IFPRI Datasets

Front-of-pack labels and young consumers: An experimental investigation of nutrition and sustainability claims in Chile

Rural institutions and the technical efficiency of teff production in Ethiopia

We examine the effect of rural institutions on plot-level technical efficiency of teff production. We account for differences in production technology, access to the market, plot characteristics, and weather shocks across plots and investigate the robustness of the effects of rural institutions on technical efficiency across various specifications. Using a large and detailed cross-section of teff plots, we find that teff output could be increased by approximately 25 percent with the available inputs and technology through improved technical efficiency. The magnitude of technical inefficiency is robust to alternative functional forms and variable specifications. Community discussion groups and distance to the nearest agricultural co-operative have a positive relationship with technical efficiency, highlighting their potential to enhance agricultural productivity. However, we find limited evidence on the relationship between co-operative membership, visits with extension and technical efficiency of teff producers. Our results show that when studying the impact of new programs and policies in agriculture, it is important to look beyond just whether farmers are members of co-operatives. We might consider other factors, such as how much access they have to co-operative services. It is crucial for policymakers to consider implementing targeted interventions to share information on best management practices and agricultural technologies in order to address the efficiency gap in teff production.

JEL classification: D02, D24, C54, P13, N57

Storage management practices and mycotoxin contamination of sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) in northwest Ethiopia

Mycotoxins are toxic metabolites produced by certain fungal species that affect animal and human health. Data on the relationships between specific traditional storage management practices of sorghum and mycotoxin contamination are rarely available in Ethiopia. The aim of this study was to investigate current sorghum storage management practices in major sorghum producer locations in Northwest Ethiopia and their relationships with mycotoxin contamination. Sorghum storage management practices of 120 farmers were surveyed, the occurrence of multiple mycotoxins in samples from their stored sorghum was determined, and potential relationships between the traditional storage management practices and mycotoxin contamination were analyzed. Samples were analyzed using UPLC-MS/MS for 33 different mycotoxins. About 88% of the samples were contaminated with at least one mycotoxin. The detected mycotoxins belong to one of the four mycotoxin categories, produced by Aspergillus spp, Fusarium spp, Penicillium spp, and Alternaria spp. From the total, 3%, 7%, and 3% of the samples were contaminated with aflatoxins, ochratoxin A, and zearalenone, respectively, above the EU regulatory limits. The measured concentrations that bypassed EU regulatory limits were 9.14, 18.34 and 29.13 (μg/kg) for total aflatoxins, 5.31, 12.50, 14.94, 15.77, 32.94, 56.81, 58.07 and 112.59 (μg/kg) for Ochratoxin A, and 123.48, 238.43 and 431.78 (μg/kg) for Zearalenone, respectively. Logistic regression showed relationships between the traditional storage management practices with mycotoxin contamination. The age and the experience of the Main Person Responsible for Storage management (MPRS), the placement of the storage structure, and the insecticide application showed negative relationships with multi-mycotoxin contamination. On the other hand, the educational status of the MPRS and the type of storage structure showed positive relationships with mycotoxin contamination. Therefore, it is recommended that farmers receive training in proper sorghum storage management to further reduce the mycotoxin contamination in the grain.

Global shocks to fertilizer markets: Impacts on prices, demand and farm profitability

During 2021–2022, spiking fertilizer prices raised fears that fertilizer application would drop around the world, leading to lower crop production, higher food prices, and greater food insecurity. Even writing mid-2024, a paucity of data impedes a full assessment of how the underlying global market shocks may have affected farmers and food production around the world. Using proxy indicators for fertilizer demand and farm profitability, we find that despite the steep increase in input costs, global demand for fertilizer fell only modestly during the 2022–2023 crop cycle, suggesting many (commercial) farmers were able and willing to absorb increased input costs in the context of generally good harvest prospects and, at the time, high crop prices. However, we also find the fertilizer price spikes have not been felt equally, with many farmers in Africa estimated to have been affected more adversely, even though with varied impacts also amongst those farmers.

Maize yield responsiveness and profitability of fertilizer: New survey evidence from six African countries

Enhancing maize productivity growth is pivotal for revolutionizing the agrifood system in Africa, with inorganic fertilizer serving as a fundamental input for catalyzing this progress. However, concerns are mounting about the low and decreasing yield response and profitability of inorganic fertilizer use, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study aims to refine yield response and profitability models by incorporating recent data from nationally representative and panel datasets spanning six countries. Most countries exhibited low nitrogen yield responsiveness (4–7 kg), while Ghana and Uganda showed higher responsiveness (15–20 kg) per additional 1 kg of nitrogen. Analysis of fertilizer-to-maize price ratios from 2010 to 2023 showed a downward trend, with spikes in 2022 in Ghana, Malawi, Nigeria, and Tanzania. Overall, except for those years, the data suggest a trend of increasingly favorable price incentives for fertilizer use. Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Uganda experienced declines in the fertilizer-to-maize price ratio. Increasing inorganic fertilizer use would be profitable in Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, and Uganda at current market prices, but not in Malawi or Tanzania. Subsidies in Malawi and Tanzania have boosted profitability, but these may not be necessary in Ghana, Nigeria, or Uganda, which already have favorable price incentives; Malawi could benefit by substantially reducing its 80 percent subsidy while maintaining decent price incentives and farm profits. The paper proposes policy options based on factors influencing yield responsiveness and potential improvements drawn from new modeling and synthesis of the literature.

Fertilizer demand and profitability amid global fuel-food-fertilizer crisis: Evidence from Ethiopia

We assess fertilizer demand and profitability in Ethiopia in the face of the recent global fuel–food–fertilizer price crisis and other domestic shocks. We first examine farmers’ response to changes in both fertilizer and food prices by estimating price elasticity of demand. We then evaluate the profitability of fertilizer by computing average value–cost ratios (AVCRs) associated with fertilizer application before and after these crises. We use detailed longitudinal household survey data collected in three rounds, covering both pre-crisis (2016 and 2019) and post-crisis (2023) production periods, focusing on three main staple crops in Ethiopia (maize, teff, and wheat). Our analysis shows that fertilizer adoption, and yield levels were increasing until the recent crises, but these trends have been halted by these crises. We also find slightly larger fertilizer price elasticity of demand estimates than previous estimates, ranging between −0.40 and −1.12, which vary across crops. We find that farmers are more responsive to fertilizer prices than to output prices. Farmers’ response to increases in staple prices was statistically insignificant and hence not as strong as theoretically perceived. Households with smaller farm sizes are relatively more responsive to changes in fertilizer prices. Finally, we show important dynamics in the profitability of chemical fertilizer. While the AVCRs show profitable trends for most crops, the share of farmers with profitable AVCRs declined following the fertilizer price surges. Our findings offer important insights for policy focusing on mitigating the adverse effects of fertilizer price shocks.

Estimating the direct and indirect effects of improved seed adoption on yields: Evidence from DNA-fingerprinting, crop cuts, and self-reporting in Ethiopia

Farmers' adoption of improved crop varieties could increase yields in low-income countries. However, the presence of measurement error in household surveys poses a challenge to estimating true returns. Using the 2018/19 Ethiopia Socio-economic Survey, we analyze the impacts of how three sources of measurement error: misperceptions of seed varieties, land area, and quantities harvested affect maize yields and input use. These data include DNA-fingerprinting of seed, GPS plot size information, and crop cuts that we compare to farmers’ self-reported estimates of these measures. Results indicate that the measurement error in self-reported seed variety adoption, especially from farmers who did not know they were using improved maize varieties, attenuates their estimated yield gains by 25 percentage points on average. The enhanced genetics of improved seed varieties accounts for a 41-percentage point yield increase over non-improved varieties, and increased input use accounts for a 30-percentage point gain for improved varieties on average.

JEL classification: D13, O13, N57, Q12, Q16

Fertilizer and conflicts: Evidence from Myanmar

The number of farmers residing in fragile and conflict-affected countries is rising globally, yet the impacts of conflict on the economics of inorganic fertilizer in these settings remain poorly understood. We study how conflicts in Myanmar, combined with global fertilizer market disruptions, have affected inorganic fertilizer prices, use, response, and efficiency. We utilize unique nationally representative household panel survey data and a comprehensive approach that employs various analytical methods to examine the nexus between conflicts and fertilizer-related issues. Our findings reveal that greater intensity of violent events is associated with higher prices of major types of inorganic fertilizer, particularly in areas farther from major import locations. These price changes and increases in violent events have suppressed both the likelihood and quantity of inorganic fertilizer usage, leading to decreased rice yield responses at given nitrogen application levels. Panel stochastic frontier analyses, combined with a method addressing the endogeneity of inorganic fertilizer use, suggest a significant decline in fertilizer use efficiency each year since the onset of conflict. The increase in violent events is also associated with the reduced use of extension services, seeds from markets, irrigation, and optimal fertilizer blends, which may partly explain the diminished returns and efficiency of inorganic fertilizer use. Conflict therefore seems to be associated with a change in the economics of inorganic fertilizer use through various impact channels, affecting agricultural performance in these fragile and conflict-affected settings.

Adapting the Women's Empowerment in Nutrition Index: Lessons from Kenya

Women face a disproportionate burden of malnutrition and food insecurity. Research has shown that women's empowerment can buffer women against nutritional problems. This paper contributes to ongoing efforts to measure women's empowerment that are both context-sensitive and universal, focusing on the recently developed Women's Empowerment in Nutrition Index (WENI). Earlier research has shown it is both a valid construct and positively related to dietary and nutritional outcomes of women in South Asia. We establish that WENI is generalizable to agropastoral and pastoral Kenya, an area with substantially different livelihoods, food system, norms, and institutions than South Asia. We find that a locally contextualized WENI is strongly associated with women's body mass index and dietary diversity as well as household level food insecurity. We also present findings for two shorter variations of WENI: an abbreviated WENI (A-WENI) and a cross context WENI (CC-WENI). A-WENI contains a small subset of WENI indicators identified using machine learning with South Asian data and therefore is context-specific. CC-WENI does not contain indicators specific to the validation context. We find that they perform comparably well with caveats. Thus, as use of WENI expands we recommend adapting WENI for in-depth analyses of women's nutritional empowerment; using CC-WENI for cross-context comparisons; and using A-WENI for rapid appraisals of community level progress in a given context.

Adapting the women’s empowerment in nutrition index: Lessons from Kenya

Women face a disproportionate burden of malnutrition and food insecurity. Research has shown that women’s empowerment can buffer women against nutritional problems. This paper contributes to ongoing efforts to measure women’s empowerment that are both context-sensitive and universal, focusing on the recently developed Women’s Empowerment in Nutrition Index (WENI). Earlier research has shown it is both a valid construct and positively related to dietary and nutritional outcomes of women in South Asia. We establish that WENI is generalizable to agropastoral and pastoral Kenya, an area with substantially different livelihoods, food system, norms, and institutions than South Asia. We find that a locally contextualized WENI is strongly associated with women’s body mass index and dietary diversity as well as household level food insecurity. We also present findings for two shorter variations of WENI: an abbreviated WENI (A-WENI) and a cross context WENI (CC-WENI). A-WENI contains a small subset of WENI indicators identified using machine learning with South Asian data and therefore is context-specific. CC-WENI does not contain indicators specific to the validation context. We find that they perform comparably well with caveats. Thus, as use of WENI expands we recommend adapting WENI for in-depth analyses of women’s nutritional empowerment; using CC-WENI for cross-context comparisons; and using A-WENI for rapid appraisals of community level progress in a given context.

Armed conflict and gendered participation in agrifood systems: Survey evidence from 29 African countries

This paper provides empirical micro-level evidence on the gendered impacts of armed conflict on economic activity in agriculture and other sectors, combining large-N sex-disaggregated survey data with temporally and spatially disaggregated conflict event data from 29 African countries. We find that local conflict exposure is only weakly related to labour-force participation, but strongly reduces the total number of hours worked and increases engagement in the agricultural sector. These net impacts exist for both men and women. However, the reduction in hours worked is significantly greater among men, while the increase in agricultural activity is significantly greater among women. In the longer term, impacts of conflict on employment two years later are stronger when no more conflict ensues than if further conflict occurs, challenging the widespread idea of one-off conflict shocks fading away over time and suggesting that labour markets adapt to and absorb lasting conflict situations. Different types of conflict event have qualitatively similar impacts, which are strongest for explosions, such as from air strikes or landmines. Overall, our findings underline that armed conflict entails structural economic, social and institutional change, which creates complex, gendered impacts on economic activity.

