IFPRI Datasets

Tajikistan Rural Household Survey (TRHS) 2025

The Tajikistan Rural Household Survey (TRHS) is a survey data collection effort led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Tajik Academy of Agricultural Sciences (TAAS). It is an ambitious attempt to generate data critical to filling pertinent evidence gaps on the livelihoods and the resilience of rural households in Tajikistan. The TRHS interviewed 3,267 households in the country's three most populated regions (Sughd Region, Khatlon Region, and Districts of Republic Subordination).

The in-person household survey includes a household-level questionnaire that was administered to any knowledgeable adult household member. An accompanying individual-level questionnaire was administered in private to one randomly selected household member, aged 18 to 54 years old. In households were no adult was present in the specified age range, another household member 55 years or older was allowed to respond to the individual-level questionnaire. The dataset also consists of a brief enumerator survey.

Armed conflict, community-based cash transfers, and social cohesion: Evidence from a randomized intervention in Ethiopia

Can a light-touch graduation model enhance livelihood outcomes? Evidence from Ethiopia

When prices spike: Identifying excessive volatility in fertilizer markets

Sharp and volatile fertilizer price movements can hinder adoption and reduce agricultural productivity, especially among vulnerable smallholders. Using a nonparametric location-scale approach to model price returns, we quantify the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR)—the high return threshold exceeded with low probability—to identify excessive price spikes in potash, urea, and di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) markets. We use the bias-corrected estimator from Martins-Filho et al., (2018) and propose a simpler estimator based on Hill (1975). Backtesting results indicate superior performance of the Hill-based estimator, supporting its value as a convenient method for detecting unusual fertilizer price surges amid recurring global volatility.

Pork safety across Vietnam's traditional markets: microbial contamination and vendor knowledge, attitudes, and practices

Foodborne diseases are a major cause of illness in low- and middle-income countries, and most are due to fresh foods sold in traditional markets. Contamination with foodborne pathogens, especially Salmonella spp., continues to be common in these markets. To better understand why this is the case, this study assessed total bacteria count (TBC) and Salmonella in pork across Vietnamese traditional markets and evaluated vendors’ food safety knowledge, attitudes, and practices, examining their associations with contamination. Data was collected in 68 markets across five provinces, with up to 10 pork vendors per market randomly selected. Microbiological data were collected through cut pork samples and cutting boards swabs (n=396), along with structured questionnaires and observations with vendors (n=486). Cutting board swabs were analyzed for TBC only, while cut pork was tested for both TBC and Salmonella. Linear and generalized linear mixed-effects models were constructed to identify risk factors for TBC and Salmonella prevalence. The overall Salmonella prevalence in cut pork was 64.4% (255/396) and was significantly higher in southern provinces (86.8%) compared to the north (47.5%, p < 0.01). TBC was high in pork and cutting boards (6.4 log₁₀CFU/g and 6.9 log₁₀CFU/cm², respectively), and only 30% of the pork samples met the Vietnamese standard for TBC in fresh meat. Selling of organs was associated with a higher TBC (coefficient = 0.13, CI: 0.01–0.26, p = 0.03) and greater Salmonella risk (OR = 2.04, p = 0.009). Temperature significantly increased both outcomes (p < 0.001), while using easy-to-clean surfaces reduced TBC levels (coefficient = -0.16, CI: -0.30 to -0.01, p = 0.03). Vendors demonstrated limited food safety knowledge and mixed attitudes. Observations revealed poor hygienic practices, such as displaying pork on cardboard or cloth or lack of washing with soap and disinfectants, which was influenced by limited access to facilities and equipment. Regional differences suggested contamination levels were influenced by both environmental and market-related factors. These findings highlight the need for holistic interventions targeting an enabling environment, appropriate equipment, and behavioral incentives.

The effect of teacher training and community literacy programming on teacher and student outcomes

Motivated by extremely low levels of basic reading skills in sub-Saharan Africa, we experimentally evaluate two interventions designed to enhance students’ early-grade literacy performance in rural Mozambique: a relatively light-touch, scalable teacher training in early-grade literacy including the provision of pedagogical materials, and teacher training and materials in conjunction with community-level reading camps. Using data from 1,596 third graders in 160 rural public primary schools, we find no evidence that either intervention improved teachers’ pedagogical knowledge or practices or student or teacher attendance following two years of implementation. There are some weak positive effects on student reading as measured by a literacy assessment, primarily observed in a shift away from scores of zero, and these effects are consistent across arms. Our findings are aligned with the growing consensus that more intensive school- and/or community-based interventions are required to meaningfully improve learning.

Agricultural technology adoption and deforestation: Evidence from a randomized control trial

We study the effect of the adoption of improved agricultural inputs on deforestation using a randomized control trial in Nigeria which introduced a more efficient and environmentally-friendly nitrogen fertilizer. We combine survey data from the intervention with earth observation data to develop a generalizable method for evaluating the effects of cluster-level interventions on landscape-level outcomes. We find evidence of an intensification response to treatment exposure that reflects significant heterogeneity across land cover. On land with relatively sparse pre-intervention tree cover, treatment exposure increased deforestation while in denser forest areas the intervention reduced deforestation. We find corresponding effects showing treatment exposure increases agricultural productivity. Our results reflect an intensification response to improved agricultural technology that redirects agricultural activity away from forests and towards existing cropland.

Understanding social safety nets and intra-household food allocation: Experimental evidence from Bangladesh

Evidence shows that social protection can improve diets, but little is known about how impacts vary within households, the extent to which the modality of the transfer affects how it is distributed across all household members, whether adding training on the importance of nutrition and diets alters the way transfer resources are allocated within the household, relative to a transfer alone, and if differences in allocations are shaped by differences in livelihood opportunities. We use individual food intake data from two randomized control trials fielded in rural Bangladesh to address these questions. Our results overwhelmingly demonstrate that food gains are distributed equally, regardless of the type of transfers households received (cash, food, or combination), inclusion of nutrition training, regional context, or specific dietary outcome measured. These patterns of findings hold when we consider several extensions: (1) analyzing more aggregated demographic groups; (2) considering alternative measures of diet; (3) analyzing shares rather than levels; (4) considering impacts relative to deprivation at baseline; (5) analyzing impacts on non-food outcomes that can be assigned demographically; (6) re-estimating impacts using alternate samples and alternate estimation models. Where the few significant differences are found, they are often small in magnitude and in favor of children.

Transfers, information and management advice: Direct effects and complementarities in Malawi

We examine a program designed to alleviate credit, information, and farm management constraints among smallholder cash crop farmers through transfers and a cross-randomized program offering intensive agricultural extension. We document strong complementarities between the two sets of interventions. Investment driven by increased labor expenditures, production, and consumption are highest for farmers that received both transfers and intensive extension, a pattern that persists two and three years later. In the short run, transfers alone led to the reallocation of input expenditures into increased labor for cash crop cultivation, which led to increased production of project focal crops but not total crop production. While farmers in the transfers only group continue to spend more on labor in subsequent seasons, this does not lead to changes in production or consumption, suggesting that the support of the intensive extension was important for the generation of the largest welfare gains from the transfers.

Increasing women’s empowerment: Evaluating two interventions in Uganda

We conduct a randomized controlled trial to test a novel intervention for increasing women’s empowerment in Uganda. The intervention includes a within-household transfer of a productive asset, which has a lower cost than an external transfer. We find that transferring control of some of the household’s sugarcane to the wife significantly increases her access to resources and decision-making power. We also document increases in women’s empowerment arising from a cross-randomized couples’ workshop that improved women’s self-concept and shifted beliefs in gender equality. We find no additional impacts from combining the two interventions. Importantly, neither intervention harms the household’s productivity or husbands’ welfare. In fact, men (and women) report higher marital quality and life satisfaction as a result. However, despite increasing women’s empowerment we find no evidence that the interventions increased measured household investment in food security, child health, or education.

How much do our neighbors really know? The limits of community-based targeting

Social assistance programs in developing countries often rely on local community members to identify potential beneficiaries. As community members may observe neighbors’ welfare, their reports may capture transitory shocks better than the proxies typically observable by a centralized policy implementer. To test this, we conduct a lab-style experiment in Central Java, in which participants rank other community members’ welfare, using benchmarks that vary in sensitivity to transitory shocks, and target small cash transfers. We find little evidence that community-held welfare information better reflects transitory shocks and find that targeting decisions mostly depend on perceived differences in overall wealth.

JEL Codes: O12, I32, D83

Constraints and promising interventions to strengthen fish seed systems in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Ghana

CONTEXT
Aquaculture has surpassed capture fisheries in terms of production and is among the fastest growing food sectors. It has great potential to contribute to food security and nutrition, poverty reduction, jobs, and environmental sustainability. Fish seed is increasingly considered to be a major driver and disabler of aquaculture development. However, little is known about how fish seed systems operate, their challenges and opportunities, or entry points for strengthening them.
OBJECTIVE
This study analyzes primary data on the challenges and opportunities faced by various actors along the fish seed chain, documents the lessons from a fish seed project (Ghana Tilapia Seed Project, 2019–2022), and provides an analysis of entry points for strengthening fish seed systems.
METHODS
Using an analytical framework that tracks germplasm base, seed production and quality, seed availability and distribution, and the information flow along the fish seed value chain, we analyze the case of Ghana, the top producer of farmed tilapia in sub-Saharan Africa. The study uses a mixed-methods approach, including value chain analysis, action-oriented research methods, and statistical analysis of survey data.
RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
Findings indicate that the initial rapid growth in tilapia production in Ghana was partly due to an improved local strain released in 2004; however, the recent stagnation is largely caused by seed-related issues (poor maintenance and improvement of germplasm base, seed quality and availability, lack of information and coordination, and lack of enforcement of regulations). This study highlights the successes and lessons learned from the Ghana Tilapia Seed Project on broodstock distribution, training on fingerling production, establishment of nurseries, and training of fish farmers. The lessons highlight the need for policy changes and capacity building related to strain development and broodstock management.
SIGNIFICANCE
These findings fill the large gap in evidence on the functioning of fish seed systems and how to strengthen them. They can directly inform ongoing country-level efforts and programs aiming to develop aquaculture.

COVID-19 and rural livelihoods: Lessons from a longer-term assessment and the path to recovery

The COVID-19 pandemic had profound effects on livelihoods across rural populations worldwide. Building on earlier work that examined the initial effects of the pandemic on food security and nutrition among smallholder agricultural households in the Western Highlands of Guatemala, this study offers a longer-term assessment of the impacts and the path to recovery. We rely on a unique longitudinal survey of 1,262 households conducted over four rounds between 2019 and 2022, with the first round in person and the subsequent ones by phone. The results show substantial recoveries in food security and dietary diversity in the region by mid-2022 compared to 2020, but at levels still worse than pre-pandemic ones for some indicators. There is also a sustained increase in the intention to emigrate. The households that were initially more affected in terms of food security and nutrition but recovered faster include those located in one of the three studied departments and families living above the poverty line, while smallholders affected by hurricanes, non-coffee producers, and indigenous populations took longer to recover. We additionally provide quantitative estimates for a subsample of households interviewed in person during a fifth survey round at the end of 2022, showing an average decline of about 16 percent in total household income three years after the start of the pandemic, mainly driven by a decrease in agricultural income, combined with a 26-percent increase in expenditures and an important surge in indebtedness. Overall, the study offers valuable lessons regarding the recovery of vulnerable households following a major global crisis and in a context of additional shocks.

