tillage is also promoted as a method to reduce air pollution, for instance in India, where previously farmers used to burn rice straw but now apply direct seeding on cut crop residues which are spread as mulch.

Crop rotation

Crop rotation is a critical agricultural practice employed to mitigate the adverse effects associated with monoculture systems. Monoculture, which refers to the cultivation of a single crop over a whole farm or area [1], has seen a constant spread worldwide since its early instances, such as the Caribbean sugarcane plantation in the 18th Century [2]. Among the many reasons concurring in the diffusion of monoculture, increased profitability through economies of scale is probably the main driver. Concentration on one crop allows for more efficient planting and harvesting, lower investment in diverse and costly equipment, reduced need for a workforce with specialized knowledge, and a comprehensive understanding of specific value chains and available markets

Waste to animal feed

Currently, Food Waste (FW) is a pressing global issue with significant environmental, social, and economic implications. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), approximately one-third of all food produced for human consumption ― almost 1.3 billion tons globally ― is lost or wasted each year . This wastage occurs throughout the food system, from farm to fork. However, FW in high-income countries mainly originates from food consumption whereas in low-income countries it comes from food production and food processing [1]. This reflects differences in consumers' habits and behavior and in the technological underpinnings of local food systems. Regardless of which part of the food system FW originates from, it has serious consequences for food security [2], resource conservation [3], and climate change [4]. FW contributes to greenhouse gas emissions through various processes. Greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, are emitted when FW is landfilled [5]. The total global amount of FW generates 3.3 billion tons of carbon dioxide emission annually [6]. Landfilling also contributes to the formation of leachate, a toxic liquid that can contaminate groundwater and surface water.

Agro-silvo-pastoralism

Agro-silvo-pastoralism is an agricultural practice combining crop cultivation (agro), forestry (silvo), and animal husbandry (pastoralism) within the same system. It is an integrated approach to land management, applicable to a wide range of ecological conditions [1] that aims to create a harmonious interconnection between its components, thereby maximizing overall system productivity, promoting production diversification and biodiversity, and ensuring sustainability [2]. Agro-silvo-pastoralism systems were already known during the Roman Empire; such systems are mentioned in works like "De Agri Cultura" by Cato (second century B.C.), "Naturalis Historia" by Pliny the Elder (first century B.C.), and "De Re Rustica" by Varro (37 B.C.) [3]. Archeological studies prove that the practice is rooted in the Bronze Age [4], [5]. In recent years, the interest in agro-silvo-pastoralism has been renewed because of its potential to sustain rural farming in marginal areas and to adapt to the challenges posed by climate change [6]. In Brazil, for example, areas under agro-silvo-pastoralism amount to 17 million hectares, with a potential to reach three times that number.

Green manure

Soil management is a critical aspect of crop production for its impact on environmental and economic sustainability. Ordinarily, in annual cropping systems, land lays fallow in the period that follows the harvest of one crop and precedes the sowing of the next. This period of non-cultivation helps reconstitute the soil fertility and water reserves [1], [2]. However, improperly maintaining the land fallow is shown to deplete soil quality and harm the environment. Without vegetation cover, the soil is more exposed to erosion [3], surface runoff [4], and degradation of its organic content [4]. Erosion and surface runoff not only reduce soil fertility, leading to an inefficient use of resources [3], but also pose a potential threat of freshwater contamination with nitrates and other agricultural by-products [5]. The degradation of soil organic matter has severe impacts when not reconstituted and preserved. The soil's capacity to hold water [3] and nutrients decreases, making control of those critical inputs complex for farmers. Climate regulation is also affected: soil organic matter stores carbon within the soil ecosystem, but its degradation releases it into the atmosphere, exacerbating greenhouse gas levels [6]

Mechanical soil and water conservation

In semi-arid areas, where water scarcity and poor soil condition pose significant threats to agricultural production and to the livelihood of individual smallholders and communities, water and soil management are critical for food/water security. Limited renewable freshwater and erratic rainfall patterns in those areas restrict the reliance on irrigation, making water conservation strategies more pressing and necessary [1]. Moreover, implementing advanced irrigation systems may be challenging due to limited resources and a lack of technical expertise [2]. For smallholder farmers, the adoption of irrigation systems, such as drip irrigation, is limited by further constraints such as high costs, limited access to finance, lack of technical support, and may not be suitable for all local conditions and cropping systems [3]. Under these constraints, promoting water and soil conservation strategies practices as part of a broader water management package to increase agricultural productivity at the farm level becomes crucial for ensuring sustainable agricultural production.

Integrated nutrient management

Soil fertilization is a fundamental practice for increasing crop yields and ensuring sustainable agricultural production. As shown in Figure 1, the use of fertilizers has been growing over the years, reflecting the importance of fertilization in all agricultural systems. However, several environmental issues and potential health risks arise from incorrect approaches to fertilization in both high-income and low-income countries.