Building Ethiopia’s food security resilience to climate and hydrological change

Historically Ethiopia's food security has been sensitive to climatic variability, but changes in future weather and climate could lead to overall reductions and increased variability in agricultural production, without further adaptation. We present an integrated modelling assessment framework which combines climate, crop, and hydrological modelling to quantify future risks to Ethiopia's food security. We explore the impacts of 2°C and higher climate change scenarios on water availability and crop yields and simulate how future climate shocks may impact Ethiopia's food. We consider three adaptations to agricultural management practices (improved seed varieties, increased use of nitrogen fertilizer and supplementary irrigation) and quantify their effectiveness in enhancing the resilience of Ethiopia's food system to climate and hydrological change by 2050. Results show that, without policy intervention, climate change creates a risk of declining Meher season crop yields across Ethiopia. Under the worst climate change scenario, teff (−12.0%), barley (−6.7%), and wheat (−4.4%) are projected to have the largest decline in average yields, whilst maize (−0.1%) and sorghum (+0.9%) yields are less impacted thanks to more favourable growing conditions. However, the results also indicate that the adaptation options have a bigger beneficial effect than the climate impact. Of the policies evaluated, improved seeds have a relatively greater effect than increased fertilizer use. Supplementary irrigation could help to mitigate increases in crop water requirements under warmer climate conditions and is most effective in drought prone basins and for drought-vulnerable crops. Overall, the results show that locally relevant agricultural policies are necessary to build Ethiopia's food system resilience to climate and hydrological change by the mid-century.

Seed certification, certified seeds use and yield outcomes in Nigeria: Insights from nationally-representative farm panel data and seed company location data

CONTEXT
Despite the importance of enhanced seed quality to agricultural productivity growth, evidence remains scarce regarding the nature and possible drivers of returns to formal sector quality assurance systems, including certified seeds production in countries like Nigeria that focus significantly on the formal-sector seed systems.
OBJECTIVE
This study narrows this knowledge gap by estimating the effect of the quantity of certified seeds produced and the spatial variations where they are produced on the use of certified seeds and yields. We also assess the yield effects of certified seeds use and their relationship with agroclimatic and socioeconomic conditions.
METHODS
We combine nationally-representative farm-household survey panel data with spatial data on the headquarters locations of seed companies, the quantity of certified seeds for maize, cowpea, and rice that they produce, and spatially explicit agroecological data. We apply panel fixed effects methods as well as instrumental-variable methods to address potential endogeneity associated with certified seeds use while also controlling for the use of improved varieties to separate their effects from the effects of certified seeds.
RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
Our findings indicate that the availability of certified seeds—captured by indicators of certified seeds produced by seed companies headquartered in the states of survey respondents—is associated with positive but declining marginal effects on certified seeds use and yields. These results are robust when we also consider the potential within-state heterogeneity in the proximity to seed company headquarters, as well as potential spillovers from the nearest adjacent states. The yield effects of certified seeds are heterogeneous and depend on agroclimatic conditions and farmers' socioeconomic characteristics. The use of certified seeds is somewhat higher in areas with higher yield effects after controlling for certified seeds production. These patterns partly lead to observed non-linearities in certified seeds use because certified seeds may be more likely to be used by farmers with higher expected returns than farmers with lower expected returns. These results underscore the importance of spatially targeted efforts in enhancing certified seeds production capacity, together with the exploration of intermediate quality standards in the short term where costs of seed certification are high relative to returns.
SIGNIFICANCE
The study provides unique quantitative evidence in a nationally representative framework in an African country that returns to seed certification systems in the current setting significantly vary depending on contexts, including agroclimatic conditions.

Perspective: Can growth monitoring and promotion accurately diagnose or screen for inadequate growth of individual children? A critical review of the epidemiological foundations

Growth monitoring and promotion (GMP), the process of periodic anthropometric measurements to assess the adequacy of individual child growth, is implemented across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The epidemiological foundations of GMP (i.e., that GMP can accurately diagnose or screen for inadequate growth) have never been critically reviewed. We first assessed growth patterns of individual healthy children. Using longitudinal data from low-, middle-, and high-income countries, we evaluated whether commonly used GMP criteria can be used for diagnosis and screening; i.e., if they accurately identify current, or predict subsequent, inadequate growth in individual children. The growth of individual healthy children does not track along a specific growth curve which challenges the notion that growth measurements alone can be used to distinguish between healthy and inadequate growth. We demonstrate that GMP criteria do not provide meaningful diagnostic information and that GMP is not a meaningful screening activity: commonly used GMP criteria are inaccurate predictors of (inadequate) growth later in childhood; and collecting individual children’s weight and height does not help to identify who needs support or who will benefit. Our results do not undermine the importance of dedicated programs to diagnose wasting in individual children nor do they challenge the need for well-child care to support parents and to ensure children’s optimal nutrition, health, and development. Our findings, however, highlight the need to carefully reconsider the current design of GMP in LMICs.

Commercialization and dietary diversity of Rwandan smallholder farmers: A focus on women and youth headed households

Using a household dietary diversity score as a proxy for household access to nutritious foods, this paper assesses the relationship between commercialization and nutritional outcomes of Rwandan smallholder farmers, with a particular emphasis on women and youth headed households. The results indicate that commercialization has a strong, positive effect on household dietary diversity but mixed results between sub-categories of households. For instance, male-headed households have higher overall dietary diversity compared to female-headed ones, but much of that variation can be explained by higher asset ownership and income. However, relative to male headed households, female headed households appear to respond to increasing levels of commercialization by consuming more diverse foods, an insight that could be useful for targeted interventions. Importantly, youth-headed households exhibit greater household dietary diversity than those households headed by older individuals, despite having both lower levels of assets and crop commercialization. General determinants that positively influence household dietary diversity include the level of commercialization, household non-farm assets, market access, education of the household head, the presence of children under five in the household, irrigation use, land size, and livestock holdings. The goal of this research is to enable policy makers to better identify the drivers of household dietary consumption, particularly among more vulnerable households, and how to encourage a more diverse diet for better nutritional outcomes.

Market monitoring in Rwanda’s rice sector: Insights from recent events

Summary
• While domestic rice production has risen 16% over the past five years, district level growth rates are varied and suggest strong growth in some districts but reductions in others. Leveraging higher growth area’s successes could be used to further expand production in declining growth districts.
• Microeconomic data suggests that smallholder rice farmers have slightly larger than average landholdings, grow at lower elevations, and sell about twice the percentage of crop value when compared to typical smallholders.
• A declining Tanzanian rice premium over the last five years (2019-2024) suggests a greater substitutability between Rwandan and Tanzanian rice but specific reasons for this trend are unclear and warrant further research. Overall, a 50 percent premium has been reduced to currently about 20 percent.
• Following a dramatic price increase in 2022, a subsequent large decrease in Tanzanian wholesale rice prices may have undermined government price setting in August 2024. Domestic producer rice price setting has been based on costs of production but appears to not consider other factors, such as the effects of imported prices of direct substitutes. A price analysis reveals that Tanzanian wholesale prices, valued in USD, fell about 37 percent from October 2023 to August 2024, while Rwandan retail rice prices were down only 14 percent. This relative price decrease could have effectively squeezed Rwandan processors when faced with government determined local producer prices that constricted potential profitability against rapidly declining Tanzanian prices.
• Research presented below indicates that Tanzanian wholesale prices have large, immediate impacts on rice prices in Rwanda, but Rwandan prices have little to no effect on either imported or wholesale Tanzanian rice prices. Therefore, dramatic changes of Tanzania wholesale prices have large effects on both retail Tanzanian and Rwandan rice prices in Rwanda. This unidirectional effect highlights the importance of monitoring domestic and important international prices and studying prices which could have potentially helped policymakers adjust to market dynamics more effectively and better inform target interventions. We recommend developing an improved market monitoring and forecasting unit to better incorporate the food systems approach promoted in PSTA 5.

Digital marketing of unhealthy foods and non-alcoholic beverages to children and adolescents: A narrative review

With growing access to electronic devices and time spent online, the food and beverage industry increasingly uses digital media to market unhealthy foods and non-alcoholic beverages (high in unhealthy fats, sugars, and/or salt and often highly processed) to children and adolescents. We conducted a narrative review of the global evidence on digital marketing of these foods and drinks and studied policies and regulations in Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries. Evidence was limited to a few high, upper-middle and lower-middle income countries where children and adolescents were found to be extensively exposed to the digital marketing of unhealthy foods and non-alcoholic beverages and this exposure increased with age. A wide range of purposefully designed marketing techniques were used. Exposure to the digital marketing of unhealthy foods appears to be followed by increased consumption, but the quality of the evidence was limited. Accurate assessment of exposure was a shortcoming in most studies. Stronger evidence will require studies with more rigorous designs that minimize confounding and objectively quantify individual exposure. Mandatory comprehensive policies are needed that limit exposure of children and adolescents to the marketing of unhealthy foods and non-alcoholic beverages irrespective of the medium or platform they use. The experience of LAC countries may provide insights for the development of effective policies in other countries. Novel technologies that can be used by governments to monitor digital marketing regulations are needed.

Advancing women's voice and empowerment in the agrifood policy process: Findings and recommendations from the WEAGov India Pilot Study

Women’s equal participation and leadership in political and public life can boost a country’s long-run economic growth, foster social inclusion, and help countries reach the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. Beyond these important outcomes, women’s inclusion in public life is a basic human right: women deserve a role in making decisions, controlling resources, and shaping policies. Yet, globally, only 22 percent of members of parliament and 16 percent of cabinet secretaries are women. Although disproportionately employed in the agrifood system, women lack decision-making power regarding the policies that govern it. And beyond high-level statistics like the share of women in national parliaments, there is a lack of tools for measuring and tracking gender equality in national- and state-level governance (ElDidi et al., 2021; Quisumbing et al., 2023; Ragasa et al., 2022). Yet, achieving meaningful progress on gender equality within governance requires identifying specific gaps and opportunities within a country’s policy process.

Does trade with multinationals induce greener production? Evidence from the Bangladesh fashion industry

This working paper examines the impact of trading with global fashion brands on the environmental performance of suppliers in Bangladesh. The study finds that an increase in the number of exporters to brand multinationals improves the river water quality surrounding these exporters, highlighting the crucial role multinational buyers play in mitigating industrial pollution.

JEL Classification: F18, F64, O13, Q56

Unique datasets on shocks, food security, and household coping strategies: Creating new analytical playgrounds to study coping behavior in the multi-shock environments of Mali, Chad, Niger, and Burkina Faso (2018-2023)

To inform the Cadre Harmonisé process in West Africa, large-scale national household surveys are usually implemented twice a year to capture data on household food security and several forms of consumption- and livelihood-based coping strategies. These cross-sectional surveys typically take place around February-March (before the start of the lean season) and September-October (at the end of the lean season or beginning of the harvesting period), and they are generally representative at the second-tier administrative level. Despite their different names (that is, ENSAN in Mali, ENSA in Chad, EVIAM in Niger, and ENISAN in Burkina Faso) and the methodological revisions introduced over the years, these surveys have a large common set of variables that were pooled together by standardizing the modalities of all common variables found across the multiple survey waves between 2018 and 2023. Apart from reconsolidation and reprocessing of initial data files, this process also involved the re-computation of several key indicators on food security and household coping as to assure maximum methodological consistency over time.

IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, January 2025

Highlights
 Retail prices of maize increased by 21 percent in January.
 Maize prices were lowest in the Northern region, where informal imports from Tanzania and northern Zambia enter the country, and increased southward.
 Some maize was exported to southern Zambia, but high prices in southern Malawi attracted imports from Mozambique.
 At the market exchange rate, retail prices of maize in Malawi were similar to those in Zambia and lower than in Mozambique and Zimbabwe.