Estimating multidimensional development resilience

Existing measures of resilience are typically based on a single well-being indicator. This is problematic in contexts where households face deprivations across multiple dimensions. We develop a multidimensional resilience measure, integrating probabilistic moment-based resilience measurement approaches with multidimensional poverty measurement methods. Applying these to household panel data from Ethiopia, we show that univariate and multidimensional resilience measures based on expenditure-based poverty, dietary diversity, and livestock asset holdings can yield varied inferences on the ranking of households as well as potential impact of development interventions. Univariate resilience measures constructed using consumption expenditure, dietary diversity and livestock asset holdings show distinct temporal and spatial distributional patterns. But while univariate measures are weakly correlated with one another and with different well-being metrics, multivariate measures exhibit much stronger rank correlations. When we contrast univariate measures of resilience to multidimensional measures of resilience, we find that the latter vary less over the study period; multidimensional resilience measures seem to capture more “persistent or structural” vulnerability and associated capacity of households. We also demonstrate the differences in these univariate and multivariate measures, including the potential of the composite multidimensional resilience measures for supporting targeting processes.

Agricultural mechanization

Higher altitude stunts children's physical growth: A systematic review and meta-analysis

How can anticipatory action programming support women? Application of the reach-benefit-empower-transform framework in Nepal and Nigeria

Exposure and disease burden of fumonisins and aflatoxins from sorghum consumption in Ethiopia

Studies on mycotoxin exposure from sorghum consumption and related public health risk estimation are rarely available in Ethiopia. The aim of this research was to assess fumonisin and aflatoxin exposure of adults through sorghum consumption in the Amhara National Regional State (ANRS) and at national level in Ethiopia and to estimate related health risks. Data on fumonisin and aflatoxin concentrations in sorghum samples were collected from a survey and literature. Estimated fumonisin exposure in the ANRS and at national level were below the FAO/WHO limit of 2000 ng/kg bw day to be considered a health concern. The estimated aflatoxin exposure levels in the ANRS and at national level fall below the Margin of Exposure value of 10000, indicating potential health concern. The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma due to aflatoxin exposure in the ANRS ranges from 0.0003 to 0.017 while at national level, it ranges from 0.181 to 8.47 (per100.000 persons/year). The related disability-adjusted life years estimates for the ANRS and at national level ranged from 0.0003 to 0.019 and 0.204 to 11.230, respectively. Aflatoxin exposures were driven more by sorghum intake than aflatoxin contamination. Dietary intervention could further reduce the health risk estimates.

Vouchers to increase fruit affordability in Nigeria and Vietnam

Although fruits are an important part of healthy diets, they are relatively expensive, so most individuals consume less than recommended. We use a randomized control trial to study a voucher program designed to improve the affordability of fruits in peri-urban and urban settings in Vietnam and Nigeria, and analyze whether vouchers can increase fruit consumption. The trial took place in 2021 among 601 households in Vietnam and 611 households in Nigeria. Vouchers were distributed between March and July in Vietnam and between June and November in Nigeria. In both contexts, a large majority of consumers who received vouchers used them. Following project conclusion, we find suggestive evidence of sustained increased fruit consumption only in Vietnam. In Nigeria, vouchers increased consumption of certain fruit categories during program implementation, but we find no evidence of sustained impacts. Fruit consumption is higher across the board in Vietnam, and the sample is wealthier overall, suggesting fruit affordability may not be a binding constraint for consumption. In Nigeria, the increase in consumption during the program along with a post-project decline suggest a lack of household resources to sustain consumption once the project concluded. The results suggest vouchers can improve consumption of healthy foods like fruits, but other actions are needed to make them more affordable in the longer term.

Gendered networks and demand for an agricultural technology in India

Studies on social learning and technology adoption often only consider the networks of a single individual in a household as a source of information influencing agricultural production decisions. We test the validity of this assumption by examining the role of men’s and women’s social networks in the adoption of a novel water-saving technology, laser land leveling (LLL), in India. Using network data from men and women in the same household, we test the influence of being connected to an adopter on demand for LLL. We identify the causal gender-specific network effects using a field experiment that combines an auction with a lottery for the technology, making the presence of adopters in networks exogenous. The data reveal that men’s and women’s networks vary in size and show little overlap. We find that whereas household demand for LLL increases when men are linked to an LLL-adopting household, it decreases when the network linkages run through women. These gender-differentiated effects are concentrated in households where the woman’s opinion about the technology is valued by the man and in non-poor households. The results highlight that social learning may interact with the socio-demographic characteristics of households in myriad ways to influence household technology adoption decisions, and that agricultural-based information interventions ought to also consider how information gets used in the household.

JEL classification: D13; Q12; Q16

The effect of using indigenous and scientific forecasts on arable farmers’ crop yields: Evidence from Rwenzori region, western Uganda

What are the economic and poverty implications for Sudan if the conflict continues through 2025?

The ongoing conflict in Sudan, which began in April 2023, has triggered severe economic contractions, exacerbating poverty and unemployment while disrupting key sectors of the economy. This study employs an updated economywide database to assess the economic impact of a continued conflict through the end of 2025 under two scenarios of extreme and moderate contractions in the overall GDP. Our findings indicate that by the end of 2025, Sudan’s GDP would decline by 42% under the extreme scenario and 32% under the moderate scenario. The agrifood system would be particularly affected, with its GDP contracting by 33.6% and employment halving under the extreme scenario. Household incomes decline across all quintiles, with rural populations and women experiencing the sharpest losses. The national poverty rate is projected to rise by 19 percentage points under the extreme scenario, further deepening socioeconomic vulnerabilities. To mitigate the widespread adverse impacts of the conflict on the Sudanese economy, policies and interventions should prioritize the restoration of economic productivity, support the agrifood system and employment recovery strategies, and ensure that social protection measures are accessible to all households facing increased deprivation.

War and resilience: The multifaceted impacts of Sudan's conflict and pathways to recovery

The synopsis is being made available in advance of an anticipated 2026 launch of the full book.

Imperfect competition and asymmetric welfare effects of global price and productivity shocks: a CGE model analysis for Senegal

This article investigates the asymmetric effects of global price and productivity shocks on welfare in the context of imperfect competition. The primary objective is to understand how market concentration affects the transmission of economic shocks and their impacts on various households. A CGE model, calibrated on a 2014 social accounting matrix for Senegal, is used. The model features a trading sector operating under a Cournot oligopoly with increasing returns to scale. Two scenarios are simulated: a 15% increase in global import prices and a 10% increase in agricultural productivity, each considering different levels of market concentration. The findings reveal that higher global import prices reduce household well-being, a situation exacerbated by low market competition. In contrast, agricultural productivity gains enhance well-being, with these benefits amplified by greater competition. However, the wealthiest households in Dakar benefit from low competition due to their positions in oligopolistic companies. To maximize household well-being, economic policies should focus on strengthening market competition, particularly in the trading sector. Actions such as reducing entry barriers for new businesses and regulating anti-competitive practices can help mitigate the adverse effects of global price increases and amplify the benefits of agricultural productivity gains.

Understanding spatial heterogeneity of hidden hunger in Senegal

Using household consumption data collected in 2017/18, this paper analyzes patterns of urban and rural food consumption in Senegal. We adopt two methodological approaches: an in-depth (spatial) profiling of current diets and corresponding nutrient intakes and an application of the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS). Our findings indicate that Senegal is a typical case of micronutrient deficiency, especially regarding calcium, iron, and vitamin B12. Due to their higher income status and better food access, urban dwellers on average have a more diversified diet with higher nutrient intakes compared to their rural counterparts, especially regarding calcium, vitamin B12, and vitamin A. While the country’s food system in general is unable to assure a nutritious diet for all, the most remote rural departments in Senegal, such as Saraya and Podor, display the highest nutrient deficiencies and therefore should be targeted with priority. Apart from geographical targeting and given their higher responsiveness to price and income changes, policies based on food pricing and income transfers should be implemented to ensure a minimal nutrient intake among the most food-insecure households. These policies could be further complemented with behavioral change campaigns to promote an alternative set of nutrient-rich and cost-effective food items.

Step by step to higher yields? Adoption and impacts of a sequenced training approach for climate-smart coffee production in Uganda

Climate change further exacerbates sustainability challenges in coffee cultivation. Addressing these requires effective delivery mechanisms for sustainable farming practices, particularly in smallholder contexts. We assess a novel public-private extension approach in Uganda, called Stepwise, comprising a sequence of climate-smart and good agricultural practices in four incremental steps. Using a mixed-method approach, an index that captures adoption intensity rather than binary uptake, and survey data from 915 Robusta and Arabica coffee farmers, we find adoption levels around 46% and relatively uniform amongst treated, spillover and comparison farmers. Regional variations suggest differing benefits across coffee varieties. Qualitative findings identify barriers to adoption, including financial and labour constraints, suboptimal training delivery, and input and output market imperfections. Despite relatively low uptake, adoption of more than half of the Stepwise practices is associated with substantial gains: inverse probability weighted regression adjustment reveals a 23% increase in yield and a 32% increase in revenue. Our findings add to the adoption literature, which often highlights limited uptake, and have important policy implications. Strengthening producer organizations, delivering targeted training but also innovative solutions for access to inputs and fair pricing, hold considerable potential to increase the adoption of climate-smart practices, particularly among resource-constrained farmers.

Incentives, administrative capture and preference aggregation in community-based targeting

Community-based targeting (CBT), which leverages community leaders to identify eligible
beneficiaries, is widely used in social protection programs and development interventions,
especially in data-scarce settings. Yet, little is known about how these leaders respond to
opportunities for potential resource leakages and elite capture, and whether such behavior is
moderated by budget constraints or the level of discretion given to leaders. Similarly, how
community leaders involved in CBT aggregate individual preferences into collective decisions
remains understudied. We conduct a cluster-randomized experiment in 180 Ethiopian villages to
study the effects of incentive structures and discretion on administrative capture—defined as
funds retained under the disguise of covering “administrative” costs. Local leaders were tasked
with allocating real or hypothetical transfer budgets, with discretion to retain up to 10 percent as
“administrative costs”. To uncover decision-making and preference aggregation within CBT
committees, we elicited these decisions (proposals to retain a portion of the budget) individually
as well as collectively. We find that financial incentives significantly increase administrative
(elite) capture, and that capture increases with budget size. Group decisions yield higher
appropriation than individual proposals, suggesting implicit collusion rather than prosocial
restraint in group-based decisions. Moreover, when real stakes are at play, group outcomes are
disproportionately shaped by extreme (outlier) preferences, whereas in hypothetical settings
without actual transfers, popular preferences dominate. These findings highlight behavioral
mechanisms underlying collective decision-making and administrative capture in CBT, which
can inform the design of more accountable CBT systems.

Policy entry points for healthy diets in India: Insights from three consultations

Improving diet quality in India is both urgent and achievable, and the cost of inaction is high. The policy entry points identified through stakeholder consultations offer practical ways forward—from implementing front-of-package labeling and restricting ultra-processed food advertisements, to strengthening nutrition behavior change communication in existing safety net programs and making these programs more nutrition-sensitive. India's increasingly diverse food production is creating the supply-side foundation for healthier diets. Policy action should now focus on three key areas: making nutritious foods more accessible and affordable through agricultural policies and social protection programs that enable and incentivize crop and diet diversification; fostering healthier food environments by regulating ultra-processed foods with improved labeling, restrictions on advertising and promotion near schools, and limits on sugar, fat, and salt content; and building sustained demand for diverse, nutritious diets through targeted behavior change communication. Implementation should apply a consistent equity lens: prioritizing lagging geographies and marginalized groups, addressing gendered time constraints through childcare and other supports, and enabling women-led and small enterprises that produce nutritious, convenient foods. Success requires prioritizing cost-effective interventions with demonstrated impact, fostering collaboration across government departments and levels, and leveraging India's growing data infrastructure to ensure interventions reach the most vulnerable populations.