Intercropping

Over the last decades, crop yields in conventional farming and monocropping systems have increased globally, benefiting from advancements in plant breeding and from higher use of inputs, specifically water, fertilizers, and pesticides. However, the environmental, social, and economic sustainability of such high-input/high-output systems is questionable, and this requires revisiting the conventional farming and monocropping systems paradigm. Moreover, conventional agriculture and monocropping significantly impact biodiversity by reducing habitat diversity and increasing environmental degradation. Monocropping promotes genetic uniformity, leading to the decline of traditional crop varieties. Intensive agricultural practices, such as the extensive use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, result in habitat fragmentation, soil degradation, and loss of soil microbial diversity, which are detrimental to various plants and wild animals.

Integrated pest management

The use of pesticides in agriculture has had mixed consequences. While pesticides have significantly increased agricultural productivity and food security by reducing yield losses to harmful organisms [1], their excessive use has led to severe environmental consequences. Inherently, pesticides are designed to protect plants from pests. However, their effects extend far beyond the targeted organisms. Pesticides occasionally contaminate soil [2], [3], [4], water [5], [6], and air [7], leading to widespread environmental pollution, reducing biodiversity and causing potential health risk to humans [8]. This happens through volatilization [9], spray drift [10], runoff from fields [11], and improper product management [12] such as improper disposal of empty containers or incorrect dosage [12]. The chemicals used in pesticides can persist in the environment, causing long-term harm to ecosystems [13]. They do not stay confined to the areas where they are applied; they can spread through air and water, affecting distant ecosystems and non-target species.

Spatial analysis shows moderate yet significantly more vigorous crops in AICCRA communities compared to control communities

In southern Ghana, communities with multiple stakeholder CSA field demonstrations (CSA hubs) show significantly more vigorous crops based on satellite imagery from 2021 to 2025, compared to control communities.

Overcoming budget constraints to healthy diets: Evidence from urban Tanzania

This study investigates the impact of temporary subsidies for nutrient-dense foods on the diets of low-income households in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Vouchers for eggs, milk, and unflavored yogurt were provided to randomly selected households over a three-month period. The subsidies significantly increased the consumption of the targeted healthy foods while discounts were offered. These effects persisted up to 9 months after the end of the subsidy period and were accompanied by a shift in preferences for the targeted foods. Consumption of unhealthy complements, specifically sugar added to yogurt and milk, increased during the subsidy period. Finally, while poorer households initially benefited most, sustained impacts were greater among wealthier households. In sum, the findings demonstrate that subsidies for healthy foods can lead to sustained improvements in diets, while suggesting a role for accompanying interventions such as nutrition education to maximize net health benefits, and pointing to the need for ongoing support to the most vulnerable.

Multidimensional poverty and vulnerability in Sri Lanka, 2024-2025

We assess multidimensional poverty and vulnerability in Sri Lanka using the BRIGHT Integrated Household Survey data for 2024-2025.
Nearly one quarter of all Sri Lankans are multidimensionally poor, and nearly one half are multidimensionally vulnerable.
The multidimensionally poor are deprived in 45% of the weighted poverty indicators, while the multidimensionally vulnerable are deprived in 37% of the weighted vulnerability indicators.
Estate areas have the highest rates of multidimensional poverty (63%) and vulnerability (83%), but most of the multidimensionally poor (77%) and vulnerable (79%) live in rural areas because nearly 8 out of 10 Sri Lankans live there.
Central province has the highest multidimensional poverty rate (38%), while Northern (75%), Eastern (65%), and Uva (60%) provinces have the highest multidimensional vulnerability rates.
Western province has one of the lowest multidimensional poverty rates (17%) and the lowest multidimensional vulnerability rates (35%).
The main sources of multidimensional poverty are health deprivations and standard of living (assets and basic services) deprivations.
The main sources of multidimensional vulnerability are shocks, unproductive debt, poor health, and inadequate schooling.

Policy Implications for Sri Lanka:
The government of Sri Lanka should consider using multidimensional poverty and vulnerability measures to re-assess district-level poverty for the first-stage allocation of Aswesuma resources.
Refinements and/or extensions of these multidimensional poverty and vulnerability measures could prove useful for assessing potential policy levers for reducing current poverty and the vulnerability of households to future poverty.

Agricultural drones are taking off globally, saving farmers time and money

Drones have become integrated into everyday life over the past decade – in sectors as diverse as entertainment, health care and construction. They have also begun to transform the way people grow food.