Can district level support enhance coverage and equity? Evidence from India’s nutrition program

Importance: India’s Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS) program is among the world’s largest nutrition and health programs that offers services to pregnant, lactating mothers, and young children. To support national investments towards universalization of ICDS interventions, between 2016 and 2020, the Indian government in collaboration with multiple partners, introduced system strengthening mechanisms at the district (subnational administrative unit) level in 64% of India’s districts.

Objectives: To examine national-level trends in coverage and equity of ICDS interventions and the role of district-level support mechanisms in improving equitable coverage.

Design, Setting, and Participants: This quasi-experimental assessment used data (N=393,097 mother-child pairs) from three rounds of nationally representative surveys in 2006, 2016, and 2020. We used inequity indices and regression models to assess changes in equity by wealth, caste, and residence. We applied difference-in-differences (DID) models to investigate changes in coverage due to district support mechanisms between 2016 and 2020.

Intervention: The district support mechanisms were introduced between 2016 and 2020 and included a combination of input features such as capacity building of frontline workers, additional human resources, financial, infrastructural, and technological support, among others.

Main Outcomes and Measures: Our primary outcomes were the receipt of thirteen ICDS services during pregnancy, lactation, and early childhood. District support mechanisms were grouped into three treatment arms for DID analyses using an intention-to-treat approach with heterogeneous treatments.

Results: ICDS utilization continued to increase from 2016 to 2020, with the most improvement observed in health and nutrition education (20-21pp). Unlike 2006-2016, there were large improvements in coverage equity between 2016-2020. DID models show, on average, that districts receiving any programmatic support had significant and faster improvements in coverage (2.2-14.7pp). Pooled effects sizes were larger, on average, for districts that received financial support in addition to human resources (8.9pp, 95% CI 7.3-10.74) compared to districts that only received human resource support (4.5pp, 95% CI 3.4-5.7).

Conclusions: India’s programmatic efforts to further strengthen the ICDS were successful in increasing coverage of ICDS program at the national-level and reducing coverage inequities that persisted earlier. Focused district support mechanisms enabled faster progress in coverage and equity.

Presentation for the Official Launch of the Third School Meal Programs Around the World Report

How helpful are the “hidden costs of food systems” numbers?

The long-run and intergenerational impact of early exposure to the Great Chinese Famine of 1959–61 on mental health

We study the effects of early exposure to the Great Chinese Famine on the mental health and subjective well-being of survivors as well as their offspring using data from the 2010 and 2014 waves of the China Family Panel Studies. Our analysis focuses on K6 scores, severe mental illness, and life dissatisfaction. We find that early exposure to the famine has impaired the mental health outcomes of women, but not men (i.e., the first generation). For the second generation, negative effects only show up among the sons of male famine survivors. Some preliminary evidence suggests that the mechanism for such transmission may have to do with the cultural son preference.

Methodology [of the PEDAL project]

Large-scale food fortification (LSFF) is considered one of the most cost-effective ways of addressing micronutrient deficiencies. The intervention involves adding essential minerals and vitamins to widely consumed foods and requires minimal changes to consumption patterns while relying on existing food delivery systems. However, there is a lot of variability across countries in the adoption of mandatory and voluntary LSFF standards, that is, the government legislation requiring that specific staple foods or condiments be fortified. In fact, there are more than 80 countries where micronutrient deficiencies are widespread but a mandatory fortification standard has not been adopted. Even in countries where standards have been adopted, implementation could not be financially sustained over the years or laboratory tests revealed that designated food vehicles lacked the stipulated micronutrients. The Political Economy Diagnostic for Assessing Large-Scale Food Fortification (PEDAL) is designed to identify the ways in which political and institutional factors may contribute to differences in the uptake and implementation of LSFF standards. While political economy is acknowledged to be an important factor underlying the success or failure of LSFF, few studies on LSFF explicitly incorporate it into their analyses. By reducing LSFF to a purely technical intervention, bottlenecks to policy traction can worsen and derail uptake. In contrast, PEDAL offers a systematic diagnostic of the political economy environment for LSFF to identify these bottlenecks ex ante and to calibrate policy interventions accordingly. In doing so, PEDAL aims to help countries advance toward achieving healthier diets and reducing micronutrient deficiencies. PEDAL focuses on two core elements of the enabling environment: political will and implementation capacity (see Figure 1). Political will consists of the range of interests that motivate different stakeholders, the ideational goals that underlie their policy preferences, and their degree of leverage to exert their preferences. Implementation capacity consists of both the institutional architecture established to make continuous decisions related to LSFF policy and the technical capacity to ensure regulations are adhered to at the processing and retail levels. Across both dimensions, the diagnostic examines three sets of actors: the public sector (including government ministries, agencies, executives, legislators, and bureaucrats), the private sector (such as food producers, processors, and retailers) and civil society (including consumers, research institutes, universities, journalists, and nongovernmental organizations). The remainder of this brief examines these components in more detail and highlights how they can be assessed by researchers and practitioners.

The effects of prenatal multiple micronutrient supplementation and small-quantity lipid-based nutrient supplementation on small vulnerable newborn types in low-income and middle-income countries: A meta-analysis of individual participant data

Background
Small vulnerable newborn types, defined by combinations of being born too soon or too small, have distinct determinants and health consequences. We aimed to assess the effects of prenatal multiple micronutrient supplementation (MMS) and small-quantity lipid-based nutrient supplementation (SQ-LNS) on small vulnerable newborn types, which are currently unknown.
Methods
In this meta-analysis, individual participant data from randomised controlled trials of MMS and randomised controlled trials of SQ-LNS in low-income and middle-income countries were used. We systematically searched the literature using PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science to identify randomised controlled trials of prenatal nutritional supplementation using MMS or SQ-LNS among pregnant people published between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2021. Studies were excluded if they were conducted exclusively among participants selected by pre-existing health conditions, such as anaemia status, HIV infection, or diabetes. We contacted the corresponding authors of all identified studies to seek data contribution. As individual participant data became available, we mapped relevant variables and harmonised the data across studies. Iron and folic acid supplementation was the control group in most studies. Newborns were classified into ten groups through the combinations of preterm or term birth, small, appropriate, and large for gestational age, and low birthweight (LBW) or non-LBW. Newborns were also analysed using a four-group categorisation of preterm or term and LBW or non-LBW. Log-binomial models were used to estimate study-specific risk ratios (RRs), which were pooled using meta-analyses.
Findings
14 randomised controlled trials of MMS (n=42 618; the mean maternal age at study enrolment was 24·3 years [SD 5.6]; 22 086 [51·8%] male neonates and 20 532 [48·2%] female neonates) and four randomised controlled trials of SQ-LNS (n=6246; the mean maternal age at study enrolment was 23·3 years [SD 5·3]; 3137 [50·2%] male neonates and 3109 [49·8%] female neonates) were used. In the ten-group categorisation of small vulnerable newborns, prenatal MMS reduced the risk of preterm–small for gestational age (SGA)–LBW (RR 0·73, 95% CI 0·64–0·84; p=0·0003); preterm–appropriate for gestational age (AGA)–LBW (0·82, 0·74–0·91; p=0·0010); preterm–AGA–non-LBW (0·89, 0·80–0·98; p=0·019); term–SGA–LBW (0·91, 0·85–0·96; p=0·0046); and term–SGA–non-LBW (0·95, 0·90–1·00; p=0·050). In the four-group categorisation, prenatal MMS reduced the risk of preterm–SGA (0·71, 0·62–0·82; p=0·0002) and term–SGA (0·93, 0·89–0·98; p=0·0066). Prenatal SQ-LNS had no significant effects on the risk of giving birth to small vulnerable newborns except for preterm–large for gestational age–non-LBW in the ten-group categorisation (0·78, 0·65–0·94; p=0·023).
Interpretation
Prenatal MMS and SQ-LNS reduce the risk of giving birth to small vulnerable newborns to varying extents, with the greatest magnitude of effects observed for small vulnerable newborn types that confer the greatest neonatal mortality risk. This study underscores the importance of nutritional supplements in prenatal care.

Association between wasting and inadequate breastfeeding practices among infants under six months in SNNPR and Somali regions of Ethiopia: A multilevel cross-sectional study

Background
Wasting is a severe threat to children’s survival and development. Attaining optimal breastfeeding practices for infants under six months of age remains a significant challenge in low-income countries. This study assessed the association between wasting and breastfeeding practices among infants under six months of age in the SNNPR and Somali regions of Ethiopia.

Methods
The study used data from a large feasibility study conducted in the SNNPR and Somali regions of Ethiopia, from August-September 2021. This study involved 895 infants under six months of age with their mothers. The Poisson regression model with robust variance estimation was used to produce adjusted prevalence ratios (APRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Results
The prevalence of wasting was 16.5% (95% CI: 14.2, 19.2) among infants under six months of age. Non-exclusive breastfeeding (APR = 1.50; 95% CI:1.02, 2.21), delayed initiation of breastfeeding (APR = 1.52; CI:1.00, 2.30), being male infants (APR = 1.50; 95% CI:1.09, 2.07), and mothers who attained primary level (APR = 0.62; 95% CI: 0.40, 0.95) or secondary level education (APR = 0.30; 95% CI: 0.09, 0.99) were independently associated with wasting in the multivariable analysis.

Conclusion
This study indicates a high prevalence of wasting among infants under six months of age. Non-exclusive breastfeeding and delayed initiation of breastfeeding were the modifiable factors significantly linked to infant wasting. Strengthening breastfeeding promotion and support may help reduce wasting in infants under six months.

The connection between climate change and malnutrition

The linkage is increasingly being acknowledged by policies and in climate protection measures. But concrete, well-financed and institutionally backed strategies are still lacking.

Madagascar assessment

Large-scale food fortification (LSFF) presents a promising intervention in Madagascar, where approximately 75% of the population lives below the poverty line and faces multiple malnutrition burdens. For instance, 39.8% of children under age five are stunted, and 37.8% of reproductive age women suffer from anemia (Development Initiatives 2022). These trends persist despite a long history of nutrition programs and alliances, including the introduction of a mandatory salt iodization program in 1995, several national nutrition policies and action plans since 2004, and the country’s participation in the Scaling Up Nutrition (SUN) movement since 2021. Moreover, despite several voluntary standards in place, progress in implementing mandatory LSFF for widely consumed foods remains stalled, lagging behind LSFF in many other African countries.

Conditional contracts in indirect local procurement of maize from smallholder farmers in Uganda: A study design to assess impacts

Improving smallholder farmers’ access to reliable markets can have significant impacts on their wellbeing, income, poverty reduction, dietary diversity, and rural economic growth. As the choice of marketing channels may influence outcomes differently depending on the context, a key issue is understanding the effectiveness of different marketing instruments. One such modality is a conditional contract between a buyer and the traders supplying it. Such a contract requires traders to source a certain percentage of their supplies directly from smallholder farmers. This raises the question of whether conditional contracts create access to reliable markets for smallholder farmers, result in value chain transformation, and sustain market engagement between traders and smallholder farmers.

Household coping strategies and food security in the multi-shock environment of Mali

This study investigates household coping strategies and food security outcomes within the context of multiple, overlapping shocks, including conflict, food price volatility, climate events, and economic instability. Utilizing a unique household dataset on Mali combined with probit models to account for the compounded effects of these systemic shocks, the analysis highlights significant elasticities between specific shocks and household responses. Key findings demonstrate that while preventive measures, such as income diversification, strengthen resilience, reactive strategies like selling productive assets or borrowing money or food provide only short-term relief but undermine long-term sustainability. The impact of coping strategies on food security measures, including the Food Consumption Score (FCS), Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS), and Household Hunger Scale (HHS), reveals the trade-offs Malian households make between immediate needs and future stability. The study emphasizes the critical role of policy interventions in mitigating these vulnerabilities, including strengthening social safety nets, expanding access to financial services, and promoting climate-resilient agricultural practices. By integrating the analysis of multiple shocks, this research provides actionable insights for building household and community resilience in environments of compounded risk.