Measuring gender sensitive climate adaptation in agrifood systems for climate finance

There is a need for clear and flexible national-level frameworks to help countries identify their progress towards gender integration in climate adaptation. Gender-sensitive frameworks would also help strengthen gender considerations when determining climate financing and steer potential financing to accelerate progress towards gender equality. Without such frameworks, it becomes difficult to direct climate finance strategically to women in the AFS and to systematically track the adaptation outcomes associated with the funds they receive. This brief draws on a literature review of existing policies and frameworks and key informant interviews (KIIs) with experts in designing gender-informed national-level frameworks conducted by researchers at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) under the Gender, Climate Change, and Nutrition (GCAN) Integration Initiative and the CGIAR Climate Action Science Program. In this brief, we summarize the need for clear and applicable national-level frameworks to measure gender integration in climate change adaptation strategies and how such guidance could be used to direct climate financing to address gender equality.

The impact of a nutrition-sensitive graduation model program on child nutrition: Experimental evidence from Ethiopia

Multifaceted graduation models are a promising strategy to sustainably reduce poverty, yet evidence on their effects on child undernutrition remains limited. This randomized controlled trial evaluated a nutrition-sensitive graduation model combining village economic and savings associations, peer-led behavior change communication, and maternal cash transfers (and for a subset, lump-sum livelihoods transfers) implemented among ultra-poor households in rural Ethiopia. The model without maternal cash transfers improved maternal nutrition knowledge and financial inclusion but did not generate meaningful changes in children’s diets or growth. Supplementing the pro-gram with maternal cash transfers produced at least moderate improvements in child diet quality, early childhood development, household consumption, and assets. The largest improvements in child growth occurred among households receiving both the livelihoods grant and maternal cash transfers. Overall, the results suggest that coupling behavior change communication and livelihoods support with sufficient financial support is critical for achieving meaningful progress in both economic well-being and child nutrition.

Internal displacement and the promotion of bundled agricultural technologies: Evidence from a fragile setting in Nigeria

Fragile regions within Nigeria face multiple, overlapping challenges including climate volatility, violent conflict, widespread displacement, and persistent malnutrition. These pressures can constrain agricultural production and compromise household welfare, particularly for internally displaced households, who face depleted assets and repeated exposure to shocks. Within the context of Nigeria, addressing these constraints requires interventions that improve access to agricultural technologies and strengthen food systems. This brief summarizes experimental evidence from Gombe State, Nigeria, where we implemented an intervention promoting the adoption of a bundle of agricultural technologies.

The intervention specifically disentangled the effects of price discounts and information campaigns on bundle adoption. We collected data on the use of each of the bundle components as well as the implementation of agronomic practices recommended for achieving agricultural intensification benefits, enabling us to document adoption beyond the initial purchase of the bundle in a detailed way. The bundle—which includes biofortified seeds, fertilizers, crop protection products, and weather-risk insurance—was designed to generate an intensification response among farmers and address micronutrient deficiencies among adopting households. In principle, biofortified crops—such as vitamin A maize and high-iron millet—offer a dual benefit: improved crop productivity and improved access to nutritious foods. While Nigerian agricultural policies encourage biofortification, sustained adoption remains limited, and existing studies overwhelmingly focus on peaceful and stable settings. We aim to addresses existing knowledge gaps by implementing a randomized control trial in Gombe State, Nigeria—a fragile and conflict-affected setting with a relatively large displaced population.

Existing evidence shows that bundled input packages, rather than interventions promoting a single agricultural input, can generate productivity gains associated with agricultural intensification. Adoption is often hindered by liquidity constraints, perceived risk, and weak extension systems. Moreover, displaced households can face additional barriers due to asset loss and insecure land tenure. This motivates us to specifically investigate whether displaced households respond differently to our intervention than households from the host population.

Brick kilns and agricultural productivity in Bangladesh: Evidence from satellite data and a natural experiment

Bangladesh’s brick kiln industry plays a critical role in supplying construction materials for rapid urbanization. However, the sector remains largely informal and weakly regulated, with widespread extraction of fertile topsoil and substantial emissions of particulate matter and black carbon. These practices raise growing concerns about long-term environmental degradation, agricultural productivity, and food security.

This policy brief summarizes new national-scale evidence on the impacts of brick kiln expansion on agricultural productivity in Bangladesh. Using satellite-based vegetation data covering more than two decades and a newly constructed geospatial inventory of brick kilns, the study provides causal estimates of how kiln establishment affects vegetation health and crop productivity over time.

Synopsis: The changing demographics in Nigeria’s food systems and implications for future youth engagement

Food systems (FS) are critically important in sub-Sahara Africa (SSA), where they account for a significant share of the GDP and employment. FS transformation is both strongly influenced by and strongly influences employment and job creation. This study documents FS employment in the past two decades observed in Nigeria, focusing on changes in demographic structure and inclusiveness. Key findings of the study are:

FS in Nigeria are poised for significant transformation driven by demographic shifts, urbanization, income growth, and a favorable policy environment, while the conflict adversely affects this transformation. Agricultural employment declined significantly during the period, while the share of nonfarm agrifood sectors in total employment almost tripled, signaling major structural transformation. Employment in food manufacturing expanded rapidly, albeit from a lower base, with women's share among the fastest growing. Women’s share in nonfarm agrifood system (AFS) employment tripled over the period, while youth participation quadrupled. However, Nigeria’s youth face persistent barriers. Youth unemployment is double the national rate and their labor force participation is considerably below the average rate. The nonfarm AFS employment share in Nigeria far exceeds the continental average, positioning Nigeria ahead in AFS transformation. Policy recommendations from the study include providing targeted youth training and financing for nonfarm AFS roles; closing gender gaps through resource access and supportive regulations; investing in marketing infrastructure; prioritizing recovery and job programs in conflict zones; and adopting a holistic FS approach that also engenders the active involvement of women and youth.

Climate–agriculture–gender inequality hotspots: Insights for Nigeria

Climate change intensifies risks in Nigeria’s agri-food systems, disproportionately affecting women due to social inequalities that increase their vulnerability and limit their adaptive capacity. Hotspot areas are concentrated in northern and north-central Nigeria, notably Bauchi, Benue, Kano, Jigawa, Kebby, Nasarawa, Niger, Sokoto, and Zamfara. Policy actions should prioritize climate-smart agriculture, gender-sensitive climate services, and social protection to improve resilience and equity.

Closing the regulatory gap: Experimental evidence on oversight and worker incentives

Weak enforcement of regulatory standards is widespread in low- and middle-income countries. Low firm capacity and standards inappropriate to local contexts imply that traditional punitive enforcement approaches may be counterproductive. We test the impact of a regulatory oversight intervention leveraging the soft power of meat inspectors in the context of 140 rural slaughterhouses in western Kenya. The intervention focused meat inspector attention on hygiene practices and was combined with training of workers and provision of basic equipment and supplies. Practices improved significantly relative to control facilities, but microbial contamination of meat did not. Outcomes were similar in a subset of treatment facilities where workers were additionally given a hygiene performance incentive. Higher volume of business in treatment facilities, which customers perceived as cleaner, suggests that retailers value less contaminated meat, but may counteract the effects of improved practices through cross-contamination and crowding.

When the cure is worse than the disease: Acaricide use, tick resistance, and systemic constraints in Uganda’s dairy sector

The Ugandan dairy sector has expanded rapidly in recent years. However, ticks and tick-borne diseases pose increasing challenges to this progress, exacerbated by the rise in resistance to acaricides, the primary method for tick control. This paper examines the systemic constraints that undermine effective, safe, and sustainable tick control in Uganda’s liberalized dairy system. Drawing on multiple complementary data sources—including household surveys, exit interviews, list experiments, and covert audit methods—we show that the de facto farmer-led model of tick control is characterized by failures in information, coordination challenges, imperfect input markets, and weak regulation. Farmers operate with limited technical knowledge and minimal advisory support, and under extensive grazing systems and frequent inter-herd contact that require coordinated approaches to tick control. Input markets provide access to acaricides, but little guidance on proper use. As a result, misuse and overuse of chemicals are widespread, generating risks for animal and human well-being, food safety, and environmental integrity. Addressing these constraints will require integrated interventions that strengthen extension and regulatory capacity, improve accountability in veterinary input markets, and foster community-level coordination to ensure safe and sustainable tick control.

Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report – November 2025

Rice prices in November 2025 declined nationally, falling by 13 percent year-on-year and remaining broadly stable compared to the previous month. The decline continues to be driven by international market trends and downward pressure from the incoming monsoon harvest.

Export crop prices diverged. Green gram prices increased sharply year-on-year (34 percent), supported by export demand and a modest month-to-month increase following China’s decision to ease its temporary suspension. In contrast, black gram, chickpea, and pigeon pea prices remained well below last year’s levels, reflecting weak demand from India, despite modest month-to-month increases.

Animal-sourced food prices remained substantially higher than last year. Mutton recorded the largest increase, while pork, chicken, and fish also rose sharply year-on-year, reflecting high production costs, disease outbreaks, and constrained supply, although month-to-month changes were more modest.

Multiple risks lie ahead, including weak international rice prices, ongoing conflict, export quality concerns, import restrictions affecting livestock production, border trade and regional policy changes, and policy uncertainty around upcoming elections, all of which may undermine agricultural incentives, farm incomes, and food security.

Farm commercialization and farm services: Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey (dry season 2025)

Prices of major crops declined substantially in the 2025 dry season compared to the previous year. Paddy prices fell by 15 percent, and most major non-paddy crop prices also decreased. The only major exception was green gram. With yields also declining nationwide, many farmers reported lower sales income: only 28 percent indicated that their sales income had increased, while a quarter reported declines of more than 20 percent.

While output prices mostly fell, input prices continued to rise in the 2025 dry season compared to 2024. Urea prices increased by 18 percent. Mechanized plowing costs rose by 29 percent (for 4-wheel tractors), while hired labor costs surged by 47 percent for men and 43 percent for women. These sharp wage increases may partly reflect the introduction of the Military Service Law.

Agricultural inputs were generally accessible during the 2025 dry season, reflecting the resilience of the private sector in delivering these products. Fewer farmers reported shortages of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and seeds compared to last year.

Use of agricultural credit declined during the 2025 dry season, falling from 45 percent in 2022 to 31 percent in 2025—a decrease of 14 percentage points.

Agricultural extension services have rebounded. After falling by 5 percentage points from 39 percent in 2022 to 34 percent in 2024, usage rose again to 38 percent in the 2025 dry season. This recovery was driven by private extension services, and use of digital agricultural extension services also increased.

Security challenges continue to hinder crop commercialization in Myanmar. Conditions vary across states and regions, with the Delta—the country’s rice bowl—experiencing relatively better security. Farmers in conflict-affected areas face greater obstacles to commercialization, including reduced availability of agricultural inputs.