In a new study published in the journal Science, we show that use of agricultural drones has spread extremely rapidly around the world. In our research as social scientists studying agriculture and rural development, we set out to document where agricultural drones have taken off around the world, what they are doing, and why they have traveled so far so fast. We also explored what these changes mean for farmers, the environment, the public and governments.

Digital tool integration, biodiversity, and the potato value chain in Kenya: Results from a baseline survey

Potato farmers in Kenya grapple with various challenges along the value chain, including limited access to quality planting materials such as seeds and fertilizers, insufficient storage and postharvest handling facilities, fluctuating market prices, and unreliable market information systems. These challenges are further exacerbated for women and youth because of persistent social gaps in the agriculture sector. Digital tools can play a vital role in addressing these challenges by providing access to valuable agricultural information, weather forecasts, and best practices that help farmers make informed decisions and improve crop management. However, challenges persist in digital tool adoption within the agricultural value chains in sub-Saharan Africa.

The study aims to assess the impact of digital tool adoption and support on socioeconomic and agriculture-related outcomes in Kenya’s potato value chain. It piggybacks on an ongoing digital tool integration program, Business Development and Coaching (BDEC), conducted by the Farm to Market Alliance (FtMA), which targets agripreneurs in Farmer Service Centers (FSCs). By comparing a treatment group that receives this training with a control group continuing business as usual, the study evaluates the effects of agripreneurs’ adoption and expanded use of digital tools on farmers’ agriculture-based livelihoods, income generation, and job creation metrics, with a focus on youth employment and gender disparities.

The price of fragility: Shocks, food security, and lessons from Nigeria

Over the past decade Nigeria has experienced persistent food price inflation and substantial volatility, driven by domestic fragilities and global shocks. Three major shocks – the COVID-19 pandemic (2020), the Ukraine-Russia war (2022), and fuel subsidy reform (2023) – drove large and uneven price increases, with wheat prices rising by 63.3% and brown sorghum by 83.9%. Volatility was highest for wheat flour and groundnuts, with coefficients of variation of 0.53 and 0.51, reflecting Nigeria’s dependence on imports and sensitivity to external price shocks. This study utilizes high-frequency retail price data for eight staple food commodities across all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory to analyze spatial and temporal food price dynamics, volatility patterns, and their welfare implications. To quantify welfare impacts, we use the International Food Policy Research Institute’s Food Price Simulator. Results show a 9.1 percentage point increase in food poverty (from 42.9% to 52.0%) and an 11.6-point rise in undernourishment (from 40.0% to 51.6%). Lower-income households reduced food expenditures by 12.7%, compared to 9.5% for higher-income groups, reflecting disproportionate exposure to food inflation. Northern zones had relatively lower prices for traditional grains due to more favorable agroecological conditions, while southern regions faced higher prices due to higher transport costs and limited local production. Conflict-affected northeastern states exhibited the highest volatility and food insecurity. We propose a three-pronged policy agenda: short-term safety nets and strategic reserves, medium-term reforms to strengthen market connectivity through improved transport and storage infrastructure, and long-term investments in climate-resilient, inclusive food systems.

Rebuilding trust in local leadership in conflict-affected settings: The impact of community-based cash transfers

Trust in local leadership is critical for effective delivery of public goods and services -especially in conflict-affected and post-conflict settings, where local institutions and markets remain weak, and peacebuilding and recovery efforts are crucial. Thus, identifying avenues and instruments for rebuilding trust in local leadership remains important. Building on a recent and large-scale armed conflict in Ethiopia, we study the impact of a randomized community-based cash transfer on trust in local leadership. The randomized cash transfer was introduced after the war in Ethiopia and its implementation involved local community leaders, some of whom may have participated in the conflict. We find that exposure to armed conflict is associated with a significant
deterioration in trust in local leaders, while the community-based cash transfer recovers some of the deteriorated trust. We provide suggestive evidence that the impacts of cash transfer are driven not only by those who received the cash transfer but also by non-beneficiary households in communities where the cash transfer is implemented. Our heterogeneity analysis reveals that the treatment effect is largely driven by poor households and households which do not benefit from government safety net programs. These results have important implications for policy design in rebuilding trust in local leadership in post-conflict and fragile settings.