Integrated agro-industrial parks in Ethiopia: Status, success and challenges with a focus on Yirgalem IAIP

This study aims to assess the current state, successes, and challenges of Integrated Agro-Industrial Parks (IAIPs) in Ethiopia, with a specific focus on the Yirgalem Integrated Agro-Industrial Park (YIAIP). The analysis is based on an extensive literature review and semi-structured interviews with key informants (KIIs). By examining the current state of Ethiopia's IAIPs, the research provides valuable insights into their successes and shortcomings, offering critical lessons to enhance the sustainability of IAIPs in Ethiopia and guide the development of similar initiatives in other Sub-Saharan African countries.

Papua New Guinea food price bulletin: January 2025

Download time series food price data, and build graphs and tables for over 20 different food crops at our food price database webpage: https://www.ifpri.org/project/fresh-food-price-analysis-papua-new-guinea/ Price trends: Quarterly comparisons (Q4 2024 vs. Q4 2023 and Q4 2022) Sweet potato prices in Q4 of 2024 were 20.4 percent higher in all markets compared to Q4 of 2023 (averaging 1.64 PGK/kg in Q4 of 2023, and 1.79 PGK/kg in 2024). However, sweet potato prices in Kokopo were 13 percent lower in 2024 (1.35 PGK/kg) compared to 2023 Q4 price (1.55/PGK/kg) Rice prices have increased slowly (but remained stable) since 2022. Compared to Q4 2023, rice prices in 2024 were 14 percent higher in Kokopo, Lae and Port Moresby. Vegetable prices, on average, in Q4 of 2024 were 23.6 lower in Goroka compared to Q4 of 2023. Compared to Q4 2022, the price of vegetables, on average, in 2024 were 22.1 percent lower in highland markets. Fruits saw mixed price movements between 2023 and 2024: lemon prices in Q4 2024 were 28.4 percent lower, on average, across all markets.

Presentations for School meals in the 21st century – emerging evidence and future directions

Completion report: Agricultural transformation and market integration in the ASEAN region: Responding to food security and inclusiveness concerns

The ATMI-ASEAN project was launched on October 7–8, 2016, in the Philippines. It is a five-year project funded by International Funds for Agriculture Development (IFAD) with a year’s extension due to the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The implementation of the project was led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and co-implemented by the Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA). The ATMI-ASEAN project comprises three main components: Component 1. Policy studies and expert workshops; Component 2. High-level policy forums (HLPFs) and roundtables; and Component 3. Technical assistance for planning and policy development. Each component was scheduled and implemented over the project implementation from 2016 to 2021, then extended for a year to finalize the project implementation affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. This report elaborates on all project outputs throughout the implementation.

Synthesis report: Agricultural transformation and market integration in the ASEAN region: Responding to food security and inclusiveness concerns

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is a regional grouping of Southeast Asian countries formed in 1967 by Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. Brunei Darussalam joined this association in 1984. ASEAN expanded to 10 countries between 1995 and 1999 by extending memberships to Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Viet Nam. These 10 Southeast Asian countries entered into the trade agreement to ensure the free flow of goods, including agricultural products. Agreements related to services and investment were also signed to enhance economic cooperation and to develop an ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). The implementation of the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) in 2003 helped liberalize the intra-ASEAN agricultural trade, which grew steadily during the period under review. Further, the dynamics of intra ASEAN trade show that after the food price crisis of 2007/2008, intra-ASEAN agricultural trade increased sharply, which reflects ASEAN’s efforts to create a food security action plan aimed at improving sustainable food trade among ASEAN members.

Agrifood value chains in India: A state-level analysis using a social accounting matrix

This study describes disparities in per capita income, in the structure of the economy, and in agrifood systems (AFS) across states in India. We use the gross value added (GVA) obtained from state-specific agrifood value chains (AVCs) to describe the size and structure of the AFS in each state of India. This study also presents the size of employment and variability in labor productivity within the AFS across states. A special focus is given to female and youth employment in the state specific AVCs. The 2017/18 state-level social accounting matrix (SAM) for India is the primary data source for estimating statewise GVA from the AFS. Periodic Labor Force Survey data are used to estimate the size of AFS employment. Our results reveal that the bottom half of the Indian population has an average per capita income of US$1,019, 2.5 times lower than that of the top half. India’s AFS is valued at $756 billion, or 31 percent of its GVA. Primary agriculture comprises 59 percent of the AFS, and off-farm activities the rest. The share of off-farm activities in the AFS rises moving from lower-income states to higher-income states, corroborating the theory of structural transformation. The national average share of female workers in total employment is 23 percent and the majority of women who do work are engaged in primary agriculture. The share of women employed in the primary agriculture sector does not change between low- and high-income states in India. In contrast, the share of youth in primary agriculture declines between lower- and higher-income states. Since state governments in India are empowered to design their own policy and development strategies, this study provides an important policy insight to both the federal (central) and state governments.

Child growth and development in rural Papua New Guinea

Stakeholder disconnect: Differences between farmers, extension workers, and researchers on preferred strategies for timely wheat sowing in Bihar, India

Late sowing of wheat is a persistent problem in South Asia despite widespread awareness that it lowers crop yields. We asked 2034 farmers, 33 researchers, and 114 frontline extension workers (EW) in Bihar, India to rank 6 commonly recommended solutions for their effectiveness. Respondents faced repeated rounds of best-worst choices to obtain a full ranking of the options. Responses were analyzed using random utility models. Farmers ranked timely and affordable irrigation as the most effective solution and zero-tillage (ZT) the least effective one; researchers ranked ZT the highest. The EW were somewhere in the middle. A better understanding of the reasons behind the differences in the assessments of researchers, extension personnel, and farmers about what will work the best will generate better solutions.

The case for food system knowledge support system (FS-KSS)

The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) Strategy and Action Plan (2026-2035) is a key framework aimed at transforming Africa’s agrifood systems to achieve sustainable agricultural growth, food security, and economic development across the continent. Building on the lessons from the Malabo Declaration, the Plan emphasizes the need for sustainable food production, inclusivity, and resilience in the face of climate change and other challenges. However, achieving these ambitious goals requires a robust and integrated support system that can provide accurate, real time data, facilitate evidence-based decision-making, and promote accountability among stakeholders. Without a well-functioning knowledge system, the efforts to transform agrifood systems may be hindered by data gaps, limited analytical capacity, and a lack of coordination among various actors. The effectiveness of food systems in Africa is often hindered by data gaps, inconsistencies, and limited capacity for data analysis. These issues compromise the ability of governments and other stakeholders to make informed decisions, implement sound policies, and monitor progress toward national and continental goals such as food security and climate resilience. This is where the Food System Knowledge Support System (FS-KSS) becomes crucial, as it provides the necessary tools to ensure effective implementation of the CAADP Strategy and Action Plan.

The case for post Malabo Agenda implementation guidelines

The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), developed by the African Union (AU) in 2003, marked a significant turning point for Africa’s agricultural development. CAADP’s objective was to transform agriculture into a key driver of economic growth, poverty reduction, and food security across the continent. Through a focus on increasing agricultural productivity and ensuring that agricultural development was aligned with national and regional priorities, CAADP sought to tackle Africa’s persistent challenges of hunger, malnutrition, and economic stagnation. In 2014, the Malabo Declaration was introduced as the second phase of CAADP implementation, with a new set of ambitious targets aimed at ending hunger and halving poverty by 2025. The declaration reinforced the importance of agricultural-led growth and committed African governments to specific goals, including increasing agricultural productivity by at least 6% annually and allocating at least 10% of national budgets to agriculture. It also emphasized sustainable agriculture, resilience to climate change, and equitable access to resources, particularly for women and smallholder farmers.

Comprehensive mapping of food systems is necessary to guide transformation efforts: The case of Rwanda

Rwanda has made significant strides in improving its food systems, with notable progress in reducing malnutrition and stunting, especially among children. Stunting rates declined from over 50% in the early 2000s to 33% by 2020, reflecting the government’s commitment to addressing food insecurity and enhancing nutrition through a range of agricultural and public health initiatives. The country’s Crop Intensification Program (CIP) has played a pivotal role in increasing agricultural productivity, especially for staple crops like maize, beans, and Irish potatoes, which has contributed to better food availability across the country. Despite these achievements, substantial challenges persist. Almost 19% of households still face food insecurity, with the highest prevalence in rural areas. Additionally, malnutrition continues to affect vulnerable populations, with anemia rates among women of reproductive age at 37%, signaling gaps in nutrition security. Environmental concerns, including soil degradation, water scarcity, and climate change, further complicate efforts to sustain agricultural productivity. Approximately 40% of Rwanda’s land is affected by soil erosion, and shifting climate patterns pose increasing risks to agricultural yields. These challenges indicate the need for a more strategic, research-based approach to understanding and transforming Rwanda’s food system.

Farmers brace for a new round of trade wars

As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take up residence at the White House for the second time, US farmers nervously await what is in store for the agricultural sector, particularly in trade. In 2018 and 2019, US agriculture suffered from collateral damage during the previous Trump administration as the president’s unilateral actions on trade against foreign suppliers of US imports had serious repercussions for US agricultural exports.

IFPRI's approach to research

The International Food Policy Research Institute provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end malnutrition in low-and middle-income countries and has played a vital role in informing policies, programs, and investments since its founding in 1975. This document provides a brief introduction to IFPRI and sets out how we approach our research, along with the scope of our current work.

Presentations for Trade disruptions and their impacts on agricultural markets: Looking back and ahead

Can rights-based conditional cash transfers improve children’s nutrition at scale? Evidence from India’s maternity benefit program

This study evaluates the impact of India’s Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana (PMMVY), a large-scale conditional cash transfer (CCT) program targeting women during their first birth, on child nutrition. Using National Family Health Survey (NFHS) data from 2005 to 2021, we assess changes in growth for 296,782 children under five years old before and after PMMVY implementation. To address potential biases, we employ a quasi-experimental approach with a Triple Difference analysis, comparing first- to second-born children of CCT and non-CCT mothers. We find that potential exposure to PMMVY is associated with improvements in weight-for-age and height-for-age z-scores. These effects likely operate through increased pregnancy registration, antenatal care, and immunizations. PMMVY is cost-effective, with a short-run benefit-cost ratio of 1.35. This study underscores the importance of CCT programs targeting mothers in enhancing child nutrition in low- and middle-income countries.

Perceived constraints to healthy diets: Evidence from agrifood system assessments in rural South Asia

The healthfulness of diets in South Asia is limited by socio-economic and public infrastructure challenges. Perceptions about food such as availability, accessibility, desirability, and convenience can impact food choice and ultimately diets. However, there are limited tools to understand consumers’ perceptions of these factors and if perceptions relate to actual food intake. Using a novel tool administered across five rural districts in Bangladesh, India, and Nepal, we quantify the association between food perceptions and food intake. A Likert scale (agree, neutral, disagree) was used to capture respondents’ perceptions about seven food choice drivers (affordability, accessibility, desirability, convenience, food quality, food safety, availability) for a list of six common foods. For each food, principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to identify latent “drivers”. The association between these and diets (using 24-hour dietary recall data) was estimated using multivariable regression analysis. There was considerable heterogeneity across countries with respect to the relative importance of food choice drivers and diet quality. There is a need to measure and understand individual food perceptions that drive food choice to help develop policies that promote healthier food choices.

Intrahousehold dynamics in South Asia: Understanding the relationships between women's empowerment, task sharing, decision making, and diets among women

Despite the growing evidence on the role of women in agriculture and nutrition, interlinkages between empowerment among women, gendered task allocation, and nutrition are rarely studied together. Using data from the Transforming Agrifood Systems in South Asia (TAFSSA), a household survey that used a plate-to-farm assessment approach in three countries (Bangladesh, India and Nepal), the paper investigates the associations between empowerment of women, gendered task allocation, decision-making among women, and diets among women. Our findings reveal complex and context-specific differences in associations between task allocation, decision-making and empowerment among. While agency in decision-making among women is positively associated with empowerment in all three country contexts, associations between gendered task allocation and empowerment vary. The share of tasks performed by females, particularly in agriculture and food preparation) is positively associated with empowerment among women, but the proportion of tasks shared equally between males and females does not necessarily empower women. Gendered task allocation and empowerment among women are not significantly associated with diets of women in the three countries, owing to the greater importance of broader socio-economic and context-specific factors such as wealth, education, and regional factors in explaining the variance in dietary outcomes. These findings highlight the need to take a holistic approach that addresses gender norms and household resource constraints to improving empowerment of women, while also addressing local accessibility/availability of nutritious foods to enhance the quality of diets of women.

IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, December 2024

Highlights
Retail prices of maize increased by 15 percent in December.
Maize prices were lowest in the Northern region, where informal imports from Tanzania enter the country, and increased southward.
At the market exchange rate, retail prices of maize in Malawi were similar to those in Zambia and lower than in Mozambique and Zimbabwe.

Rural diets under pressure: Food environments and their influence on food choice in South Asia

The rapid South Asia rural transformation, driven by globalization and industrialization, has introduced a complex interaction between traditional and modern food systems. This study characterizes rural food environments in five districts across Bangladesh, India, and Nepal, focusing on how affordability, availability, accessibility, desirability, and convenience shape dietary choices and quality. Through extensive household and market surveys, we find rural diets characterized by low intake of healthy foods and moderate to high consumption of unhealthy options, influenced by a lack of affordability and the desirability and widespread availability of cheap ultra-processed products in rural markets. Snacking plays a significant role in shaping dietary patterns, promoting both dietary diversity and unhealthy food consumption. These findings provide essential insights for designing interventions tailored to rural food systems, supporting efforts to improve nutrition and health outcomes in rapidly changing markets.

Use of fertilizers in agriculture sector of Tajikistan

Tajikistan’s heavily relies on imported mineral fertilizers. Fertilizers, particularly nitrogen and phosphorus, are crucial for enhancing crop yields, increasing income and supporting farmers’ livelihoods. However, limited access to this input, along with rising global fertilizer prices, has restricted farmers’ ability to fully benefit from them. Particularly due to the result of this, agricultural productivity has been constrained, affecting food security and farmer incomes.

Key challenges
• Fertilizer application rates, particularly for both mineral and organic types, remain below the recommended norms set by the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA). Farmers across the country, especially smallholders, struggle to apply adequate amounts of fertilizers due to high costs and limited access.
• Access to high-quality mineral fertilizers is further hindered by the country’s dependency on imports, which can exacerbate local price volatility.
• Fertilizer use varies across different regions of Tajikistan. In Khatlon and Sughd regions fertilizer use is higher, particularly for cotton and vegetable farming. However, in other regions fertilizer use remains comparatively low, limiting agricultural productivity.
• While fertilizers are essential for improving crop yields, excessive or inefficient use can lead to environmental risks, including soil salinity and degradation. Careful management of fertilizer use is needed to prevent harm to biodiversity and soil ecosystems, particularly in regions with intensive farming, such as those producing cotton.

Recommended actions
• Promote training on organic fertilizer benefits and sustainable practices like composting. Support better manure management to increase organic fertilizer application.
• Abolishing or reducing value added tax and import tariffs for fertilizers could make them more cost-effective and attainable for farmers.
• Introduce targeted subsidies for mineral fertilizers to make fertilizers more affordable and accessible.
• Promote efficient fertilizer use and broader sustainable practices like soil conservation and integrated pest management to ensure long-term productivity.

Agricultural advisory services in Tajikistan: Private sector role

Agricultural advisory services (AAS) may play a crucial role in supporting Tajikistan’s food security and rural development by helping farmers to increase productivity, adopt new technologies, and access to the markets. Despite their significance, AAS remain underdeveloped with limited coverage and accessibility. Strengthening AAS through government support, private sector engagement, and in partnership with NGOs can address the challenges and contribute to sustainable growth of the sector.

Key challenges and developments
• Limited coverage and accessibility: In 2021, around 5 percent of Tajikistan’s farms and 14 percent of arable land benefited from professional AAS, while over 90 percent of farmers need these services.
• Resource constraints: Financial needs and limited number of AAS providers are the main constraints to scaling-up the services to meet nationwide farmers' needs.
• Positive impacts of current initiatives: Despite limited resources, Sarob and Neksigol Mushovir private and non-profit cooperatives through providing AAS to the farmers contributes on yield increases across the country, at the same time reduce an irrigation water use.
• Digital innovation: Neksigol Mushovir’s AgroSpace platform, with mobile applications, e-library resources, and online consultations, has significantly improved access to agricultural knowledge.
• Climate-smart agriculture: Sarob’s initiatives in climate-smart practices, such as zero tillage and water-saving technologies, have reduced inputs use and an increased crops yield.

Recommended actions
• Expand institutional support: Public support to scaling up of the AAS is crucial.
• Enhance public-private partnerships: Encourage collaboration between public institutions, private sector, and NGOs to pool resources and knowledge is vital to expanding AAS to the farmers.
• Enhance digital solutions for AAS: Invest in digital platforms to provide accessible, low-cost advisory services, real-time market information, and climate adaptation tools to the farmers.
• Focus on climate resilience: Scale up climate-smart agricultural practices and provide training in water management, pest control, and sustainable farming techniques to enhance productivity under changing climate conditions.

Agrifood trade in Tajikistan

Despite being an agrarian economy, Tajikistan heavily relies on agrifood imports. Agrifood imports have increased sharply in recent years, while export growth has been modest. This brief outline the key trends in Tajikistan’s agrifood trade and provides policy recommendations to reduce import dependence and boost domestic agricultural production.
Key trends in agrifood trade
• Between 2000 and 2023, Tajikistan’s agrifood imports grew 16 times, with vegetable products (primarily cereals) and prepared foodstuffs (sugar, animal fodder, flour, oil) accounting for 83 percent of total imports.
• While imports have surged, agrifood exports have grown by only 2.2 times during the same period. Exports remain concentrated in a few products, with dry fruits and nuts making up 75 percent of total agrifood exports in 2023.
• Processed food imports have significantly increased, reflecting both changing consumer preferences and domestic production gaps. This shift, particularly in urban areas, underscores the growing role of imports in meeting demand for food products beyond basic staples.
• Tajikistan’s agrifood imports and exports are dominated by trade with Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries. These long-standing trade ties reflect logistical advantages and shared histories. However, this reliance on a narrow set of trading partners limits the potential to access new, more lucrative markets.
Recommended actions
• Tajikistan needs to focus on modernizing its agricultural sector to raise productivity and lessening the country’s reliance on imports.
• Strengthening Tajikistan’s agrifood processing sector will help reduce the growing dependency on processed food imports. Investments in food processing infrastructure and the promotion of local agribusinesses could meet the rising demand for processed products.
• Diversifying the range of exported agrifood products is crucial. Developing processing industries and value added products can help reduce dependency on a few commodities and open doors to new export markets.
• While CIS countries are important trading partners, Tajikistan should explore opportunities to expand market access outside the region. Improving the quality of agrifood exports and meeting international standards will enable the country to participate in more global value chains and trade agreements.

Assessing food acquisition, preparation, and consumption practices in South Asia: A systematic review of assessment tools

Assessing behaviors related to food choice at individual- and household-levels is essential for improving household diets, but assessment tools are limited. We conducted a systematic review to identify gaps in existing assessment tools for food acquisition, preparation, and household consumption practices in South Asia, wherein diets are rapidly changing, and triple burden of malnutrition is emerging.

Systematic search of three academic databases (PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science Core Collection) using pre-defined keywords were undertaken to identify studies assessing food acquisition, food preparation, and household consumption practices in South Asia, published in English between 2000 and December 2023. Following PRISMA guidelines, two reviewers independently screened titles, abstracts, and full texts based on the inclusion criteria, and extracted data on study characteristics and the assessment tools used to examine the food choice behaviors.

Of 11,288 unique articles identified, 46 were included for synthesis. Food acquisition behaviors were assessed by 25 studies, food preparation by eight studies and household consumption practices by 26 studies. Most studies used quantitative methods (n=30), some used qualitative (n=13), and few used mixed methods (n=3), and varied by type of behavior assessed. Likert scales were the most widely used tools of quantitative assessments, while semi-structured interviews were the most common for qualitative assessments. Across the 46 studies, 59 different tools were used to assess food-related behaviors and only 14 studies claimed using validated tools and many studies did not include the full tool in the text or supplement (n=22).

Our review highlights the need for expanding food choice behavior assessments to include the less-studied populations such as exploring young children and adolescents’ food choice behaviors and developing a contextually adaptable repository of validated tools to advance our understanding of food choice behaviors in various settings.

The political economy of food self sufficiency policies and food security in African countries

Food security deteriorated in Africa during the past decade, and the number of undernourished people has been increasing since 2010. The prevalence of undernourishment is now above pre-pandemic levelsat 9.7% compared with 7.2% in 2019, and Africa reports the highest level in the world. External factors, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have contributed to this increase Projections show that almost 600 million people in Africa will be chronically undernourished in 2030. Moreover, Africa is not on track for SDG2, eradicate hunger by 2030. To achieve food security and reduce the number of undernourished people, many policymakers are advocating for food self-sufficiency. Relying on local production and promoting it through various policy measures, including restrictive trade policies, appears to many to be a natural solution. Yet, there has been a long-standing debate among analysts as to whether trade restrictions are a good strategy, especially in Africa, to achieve food security. The proponents of food self-sufficiency argue that trade liberalization increases food dependency (and import bills) and makes consumers vulnerable to external shocks in food availability, as well as exposing them to unhealthy foods. They advocate for stimulating local production with subsidies and trade restrictions. For the opponents, opening borders to international trade is a guarantee of cheap and easy access to diversified food products. Furthermore, by partially decoupling local markets from domestic shocks, trade can also help stabilize domestic food markets. This report contributes to that debate. Using both qualitative and quantitative analysis, we reach the conclusion that food self-sufficiency is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for food security. Food security is a multidimensional concept, and only two dimensions– availability and utilization—seem to be affected by food self-sufficiency in Africa. Also, while public support to agriculture can help achieve food self-sufficiency, its impact is not linear, and beyond a certain threshold, diminishing returns are observed. Overall, different approaches can achieve food security, and there is no “one-size-fits-all strategy.” International or regional trade can contribute to food security and stabilize domestic food markets, as regional production is usually less volatile than domestic supply.

Agriculture sector reform and sectoral programs in Tajikistan

Tajikistan’s agricultural sector, despite its challenging environment and limited natural resources, remains a vital component of the national economy, providing employment and income for a significant portion of the rural population. However, the sector faces critical challenges including inefficient land use, outdated farming practices, inadequate infrastructure, and the lingering influence of Soviet-era agricultural systems. Since the early 1990s, Tajikistan has embarked on a series of agricultural reforms aimed at improving productivity and sustainability. Key reforms include land redistribution, water sector restructuring, and the adoption of policies to modernize the agricultural sector. The “Agriculture Reform Program” (ARP) for 2012-2020 was a major initiative targeting structural changes in land and water management, as well as the reorientation of the Ministry of Agriculture from a central planning body to a facilitator and regulator.

What adults in rural South Asia eat and when they eat it: Evidence from Bangladesh, India, and Nepal

Background Poor diets pose a threat to all forms of malnutrition and diet-related noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). Data on dietary patterns are scarce in South Asia.

Objectives We sought to describe overall diet quality, intake of foods and food groups, and eating occasions among adults in rural South Asia.

Methods Data were from five districts across Bangladesh (n=2,802 individuals), India (n=1,672), and Nepal (n=1,451). The Global Diet Quality Score (GDQS) application was used to measure intake of foods on the previous day, with each food tagged to an eating occasion. Diet quality and the risk of diet-related noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) were described using GDQS total (0–49), GDQS positive (0–32) and GDQS negative (0–17) metrics for overall, healthy, and unhealthy food intake respectively.

Results Diet quality was low, with similar scores across countries for GDQS total (17-19 depending on country), GDQS positive (7–8) and GDQS negative (10–12), indicating low intake of healthy foods as the main contributor to poor diets. Over 90% of adults had levels of GQDS scores associated with moderate/high risk for diet-related NCDs, with the proportion at high risk in Bangladesh being 2-3x higher than other countries. Across sites, intake of refined grains (white rice), sweets (sugar, biscuits), and white tubers (potatoes) was common. One-third of adults did not eat breakfast in Nepal, and snacking was twice as common in males (63%) versus females (33%) in Bangladesh.

Conclusions These findings highlight the need to improve diets in rural South Asia and may help inform interventions targeting food intake patterns.