Africa's agrifood trade: The state of play

The objective of this report is to establish a state of play of African trade by giving the most accurate picture possible and propose a typology of countries in terms of their degree of openness. It is preliminary work, the first in a series of documents, to pave the way for an in-depth analysis of the role of trade and trade policies in achieving food security and improved diets in Africa. The analysis is based on the rigorous exploitation of the best available data on trade in Africa (formal and informal), the use of the best analytical tools (gravity models) as well as recent indicators for measuring regional integration. The report is organized as follows. In the next section we set the scene by presenting an overview of the complex (positive and negative) links between trade, food security and nutrition. We then analyze Africa agrifood trade, examining first international flows, then regional patterns. In the following section we formally test whether Africa is “undertrading” or not. We next establish a typology of countries according to their degree of self-sufficiency and openness. The fifth - and final- section of the report provides some conclusions and recommendations.

Insecticide use, farmers’ self-reported health status, and genetically modified cowpea in Nigeria: Findings from a clustered randomized controlled trial with causal

Excessive insecticide use in smallholder agriculture can threaten human health and the environment. We evaluate the effects of receiving a genetically modified cowpea variety that confers resistance to the legume pod borer (Maruca vitrata) using a clustered randomized controlled trial with an encouragement design in Nigeria. We find that farmers who received the pod borer-resistant (PBR) cowpea with complementary inputs significantly reduce insecticide volumes and report fewer days of insecticide-related illness compared to farmers who only received a conventional cowpea variety. Farmers receiving PBR cowpea alone experience smaller, mostly insignificant reductions. To explore heterogeneous responses, we combine ANCOVA (analysis of covariance) interactions with machine learning-based Causal Forest estimates of Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs). Results reveal that smaller, less wealthy, and labor-constrained households experience the largest reductions in insecticide use and health improvements, whereas wealthier farmers or those with higher baseline spraying practices experience lower reductions. Women-managed plots exhibit modestly higher responsiveness. Our findings highlight the importance of moving beyond average effects and seed distribution toward targeted, context-specific interventions that account for behavioral and resource constraints in smallholder farming systems.

A 2020-21 Social Accounting Matrix for Pakistan with a Related Water Resources Module

This paper presents the methodological framework and data sources for a national-level Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Pakistan, with an associated hydrological data set. The aim of the paper is to provide a systematic guide to the data requirements necessary to construct a national SAM for Pakistan, and to present the main results from this exercise. We base the development of this SAM on existing SAM frameworks to update the Pakistan national SAM from 2013–14, tying often to the structure of Nexus SAMs developed by IFPRI under its NEXUS Program (see https://www.ifpri.org/project/nexus-project/). However, the estimation of accounts differs in many cases, and the balancing techniques vary as well. The hydrology data is updated using data compiled from sources which include the recent tube-well census in Punjab, surface water flow data, meteorological data, water storage levels and capacity, water efficiency and climate data. The hydrology data is mainly used to update IFPRI’s Computable General Equilibrium- Water (CGE-W) model.

Evaluating humanitarian assistance for food security and resilience during the lean season in the Sahel pre-analysis plan

This pre-analysis plan details the evaluation of a lean-season humanitarian assistance program implemented from July-September 2025 in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Niger, and Nigeria. The intervention addresses acute food insecurity during the lean season, a period when food stocks are depleted and food prices peak. Interventions combine food or cash/vouchers assistance with nutrition support, WASH activities, and genderbased protection measures, adapted to the local contexts in each country. Despite the annual occurrence of lean season, important questions remain. What is the impact of the lean season on household welfare, including the dietary intake and food security of women and children under five? Can seasonal transfers mitigate the impacts of seasonal deprivation? This evaluation applies a mixed-methods multi-country design. In the main analysis, we will use a difference-in-differences strategy that exploits both temporal variation and treatment status across households, drawing on approximately 3,000 households surveyed at baseline and endline. Primary outcomes include household food security and food consumption, child dietary intake, and use of harmful coping strategies. Secondary outcomes include women’s empowerment, resilience to shocks, and community disputes / cohesion. The study also incorporates process evaluation of implementation fidelity and contextual adaptations. This study contributes to the literature on seasonality and food security in the Sahel and can inform policy on linking crisis response with resilience-building in fragile countries.

Labor market and gender impacts of agricultural mechanization: Evidence from Bangladesh's combine harvester subsidy program

Bangladesh's Phase III agricultural mechanization subsidy program (2020–2024) distributed over 35,000 machines worth BDT 1,595 crore (USD 163 million), including nearly 9,000 combine harvesters (CHs) that accounted for 84% of machinery expenditure. Earlier causal econometric analysis suggests that high-allocation CH areas saw 6-13% yield gains, 38-70% lower labor costs, and 12-26% lower production costs. In this note, we explore the distributional consequences of subsidized combine harvesters, particularly along gender lines. As a result of the program, self-employment in agriculture increases by 5.3 percentage points; men shift from wage labor to own-account farm work linked to mechanized operations. Female self-employment in agriculture declines by 2.6 percentage points; overall female employment probability falls by 1.8 percentage points. Unlike men, women do not transition into non-agricultural employment, indicating limited capacity to absorb displaced female workers. Among those who remain self-employed, women increase their time allocation substantially—suggesting that while fewer women participate, those who do work more hours, likely in livestock and fisheries. Foreign migration increases by 6.1 percentage points in high-mechanization areas, suggesting households use freed labor for overseas opportunities.

The future of ABPU agriculture: The 2nd MERCUSUR outlook

In today’s complex and uncertain global environment, region-specific agricultural and trade outlooks are more essential than ever. While global projections from institutions such as the OECD-FAO and USDA provide valuable baselines, incorporating local perspectives is essential to capture the specific dynamics of emerging economies that are deeply integrated into international agrifood markets. Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is the world’s largest net food-exporting region, playing a central role in stabilizing supplies and reducing price volatility (IFPRI, 2025). Within LAC, Mercosur—Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay (ABPU)—accounts for more than half of the region’s agrifood trade, concentrated in oilseeds, cereals, and animal proteins. Over the past two decades, agricultural exports from LAC have more than doubled, consolidating the region’s role as a net contributor to global food availability (Piñeiro et al, 2025a, 2025b). This performance highlights Mercosur’s structural weight in global markets, while also underscoring the climatic, institutional, and infrastructural challenges that call for tailored foresight tools.

Community health worker caseloads, home visits, and child survival: Experimental evidence of heterogenous effects from Mali

I examine whether the effectiveness of community health worker (CHW) home visits in reducing under-five mortality varies with the population-to-CHW ratio in rural, fragile, and conflict-affected Mali. Muso, a global health NGO focused on reducing child and maternal mortality, recently signed a data use agreement with IFPRI to enable study of new research questions using data from its recent randomized controlled trial (RCT) of proactive home visits in Mali’s Bankass region. The original trial found that proactive home visits by professional CHWs did not lead to detectable reductions in child mortality relative to fixed-site care, although health infrastructure improvements in both treatment arms likely led to experienced large declines in under-five mortality across all study communities amid ongoing conflict.

In this project note, I study heterogeneous effects of the proactive home visit model by population-to-CHW ratios using nearly census level baseline population data and administrative records on CHW assignment. I test the hypothesis that home visits may operate differently when CHWs face particularly high or low caseloads. In theory, CHWs serving small populations may not be necessary for improving access because travel distances to fixed sites are already short, whereas CHWs serving very large populations may be unable to conduct sufficiently frequent and high-quality home visits. If both mechanisms operate, an optimal population-to-CHW ratio may exist.

Instead, I find evidence that CHW home visits are more effective when the population-to-CHW ratio is high. At 900 people per CHW (about the 90th percentile in the trial data), children in control clusters experience significantly higher mortality risk. This elevated risk, however, is offset in clusters assigned to proactive home visits. Additional checks indicate that this is driven by CHW coverage rather than underlying population size. These findings suggest that proactive home visits may be most beneficial in areas where fixed-site CHWs otherwise face heavy caseloads.

Lessons from the Digital Agricultural Advisory Services (DAAS) project in Ethiopia: Dairy use case

Agricultural extension services are a cornerstone of rural development and a vital instrument for policymakers to directly shape economic, social, and environmental outcomes in rural areas. These services aim to enhance farm productivity by promoting the adoption of agricultural technologies, inputs, and management practices. Through outreach, training, knowledge sharing, and learning, extension activities help bridge the gap between research and practice, potentially supporting more resilient and productive farming systems (Davis 2008; Jack 2013).

Cold storage networks powered with renewable energy

Cold-storage networks are a key technology that can address the nutritional and environmental costs of food loss and waste within many low- and middle-income countries. In addition to coordination challenges and network externalities that complicate efforts to scale these networks, they require large amounts of energy, carrying the potential of environmental damage via carbon emissions. Thus, using renewable energy sources to power cold-storage networks holds the potential to reduce the environmental damage associated with food loss and meet the increased demand for energy.

Impact of NGOs on women's empowerment and voice in Bangladesh

Bangladesh continues to experience persistent gender inequalities shaped by cultural, religious, and social norms. Within its patriarchal social structure, women’s roles are commonly limited to reproductive work or household-based productive activities. These tasks are essential to family well-being but unpaid, undervalued, and routinely overlooked compared to men’s work (Efroymson et al., 2007). These norms have historically constrained women’s visibility, mobility, and participation in the public sphere.

The expansion of Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) marked an important shift in this landscape. Bangladesh’s NGO sector is heterogeneous, with diverse organizational structures, management styles, and ideological orientations that span both service-delivery and movement-based models (Kabeer, 2002). The rapid growth of NGOs starting in the 1980s is driven largely by increases in donor funding, which signaled a move away from earlier approaches focused on promoting political mobilization and accountability of government toward more service-oriented delivery systems (Rahman, 2006). Over the last decades, many of these service-delivery organizations have incorporated advocacy and rights-based strategies into their work (Nazneen, 2008). Through these evolving programmes, NGOs highlighted and strengthened the contributions of underprivileged women as economic actors and active participants in development and political process. However, despite this progress, there is still no clear empirical evidence from Bangladesh that directly links the presence of NGOs to improvements in women’s agency, voice, and empowerment.

Economic aspects of wildlife farming: Analysis of household surveys from two Vietnamese provinces

Vietnam is a global hotspot for wildlife trade and farming, with thousands of licensed operations raising species such as civets, porcupines, bamboo rats, snakes, and wild boar for meat, traditional medicine, and the exotic pet trade (Van Thu et al., 2023). The sector poses significant public health risks due to the potential for transmission of novel zoonotic diseases (Latinne & Padungtod, 2025). Understanding the economics of this sector is critical to developing effective policy for managing and de-risking wildlife sup-ply chains but data is scarce, typically based on small sample sizes and limited study sites (Thuy et al., 2021). This note provides descriptive statistics regarding the economics of wildlife farming in two provinces of Vietnam, based on a survey of wildlife farming households.

Odisha’s agricultural export footprint

Odisha’s agricultural exports are rising steadily, yet they remain highly concentrated in a few products and districts. Shrimp continues to dominate, while cotton and rice are gradually emerging as important contributors. Notably, the share of agriculture in Odisha’s total merchandise exports has nearly doubled from 4% in 2021–22 to 7% in 2024–25,.