Agroecology and Integrated Rice– Fish Systems: Pathways to Food and Nutritional Security in Eastern India

Integrated Rice Fish Systems (IRFS) offer a viable substitute for rice monoculture. They efficiently use the rice field ecosystem’s inherent productivity and available resources to provide the farming community with better economic and nutritional gains. IRFS adoption remains poor in Eastern India, despite favorable geographic conditions, natural resource availability, traditional knowledge, necessity for economic growth, and preference of rural communities for a rice and fish-based diet. To investigate whether agroecology (AE) could accelerate an IRFS-based transition towards food and nutritional security (FNS), this review of 194 scientific articles on IRFS from 2004 to 2024 documented the AE traits of IRFS and their relevance to addressing FNS. The current IRFS of Eastern India were assessed, first through a rapid review process to identify their qualitative traits consistent with AE. Next, we evaluated IRFS’ impact on FNS. In total, IRFS has shown 52 traits relevant to AE principles and that address FNS. Among 13 AE principles, seven have been considered primary impact creators of FNS. Impact may be accelerated with strategies such as crop diversification, mixed crop-livestock systems, and farmer-to-farmer networks. Fish play a significant role in IRFS by preserving ecological and socioeconomic equilibrium, supporting livelihoods, income, and community engagement. In Eastern India, an analysis of five distinct IRFS types identified qualitative features that could support a maximum of 10 relevant AE principles, but for which pertinent empirical evidence was lacking. Although IRFS could potentially boost smallholder income, FNS, and overall productivity, Eastern India would need to address seven significant challenges, including initial investment costs, vulnerability to natural disasters, hilly terrain, loss of indigenous fish varieties, environmental impacts of inputs, land-use change, limited technical knowledge and financial constrains among the farming communities. AE frameworks can support scaling up IRFS adoption and diffusion through a holistic approach to performance evaluation and creating appropriate strategies and guidelines.

A 2020-21 Social Accounting Matrix for Pakistan with a Related Water Resources Module

This paper presents the methodological framework and data sources for developing a national-level Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and its integrated hydrological component for Pakistan. The foundation of this data paper builds on the methodology of national SAMs developed by IFPRI, while disaggregating several accounts relevant to water and food policies. The aim is to provide a systematic guide to the methodology and data requirements necessary for constructing a national SAM for Pakistan and to present key results from this exercise. The SAM is updated from the 2013–14 base, following the structure of the Nexus SAMs developed by IFPRI under the CGIAR’s Policy Innovation Science Program, with several modifications in the estimation of accounts to better capture Pakistan’s water–food–economy interlinkages. On the hydrology side, the data has been comprehensively updated using multiple national and provincial sources, including the recent Punjab Tube-Well Census, surface water flow and runoff data, canal-level inflows and evaporation, zonal-level rainfall and water storage records, and spatial datasets on area and crop production across provinces. Together, these datasets strengthen the integration of hydrological and economic systems, providing a robust foundation for evidence-based water and agricultural policy analysis in Pakistan.

Signaling, screening, or sunk costs? Experimental evidence on how prices affect agricultural technology adoption in East Africa

Free samples are a widely used strategy to introduce new products or technologies, offering prospective users the opportunity to gain firsthand experience and potentially facilitate diffusion through social networks. However, concerns remain that giving away products for free may reduce their perceived value, increasing the risk that recipients will underutilize, repurpose, or resell the product rather than use it for its intended purpose. We explore three mechanisms through which charging a positive price may increase uptake, intended use and subsequent adoption of a new technology: (1) a signaling effect, where a positive price conveys higher product quality; (2) a screening effect, whereby payment deters users who do not value the product and targets those more likely to use it; and (3) a sunk cost effect, where paying a positive price induces a psychological commitment to use. We test how these pricing mechanisms shape uptake, use, and subsequent adoption of recently released seed varieties of staple food crops, drawing on a field experiment with smallholder farmers in Uganda and Ethiopia. We find that willingness to pay is a reliable predictor of subsequent use of seed trial packs, pointing to the value of modest prices for targeting likely adopters. At the same time, sunk cost effects are context specific and often negative, suggesting that charging farmers can reduce their ability or willingness to experiment. These findings carry important implications for how pricing strategies can be designed to promote technology adoption in low-income settings.

Policy implementation is operational

This paper argues that policy implementation must be understood as a fundamentally operational process, not merely the execution of policy intent. It proposes a framework centered on four core dimensions of implementation: activation cost, option value, kinetics, and negotiation. Drawing on the case of the World Food Programme’s 2008 Cash and Voucher Policy, the paper shows that implementing a policy requires building physical and institutional systems, creating delivery capacity, managing uncertainty, and preserving strategic flexibility. The case is not about cash transfers as such, but about what it took—organizationally, technically, and politically—for the World Food Programme to move from a policy decision to sustained, system wide operational capability and delivery. The paper concludes that successful policy implementation depends on treating implementation itself as the central frontier of policy action—requiring investment, learning, negotiation, and time. Several implications emerge for researchers, practitioners, and investors seeking to close the gap between policy on paper and policy in action.