Does rural non-farm employment relieve or exacerbate the agricultural diversification-farm efficiency tradeoff: The case of aquaculture in Bangladesh

This paper studies how rural non-farm employment conditions the relationship between agricultural diversification and fish production efficiency. Competition for scarce productive resources typically implies a compromise between agricultural diversification and efficiency. Yet, the potential for non-farm income to resolve this tradeoff remains understudied. Cash from non-farm sources may support productivity-enhancing input purchase, thereby improving efficiency. On the other hand, by diversifying both on- and off-farm, household resources such as labor may be stretched too thin, lowering fish production efficiency. Using micro-level data on fish farming households in Southern Bangladesh, we show that at higher levels of the non-farm income share, diversification into crops results in significant allocative inefficiencies. Results are inconclusive for the technical efficiency measure.

Determinants and impacts of contract farming: Evidence from cultivation of onion, okra and pomegranate in Maharashtra, India

This study investigates the impact of contract farming in onion, okra and pomegranate production on profits of smallholder farmers in India. It also investigates the determinants of farmers’ participation in contract farming. The study is based on a survey of 1,131 farmers from Maharashtra, India engaged in the cultivation of these three crops.This study uses instrumental variable regressions and quasi-experimental methods to decipher the impact of contract farming.The study reveals that contract farming ensures higher returns for smallholders, enables their access to high-end markets and brings in risk-sharing with protection during price fluctuations. Farm size and farmers’ risk perceptions are significantly associated with their participation in contract farming.The study is based on cross-sectional data, which presents limitations on considering unobserved farmer-level individual heterogeneity.The study shows that contracts highlight the functioning of the contractor/integrator on both the input and output sides of the market. By providing better-quality inputs on credit and at discounted prices and by providing training, the integrator helps small farmers meet international food safety and quality standards, a historically difficult challenge for smallholders in India.

Polycentric governance of commons through multi-stakeholder platforms: Insights from two case studies in India

This paper examines the complexities of commons governance, focusing on the role of multistakeholder platforms (MSPs) in addressing tensions among diverse decision-making centers. Drawing on the experiences of the Indian NGO Foundation for Ecological Security (FES) in Gujarat and Odisha, the study analyzes two MSPs operating at the block level, engaging communities, government, and private sector actors. Through surveys, interviews, and analysis of institutional reports, the research identifies key benefits of MSPs, including enhanced multi-stakeholder engagement, scale, and enabling conditions. It argues that MSPs can effectively support polycentric governance by facilitating inter-community collaboration, strengthening local voices, and building trust over time. The study also underscores the importance of external actors like NGOs in supporting community agency and fostering collaboration across different governance levels.

Levelling the field: A review of the ICT revolution and agricultural extension in the Global South

Information and communications technology has evolved significantly over the last seven decades, beginning with radio and video vans and culminating in the rise of smartphones and mobile internet in remote areas of the Global South. While ICT is an integral part of agricultural extension, little is known about how these changes have influenced agricultural extension practices. After a systematic review of 131 papers, we find that changes in ICT have shaped agricultural extension, enabling a shift from linear dissemination and “one-way communication” to co-innovation and farmer-to-farmer learning. The results indicate the potential for smartphones and mobile internet to democratize agricultural extension.

Biofortification as a food-based strategy to improve nutrition in high-income countries: A scoping review

Biofortification (increasing the micronutrient content of food before harvest) has been successfully used to nutritionally improve staple foods in low- and middle-income countries. This approach could also help address micronutrient shortfalls in at-risk populations in high-income countries (HICs), however, the potential of biofortification interventions in this context is not well understood. The aim of this scoping review is to assess the nature and extent of available research evidence on biofortified foods in relation to human consumption in HICs. Literature searches were conducted in MEDLINE, WoS, ProQuest, CINAHL, AGRIS and Epistemonikos. Forty-six peer-reviewed articles were included. Most research was conducted in the USA (n = 15) and Italy (n = 11), on cereal crops (n = 14) and vegetables (n = 11), and on selenium (n = 12) and provitamin A (n = 11). Seven research domains were identified in the literature: bioavailability (n = 17); nutrient stability (n = 11); opinions and attitudes (n = 9); functionality (n = 9); sensory properties (n = 2); safety (n = 1); and modeling (n = 1). Evidence from HICs in each domain is limited. There is a need for more research particularly in areas sensitive to the cultural and socio-economic context.

Designing and implementing experiments within local bureaucratic systems: A cautionary tale from an educator incentive program

Collaborating with governments to co-develop pilot programs and integrate them into local administrative systems is increasingly regarded as a key strategy for achieving scalability and sustainability. This study examines a pilot initiative designed in partnership with the Elementary and Secondary Education (E&SE) Department in Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, offering important lessons for such collaborations. While the intent to operate within existing bureaucratic frameworks was commendable, it also limited the design and execution of a randomized controlled trial (RCT). This paper explores institutional factors that hindered the RCT's implementation, resulting in missed opportunities to evaluate critical design elements. The pilot centered on promotion-based incentives for educators and had null effects on a variety of educator and student outcomes. However, using unique video-based evidence, it objectively identifies the implementation challenges and describes the insights gained for more effective co-design and integration of future pilot programs within governmental systems.

Neonatal mortality risk of vulnerable newborns by fine stratum of gestational age and birthweight for 230 679 live births in nine low- and middle-income countries, 2000-2017.

Objective
We aimed to understand the mortality risks of vulnerable newborns (defined as preterm and/or born weighing smaller or larger compared to a standard population), in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

Design
Descriptive multi-country, secondary analysis of individual-level study data of babies born since 2000.

Setting
Sixteen subnational, population-based studies from nine LMICs in sub-Saharan Africa, Southern and Eastern Asia, and Latin America.

Population
Live birth neonates.

Methods
We categorically defined five vulnerable newborn types based on size (large- or appropriate- or small-for-gestational age [LGA, AGA, SGA]), and term (T) and preterm (PT): T + LGA, T + SGA, PT + LGA, PT + AGA, and PT + SGA, with T + AGA (reference). A 10-type definition included low birthweight (LBW) and non-LBW, and a four-type definition collapsed AGA/LGA into one category. We performed imputation for missing birthweights in 13 of the studies.

Main Outcome Measures
Median and interquartile ranges by study for the prevalence, mortality rates and relative mortality risks for the four, six and ten type classification.

Results
There were 238 143 live births with known neonatal status. Four of the six types had higher mortality risk: T + SGA (median relative risk [RR] 2.8, interquartile range [IQR] 2.0–3.2), PT + LGA (median RR 7.3, IQR 2.3–10.4), PT + AGA (median RR 6.0, IQR 4.4–13.2) and PT + SGA (median RR 10.4, IQR 8.6–13.9). T + SGA, PT + LGA and PT + AGA babies who were LBW, had higher risk compared with non-LBW babies.

Conclusions
Small and/or preterm babies in LIMCs have a considerably increased mortality risk compared with babies born at term and larger. This classification system may advance the understanding of the social determinants and biomedical risk factors along with improved treatment that is critical for newborn health.

Food transfers, cash transfers, behavior change communication and child nutrition: Evidence from Bangladesh

This paper reports the results of two 2-year randomized control trials in two poor rural areas of Bangladesh. Treatment arms included monthly cash transfers, monthly food rations of equivalent value to the cash transfers, and mixed monthly cash and food transfers, and treatment arms—one with food and one with cash—that combined transfers with nutrition-behavior communication change (BCC). This design enables a comparison of transfer modalities within the same experiment. Intent-to-treat estimators show that cash transfers and nutrition BCC had a large impact on nutritional status, a 0.25 standard deviation increase in height-for-age z-scores and a 7.8 percentage point decrease in stunting prevalence. No other treatment arm affected anthropometric outcomes. Mechanisms underlying these impacts are explored. Improved diets—particularly increased intake of animal source foods in the cash plus BCC arm—are consistent with the improvements observed in this paper.

Diets, fruit and vegetables consumption, and nutritional status in Benin: A scoping review

Unhealthy diets, including low fruit and vegetables (F&V) intake, contribute to morbidity and mortality related to non-communicable diseases. Designing culturally appropriate interventions to improve diets and F&V intake requires an in-depth understanding of individual-level dietary patterns, household consumption patterns, and nutritional status resulting from inadequate F&V intake. In this scoping review, we summarised the literature on diets, F&V intake, and nutritional status in Benin. We searched PubMed from 2012 to August 2024 to identify articles on diets and nutritional status, and from 2002 to August 2024 to identify articles on F&V intake. We included 36 articles on diets, 27 on F&V intake, and 16 on nutritional status. Existing literature demonstrated that Beninese diets are cereal-based and monotonous, characterised by low diversity and low F&V intake across all population groups. Available evidence indicated a high burden of undernutrition in children <5 years of age, a rising prevalence of overnutrition in women of reproductive age, and a high prevalence of overnutrition in adults. Evidence on how diets and F&V intake vary by urban/rural location, season, and socioeconomic characteristics was limited and inconsistent. Two evaluations of garden irrigation programmes assessed impacts on women's dietary diversity and F&V consumption. Additional research is needed to improve our understanding of diets, F&V intake, and diet-related nutritional challenges and how they evolve over time and across different population groups. Understanding these gaps can help identify entry points and targets for interventions to improve diet quality and F&V intake in Benin.

Using a list experiment to measure intimate partner violence: Cautionary evidence from Ethiopia

While indirect response methods are increasingly used in surveys to measure sensitive behaviours such as intimate partner violence, important questions persist around how respondents understand and react to these methods. This article presents evidence from a list experiment measuring multiple forms of intimate partner violence in rural Ethiopia. We find that the list experiment does not generate estimates of intimate partner violence that are higher than direct response questions; rather, prevalence estimates using the list experiment are lower vis-à-vis prevalence estimates using the direct reports, and are sometimes even negative. We provide suggestive evidence that this pattern may reflect ‘fleeing’ behaviour by respondents who do not wish to be associated with statements indicating their exposure to intimate partner violence.

Prospects of crop insurance for sustenance of farmers' livelihood during GM cotton crop failure in Indian Punjab

Despite the susceptibility of cotton crops to pest attacks in the Malwa Region of Indian Punjab, no crop insurance policy has been implemented there– not even the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY), which is a central scheme. Therefore, this paper attempts to gauge the likely impact of the PMFBY on Punjab cotton farmers and assess the changes needed for greater uptake and effectiveness of PMFBY.The authors have conducted a primary survey to conduct this study. Initially, the authors compared the costs of cotton production with the returns in two scenarios (with and without insurance). Additionally, the authors have applied a logistic regression framework to examine the determinants of the willingness of farmers to participate in the crop insurance market.The study finds that net returns of cotton crops are conventionally small and insufficient to cope with damages from crop failure. Yet, PMFBY will require some modifications in the premium rate and the level of indemnity for its greater uptake among Punjab cotton farmers. Additionally, using the logistic regression framework, the authors find that an increase in awareness about crop insurance and farmers' perceptions about their crop failure in the near future reduces the willingness of the farmers to participate in the crop insurance markets.The present study looks for the viability of PMFBY in Indian Punjab for the cotton crop, which can also be extended to other crops.Punjab could also use crop insurance to encourage diversification in agriculture. There is a need for special packages for diversified crops under any crop insurance policy. Crops susceptible to volatility due to climate-related factors should be identified and provided with a special insurance package.There exist very scant studies that have discussed the viability of a central crop insurance scheme in the agricultural-rich state of India, i.e. Punjab. Moreover, they do not also focus on crop losses accruing due to pest and insect attacks.