Out-of-sample validation of the external and internal Migration Propensity Index (MPI) in Honduras

The external and internal Migration Propensity Indices (e-MPI and i-MPI) are tools to objectively estimate the probability that individuals from a given household will, respectively, migrate abroad or migrate domestically in the near future. We use new longitudinal data to test their predictive performance fully out of sample. We find that households classified as being of high-propensity to migrate by the e-MPI were significantly more likely to migrate abroad within 24 months (10.7%) than medium- and low-propensity groups (8.8% and 5.3%). For domestic migration, the i-MPI shows an even stronger gradient (19.6% versus 8.5% and 3.5%, respectively). Regression models confirm that both indices outperform alternative predictors—including income, climate shocks, crime, and migration intent—and maintain predictive power across rural and urban areas. Placebo tests indicate that the e-MPI and i-MPI capture distinct dimensions of migration behavior, validating their use for targeting and monitoring migration-related interventions. Overall, the MPIs emerge as simple yet statistically robust tools that reliably predict both international and domestic migration, offering a practical and scalable solution to help governments and development agencies anticipate migration trends and allocate resources strategically.

Perceived need and measured well-being: How well do subjective rankings capture relative poverty?

Subjective well-being rankings are increasingly used to target social protection programs, yet their ability to capture relative welfare and wealth remains debated. This study benchmarks self-, peer-, and elite-based poverty rankings against consumption- and wealth-based measures using Ethiopian household survey data, where about 20 households per village were ranked from neediest to least needy by themselves, peers, and community leaders. We assess concordance between subjective and conventional welfare rankings and explore sources of divergence. Subjective rankings align more with relative wealth than consumption and with total rather than per capita welfare, suggesting they overlook household composition. Elite-based rankings best capture conventional measures, followed by peers’ and self-rankings. Subjective rankings also better reflect relative deprivation among households exposed to covariate shocks. A composite index combining all three improves agreement with standard metrics. Information asymmetries, favoritism, and welfare dynamics partly explain discrepancies, offering insights for enhancing targeting in data-scarce settings.

Urea super granules with deep placement

Urea deep placement, an alternative to traditional broadcast methods, consists of applying urea super granules (USG) directly into the soil next to the root of the plant and beyond the roots of weeds. Traditionally, farmers broadcast prilled urea fertilizer on top of their plots, which is associated with high rates of nitrogen loss, leading to reduced crop yields and environmental damage, especially among rice farmers. In contrast, the use of USG deep placement better contains nitrogen in the soil, facilitating its absorption into crops and improving nitrogen use efficiency. In this way, USG can reduce nitrogen losses along with the associated economic and environmental consequences.

Targeting of beneficiaries in chemical fertilizer subsidy programs: State of knowledge and evidence gaps

Low and middle income countries have been facing mounting pressure from lenders and donors to eliminate or reform fertilizer subsidy programs, which can have distortionary market effects and negative environmental externalities. However, there is little systematic work understanding who these programs currently benefit both in theory and in practice, and hence who may be affected by policy reform. In this paper, we identify low and middle countries with active fertilizer subsidy programs, and characterize the targeting regime of each program based on both explicit and implicit criteria determining eligibility. Then in a selection of case studies, we explore which individuals are receiving subsidy benefits in practice. We find that while many fertilizer subsidy programs are meant to be universal, there are are additional implicit targeting criteria and/or informal targeting induced by supply shortfalls in many countries. Further, we find evidence that regardless of targeting regime, fertilizer subsidies are generally progressive, though this seems to be driven by the fact that the poor are often concentrated in the agricultural sector.

Livelihoods and recovery after Cyclone Idai: Short- and long-run household evidence from Mozambique

Sub-Saharan Africa bears a disproportionate share of global poverty and is also among the regions most vulnerable to natural disasters that pose persistent threats to livelihoods, food security, and long-run development. This study examines how exposure to a major natural disaster—Cyclone Idai, one of the deadliest and costliest disasters in Mozambique’s history—affected household well-being and economic behavior in central Mozambique following its landfall in March 2019. We combine satellite-based best-track data on Cyclone Idai’s trajectory with longitudinal household survey data collected both shortly after the disaster and five to six years later. Specifically, we link predicted maximum wind speed at the community level to a pre-defined sample of households surveyed before the cyclone, allowing us to estimate impacts in the short run (within the same year) and the longer run. This design leverages rich pre-baseline data and province fixed effects to mitigate concerns about selection bias, displacement, and omitted variables that commonly complicate causal inference in disaster impact studies.

We find that greater cyclone exposure is strongly associated with short-run reports of shock experience and asset loss, validating predicted wind speed as a measure of disaster intensity. In the long run, however, households appear to recover from the immediate shock. Cyclone exposure is associated with persistent declines in reliance on agriculture as a primary livelihood and increases in small business activity and formal wage employment. At the same time, we observe mixed effects on asset ownership, with sustained declines in housing ownership alongside increases in durable asset holdings. Future work will continue to highlight how complex and heterogeneous pathways through which large-scale disasters reshape household livelihoods and economic behavior over time.

Soil testing

Soil tests provide farmers with information about the nutrient needs of the soil on their agricultural plots and can help farmers apply the optimal amount and type of fertilizer. Too little fertilizer can stunt plant growth and degrade the quality of soil. Conversely, too much fertilizer can become toxic to plants and generate environmental damage via chemicals leaching into nearby water sources or dissipating into the atmosphere. Applying the wrong type of fertilizer will fail to meet the nutrient needs of crops.

Plot-specific soil tests are needed because soil characteristics vary, even within local geographies. For this reason, several studies find that blanket recommendations and untargeted fertilizer subsidies are largely ineffective at meeting soil nutrient needs and improving yields.

Mastitis treatment in Karnataka: Results from a qualitative scoping survey

Bovine mastitis, inflammation of a cow’s mammary gland, is estimated to cost Indian dairy farmers approximately 1.5 billion US dollars each year through the reduction of milk production and quality (Banal and Gupta, 2009). Milk production may decrease by as much as 17.5% before any noticeable signs of infection are present (Krishnamoorthy et al., 2021), with even larger losses in the case of clinically observable mastitis (Singh and Singh, 1994). Prevalence of sub-clinical mastitis in India has been estimated at 42% and is increasing with warming global temperatures (Krishnamoorthy et al., 2021; Jingar, Mehla, and Singh, 2014).

Farmers in India typically treat animals for mastitis only once clinical signs appear, using broad-spectrum antibiotics that may accelerate development of resistant pathogens (Chauhan et al. 2018; Mutua et al., 2020). Diagnostic methods for mastitis are often expensive, time-consuming, and generally used for retrospective herd-level testing, limiting their effectiveness for preventing economic losses.

Strategic plan of the IFPRI program on fragile and conflict-affected food systems (FCAS): 2026-2029

Humanitarian crises are becoming more frequent, protracted, and complex. Fragility, conflict, climate extremes, and displacement increasingly converge to undermine food security, disrupt livelihoods, and erode community resilience across dozens of countries. In these settings, humanitarian actors face enormous pressure to deliver assistance in ways that are timely, inclusive, accountable, and aligned with the needs and priorities of affected populations. Further, governments demand evidence on what policies, programming, and other investments can support prevention, recovery, and resilience. In the current funding environment, global humanitarian financing is stretched thinner than ever, making improvements in effectiveness, efficiency, and quality of humanitarian actions all the more urgent.

The IFPRI Program on Fragile and Conflict-Affected Food Systems (FCAS) responds to these challenges by generating practical, policy-relevant evidence on what works to support food security and resilience in FCAS, with a focus on who benefits, under what conditions, and at what cost. Through long-standing engagement in countries such as Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Mali, Mozambique, Myanmar, Sudan, Papua New Guinea, Somalia, and Yemen, the Program supports governments, UN agencies, International Non-Governmental Organizations (INGOs), and local NGOs to strengthen food systems in fragile contexts and improve outcomes for crisis-affected children, women, households, and communities.

To make the Program’s rigorous research and evidence generation effective, it relies on deep partnership, local engagement, and a commitment to translating evidence into real-world change. Its work spans crisis anticipation and prevention; monitoring and crisis response; and recovery and resilience. It also considers two key cross-cutting areas: governance and accountability; and gender equality and inclusion. Across all of these areas, the Program advances locally-led approaches and elevates the voices and leadership of affected populations.

IFPRI’s institutional strategy and its four-pronged approach to research and impact guide the Program; its work in FCAS aims to: (1) position major development challenges on policy agendas, (2) build scalable high-impact solutions, (3) strengthen governance and financing mechanisms, and (4) deploy tools, methods, and capabilities for research and policy impact. The Program supports humanitarian systems reform by generating new evidence on effective program design features; exploring means of strengthening governance and social inclusion; and supporting coordination across humanitarian, development, and peace actors. This Strategic Plan outlines how the Program operates, what it contributes, and how it sustains a unique role for IFPRI within the global humanitarian ecosystem.

Lessons from the Digital Agricultural Advisory Services (DAAS) project in Ethiopia: Wheat use case

Agricultural extension services are a cornerstone of rural development and a vital instrument for policymakers to directly shape economic, social, and environmental outcomes in rural areas. These services aim to enhance farm productivity by promoting the adoption of agricultural technologies, inputs, and management practices. Through outreach, training, knowledge sharing, and learning, extension activities help bridge the gap between research and practice, potentially supporting more resilient and productive farming systems (Davis 2008; Jack 2013).

MSMEs and their role in encouraging sustainable healthy diets in Viet Nam

In this brief, we explore diet quality gaps in survey data collected in a transect of locations in Vietnam, including an urban district, a peri-urban district, and a rural district. We find that healthy foods are relatively underconsumed, at least among adolescents. We find that when households report purchasing most types of healthy foods, they buy them from MSMEs. Among types of healthy foods that are underconsumed, we find they are most commonly available at small groceries. Therefore, as Vietnam begins to implement policies to guide food systems transformation at the subnational level, it would seem worthwhile to target small groceries as a conduit for selling more components of healthy diets. De Brauw, Anh and Pham (2024) find that some business skills are particularly lacking among small groceries; for example, they find that very few small groceries have financial records, record sales, or have a written budget. Small groceries also lack access to finance. However, many of them also sell less healthy foods, such as refined grains (such as white rice), sweets, and sugar sweetened beverages. Therefore it is important to combine any business skills with nutrition education, to try to ensure that business owners do not use newfound skills to promote the sale of additional unhealthy products. There are several policy levers, existing at both the national and provincial levels, that could be used to help MSMEs sell more healthy products. However, it is important to monitor these policies to ensure that they are catalyzing food systems transformation towards healthy diets. With appropriate training and potentially additional finance, MSMEs selling healthier foods can be encouraged to grow and improve the accessibility of healthy foods.

The two sides of migration in Central America: Distributional impacts in Guatemala

International migration has become a defining force shaping Guatemala’s economy, with both outflows and return inflows generating diverse impacts across economic sectors, labor markets, and household welfare. This study quantifies the economy-wide and distributional impacts of these migration dynamics using a modeling framework that integrates detailed microdata on migration profiles. Three scenarios are considered: a reference case reflecting recent-historical migration patterns (MIG-0), moderately restricted migration (MIG-1), and net return migration (MIG-2), capturing newly emerging shifts in emigration and return flows by skill level within the country. Results reveal trade-offs between aggregate economic performance and distributional impacts across households. Compared to a baseline economy with no mobility, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rises modestly under the reference scenario (+0.2%) and by an additional 0.3-0.5 percentage points under the more restrictive cases, driven by higher labor availability from returnees and currency depreciation. Non-agro-processing manufacturing shows the largest expansion (up to 1.8%), reflecting its strong labor-absorption potential. Household welfare, however, is highly sensitive to remittance flows, with income and consumption declining under the restrictive scenarios. These findings underscore the need for policies that facilitate returnee reintegration and strengthen social protection for remittance-dependent households, ensuring that the macroeconomic gains from migration adjustments translate into equitable welfare improvements.