Advanced spatial analytics for policy support: Use cases from One CGIAR

The CGIAR Science Program on Policy Innovations (“Policy Program”) is committed to driving transformation across Food, Land, and Water (FLW) systems. Identifying viable policies and investment options through Foresight and Prioritization exercises (Area of Work 1) is key to reaching this goal. However, prioritizing interventions that are relevant to local needs and conditions, while addressing global drivers and megatrends that affect FLW systems across different scales remains a challenge. This report seeks to address this challenge. It demonstrates how spatial analytics, a fast-evolving field that sits at the intersection of economics, public policy, geography, and data science, can provide actionable policy insights. It also aims to equip policymakers and partners with advanced and accessible spatial analytical tools to design and implement tailored policies, investments and programs. The report starts by providing a unified framework that brings together diverse spatial analytics approaches to support policy. It reviews the evolution of spatial analytics, spanning geographic information systems (GIS), spatial economics, and economic models with spatially explicit inputs and outputs. It also introduces a taxonomy of building blocks to illustrate how different spatial tools and methods can address various policy questions. This report draws on 11 use cases from across CGIAR centers in which spatial analytics have been applied to inform policies across Africa, Asia, and Latin America. It demonstrates how spatial analytics can identify priority intervention areas and appropriate actions at the local level while accounting for global drivers. Key challenges in scaling spatial analytics for policy application are also identified, including data gaps, methodological complexities, and computational constraints. The report concludes by outlining future directions to fully leverage spatial analytics for policy support. This report aims to advance the integration of spatial analytics across disciplines and scales, enabling the translation of local spatial patterns into regional and global policy frameworks. The curated use cases show that spatial analytics is no longer a niche technical exercise, but an operational tool that facilitates FLW systems transformation towards desirable futures. By systematically linking spatial heterogeneity to multi-scale policy needs, spatial analytics can generate actionable and scalable insights for policy development and implementation

Climate-smart agriculture for sustainable agriculture in Bhutan: Adoption, policy barriers, and way forward

This discussion brief is part of the knowledge management and capacity building component of the Consortium for Scaling-up Climate-Smart Agriculture in South Asia (C-SUCSeS) project. C-SUCSeS is a joint initiative between the SAARC1 Agriculture Centre (SAC), International Fund for Agriculture Development (IFAD) and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). It aims to promote bottomup applied research on climate-smart agriculture (CSA) technologies through active participation of smallholder farmers based on the participatory research experiences in the region.

Climate-smart agriculture technologies in Nepal: Adoption, policy barriers, and way forward

This discussion brief is part of the knowledge management and capacity building component of the Consortium for Scaling-up Climate-Smart Agriculture in South Asia (C-SUCSeS) project. CSUCSeS is a joint initiative between the SAARC1 Agriculture Centre (SAC), International Fund for Agriculture Development (IFAD) and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). It aims to promote bottom-up applied research on climate-smart agriculture (CSA) technologies through active participation of smallholder farmers based on the participatory research experiences in the region.

Climate-smart agriculture in Bangladesh: Adoption, policy barriers and way forward

This discussion brief is part of the knowledge management and capacity building component of the Consortium for Scaling-up Climate-Smart Agriculture in South Asia (C-SUCSeS) project. C-SUCSeS is a joint initiative between the SAARC1 Agriculture Centre (SAC), International Fund for Agriculture Development (IFAD) and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). It aims to promote bottomup applied research on climate-smart agriculture (CSA) technologies through active participation of smallholder farmers based on the participatory research experiences in the region.

Africa Report: External development financial flows to food systems

The 3FS report series contains three key components that together provide first-of its kind evidence on financial flows to food systems:

• Country reports from the Governments of Kenya, Niger and Peru, which piloted the 3FS Framework to generate first-time in-country evidence on food systems financing. These reports visualize domestic public resources and external development finance in a complementary manner. The next step is to incorporate private sector investment to complete the financial landscape. Furthermore, seven additional governments across Africa and Asia have formally requested support in applying the 3FS approach to track their own food systems financing.

• A global report on the state of external development financial flows to food systems in support of low-income countries and middle-income countries. The report captures trends before and after 2021, the year of the United Nations Food Systems Summit – a key benchmark for assessing global and national commitments to scaling up concessional financing for food systems transformation. It explores:
- How much external development financing has been provided
- What is being financed
- The types of financial instruments used, ranging from grants to highly concessional and concessional loans

The global report also profiles major donors and their financing patterns and highlights top recipient regions and countries, with particular attention to how resource allocations align with food systems vulnerabilities. Finally, it includes an annex contributed by the Global Network Against Food Crises, which examines the immediate prospects for bilateral funding for food assistance and beyond. The annex explores the relationship between humanitarian and development financing for food systems in the context of ongoing shifts in bilateral funding.