Proceedings of National Seminar on Regulations and Governance Issues in India’s Seed Sector

India has a very mature and vibrant seed sector with a wide network of public and private sector enterprises working closely together to make quality seeds available to farmers at affordable prices, ensuring seed security in the country. Presently ranked fifth in the global seed trade with a reported turnover of more than USD 6 billion India is likely to double this figure by 2028 due to a healthy growth rate (CAGR) which is already faster than the global rate. With improved seed replacement rate (SRR) of major food security crops, better variety replacement rate (VRR) in most crops and a declining informal trade of farm saved seed (FSS), the industry is showing a strong upswing in its growth. Much of this progress can be attributed to the continued scientific contributions of both the public and private sector which were assisted by the enabling policies of the government. A National Seminar on ‘Regulations and Governance Issues in Indian Seed Sector’ was organized on 26-27 September 2023 at New Delhi by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), South Asia Regional Office, New Delhi, in collaboration with CGIAR Initiative on Seed Equal, Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), New Delhi and the Federation of Seed Industry of India (FSII), New Delhi. The Seminar was Inaugurated by Dr. Himanshu Pathak, Secretary, Department of Agricultural Research & Education (DARE) and Director General, ICAR. Dr. P.K. Singh, Agriculture Commissioner, Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers’ Welfare, Govt. of India, presided over the Inaugural Session, which was also addressed by Dr. M. Ramasami, Chairman, FSII. A total of 122 scientists, industry professionals, policy makers and other stakeholders, participated in the seminar.

Conflicts, crop choice, and agricultural investments: Empirical evidence from Nigeria

Conflict remains a major driver of poverty in Africa. Conflicts and political instability in the region have been increasing recently and are drawing more attention in public discourse. While it is widely acknowledged that conflicts disrupt agricultural production and food systems, the full extent of the damage inflicted on the lives and livelihoods of farming households and the mechanisms to redress this harm remain poorly understood. In particular, the link between violent conflicts and households’ land allocation and related agricultural investment decisions remains understudied. In this study, we use geocoded longitudinal data along with detailed agricultural panel household surveys in Nigeria to assess the impact of violent conflicts on crop choice decisions and related agricultural investments. Specifically, we explore how farmers’ land allocation and agricultural investment decisions relate or respond to the outbreak and intensity of violent conflicts. We find that violent conflicts are associated with a reduction in the share of both land area cultivated and area harvested. We also find suggestive evidence that violent conflicts may shape farmers’ crop choices and related investments, as violent conflicts are associated with reduction in the share of land allocated to long-term crops (e.g., perennial crops, trees, roots and tubers). Overall, our findings suggest that violent conflicts can negatively influence farmers’ agricultural investments directly by affecting both land utilization patterns and portfolio allocation across activities with varying returns to investments.

The role of industrial clustering: From layoff to self-employment after the Chinese state-owned enterprise reform

Relapse after recovery from acute malnutrition

Globally, severe acute malnutrition affects 13·6 million children.1 The WHO-endorsed community-based management of acute malnutrition (CMAM) model is effective in achieving high recovery. However, there is increasing recognition that relapse after recovery is a problem, with a growing number of studies aiming to understand and quantify relapse burden and risk factors.2,3 Knowledge gaps remain in our understanding of the problem and its drivers due to methodological issues, lack of control groups, and inconsistent reporting.

Does aid induce foreign direct investment: Updated evidence from a quasi-experiment

While the catalytic effect of aid on foreign direct investment (FDI) has long been an implicit consensus among many policymakers and practitioners, assessments of this causal relationship remain limited and are not always reliable. To mitigate this evidence gap, this study applies an instrumental variable approach that leverages the graduation of the International Development Association (IDA) income threshold as a quasi-experiment to identify the causal linkage between foreign aid and FDI. The analysis reveals that a 1 percent drop in the ratio of aid to gross national income leads to a decline in FDI relative to gross domestic product by 0.9 percent in 42 developing countries from 1987 to 2019. In face of the aid shock induced by IDA graduation, governments in recipient countries restrict their financial policy openness, through which aid could significantly impact subsequent foreign private investment. Results emphasize the necessity of concerted policy interventions to mitigate this negative aid shock.

Caste, religion and the labor force participation of women: Evidence from India

Technology intensification and farmers’ welfare: A case study from Karnataka, a semi-arid state of India

JEL Codes: Q16, Q54, Q55, C13

The minimum dietary diversity for women indicator can be extended to children and adolescents aged 4-15 years as a proxy population indicator for good micronutrient adequacy of diets in low- and middle-income countries

Background
The response to the global call for more data on children’s and adolescents’ diets and nutrition is limited by the lack of straightforward practical indicators to track their diet quality. On the basis of a food group score compiled from 10 food groups (FGS-10), the minimum dietary diversity for women, calculated as FGS-10 ≥ 5, is a validated proxy population indicator for better micronutrient intake adequacy for adult women in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).
Objectives
This study aims to validate FGS-10 and its related cutoffs against micronutrient intake adequacy in 4–15-y-old children/adolescents in LMICs.
Methods
We conducted a secondary data analysis of 9 datasets of repeated 24-h recalls or weighed records including 11,524 children/adolescents aged 4–15 y, collected in 7 countries (Burkina Faso, Ghana, Ecuador, India, Malawi, Uganda, and Zambia) between 2007 and 2022. For each dataset and the pooled sample (meta-analysis), we assessed the association between FGS-10 and the mean probability of adequacy (MPA) of intake over 8 micronutrients (MPA-8), and the performance of several FGS-10 cutoffs in predicting acceptable (≥0.60) and good (≥0.80) levels of MPA-8. Robustness analyses used the 7 datasets with data on 11 micronutrients (MPA-11).
Results
FGS-10 ranged from 3.0 to 4.8 across datasets, and the proportion of children/adolescents with acceptable MPA-8 ranged from 8.4% to 74%. Positive and significant associations between FGS-10 and MPA-8 were found in all datasets and the pooled sample. The optimal cutoff varied across datasets from FGS-10 ≥ 4 to FGS-10 ≥ 6. In the pooled sample, FGS-10 ≥ 5 had the highest performances in predicting acceptable and good levels of MPA-8. FGS-10 ≥ 5 was also the best proxy indicator for MPA-11 ≥ 0.80.
Conclusions
The continuous FGS-10 and dichotomous FGS-10 ≥ 5 may be extended to 4–15-y-old children/adolescents in LMICs. In this population, FGS-10 ≥ 5 can be used as a proxy population indicator for good micronutrient adequacy of diets.

Sustainable poverty reduction through social assistance: Modality, context, and complementary programming in Bangladesh

Social assistance programs can increase consumption and reduce poverty, but less is known about whether these impacts are sustained after programs end, or how design and context influence sustainability. Using data collected in two regions of Bangladesh four years after a randomized intervention ended, we find that combining cash transfers with complementary programming led to sustained increases in consumption and reductions in poverty. Combining food transfers with complementary programming showed similar patterns, to a lesser extent. Cash alone had context-specific sustained effects; food alone had no sustained impacts. Results suggest that context, modality, and complementary programming matter for sustained impacts.

Resilience in technical efficiency and enabling factors: Insights from panel farm enterprise surveys in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

Governance and resilience as entry points for transforming food systems in the countdown to 2030

Due to complex interactions, changes in any one area of food systems are likely to impact—and possibly depend on—changes in other areas. Here we present the first annual monitoring update of the indicator framework proposed by the Food Systems Countdown Initiative, with new qualitative analysis elucidating interactions across indicators. Since 2000, we find that 20 of 42 indicators with time series have been trending in a desirable direction, indicating modest positive change. Qualitative expert elicitation assessed governance and resilience indicators to be most connected to other indicators across themes, highlighting entry points for action—particularly governance action. Literature review and country case studies add context to the assessed interactions across diets, environment, livelihoods, governance and resilience indicators, helping different actors understand and navigate food systems towards desirable change.Due to complex interactions, changes in any one area of food systems are likely to impact—and possibly depend on—changes in other areas. Here we present the first annual monitoring update of the indicator framework proposed by the Food Systems Countdown Initiative, with new qualitative analysis elucidating interactions across indicators. Since 2000, we find that 20 of 42 indicators with time series have been trending in a desirable direction, indicating modest positive change. Qualitative expert elicitation assessed governance and resilience indicators to be most connected to other indicators across themes, highlighting entry points for action—particularly governance action. Literature review and country case studies add context to the assessed interactions across diets, environment, livelihoods, governance and resilience indicators, helping different actors understand and navigate food systems towards desirable change.

Shocks and stability of risk and time preferences among poor rural households in Ethiopia

This paper examines the effects of shocks on temporal stability of risk and time preferences of rural households within a developing country context characterized by frequent droughts, chronic food insecurity, and low levels of education. Leveraging a three-wave large and diverse household panel data that elicits preferences every two years for more than 6,500 individuals from over 5,600 sample rural households in Ethiopia, we analyze the effects of droughts (self-reported) and rainfall shortfalls on household risk and time preferences. Our findings show that households become more risk-averse and impatient after experiencing drought and rainfall shocks; the change in risk preferences is more notable among households that experience recurrent droughts and multiple covariate shocks during the same period.

Assessing global price shocks and mitigation policies on welfare and food security in Nigeria

Variations in agricultural and energy prices have direct and cascading effects on economic and agri-food systems. In this study, we developed a dynamic general equilibrium model to simulate the impact of the global price shocks induced by the Russia-Ukraine war on welfare and food security in Nigeria. In addition, we analysed the effectiveness of different policy options, specifically a reduction in indirect taxes and an increase in cash transfers to affected households, in the short and long term. The results showed that the shocks create opportunities for Nigeria, particularly in the trade, livestock, and agricultural sectors. This leads to an increase in GDP, employment, and incomes. However, these effects fade over time due to the rise in food prices that negatively affects food consumption and some food security indicators. Moreover, the comparative analysis of mitigation scenarios revealed that targeted public cash transfers to households are more effective than reduction in consumption taxes on food in mitigating the negative effects on households.

Diets, fruit and vegetable intake and nutritional status among children, adolescents and adults in the Philippines: A scoping review

Suboptimal diets contribute to the risk of malnutrition and non-communicable diseases across the life course. Globally, intakes of fruit and vegetables (F&V) fall below recommendations, including in the Philippines. To promote F&V intakes, understanding the extent of inadequate intakes across population groups and key drivers of dietary patterns is needed. This narrative scoping review was conducted to map the diet, F&V intakes and nutritional status in the Philippines. PubMed was searched using keywords specific to diet, F&V intake, and nutritional status, with 50, 24 and 22 articles meeting the inclusion criteria for diet, F&V intake, and nutritional status, respectively. Available evidence indicates that across all population and sociodemographic groups, diets lacked diversity, with high intakes of energy-dense, nutrient-poor foods, such as refined rice and sugar-based foods and beverages, contributing to inadequate micronutrient intakes. Intakes of F&V were especially low across all population groups. Stunting/short height, wasting and underweight were prevalent among children and adolescents, and micronutrient deficiencies (iron, zinc, vitamin A) were common among children < 5 years of age. More than one-quarter of adults were overweight or obese and demonstrated poor cardiometabolic health. A lack of published evidence identified through this search reported on pregnant and lactating women and women of reproductive age. Published evaluations assessing the impact of interventions or programmes to improve diets or F&V intake were limited. Additional research to fill these gaps will help design interventions and target entry points to improve diet diversity and F&V intakes across all population groups.

Vulnerability of Nigerian maize traders to a confluence of climate, violence, disease and cost shocks

Purpose
We study five exogenous shocks: climate, violence, price hikes, spoilage and the COVID-19 lockdown. We analyze the association between these shocks and trader characteristics, reflecting trader vulnerability.

Design/methodology/approach
Using primary survey data on 1,100 Nigerian maize traders for 2021 (controlling for shocks in 2017), we use probit models to estimate the probabilities of experiencing climate, violence, disease and cost shocks associated with trader characteristics (gender, size and region) and to estimate the probability of vulnerability (experiencing severe impacts).

Findings
Traders are prone to experiencing more than one shock, which increases the intensity of the shocks. Price shocks are often accompanied by violence, climate and COVID-19 shocks. The poorer northern region is disproportionately affected by shocks. Northern traders experience more price shocks while Southern traders are more affected by violence shocks given their dependence on long supply chains from the north for their maize. Female traders are more likely to experience violent events than men who tend to be more exposed to climate shocks.

Research limitations/implications
The data only permit analysis of the general degree of impact of a shock rather than quantifying lost income.

Originality/value
This paper is the first to analyze the incidence of multiple shocks on grain traders and the unequal distribution of negative impacts. It is the first such in Africa based on a large sample of grain traders from a primary survey.