From vision to action (V2A): Advancing sustainable management of multifunctional landscapes in Akole, Maharashtra (India)

The Vision-to-Action (V2A) approach was developed to support inclusive stakeholder conversations to create a shared vision for a desirable future, develop holistic and medium-term transition pathways towards sustainable living landscapes, and define realistic, collectively agreed-upon concrete action plans that outline the behavior changes required to transition from their current situation to the envisioned future. It is designed to foster action that is multi-actor (e.g., producers, traders, enterprises, consumers, policymakers), multidimensional (e.g., agricultural, environmental, economic, social), and multi-scalar (e.g., farm, landscape, system) to realize sustainable food system transformation. This method structures conversations to allow stakeholders to discuss and agree about who, what, when and where to engage in the sought transformation processes. The V2A process and results also point to opportunities and entry points for responsive external support including by research-in-development partners such as the CGIAR Science Program on Multifunctional Landscapes.

Urban Food Environments and Diets (UFED) food environment assessment guidance

This guidance document is linked to the UFED web tool and meant to be shared in conjunction with use of an online decision-making tool for planning dietary and food environment assessments in urban and peri-urban areas.

Included documents:
Community and Market Mapping

In-Depth Vendor Assessment - Food Availability

Food and Beverage Promotion

Show me the money! Experimental evidence on preferences for cash vs. digital payment

In places such as rural Bangladesh, cash is the dominant medium for payments despite potential benefits of digital payments. We offer survey respondents an incentive-compatible choice for compensation: 200 Taka cash or randomly varied mobile money amounts (200-400 Taka). Only eight percent chose digital payment at parity and respondents exhibit an average willingness-to-pay of 43 percent of the payment value to receive cash payment. This preference persists across demographics, including among mobile money account holders. Within-household analysis reveals that 77 percent of the effect stems from individual-level rather than household-level factors, highlighting the importance of demand-side barriers on digital payments.

Combine harvester subsidies and agricultural mechanization in Bangladesh: Recommendations for reform

This brief summarizes findings from a recent report1 on Bangladesh's Phase III agricultural mechanization support program (2020–2024). The program distributed over 35,000 subsidized machines worth BDT 1,595 crore (USD 163 million). Combine harvesters (CHs) accounted for 84% of program value, making them the focus of this analysis. Drawing on administrative data, a survey of 979 Machinery Service Providers (including 400 CH MSPs), panel data from over 2,000 Boro rice-producing households, and 128 qualitative interviews, the report examines program impacts and identifies critical implementation gaps.

Urban Food Environments and Diets (UFED) dietary assessment guidance

This guidance document is linked to the UFED web tool and meant to be shared in conjunction with use of an online decision-making tool for planning dietary and food environment assessments in urban and peri-urban areas.

Included documents:
24-Hour Recall

Diet Quality Questionnaire

Food Frequency Questionnaire

Observed Weighted Food Record

How local leaders view transparency and local autonomy in humanitarian aid distribution: Evidence from Mali

Recognizing the pivotal role local governance plays in crisis response and the diversity of local conditions even within a single country context, this article examines variation in preferences over humanitarian aid delivery among local leaders in Mali. Drawing on qualitative fieldwork and a survey of 2,919 local leaders across the country, we investigate leaders’ preferences over two key dimensions of aid governance: local autonomy over targeting and distribution and transparency over aid delivery. Using aid profile vignettes to elicit preferences over these attributes, we find that leaders generally favor approaches that combine both greater local control and greater transparency, viewing transparency as complementary to autonomy rather than constraining. Preferences, however, vary by leaders’ position and by context: outsiders to aid governance demand more transparency, and leaders’ relative trust in local aid committees versus donors predicts preferences for autonomy. Leaders in conflict-affected villages place greater value on autonomy and less on transparency, highlighting how insecurity reshapes aid preferences in fragile settings.

How can community grants promote gender-inclusive development in fragile settings? Insights from rural Nigeria

Community-driven development (CDD) programs aim to shift decision-making to the local level by empowering communities to prioritize, design, and implement projects that address their most pressing needs. These programs have gained global traction as vehicles for service delivery and empowerment, especially in fragile contexts with weak state capacity. These programs leverage communities’ understanding of local needs and their unique ability to deploy resources in conflict-affected, unstable, or highly remote areas that are operationally hard to reach for traditional development programs. However, evidence remains limited on how to structure CDD programs to ensure inclusive participation from a wide range of community members, particularly women, who tend to participate in community and public affairs at lower levels than men in these settings (Takeshima et al., 2024).

Bridging the information gap: How Munda Makeover is transforming agricultural learning in Zambia

This project note presents midline findings regarding the effects of Munda Makeover (MMO), a farm makeover TV show designed to disseminate agricultural knowledge to Zambian farmers in an entertaining way. IFPRI and partners designed and implemented a cluster randomized trial across 160 villages involving two main interventions: village screenings of MMO episodes, combined with weekly SMS reminders to watch the show; and agricultural roadshows or input fairs. Results from a phone survey with 976 farmers show that community screenings and SMS reminders significantly increased viewership and knowledge around innovations promoted in the TV show. However, the uptake of agricultural inputs sold during the roadshows remains limited, largely due to liquidity constraints. These findings offer critical insights for optimizing the delivery of agricultural extension content through mass media and improving farmers’ access to agricultural inputs.

Digital tool integration, biodiversity, and the potato value chain in Kenya: Results from a baseline survey

Potato farmers in Kenya grapple with various challenges along the value chain, including limited access to quality planting materials such as seeds and fertilizers, insufficient storage and postharvest handling facilities, fluctuating market prices, and unreliable market information systems. For women and youth, these challenges are further exacerbated by persistent social gaps in the agriculture sector. Digital tools can play a vital role in addressing these challenges by providing access to valuable agricultural information, weather forecasts, and best practices that help farmers make informed decisions and improve crop management. However, challenges persist in digital tool adoption within agricultural value chains in sub-Saharan Africa. This study assesses the impact of digital tool adoption and support on socioeconomic and agriculture-related outcomes in Kenya’s potato value chain. It piggybacks on an ongoing digital tool integration program, Business Development and Coaching (BDEC), conducted by the Farm to Market Alliance (FtMA), which targets agripreneurs in Farmer Service Centers (FSCs). By comparing a treatment group that receives this training with a control group continuing business as usual, the study evaluates the effects of agripreneurs’ adoption and expanded use of digital tools on farmers’ agriculture based livelihoods, income generation, and job creation metrics, with a focus on youth employment and gender disparities.

Updating yield growth rates in the IMPACT model to enhance global analysis of the future of agriculture

Changes in yields of food commodities are key drivers—and consequences—of changes in agriculture and food systems. Simulation models used to explore the future of agriculture require initial assumptions about baseline levels and changes in yields as a starting point and then can be used to analyze how those yields are affected by the dynamic interaction between changes in demand, markets, technology, climate and other factors. This paper reports on how critical initial yield assumptions have recently been reviewed and updated in the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT). This paper is aimed at a technical audience interested in core details of the IMPACT modeling framework and is a follow-up to the latest full model documentation (Robinson et al 2024).

IMPACT was developed at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) at the beginning of the 1990s to address a lack of long-term vision and consensus among policymakers and researchers about the actions necessary to feed the world in the future, reduce poverty, and protect the natural resource base. Over time, this economic model has been expanded and improved, and IMPACT is now a system of linked models around a core multimarket economic model of global production, trade, demand, and prices for agricultural commodities. IMPACT supports integrated analysis of the implications of physical, biophysical, and socioeconomic trends and phenomena, allowing for varied and in-depth analysis on a variety of key issues of interest to policymakers. As a flexible policy analysis tool, IMPACT has been used to research linkages between agricultural production and food security at the national and regional levels. IMPACT also has been used in commodity-level scenario analyses and has contributed to thematic and interdisciplinary scenario-based projects. IMPACT is one of major global models of the agriculture sector, but because of its high level of commodity and geographic disaggregation, it plays a particularly important role in analyzing patterns of agricultural productivity growth around the world.

Potential commodity yields are key drivers in the IMPACT baseline scenario and an important lever influenced by investment and policy scenarios. The baseline assumptions about exogenous growth in crop and livestock yields are referred to in IMPACT as “intrinsic productivity growth rates” (IPRs). This paper describes the approach developed to review and update the IPRs to reflect recent trends and incorporate expert1 opinion, making the yield projections more transparent, inclusive, and efficient, and more consistent across CGIAR centers, improving projections and enhancing policy relevance. The remaining sections include a description of the IMPACT Model, the methods for updating the IPRs using projections based on FAOSTAT data and expert consultations, the findings related to the IPRs from each of the expert consultations, and a description of the process used to incorporate the findings from the consultations into IMPACT and concludes with discussion. A description of the Power BI tool used to support the expert consultations is presented in Appendix A.

Presentations for Shaping Food Policy in a Changing World: Research Priorities for Greater Impact

Realistic options for repurposing fertilizer subsidy spending

Worldwide, government spending on subsidies in agriculture, fishing, and fossil fuels amounts to a staggering $1.25 trillion annually. Subsidies play a significant role in every country’s fiscal policies, regardless of income level or spending patterns. Spending on energy and agricultural subsidies consistently accounts for 2%-3% of GDP on average across income levels and make the production and transportation of food cheaper.

Spending on these subsidies is coming under increasing scrutiny as governments struggle to mobilize additional revenue to meet important development targets amid rising debt distress, dwindling aid resources, and citizen protests against unpopular tax increases. One solution proposed by a growing consensus of voices is to repurpose expensive subsidies towards expenditures that generate higher development benefits.

While these subsidies aim to address low agricultural productivity, high food prices, and other critical challenges, their continuing predominance in food system investments raises important questions: Is this an effective way to spend public funds on such a large scale? If not, can some of the money currently going to subsidies be used to finance other needed investments (that may in turn make subsidies themselves more effective) and if yes, what type of investments can they fund?

This note explores these questions, focusing specifically on fertilizer subsidies, a major source of government support for farmers, especially in low-income countries, where they comprise a quarter of all subsidy spending (as well as one-tenth of such spending on in high income countries).

IFPRI’s research in fragile and conflict-affected settings

IFPRI’s research provides partners with support through a wide range of evidence and products: Decision-support tools spanning all phases of crisis and conflict: anticipating and preventing risks before they escalate, monitoring and responding during acute crises, and supporting long-term recovery and resilience. Context-relevant evidence on policies, programming, and interventions to address the unique challenges faced by FCAS—relevant for governments, UN agencies, NGOs, and other partners. Rapid-response policy support to address emerging challenges. Best-practice guidance for conflict-sensitive, gender-responsive policy designs.

Synopsis: The changing demographics in food systems and implications for future youth engagement in Rwanda

Food systems (FS) are critically important in sub-Sahara Africa (SSA), where they account for a significant share of the gross domestic product (GDP) and employment. Employment and job creation are strongly influenced by FS transformation, and they also help drive that transformation. This study documents the trends in FS employment in the past two decades observed in Rwanda, focusing on changes in the demographic structure and inclusiveness of FS employment.

Synopsis: Quantifying food losses in the beans value chain in Rwanda - Results from a baseline survey

Reducing food loss has become important, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, due to its direct impact on food security. Food loss also reduces producer incomes, increases food prices, and wastes natural resources, resulting in unnecessary greenhouse gas emissions. Most estimates of food loss have been heavily criticized for lacking sound methodological basis. This study uses a novel methodology to measure food loss and identify where it occurs along the beans value chain in Rwanda.