Agricultural input retailers in Myanmar: Insights from the 2025 monsoon season

This Research Note presents results from an August 2025 phone survey of 227 agricultural input retailers – who provide agricultural inputs and informal credit to farmers – in Myanmar’s major agro-ecological zones.
Key Findings
• Input sales declined sharply in the 2025 monsoon relative to 2024. Fewer retailers sold inorganic fertilizers and pesticides, and aggregate sales for those who did sell declined by 31 percent for inorganic fertilizer and 10 percent for pesticides.
• The decline is not solely due to supply shortages: smaller areas planted, weaker farm profits, and conflict have dampened demand, while climate change and the 2025 earthquake add to input market stress. Two-thirds of retailers cite lower input demand from climate change in the past three years, and earthquake impacts – while more localized – disrupted market access and areas planted.
• Transport remains the dominant business disruption. Even with a slight drop in overall reported disruptions compared to 2024, transport problems – higher costs, checkpoints and roadblocks – still dominate. Long input supply chains dependent on imports and flowing through Yangon mean that checkpoints and higher costs compound as inputs reach rural farmers.
• Farmer finances are stressed, especially in rice-dominant areas. Farmers are asking for and taking more credit from input retailers. This likely reflects tighter liquidity following the recent global rice price decline, which has reduced incentives and profitability for monsoon paddy.
• Credit provision is expanding but adding risk. More retailers are providing credit to farmers and sourcing their inputs on credit from suppliers. Yet, two-thirds of retailers that provided credit in 2024 still have unpaid debts from farmers, raising the risks of cascading financial stress.
• Measures to ease transport constraints, stabilize access to imported fertilizers and pesticides, and expand formal credit options for both farmers and retailers would help sustain this essential link in the agrifood system.

Presentations for Informing Crisis Response in Sudan

Presentations for Navigating the Food Security Nexus: Commodity Prices, Inflation, and Exchange Rates

Healthy diets and the role of micro, small, and medium enterprises: Examining Ethiopia’s food environment

Micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) play an important role in the food environment in many low- and middle-income countries. But there is little systematic knowledge about the opportunities they have and constraints they face in trying to grow their businesses. To contribute to building this knowledge base, we draw upon linked household–enterprise surveys collected in two districts in Ethiopia in 2023. To learn about the constraints faced by these enterprises, we examine differences in organizational characteristics and business practices by outlet type, location, and manager gender and education among MSMEs that sell food. The results suggest that while there are clear availability constraints for specific types of foods, there are some strategies that could help MSMEs that retail healthy foods increase sales. If policymakers or others are interested in supporting sales through the food environment, interventions such as business training, service access, and capacity building on nutrition would best fit their needs.

Presentations for Tackling extreme poverty and financing for food systems in Africa

Cash, food, and vouchers: An overview of the evidence

The choice of different modalities for transferring resources to extremely poor households—food provided in-kind, cash, or intermediate modalities such as vouchers—has long been the subject of active debate in both policy and research. This note provides an overview of the recent evidence around the relative effectiveness of cash and food aid, drawing on studies conducted over the last 20 years around the world.

Each modality has some potential advantages. Cash transfers are flexible in allowing recipients to use resources to meet a range of material needs (including, but not limited to food); and when they do choose to purchase food, allows them to choose a basket of items that is optimal based on their preferences. (The corresponding disadvantage of food transfers is that if recipients de sire nonfood items, they have to resell food for funds, often at a nontrivial transaction cost.) Cash transfers are often easier and lower-cost to deliver (particularly given the substantial growth of electronic payment systems) compared with the more complex logistical requirements of delivering food, especially perishable food. They are also generally less observable, potentially rendering them less likely to generate stigma or demands for sharing from nonrecipients. Cash can also have indirect beneficiaries through positive spillover effects in the local economy, though the evidence base for this is not large, and suggests that spillovers may be negative in some contexts.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: September 2025

In September 2025, Sudan’s markets showed relative stability despite conflict, inflation, and weather related disruptions. Cereal and vegetable prices remained broadly stable, while meat, oilseeds, and fuel saw moderate fluctuations. Availability of most essential goods improved slightly, though Darfur states continued to record the highest prices. The parallel exchange rate rose to about 3,100 SDG/USD, widening the gap with the official rate. Traders cited transport costs, heavy rains, and checkpoint fees as key drivers of higher prices, though logistical challenges eased from August. Liquidity and infrastructure conditions improved: 71 percent of merchants reported no cash short ages and 93 percent faced no storage or power issues. However, security risks persisted in Darfur and Kordofan, affecting trade safety. Profit margins remained mostly stable, while tax compliance declined, especially at the federal level. Despite ongoing challenges, merchants remain resilient—two-thirds plan to maintain current trade levels, and nearly one-fifth aim to expand, reflecting cautious optimism amid uncertainty.