Information framing effects on diet choices among Chinese urban residents

Rethinking responses to the world’s water crises

What do urban consumers want? Findings from a discrete choice experiment on the preference for locally produced staple food in Central Africa: Evidence from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

Does participation in mining activities affect the profitability of food crops production? Evidence from Ghana

The effect of prenatal balanced energy and protein supplementation on gestational weight gain: An individual participant data meta-analysis in low- and middle-income countries

Background
Understanding the effects of balanced energy and protein (BEP) supplements on gestational weight gain (GWG) and how the effects differ depending on maternal characteristics and the nutritional composition of the supplements will inform the implementation of prenatal BEP interventions.

Methods and findings
Individual participant data from 11 randomized controlled trials of prenatal BEP supplements (N = 12,549, with 5,693 in the BEP arm and 6,856 in the comparison arm) in low- and middle-income countries were used. The primary outcomes included GWG adequacy (%) and the estimated total GWG at delivery as continuous outcomes, and severely inadequate (<70% adequacy), inadequate GWG (<90% adequacy), and excessive GWG (>125% adequacy) as binary outcomes; all variables were calculated based on the Institute of Medicine recommendations. Linear and log-binomial models were used to estimate study-specific mean differences or risk ratios (RRs), respectively, with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the effects of prenatal BEP on the GWG outcomes. The study-specific estimates were pooled using meta-analyses. Subgroup analyses were conducted by individual characteristics. Subgroup analyses and meta-regression were conducted for study-level characteristics. Compared to the comparison group, prenatal BEP led to a 6% greater GWG percent adequacy (95% CI: 2.18, 9.56; p = 0.002), a 0.59 kg greater estimated total GWG at delivery (95% CI, 0.12, 1.05; p = 0.014), a 10% lower risk of severely inadequate GWG (RR: 0.90; 95% CI: 0.83, 0.99; p = 0.025), and a 7% lower risk of inadequate GWG (RR: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.89, 0.97; p = 0.001). The effects of prenatal BEP on GWG outcomes were stronger in studies with a targeted approach, where BEP supplements were provided to participants in the intervention arm under specific criteria such as low body mass index or low GWG, compared to studies with an untargeted approach, where BEP supplements were provided to all participants allocated to the intervention arm.

Conclusions
Prenatal BEP supplements are effective in increasing GWG and reducing the risk of inadequate weight gain during pregnancy. BEP supplementation targeted toward pregnant women with undernutrition may be a promising approach to delivering the supplements.

In good times and in bad, in sickness and in health: The continuous rise in adoption of labour-saving agricultural technologies in Myanmar

Adoption and impact of hybrid rice in India: Evidence from a large-scale field survey

This paper aims at understanding the causes of low adoption of hybrid rice technology. The paper also assesses the impact of adoption of hybrids and modern varieties on crop yield, vis-à-vis the old or traditional varieties.Using unit-level data from a large-scale survey of farm households (19,877 paddy cultivators), the authors applied multi-nomial regression method to understand the factors for adoption of hybrid rice and instrumental variable method of regression to estimate its impact.The findings demonstrate that in India, hybrid rice is often grown on relatively poor soils, resulting in greater irrigation costs and for other inputs, such as fertilizers. Further, farmers' poor access to information on the traits of hybrid rice and the associated agronomic practices, as well as poor access to financial resources, hampers efforts to scale up its adoption. More importantly, the findings reveal that the relative yield advantage of hybrids over open-pollinated modern varieties is not large enough to incentivize the rapid adoption of hybrid rice technology.Given the higher cost of hybrids than the inbred varieties, enhancing paddy cultivators' access to financial resources can accelerate the adoption of hybrid rice in India.The study is based on unit level data from a large-scale, nationally representative survey of farm households, comprising a sample of 19,877 paddy cultivators, spread across states in India.

Rural underemployment and urbanisation: Insights from a 9-year panel from Malawi

Rural labour markets in Africa are frequently characterised by underemployment, with farmers unable to fully deploy throughout the year one of their most important assets—their labour. Using a nine-year panel data set on 1,407 working-age adults from rural Malawi, we document changes in rural underemployment over this period and how they are associated with urbanisation. Nearby urban growth is linked to increased hours worked in casual labour (ganyu) and in non-agricultural sectors, at the expense of work on the household farm. Improved urban access is also associated with a small increase in wage labour and, at the intensive margin, with hours supplied in household enterprises. We draw lessons from these results for policies, investments and interventions to leverage urban growth for rural development.

Methods for estimating beneficiary populations targeted by health and nutrition interventions for women, pregnant women, infants, and young children

Utilization of maternal and child interventions is typically tracked in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) using coverage estimates from population representative surveys. These estimates cannot be directly applied to assess resource gaps in intervention delivery for which data on the population eligible is required. Moreover, coverage improvements may not necessarily reflect an expansion in utilization because of a decline in the population eligible. We develop a method to estimate the populations eligible for interventions across the continuum of care. The method uses data from the World Population Prospects and the Demographic Health Survey, data sources which are available for most LMICs. Additionally, we develop a method to estimate the eligible population covered by each intervention. Using the illustration of India, we estimate populations eligible for, and covered by interventions during preconception, pregnancy, delivery, lactation, and childhood. We find that between 2015 and 2020, the eligible population declined for all beneficiary groups. Additionally, coverage expansion was not entirely driven by an increase in the population accessing an intervention, but rather also by a decline in the eligible population. Our illustration highlights the importance of including population estimates alongside coverage for interventions, particularly in LMIC contexts due to changing fertility dynamics.

Men can cook: Effectiveness of a men’s engagement intervention to change attitudes and behaviors in rural Ethiopia

Graduation model interventions seek to address multiple barriers constraining households’ exit from poverty, however, few explicitly target restrictive gender norms. Using a randomized controlled trial design, combined with three rounds of data, we investigate the impacts on gender equitable attitudes and behaviors of a graduation program that seeks to address multiple constraints for those in poverty and improve restrictive gender norms in Ethiopia. We find that at 1-year follow-up all treatment arms lead to improvements in men’s gender equitable attitudes and their engagement in household domestic tasks as reported by both men and women; but at 3-year follow-up, impacts are only sustained in the treatment arms that introduced men’s engagement groups after the 1-year follow-up survey to further promote improvements in equitable gender norms.

Diet quality and micronutrient intakes in nutritional value chains: A synthesis and suggestions for further research

This paper provides an overview of a virtual collection of papers analyzing drivers of diet quality and micronutrient intakes, and what has been learnt from various interventions to address micronutrient malnutrition, the contexts in which they succeed, and factors that affect their impact. We frame this using a micronutrient value chain, to highlight the important linkages from farm to plate. Our focus is on representative studies along this value chain in low and middle income countries where micronutrient malnutrition is most prevalent. The papers reviewed suggest that (a) both production diversity and market access work hand-in-hand to improve dietary quality. (b) However, the evidence on whether commercialization improves or reduces diet quality is context-specific and depends on whether markets exist for goods to be sold and micronutrient-rich foods purchased. (c) Not surprisingly, incomes and prices emerge as key factors affecting consumption decisions, with the cost of a healthy diet remaining unaffordable for many. Furthermore, the poor are most sensitive to changes in the relative prices of micronutrient-rich foods. (d) Also important is how food is consumed within the household: the review suggests that social context matters greatly in assessing relationships between women’s empowerment and diet quality. We then review several supply and demand side interventions, and note that while many are successful, not all are easily transferable, and thus may need adaptation to local contexts. We conclude with a set of ten areas that remain open for further research.

Using best-worst scaling to inform agroecological interventions in Western Kenya

Both the demand for food and the environmental impacts of food production are estimated to significantly increase by 2050. Agroecological interventions have proven effective in facilitating the transition from current food production systems to more sustainable ones. These interventions can not only ensure more equitable food and nutritional security but also address poverty and reduce environmental impacts. As such, agroecological interventions can generate both private and public ecosystem services. Farmers play a key role in how food is produced, as the practices they use are linked with their preferences and expertise, as well as the constraints they face. Understanding farmers’ preferences for the adoption of different agroecological practices and their perceptions of the associated costs and benefits is critical to informing policies that can effectively support farmers in transitioning to more sustainable practices, including those that contribute to the generation of ecosystem services highly valued by broader society. To assess such preferences, we conducted a survey among farmers in Western Kenya which included a best-worst scaling experiment augmented by qualitative questions about the reasons for farmers’ views about the importance of the benefits arising from agroecological practices. Results show that farmers have strong preferences for adopting agroecological practices that generate private goods and are directly related to increasing productivity and food security, including improving health of household members. These may also include practices that have some public good elements as well, such as increasing agrobiodiversity. However, practices that generate broader public good benefits, including improved forest quality/coverage, reduced off-farm environmental impacts, greater community-level resilience to shocks, and improved landscape and wildlife management, were less important to farmers. Such findings can be used to inform policies that support farmer adoption of agroecological interventions best suited to different farming communities, as well as indicating the need for additional types of market-based incentives, such as through Payments for Ecosystem Service mechanisms.

Economic impacts of large dams on downstream brickmaking in developing countries

Large dams have positive and negative impacts, including disrupting brickmaking on the floodplains downstream due to flow regulation and sediment reduction, affecting the supply of essential construction material, notably in developing countries. In this study, we introduce an analytical framework to assess the economywide effects of large dams on downstream brickmaking, focusing on Traditional Fired Clay Brick (TFCB). The framework includes three steps: characterizing the impacts on river flow and sediment load using river system modeling and secondary data, understanding the role of TFCB production in the economy based on survey and economic data, and quantifying the economywide impacts of changes in TFCB production using dynamic computable general equilibrium modeling. We demonstrate the functionality of the approach by conducting a case study of the impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Sudanese economy due to changes in TFCB production by comparing two scenarios: “with GERD” and “no GERD.” Results show that Sudan’s accumulated (2023–2050) discounted (at 0.5% annually) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at factor cost would decline by US$ 6 billion (−0.38%) due to a reduction in TFCB production. Consumer flexibility regarding brick types and the ability of alternative brick sources to fill the demand gap are key determinants of the impacts.

The political economy of agroecological transitions: Key analytical dimensions

There is a growing global interest in agroecology, yet agroecological transitions remain fraught with challenges. These include the need to reconfigure the productive and reproductive agrarian relations of unsustainable food systems and to rethink how we work with ecosystems. Using a political economy approach, we propose five key interrelated dimensions for analyzing agroecological transitions: (i) social metabolism; (ii) labor dynamics; (iii) markets and resources; (iv) social organization; and (iv) policies and politics. While these dimensions are often analyzed separately and to varying degrees, we argue that together they contribute to a comprehensive analysis of the political economy of agroecological transitions.

Intensive and extensive margins of India's agricultural trade: implications for export diversification and development

This paper aims to analyze relative contribution of intensive margin (IM) and extensive margin (EM) to growth in India's agricultural exports for the period 2001 to 2020. It also analyses the determinants of IM and EMs through a standard gravity model.The study uses export data from United Nations Comtrade, which is accessed through World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) software. Data for the period 2001 to 2020 were compiled for analysis using the Harmonized System (HS) of commodity classification system at the six-digit level. This study decomposed the contribution of IM and EM in the growth of Indian agricultural trade by using Hummels and Klenow's approach. After performing the export decomposition analysis, the authors analyze the factors influencing IM and EM by using the Tobit regression model and Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood (PPML) method of estimation.The EM grew at 1.24% per annum, while the intensive margin (IM) increased by 0.23%. The contribution of growth at the EM increased from 58.8% in 2001 to 70.2% in 2020. Export growth along the IM was relatively high for animal products and agricultural raw materials, while growth at the EM was an important contributor to the export growth of horticultural and processed agricultural products. There was a positive and significant effect of the free trade agreement (FTA) on export margins.More disaggregated commodity-specific studies on value chain analysis would provide valuable insights into the issues hindering exports and realizing the untapped export potential.There is a scarcity of holistic and recent studies illustrating the role of IM and EMs in agricultural trade growth, covering a large number of commodities and geographies associated with Indian agricultural trade. The study would be helpful to the stakeholders in facilitating informed policy decisions.

Evaluating the gendered credit constraints and uptake of an insurance-linked credit product among smallholder farmers in Kenya