IFPRI Nexus SAMs: Annual release note 2025

The Nexus Project is pleased to provide an update on Nexus Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) developed and released by IFPRI in collaboration with national statistical agencies and research institutions in 2025. This Annual Release Note briefly overviews SAMs and the Nexus Project. It serves as a useful one-stop shop for obtaining links to all the latest versions of all Nexus SAMs.

Biofuels in India: Trading off climate mitigation with water security goals

Biofuels are recognized as a renewable alternative to fossil sources of energy like petroleum or gas. Liquid biofuels, such as bioethanol and biodiesel are blended with petrol or diesel and used for road, aviation and marine transport; they are expected to account for 6% of total renewable transportation fuel use by 2030. Biofuels can not only support a country’s mitigation goals; but also reduce the need for foreign exchange and support agricultural growth.

In India, 22% of total energy supply is provided by renewables, most of it from biomass for heating; while biofuels account for less than 1% of transportation energy. Over 90% of bioethanol and biodiesel are produced from food crops such as maize, sugarcane, soybeans, and vegetable oils, with sugarcane serving as the primary feedstock. As a signatory to the Paris Agreement on Climate Change and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), India submitted its Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) to the UNFCCC in 2022, emphasizing the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transport sector. Achieving this goal is supported, among others, by India’s biofuel policy of 2018 (modified from the original policy of 2009), which aims to achieve blending targets of 20% for ethanol and 5% for biodiesel by 2025.

Nudging farmers toward disease-free shrimp technology with financial incentives: Experimental evidence from Bangladesh

Price discounts are a common policy tool to promote agricultural technology adoption in low-income settings, yet their effectiveness may be limited when farmers face uncertainty or have access to familiar alternatives. We test this through a randomized controlled trial with shrimp farmers in southwestern coastal Bangladesh, a region highly exposed to climate shocks. The government promotes Specific Pathogen Free (SPF) post-larvae (PL)—certified as disease-free—to reduce high mortality in shrimp farming. Farmers were randomly offered varying discount levels for two SPF-PL types, differing in size uniformity and market price (proxies for quality), with the highest discount reducing their prices to parity with conventional non-SPF PL. We find no significant effect of discounts on adoption of the lower-priced Mid-grade SPF-PL, characterized by less size uniformity. In contrast, discounts significantly increased adoption of the higher-priced, more uniform Premium-grade SPF-PL, raising uptake by 10–19 percentage points among active shrimp farmers. Larger discounts did not yield higher adoption than smaller ones, indicating diminishing returns to discount generosity. Heterogeneity analyses reveal behavioral and contextual mechanisms: prior exposure to Mid-grade SPF-PL reduced its subsequent adoption but increased responsiveness to Premium-grade, consistent with experience effects and reference dependence. Cyclone exposure dampened treatment responses, suggesting capital constraints, while infrastructure preparedness (e.g., nursing facilities) enhanced uptake. These findings underscore that in high-risk agricultural systems, price incentives alone may not drive adoption unless the promoted input is perceived as effective. Successful promotion strategies must integrate quality assurance with attention to farmer experience, behavioral biases, and vulnerability to shocks.

Women’s empowerment and child nutrition in the Asia – Pacific region: Evidence from Papua New Guinea, Sri Lanka, and Timor-Leste

Adverse nutritional outcomes for children under five remain a significant challenge around the world, and there is growing evidence that women’s empowerment is associated with better children’s nutritional outcomes. In this paper, we analyze the association between women’s empowerment and the probability of stunting, wasting, underweight status, and achieving dietary diversity for children under five using a cross-country sample of Demographic and Health Survey data from three countries in the Asia – Pacific region: Papua New Guinea, Sri Lanka, and Timor-Leste. We construct the Survey-based Women’s Empowerment (SWPER) index as well as a slightly modified SWPER index using women’s reported experience of intimate partner violence (IPV) rather than attitudes toward domestic violence (employed in the original index). Our findings suggest that women’s empowerment as captured by the SWPER index is associated with a reduced incidence of stunting, wasting and underweight status and a higher probability that children achieve MDD, though this relationship is only weakly observed in Timor-Leste. In general, the index estimated using experience of IPV shows a clearer association with nutritional outcomes, vis-a-vis the index estimated using attitudes toward IPV.

Kenya: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Kenya’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) processors, irrigation, and seed subsidy are shown to be the most cost-effective at driving improvements in social outcomes, like poverty and undernourishment. They are also highly ranked in terms of expanding agrifood GDP and employment. Expansion in extension and advisory services for seeds and agronomy as well as improvements in seed systems also rank high. However, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, which highlights potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options overtime and when extreme production shocks occur.

Pakistan agri-food system assessment report

Papua New Guinea food price bulletin: October 2025

This report provides analysis of food price trends for the third quarter (Q3) of 2025, from July to September. The Fresh Produce Development Agency (FPDA) continues to collect prices from major markets despite recurrent logistical challenges to maintain consistent data for capturing, analyzing and informing relevant stakeholders. Due to insufficient data being collected from April to June (collected only for May across all markets and for April in Banz and Kokopo), no second quarter bulletin was published. This report compares prices in Q3 2025 with Q1, Q2 (with the available limited data) of 2025, and Q3 2024 to identify quarterly and year-on-year trends of prices. Prices are reported in PGK per kilogram and represent real prices adjusted for inflation using FAO Consumer Food Price Index (PCI) and price gaps (April to September 2025) filled using a growth rate calculated from the PNG National Statistical Office (NSO) - June quarterly PCI data. This bulletin focuses on selected important staples (sweet potato, taro, cassava, cooking banana and rice), vegetables (aibika, English cabbage, capsicum, carrot, and choko-tips) and fruits (lemon, orange, pawpaw and pineapple). For longer time series data and interactive tools, visit the IFPRI website and download food price data here.

What Indians eat, and how being unhealthy is easier and cheaper

Food companies must invest in affordable, culturally appropriate, healthy products matching Indian tastes and lifestyles. It requires a whole-of-society engagement.

From commitment to delivery: Implementation as the frontier for CAADP 3.0

Africa enters the third phase of CAADP under the Kampala Declaration—CAADP 3.0—at a moment of profound possibility and significant stress. A young population, urban growth, technological adoption, and vibrant entrepreneurial systems are powerful drivers of agrifood innovation and transformation. Simultaneously, the continent’s agrifood systems are being shaped by intensifying climate shocks, constrained fiscal positions, fragile macroeconomic conditions, political volatility, and persistent conflict and displacement. These pressures are deepening hunger and undermining livelihoods across large regions. Importantly, Africa has accumulated considerable institutional knowledge and practical experience in policy formulation, planning, and cross-sector coordination. Governments, farmer organizations, regional bodies, and development partners understand the challenges facing the agrifood sector with far greater precision than in earlier CAADP cycles.

The Kampala Declaration reflects this maturity. It is not simply another policy statement; it is a political signal that Africa intends to convert aspirations into meaningful, sustained action. The challenge is no longer conceptual clarity. The challenge is implementation. For CAADP 3.0 to fulfill its promise, countries must strengthen their ability to deliver consistently, at scale, and under difficult and rapidly changing conditions. This brief outlines the nature of that challenge and proposes a structured way to approach it, drawing from the November 2025 IFPRI webinar on strategic priorities for CAADP implementation.

Malawi’s agrifood system: Transformation and environmental impacts

This paper is an update of Country Brief 8 in the series of Agrifood System Diagnostics coauthored by De Weerdt et al. (2023). The important addition from the previous country brief is a new section assessing agriculture’s environmental footprint, focusing on water use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by subsector and over time. Unlike the previous version, this brief does not include a forward-looking analysis—using IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) model (IFPRI 2023)—of the contribution of productivity growth in agricultural value chains on agrifood transformation, employment, and socioeconomic outcomes. For a recent and extensive value chain ranking analysis that incorporates RIAPA modeling results, readers are referred to Pienaar et al. (2023).

Malawi experienced slow growth in the post COVID-19 pandemic period. In addition to the economic impacts of the pandemic itself, the country suffered from high levels of public debt and a sustained balance of payments crisis. Global events such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and adverse weather events such as Cyclone Freddy and the El Niño in 2023–2024 further prevented the Malawi economy from returning to pre-pandemic growth levels. Economic growth rates have dropped from an average of 4.1 percent in 2011–2019 to 2.2 percent since 2020 (World Bank 2025), with an average growth rate of 3.8 percent per year during 2009–2022.

2023 Social Accounting Matrix for Bangladesh: A Nexus Project SAM

The 2023 Bangladesh Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

Energy and macronutrient intake among women of reproductive age: Baseline findings from the FRESH End-to-End Evaluation

In Tanzania, unhealthy diets are a major contributor to non-communicable diseases such as obesity, hypertension, and diabetes. Tanzanian diets are generally cereal-based and low in fruit and vegetables (F&V) and animal sourced foods. With rising incomes, consumption of energy-dense processed and ultra-processed foods has increased, reaching 694 kg/year per adult in 2019. Among women of reproductive age (WRA), daily energy intake is also increasing. Although nationally representative data are lacking, individual studies indicate an increase over time from 1,347 kcal/day in 2014 to 1,631 kcal/day in 2015/16 and 2,174 kcal/day in 2022.

The CGIAR Research Initiative on Fruit and Vegetables for Sustainable Healthy Diets (FRESH), now under the CGIAR Science Program on Better Diets and Nutrition (BDN), uses an end-to-end approach, described in more detail in Research Brief 1, that combines demand, food environment, and supply interventions to increase desirability, affordability, accessibility, and availability of F&V.

In Tanzania, an ongoing impact evaluation is testing the effectiveness of this end-to-end approach in improving F&V intake and vegetable production across 33 villages in the Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions. In this research brief, we describe baseline findings on the energy and macronutrient intake among WRA in the study area.

Bridging Nigeria’s fertilizer supply-demand gap for agricultural transformation

Nigeria’s fertilizer sector exhibits a persistent disconnect between national supply and farm-level use. Despite rapid growth in domestic production and increased private-sector participation, fertilizer adoption among smallholder farmers remains among the lowest in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper examines the key drivers of Nigeria’s fertilizer supply–demand imbalance and its implications for agricultural transformation. Using national statistics, market data, and policy reviews, it identifies persistent barriers – including high distribution costs, inconsistent government policies, weak extension systems, limited credit access, and poor product quality – that constrain effective fertilizer use. It also assesses how export-oriented incentives and underdeveloped domestic markets influence local availability and pricing. The findings show that expanding production alone is insufficient to achieve meaningful agricultural change. Coordinated market reforms, stronger regulatory enforcement, improved delivery mechanisms, and targeted support to smallholder farmers are needed to improve affordability, access, and agronomic efficiency. The paper concludes with policy recommendations aimed at better aligning the fertilizer sector with Nigeria’s long-term goals for productivity growth and food system resilience.

Digital agricultural technology in Egypt: Insights from app developers

Digital technologies have rapidly reshaped agricultural systems worldwide, and Egypt is no exception. Over the past decade, the proliferation of smartphones, mobile internet, and low-cost digital tools has opened new channels through which farmers, traders, processors, and aggregators access information and services. Smartphone applications, websites, call centers, and SMS-based platforms now offer advice on crop management, weather and climate alerts, input and output price information, traceability tools, and digital marketplaces. For smallholder farmers—who make up the backbone of Egypt`s agricultural sector—these tools have the potential to reduce information frictions, improve decision-making, and increase productivity and profitability. For larger firms engaged in aggregation, processing, or export, digital platforms can streamline supply chains, enhance coordination, and improve quality assurance.