Cash transfers and inflation: An overview of the evidence

Cash transfer programs are a leading form of social assistance, reaching up to 21 percent of the population in at least 68 low- and middle-income countries (World Bank 2025). Between 1980 and 2023, a total of 1.4 million papers were produced on the matter (Gentilini 2024) and more have been published since. While the design and impact of these and related programs have been closely studied (Banerjee et al. 2024), much less is known about whether or not cash transfer programs cause increases in the market price of good and services—that is, inflation. By reducing the purchasing power of money, program-driven inflation can diminish the positive impacts of cash transfers for recipients and create a negative spillover for nonrecipients, thus undermining program aims of improving social welfare. Recent literature on cash transfers and inflation is limited and often described as dichotomous: on one side, Egger et al. (2022) and other studies find little to no effect, while, on the other side, Filmer et al. (2023) find sizable and alarming inflationary effects on selected commodities. However, a closer look at these and other papers reveals that their results are less contradictory than they first appear. Rather, the whole body of the current literature is congruous with the hypothesis that cash transfers have minimal average effects on prices for most market goods; but these transfers can cause inflation where they significantly increase market demand for goods for which supply is relatively inelastic. This review proceeds as follows. We first present a simple conceptual model that illustrates the theoretical basis for this hypothesis, followed by an overview of the studies included in the review and their key differences. The next section presents a synthesis of the main findings in the existing empirical evidence. We then look at related research just outside the purview of this review. The conclusion discusses key takeaways.

Prospects of crop insurance for sustenance of farmers' livelihood during GM cotton crop failure in Indian Punjab

Despite the susceptibility of cotton crops to pest attacks in the Malwa Region of Indian Punjab, no crop insurance policy has been implemented there– not even the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY), which is a central scheme. Therefore, this paper attempts to gauge the likely impact of the PMFBY on Punjab cotton farmers and assess the changes needed for greater uptake and effectiveness of PMFBY.The authors have conducted a primary survey to conduct this study. Initially, the authors compared the costs of cotton production with the returns in two scenarios (with and without insurance). Additionally, the authors have applied a logistic regression framework to examine the determinants of the willingness of farmers to participate in the crop insurance market.The study finds that net returns of cotton crops are conventionally small and insufficient to cope with damages from crop failure. Yet, PMFBY will require some modifications in the premium rate and the level of indemnity for its greater uptake among Punjab cotton farmers. Additionally, using the logistic regression framework, the authors find that an increase in awareness about crop insurance and farmers' perceptions about their crop failure in the near future reduces the willingness of the farmers to participate in the crop insurance markets.The present study looks for the viability of PMFBY in Indian Punjab for the cotton crop, which can also be extended to other crops.Punjab could also use crop insurance to encourage diversification in agriculture. There is a need for special packages for diversified crops under any crop insurance policy. Crops susceptible to volatility due to climate-related factors should be identified and provided with a special insurance package.There exist very scant studies that have discussed the viability of a central crop insurance scheme in the agricultural-rich state of India, i.e. Punjab. Moreover, they do not also focus on crop losses accruing due to pest and insect attacks.

Taking stock: Impacts of 50 years of policy research at IFPRI

As the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) marks its 50th anniversary, the Institute and its key stakeholders pause to take stock of what is known about its policy influence and impact over the years. What does the available evidence tell us about IFPRI’s achievements as an international research institution? Have its activities contributed to better policy and investment decisions by governments, development agencies, nongovernmental organizations, the private sector, and others involved in the economic and social development of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)?

This report builds on a stocktaking paper published for IFPRI’s 40th anniversary, whose findings were generally favorable, by using more recent external sources of evidence to provide updated answers to these questions. It synthesizes bibliometric and download data, as well as a series of independently conducted impact assessment studies of many of IFPRI’s research programs and projects. This task has been facilitated by the availability of 40 such evaluations, commissioned by IFPRI, the CGIAR Research Programs on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health and on Policies, Institutions, and Markets, or project donors. Additionally, other agencies commissioned several evaluations of specific country and regional policies that IFPRI helped influence. This wealth of independent assessments is rare for a policy research institution. Moreover, IFPRI’s commissioning or co-commissioning of 36 impact assessments over 25 years demonstrates a serious commitment to an impact evaluation culture and a willingness to learn from its experiences.

Malawi: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Malawi’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) processors, seed systems, and farmers credit are shown to be the most cost-effective at driving improvements in social outcomes, like poverty and undernourishment. They are also highly ranked in terms of expanding agrifood GDP and employment. Investments in extension and advisory services for livestock, SME traders, and seed subsidy also rank high. However, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, which highlights potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of in vestment options overtime and when extreme production shocks occur.