Gendered work norms in Egypt: Evidence on preferences and social perceptions

We examine the nature and scope of gendered work norms in Egypt using new experimental evidence from a household survey. Societal norms around work, care responsibilities and the types of jobs women and men can hold can have a profound effect on gender differences in employment, earnings and life satisfaction. Indeed, while lack of childcare and secure transportation remain widely cited constraints to women’s employment in low-income settings, descriptive and experimental evidence also suggest that deeply rooted social norms about gender roles play a prominent role in driving the persistence of such barriers and in how households evaluate women’s work. Norms emphasizing men as primary breadwinners and women as primary caregivers shape both economic decisions and perceptions of behavior in ways that may limit women’s labor force participation even when opportunities exist.

We implement three survey-based experiments among economically disadvantaged households to elucidate these norms and measure their salience. A wage‐comparison choice experiment shows that households strongly prefer that men—not women—take on additional paid work, even when this preference entails substantial forgone income for the household. When offered identical wages for equal hours of work, only 12.4 percent of respondents select the wife to take it as a first part-time job versus the husband taking it as a second part-time job. Even when her wage is double that of her husband, a clear majority still prefer that the husband works instead. These results indicate a large implicit cost that households place on women working outside the household.

Two randomized vignette experiments further demonstrate that identical actions are interpreted differently depending on whether they are performed by men or women. Men who take on a second job to support their financially struggling household are widely viewed as more competent and more moral, whereas perceptions of women making the same choice are far more divided. Perceptions of workplace effort are broadly similar across genders, with small differences appearing only in perceptions of morality. Together, these findings emphasize the strength of gendered work norms in Egypt and reveal nuance in how they shape behavior. The findings also underscore the relevance of gender norms for designing programs affecting household work decisions and testing new approaches to promote women’s economic inclusion.

The impact of genetically modified cowpea on yields, postharvest losses, and profitability in Nigeria: Findings from a cluster randomized controlled trial

We assess the impacts of a genetically modified pod borer-resistant (PBR) cowpea variety in Nigeria through a cluster randomized controlled trial conducted in two major cowpea-cultivating states. Our design allows us to examine the impacts of PBR cowpea with and without a package of complementary inputs (fertilizer and insecticides) and in comparison to farmers who received only a conventional improved cowpea variety. Results indicate that farmers who received and planted PBR cowpea experienced significant increases in yield (21 percent) and net margins (49 percent) compared to those growing the conventional variety, with larger gains observed among those provided with the inputs package. Analysis of heterogeneous effects indicates substantial variation in outcomes based on baseline characteristics such as household size, landholding, pest control practices, and wealth. Estimation of group average treatment effects and classification analysis using a causal machine learning approach identify plot size, pesticide use, and assets as key drivers of impact heterogeneity. Findings highlight the need for targeted dissemination strategies to realize the sizable benefits of PBR cowpea for small-scale, resource-constrained farmers.

Micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises and their role in sustainable healthy diets in Ethiopia

Ethiopia is working to transform its food system through a set of game changers that strive to change Ethiopia’s agricultural production patterns and to help improve consumption of under-consumed foods. The goal is to improve diet quality for Ethiopian consumers and households, which can only take place if consumers are more aware of what types of food to eat and if production of certain types of food can expand.

In collaboration with national partners, CGIAR collected and analyzed data collected in Ethiopia on consumers and businesses selling food to consumers within the same food environments. The goal of this exercise was to learn about what dietary gaps exist, the type of businesses selling those foods, and factors constraining MSMEs from selling more healthy foods. There were three aspects to the data collection that are pertinent to this note, all collected in Kolfe Keranyo and Butajira: a consumer survey, which included information about households, adolescents, and their caregivers (typically mothers); a food environment survey, which collected some basic information about all businesses that sold food, including the foods they sold; and a survey covering micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) that work in the food environment. The latter survey included detailed information about MSMEs to understand their role in providing food to consumers. In this brief, we describe highlights from that analysis, with an eye towards ways the analysis can inform actions taken to implement specific game changers that catalyze food systems transformation from a consumer perspective.

D4N2025 Presentation Showcase – Thematic Session 5A: Nutrition-sensitive agriculture: Pathways to more nutritious food systems

This work was presented as part of the conference, Delivering for Nutrition in South Asia: Towards Impact at Scale, which took place in Kathmandu, Nepal from December 2–4, 2025. D4N2025 funders include ANH Academy, CGIAR Better Diets and Nutrition, CGIAR Scaling for Impact, Heifer International, IFPRI, UN World Food Programme, and the World Bank.

Presentation 1: Crop Diversification with Nutrition Training Boosts Food Security, Income, Sustainability, and Agrifood Transformation in Rural Bangladesh by Md. Saiful Islam.

Presentation 2: Gender, Nutrition-Sensitive Agricultural Interventions, and Resilience: Evidence from Rural Bangladesh by Mehrab Bakhtiar.

Presentation 3: Linking Production Diversity, Commercialization, and Diet Quality: A Multi-Level Food Systems Analysis from South Asia by Mustafa Kamal.

Presentation 4: From Gardens to Growth: Implementation Research on Nutrition Gardens in Nand Ghars as Integrated Community Nutrition Platforms by Shoba Suri.

Presentation 5: Innovative Financing for Livestock in Bangladesh by Alan de Brauw.

Presentation 6: Impact of Home Gardening Support Provided to Refugees in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh by Pepijn Schreinemachers.

D4N2025 Presentation Showcase – Thematic Session 5B: Nourishing generations: Maternal & child nutrition

This work was presented as part of the conference, Delivering for Nutrition in South Asia: Towards Impact at Scale, which took place in Kathmandu, Nepal from December 2–4, 2025. D4N2025 funders include ANH Academy, CGIAR Better Diets and Nutrition, CGIAR Scaling for Impact, Heifer International, IFPRI, UN World Food Programme, and the World Bank.

Presentation 1: Reducing Nutritional Anaemia via Health Education, Supplements, Iron-Rich Diet for Women (19–45 years) in Madhya Pradesh, India by Neeta Shah.

Presentation 2: Mom’s Plate: Community-Based Cooked Meal Support to Improve Maternal Nutrition by Rajni Omprakash Wadhwa.

Presentation 3: Feasibility of Implementing Community-Based Maternal Infant and Young Child Nutrition (MIYCN) and Primary Health Care (PHC) Package in Bangladesh by Santhia Ireen.

Presentation 4: Evaluation of a School- and Community-Based Intervention to Promote Iodine Consumption and Healthy Eating Practices Among Women and Adolescents by Santosh Kumar Choudhary.

Presentation 5: Strengthening ICDS for Maternal Health: Scaling Nutrition and Chronic Disease Interventions for Lactating and Pregnant Mothers in India by Satyanarayan Kumbhakar.

Presentation 6: Functional Integration of Nutrition Interventions in Antenatal Package of Services in West Bengal, India – A Roadmap from Pilot to Policy by Sreeparna Ghosh Mukherjee.

Mozambique: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Mozambique’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. In Mozambique, investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) processors and traders are identified as the most cost-effective means of enhancing social outcomes, such as poverty reduction and addressing undernourishment. They are also highly ranked in accelerating agrifood GDP and employment. Moreover, extension services for livestock and agronomy, rural road infrastructure, and post-harvest losses reduction are also highly ranked. However, many of these cost-effective investments come with relatively high environmental footprints, which highlight potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options over time and marginally so in the presence of extreme production shocks.

The development potential of anchor enterprise models in Malawi

Smallholder-centered agricultural development strategies have had limited success in Malawi over the past several decades. Policy makers are now increasingly looking for alternative ways to accelerate agricultural and rural development. One emerging approach involves larger farms or agri-business firms partnering with smallholder farming households, in what we will refer to as an anchor enterprise model. Support for such partnerships is growing, but there is still little clarity on what they involve, what they aim to achieve and the conditions they need for success. Summarizing findings from a detailed report (Benson, Cockx, and De Weerdt, forthcoming). This policy note seeks to address these questions and provide guidance for future action. We structure our discussion around five questions: what the model is, when it can make sense, for whom it can work, how it can be implemented, and whether it can contribute to inclusive rural development.

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, November 2025

Retail prices of maize decreased in nearly all monitored markets by 6 percent on average in November. Sustained imports at steady exchange rates helped stabilize prices at a time when they would normally rise as peak lean season approaches. Imports dominated maize trade at all border points except Mchinji, which recorded exports to Zambia.

D4N2025 Presentation Showcase – Thematic Session 4A: Nourishing spaces: Homes, schools and markets

This work was presented as part of the conference, Delivering for Nutrition in South Asia: Towards Impact at Scale, which took place in Kathmandu, Nepal from December 2–4, 2025. D4N2025 funders include ANH Academy, CGIAR Better Diets and Nutrition, CGIAR Scaling for Impact, Heifer International, IFPRI, UN World Food Programme, and the World Bank. Thematic Session 4a: Nourishing Spaces: Homes, Schools & Markets

Presentation 1: Matching Intervention Packages to Local Food Environment Risk Profiles in Sri Lanka Based on a Theory-Driven Constrained Latent Class Analysis by Budni Hasanga Hewavidana.

Presentation 2: Cost and Affordability Analysis of Diets in Nepal: An Approach to Identify Affordability Gaps and Areas for Scalable Interventions by Krishna Lamsal.

Presentation 3: Home-Grown School Feeding (HGSF) Programme, Sri Lanka (2020–2025) by Mohideen Naina Marikar Mohamed Nusry.

Presentation 4: School-Based Strategies for Anaemia Prevention: A Qualitative Gap Analysis in Telangana by Naga Venkata Sri Sandhya.

Presentation 5: Scaling Digital Food Delivery Apps in India: Implications for Diet Quality and Obesity Risk by Suman Chakrabarti.

Presentation 6: Mapping Outdoor Food Advertising and Its Association with Adult Dietary Intake in South Asia by Petya Atanasova.

D4N2025 Presentation Showcase – Thematic Session 4B: Digital solutions for diets and nutrition

This work was presented as part of the conference, Delivering for Nutrition in South Asia: Towards Impact at Scale, which took place in Kathmandu, Nepal from December 2–4, 2025. D4N2025 funders include ANH Academy, CGIAR Better Diets and Nutrition, CGIAR Scaling for Impact, Heifer International, IFPRI, UN World Food Programme, and the World Bank.

Presentation 1: Empowering Communities via a Digital Quran-Based Campaign: Advancing Nutrition & Disability Inclusion for Health and Equity in Afghanistan by Rina Mattinson.

Presentation 2: Validation of an AI-Assisted Dietary Assessment Tool Among Adolescent Girls in Sri Lanka: A Step Towards Scalable Nutrition Monitoring by Nilmini Jayalath Karunarathna Hitihami Mudiyanselage.

Presentation 3: Digital Storytelling to Promote Healthy Eating: ‘Magic Creatures and the Nutri-Garden’ for Primary School Children by Thushanthi Perera.

Presentation 4: Mazboot Bunyad: Early Outcomes of Pakistan’s First Digital Nutrition Registry for Malnutrition Management by Wardah Ahmed.

Presentation 5: Digital Convenience, Dietary Consequences: How Online Transactions Drive Processed Food Consumption and Medical Expenditure by Zeeshan.