Presentations for The EU Deforestation Regulation: Policy Implications and Research Frontiers

In June 2023, the European Union (EU) adopted its Regulation on Deforestation-Free Products (EUDR)—a landmark policy designed to reduce global deforestation and forest degradation driven by EU consumption. Under the regulation, key commodities with the biggest impacts on deforestation—soy, cattle, palm oil, cocoa, coffee, wood, and natural rubber—cannot be placed on the EU market or exported unless they are free of deforestation and legally produced.

Investing in innovative food systems solutions in challenging contexts

Humanitarian agencies are in a race against time to save lives in contexts where economies have collapsed as hunger is aggravated by conflicts and extreme weather, among other factors. Take Nigeria, for example. Across the country lives and livelihoods are being shattered by conflict and climate shocks – once a breadbasket, the northern regions now rely heavily on humanitarian food assistance. The numbers speak for themselves: 30.6 million people are food insecure – 10 million people in three northern states; 17 million children are malnourished – the highest number in Africa, second highest globally after India. Farmers are cut off from their fields. Traders struggle to move goods through dangerous or impassable roads. Millions are displaced. And yet amid this fragility pockets of resilience are emerging in areas where conflict has subsided such that some farmers can return to their farms.

IFPRI and Ethiopia Ministry of Agriculture: High-Level Workshop on Social Protection and Economic Transformation

Food Security Simulator – Malawi

The Food Security Simulator Malawi (FSS-MWI) is an innovative and easy-to-use, MS-Excel-based tool for assessing the potential short-term impacts of food price or household income shocks, along with changes in preferences, on food security and people's diets. The Simulator is an ideal tool for first-cut forward-looking evaluations of direct, household-level outcomes of economic crises and policy responses in a timely manner. The tool allows users to enter positive and negative price or income changes in percentage terms and provides simulated changes for a diverse set of food-consumption- and diet-quality-related indicators. In addition to detailed tabular presentations of all simulation results by household income quintile and residential area, key indicator results are summarized in concise overview tables and visualized in graphs for easy export and use in reports. The underlying data include estimates from representative household survey data and rigorous, sophisticated food demand models to capture consumer behavior.

A good global investment for Canada: How investing in CGIAR reduces global poverty and benefits Canadian citizens

This note documents how CGIAR investments have delivered substantial economic, benefits for Canada while reducing global poverty and food insecurity. By driving agricultural innovation and providing evidence-based insights, CGIAR has boosted Canadian farm productivity, expanded export markets, and made food more affordable for Canadian consumers. It has also helped prevent billions of dollars in potential damage from pests and diseases that threaten Canadian farm livelihoods. CGIAR investments are likely to continue benefiting Canadian farmers in the future as the CGIAR continues to provide a large share of genetic materials for plant breeding. These genetic materials will be essential to the discovery and development of new traits that increase yields and benefit Canadian farmers in the future. CGIAR research will continue to support the work of Canadian partner institutions and promote demand for Canadian exports by fostering economic growth in low- and middle- income countries.

IFPRI Malawi Monthly Maize Market Report, September 2025

Highlights
Retail prices of maize were relatively stable in September.
National price stability concealed significant market-level variations in maize prices.
Imports continued dominating cross-border trade in maize.

Graduating from Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme: What have we learned?

Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) – one of the largest social protection programs in Africa – has improved food security and strengthened recovery from shocks, yet it has achieved limited progress in raising incomes or diversifying livelihoods. In response, policymakers have layered graduation models onto the PSNP to promote sustainable self-reliance. This note synthesizes evaluation evidence from NGO- and government-led initiatives. NGO-led intensive, high-cost models increased assets and incomes in the short to medium term but rarely enabled households to exit the program. NGO-led lighter-touch approaches improved resilience but delivered minimal gains in overall well-being. Government-led efforts have faced persistent delivery challenges, including overstretched systems, weak credit access, and limited market linkages. Broader structural constraints, such as shrinking landholdings, scarce nonfarm opportunities, and recurrent drought and other shocks, further undermine the promise of graduation programming in this context. The review highlights six policy lessons on design, financing, and integration with broader development strategies to shape more effective approaches going forward.

Measurement of gender attitudes to inform gender-transformative approaches: Insights from 4 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa

Motivation
- Extensive prior research has demonstrated that reducing gender discrimination enhances women’s empowerment, promotes more inclusive livelihoods, increases agricultural productivity, and improves other development outcomes.
- Growing interest on gender-transformative approaches and change indicators, but gaps remain on how to design and measure them
- Objective 1: To contribute to the documentation and measurement of gender attitudes that may pose challenges or create opportunities, especially for women working in agrifood systems.
- Objective 2: To contribute to the emerging literature on how framing affects the measurement of gender attitudes.
- Objective 3: To analyze whether gender-attitude measures align with other commonly used measures of gender (in)equality (e.g., WEAI)